With the June 30 release of the banzuke approaching, it’s time for the Crystal Ball to weigh in. Scroll to the end if you just want to see the guess, and let me know what you think in the comments.

The named ranks

Onosato’s record-setting promotion to sumo’s highest rank has been confirmed, so we will have two Yokozuna on the banzuke for the first time since Aki 2021, when Hakuho retired immediately after Terunofuji’s promotion. We have to go back even further, to Haru 2020, for the last meeting between two Yokozuna (Hakuho and Kakuryu). Even though Onosato (14-1) outperformed the reigning Y1e Hoshoryu (12-3), I’ve opted to keep the latter on the East side, as the newcomer to the rank usually debuts behind the incumbents unless the difference in performance is extreme. Since two Ozeki are required, and we are down to one, Onosato will fill in as a Yokozuna-Ozeki on the banzuke (a role last filled by Terunofuji at Natsu 2023), with Kotozakura filling the sole O1e rank.

We will have three Sekiwake: S1e Daieisho (10-5) and S1w Kirishima (11-4), who both posted double-digit wins at the rank, and S2w Wakatakakage, whose 12 wins at Komusubi are sufficient to force open an extra slot. I’ve opted not to reorder Daiesho and Kirishima despite the one-win difference in performance, and I’ve placed Wakatakakage at S2w to balance out Kotozakura.

Wakatakakage’s promotion and the demotion of fellow Komusubi Takayasu (6-9) requires filling two Komusubi slots. Given that no one ranked M1-M5 posted a winning record, M6e Oshoma (10-5) is the obvious candidate for K1e. M9e Aonishiki (11-4) has the second-best claim and should make his sanyaku debut at K1w in only his third top-division tournament. Although this seems like an extreme over-promotion, Aonishiki’s rank and record in a vacuum corresponds to M2e, so it’s not a huge leap to Komusubi, and similar promotions have happened in the past when the rank needed to be filled. The alternatives I’ve seen proposed, such as not promoting Wakatakakage or keeping Takayasu at K1w, are really not something that’s ever been done in the past.

The rank-and-file

I won’t go through all the choices I’ve made, just the ones that don’t seem straightforward. I’ve placed Takayasu at M1e, which is a very lenient demotion, but there is precedent, including in cases like this banzuke when M1e went 7-8. Anywhere else, keeping someone in place after a 7-8 record is a perfectly reasonable option, but I don’t think they want to do it at the very top maegashira rank. So I have Wakamotoharu sliding over to M1w, followed by half-rank demotions for Oho and Abi. One could push the M8 duo of Onokatsu and Kinbozan, both 10-5, higher than M3, but they are getting their full 5-rank promotions, and their position outside the joi should mean they lose any tiebreakers.

Then we come to one of the tricky choices. M3e Tamawashi, M3w Hiradoumi, and M4e Takerufuji all finished 6-9 and will be placed on the banzuke in that order. All were in the joi. So where do we slot in M7e Hakuoho (8-7), whose rank and record place him in a virtual tie with Tamawashi? Anywhere from 4e (before the trio) to 5w (after them) would be defensible. I’ve gone back and forth on this—all historical precedent suggests Hakuoho should be ranked first, but the banzuke committee has shown a strong recent tendency to favor higher rank. I feel like I have to go with the evidence though, and opt for Hakuoho at M4e; if this is wrong, it will be an interesting data point for future banzuke.

The next problem spot is the ordering of M13w Sadanoumi (10-5), M2w Gonoyama (4-11) and M4w Ichiyamamoto (5-10). Sadanoumi ought to be one rank ahead by rank and record, but this hasn’t been enough recently to overcome preference in favor of the joi rikishi. And for those, I’d normally favor rank, but last banzuke’s placement of Ichiyamamoto ahead of Chiyoshoma is making me rethink this. So my guess has Ichiyamamoto-Gonoyama-Sadanoumi, but nothing would surprise me here, though I see little reason for Sadanoumi to be ranked between the other two. The M11-M12 ranks, where I’ve gone with Chiyoshoma–Tokihayate–Asakoryu–Midorifuji, could again see almost any ordering of this quartet.

