Just the guess this time, no commentary, but let me know what you think in the comments. The banzuke comes out a week from today, a day later than usual due to the Emperor’s birthday.
Discover more from Tachiai (立合い)
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
I don’t see anyone who is obviously under ranked, looking for 12 wins from really low. Maybe Kinbozan? I wonder if Atamifuji will stay in sanyaku or yo-yo back down.
Two names jump out to me for a candidate for “a bunch of wins at a lower rank”: Tobizaru and Gonoyama.
Not sure yet about Atamifuji. This is his “make or break” basho or at least it feels like it.
Please forgive my ignorance. What does the “DK” mean next to Atamafuji?
Oops. “Atamifuji”
D means he lost in a play off and K means he got the Kanto-sho special prize (see the legend at the bottom at https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx)
i suppose its 準優勝 – second place and 敢闘賞 – one of three special prizes
The D means he finished runner up losing in a playoff (Jun-Yusho) and K is he received the Fighting Spirit Prize (Kanto-sho)
Ugh!! I didn’t put it on my calendar, so I missed the deadline!
I was identical down to M3;
After that:
Daisho/Ichiyamamoto switched at M4E/W; Kotoshoho/Abi switched at M6W/M7E; Chioshoma/Tobizaru switched at M13E/W;
For M15-M16 I had Fujisein, Mitakeumi, Kinbozan, Asahakuryu instead of Kinbozan, Mitakeumi, Asahakuryu, Fujisein; Perhaps my curse at guesses for Kinbozan continues;
Finally, I kept Ryuden so did not promote Fujiryoga. Obviously with a three way tie for those last 2 spots I should have paid more attention to their win/loss records.
In general I tended more to overpromote (Abi, Kotoshoho) than underdemote, so there‘s quite a difference from M4w on. From M10 until the end our guesses are identical except for Fujiryoga who I put behind Kotoeiho. And my usual extravaganza is to have Atamifuji overtake Wakamotoharu.
I think I’m getting better at trying to think like the committee and you, Leonid.
Agree with all down to M4 but swapped the Komosubi’s and M4’s.
I think Atamifuji’s showing deserves to put him on the East side ahead of WMH’s 8-7. Gotta agree with herbern there.
The East side of M5 to M8 could be a toss-up as to who goes where. I dropped Takanosho 5 slots and moved everyone else up one.
Same for M13 to M15 east and west. I have Tobizaru, Nishikifuji and Mitakeumi on the opposite sides.
Does Abi’s 10-5 deserve one more slot up than Fujinokawa and Oshoumi? I gave all three a 5-rank boost and let Onokatsu keep his spot.
I switched the new arrivals at M17.
This was a fun exercise this time. It left me wanting to push the guys at M1 up to K2, but couldn’t see pushing the rest up a notch to fill the void that would be left.
WTK got the short straw this time but will return to Sanyaku with a Kachi-koshi at Haru.
Wow – tough one this time. Looking on the positive side, I got some right – my proudest moment was almost getting Fujiseiun right (east-west swap away)..
My proudest moment was when I realized I was better placed than Iksumo… but then unfortunately it wasn’t because of a great guess of mine ;-(
Yeah, I can’t even bring myself to write a review post, as I still have no clue why they did what they did.
The theme seems to be go in calculated order and don’t demote the 1-loss guys whenever possible:
Starting at M1they go in order of calculated rank.
There’s a tie at M2 so Fujinokawa with the better Win-Loss record gets the nod.
Next is Hiradoumi then Daisho. But Daieisho cannot be placed higher than M4E due to the losing record. Next guy in line is Oho so he gets M3W.
Daieisho is next, keeping his M4E rank.
Next in rank order are Abi, Kotoshoho & Onokatsu. The latter cannot be placed above M6W so he slots in down there. But wait – Ichiyamamoto & Takanosho have a calculated rank just a half rank lower than Abi & Kotoshoho and they are joi guys. So for some reason Takanosho gets the next available spot at M4W. Why is he chosen over Ichiyamamoto – no clue. Maybe because he had 5 wins vs 4 wins for the Ichi guy? But wait – there’s no joi joy for Ichiyamamoto, so Abi & Kotoshoho get placed above him. Ichiyamamoto ends up 1