And then we have to decide who is coming up from Juryo and where to place them. Despite his extremely impressive performance, I went with a conservative M14e placement for two-time Juryo champion J1w Kusano (13-2). In recent years, only a handful of wrestlers coming up from the second division have been ranked higher, so I don’t see the banzuke committee pushing him ahead of Shodai or Churanoumi. Then it gets tricky. As I mentioned in my banzuke preview post, I see J5w Wakaikari (12-3), J2e Hidenoumi (9-6), J1e Mitakeumi (8-7) and J7w Kotoeiho (11-4) joining Kusano on the way up, with M11w Shishi (4-11) just surviving in Makuuchi, though it would not be a shock if M16w Nishikigi (6-9) survived at the expense of Kotoeiho. The guys being promoted should be ranked in the order above, so it’s just a question of where to intersperse incumbents M14e Kotoshoho (6-4-5), M16e Kayo (7-8), and the above-mentioned Shishi. My choices here were heavily influenced by what happened on the last banzuke, where M10w Shonannoumi (4-11) ended up ahead of J2e Kayo 9-6, M10e Nishikigi (3-12) was placed ahead of J1e Tamashoho (8-7), and M16e Asakoryu (6-9) stayed ahead of J3w Tochitaikai (9-6). If the banzuke committee stays consistent (ha!), this should place Kotoshoho ahead of Hidenoumi and Shishi ahead of Mitakeumi (Kayo is locked into M16e).

We’ll find out how the rankings actually shake out a week from now.

Before the basho, I took a brief and highly selective look at some of the players in the Makushita promotion and yusho races. Now that the results are in, how did they fare?

Promotion Zone

Former sekitori and new bow twirler Ms1w Akua finished 2-5 and will drop out of the promotion zone. March champion Ms2e Oshoryu (2-5) didn’t fare any better, but Ms3e Otsuji won the yusho with a perfect 7-0 record and will return to Juryo, where he will try to improve on his 5-10 debut in March. Asakoryu’s little bro Ms4e Ishizaki (4-3) has now lost a final bout which would have clinched promotion for 3 consecutive basho, and will have to try again in July, probably from Ms1. Mongolian prospect Ms5e Kyokukaiyu (5-2) looks set to go up alongside Otsuji, although this isn’t a certainty. We’ll find out in a day or two.

Extended Promotion Zone

Fan favorite Ms10w Enho (3-4) posted the first losing record of his comeback. He looked so emotional after winning his final bout that it made me wonder whether it might have been the last of his career. Former Ozeki Ms14w Asanoyama failed to go 7-0, dropping a single bout (to Toseiryu), and will therefore spend at least one more basho in the third division, though at a high enough rank that a simple winning record in July may be sufficient for a sekitori re-promotion.

Other Yusho Contenders

Of the three Makushita 60 tsukedashi debutants, Gyotoku fared the best, going 6-1 and making it to the yusho semifinals. Interestingly, he is a college graduate, but did not participate in collegiate sumo, preferring to train with his high school sumo club and earning Ms60TD via corporate sumo. The other newcomers, Uruyama and Hanaoka, earned 4-3 winning records by the skin of their teeth. Our two successful Ms60TD March debutants from Fujishima beya continued to thrive, both finishing 6-1. Ms28e Goshima got to the quarterfinals of the yusho race, while his heya-mate Ms39w Fukuzaki made it all the way to the final. Fukuzaki is the first-ever high school graduate Makushita tsukedashi. Former sekitori Ms16e Kawazoe injured his ankle and picked up only one win. Promising division newcomers Ms45e Ikarigata (Wakaikari’s little bro) and Ms46e Goseizan both went 3-4, which ought to just keep them in the division.

My preview included half of the 8 quarterfinalists. I missed Ms8e Nishinoryu (4-3), who knocked Enho out of the race but lost his final 3 bouts, albeit to Otsuji, Asanoyama, and Kyokukaiyu. Let’s see how the 24-year-old fares in the promotion zone (I think) in Nagoya. I also missed low-ranked Chiyooga and Kototsubasa, but I am not expecting much from either in the future. A more notable miss is semifinalist Ms16w Gojinyu (5-2), who should be ranked either in or just outside the promotion zone. Gojinyu debuted at Sd100TD under his real name Kanzaki three years ago and promptly won the Sandanme yusho. He’s been in Makushita ever since, rising as high as Ms8 but so far failing to live up to his early potential. After his May performance though, I’ll be watching him closely, starting in July at what should be his highest career rank.

Chill, Andy, it won’t be so bad.

Let’s take our customary instant look at how the results of this basho are likely to reshuffle the rankings chart for the next one.

Sanyaku

We will have three Sekiwake: Daieisho and Kirishima, who both posted double-digit wins at the rank, and Wakatakakage, whose 12 wins at Komusubi are sufficient to force open an extra slot. Daieisho and Kirishima are at 19 wins apiece over the past two basho, so only an outstanding yusho-winning performance in July is likely to elevate either to Ozeki. Wakatakakage is at 21, so he might be able to get there with another 12-3 performance, though his 9 wins in March did come at M1. Oh, and the extra sanyaku rank means that M18e will disappear from the banzuke after lasting 2 basho for the first time since Makuuchi has been at its current size of 42 rikishi.

Wakatakakage’s promotion and the demotion of fellow Komusubi Takayasu (6-9) requires filling two Komusubi slots. M2e Abi (7-8) dropped out after his Day 15 loss to M6e Oshoma (10-5), leaving the latter in pole position for one spot. I have M9e Aonishiki (11-4) ahead of M8e Onokatsu (10-5) for the other. If this happens, Aonishiki will have accomplished a rare feat in going from top-division debut to the named ranks in three tournaments, following in the footsteps of such wrestlers as Onosato and Asashoryu (Ichinojo famously got to Sekiwake in his second Makuuchi basho).

Upper Maegashira

The M1-M5 ranks used to be known as “the zone of death” and “the meat grinder” after being frequently decimated by sanyaku opponents. While this often hasn’t been the case in recent years, the ranks certainly lived up to their reputation this time. The 10 rikishi ranked here posted exactly zero winning records for only the 11th time in the six-basho era, and one of only a handful that didn’t involve kyujo. They managed only 57 wins and 93 losses (though the Natsu 1971 crew managed a whopping 103 losses!). Several of the denizens of the zone of death did well enough to find themselves right back there in Nagoya: Wakamotoharu, Oho, Abi, Tamawashi, and Hiradoumi (plus Takayasu). Takerufuji, Ichiyamamoto, Gonoyama, Ura, and Chiyoshoma will rotate out, to be replaced in the meat grinder by Onokatsu, Kinbozan, Hakuoho, and Meisei.

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

M18e Tochitaikai (4-11) and M17e Tamashoho (4-11) were already fully booked on the Juryo barge before senshuraku. All the endangered rikishi lost today, leaving us with 4 more demotion candidates: M15w Shonannoumi (5-10), M15e Ryuden (5-10), M16w Nishikigi (6-9), and M11w Shishi (4-11).

On the Juryo side, everyone who needed to won. So in addition to yusho winner J1w Kusano (13-2), runner-up J5w Wakaikari (12-3), and top-ranked former Ozeki J1e Mitakeumi (8-7), we have 3 additional promotion candidates: J2e Hidenoumi (9-6), J7w Kotoeiho (11-4), and J7e Tomokaze (10-5). Tochitaikai, Tamashoho, and Shonannoumi will make room for the first trio. Hidenoumi should get the nod over Ryuden. Then it comes down to Kotoeiho vs. Nishikigi and Tomokaze vs. Shishi. My guess is that they’ll make the first of these exchanges but not the second, giving us five movements between the divisions, with exciting newcomers Kusano, Wakaikari, and Kotoeiho joining returning veterans Mitakeumi and Hidenoumi.

Juryo <-> Makushita

Champion Ms3e Otsuji (7-0) will bounce right back up, replacing absent J11w Wakanosho. Ms4e Ishizaki (4-3) lost his exchange bout to J10w Hatsuyama (6-9), while Ms4w Kotokuzan (5-2) won his against J13e Miyanokaze (6-9). These results mean that Hatsuyama is safe, while Ishizaki misses out on promotion with a last-day loss for the third consecutive basho. J14w Mudoho (5-10) is booked for an immediate return trip to Makushita, and will be replaced by Kotokuzan. The final spot in Juryo will go to either Ms5e Kyokukaiyu (5-2) or Miyanokaze. I think the Makushita man should get the nod here, but it’s not a certainty. We’ll find out about this decision (and Onosato’s Yokozuna promotion, of course!) in the next couple of days, but we’ll have to wait until June 30 for the rest of the rankings. Crystal Ball will weigh in closer to that date. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.

A quick update to yesterday’s scenarios, now that we know the outcomes of Day 14 action.

Sanyaku

Daieisho and Kirishima will be sekiwake again in July. They’ll be joined at that rank by komusubi Wakatakakage (11-3), whose 11 wins should by precedent force an extra slot. Komusubi Takayasu (5-9) is out. So we’ll have two open komusubi slots. Both of the top contenders lost today, which means that M1e Wakamotoharu (6-8) is out of the running entirely. The other leading contender, M2e Abi (7-7), can still return to sanyaku if he beats M6e Oshoma (9-5) tomorrow. Oshoma is guaranteed a komusubi slot with a win, which would also eliminate Abi from consideration. In that scenario, the pecking order for K1w would be as follows: 1. M9e Aonishiki (10-4), 2. M8e Onokatsu (9-5), 3. M8w Kinobozan (9-5), 4. M7e Hakuoho (8-6). The highest person on this list to win gets the spot, although I’m not sure Hakuoho with a win would pass Aonishiki with a loss. If Abi beats Oshoma, then Oshoma would slot into the K1w queue in a virtual tie with Onokatsu, so he could still get the spot provided Aonishiki and possibly Onokatsu lose.

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

M18e Tochitaikai (3-11) and M17e Tamashoho (4-10) are toast. M15w Shonannoumi (5-9) and M15e Ryuden (5-9) must win, and even that may not be enough to save them. M16w Nishikigi (6-8) is safe with a win but probably gone with a loss. M11w Shishi (4-10) is safe with a win, but would be on the bubble with a loss.

Yusho race leader J1w Kusano (12-2) and his sole chaser, J5w Wakaikari (11-3), have done enough for a top-division debut. Former Ozeki J1e Mitakeumi (8-6) also has an undeniable promotion case. J2e Hidenoumi (8-6) and J7w Kotoeiho (10-4) would stake promotion claims by winning on senshuraku, while J7e Tomokaze (9-5) must win and hope for a lot of other results to go his way. So we’re looking at a minimum of 3 exchanges and a maximum of 5.

Juryo <-> Makushita

In addition to champion Ms3e Otsuji (7-0) bouncing right back up and absent J11w Wakanosho going down, we now also have J14w Mudoho (5-9) booked for an immediate return trip to Makushita. Ms5e Kyokukaiyu (5-2) held serve by winning his final bout and placing himself second in the promotion queue for the moment. The final three spots in Juryo will come down to him and the participants in two exchange bouts tomorrow: Ms4e Ishizaki (4-2) vs. J10w Hatsuyama (5-9) and Ms4w Kotokuzan (4-2) vs. J13e Miyanokaze (6-8). If both Makushita guys lose, they’re out, the incumbents are safe, and Kyokukaiyu takes Mudoho’s place. If Ishizaki loses and Kotokuzan wins, Kotokuzan and Kyokukaiyu should be exchanged with Mudoho and Miyanokaze. Things get trickier if Ishizaki beats Hatsuyama though. Ishizaki would certainly go up, and Kotokuzan-Miyanokaze would be a straight exchange bout, but the last spot would come down to Kyokukaiyu vs. Hatsuyama, and it’s not clear how that would go.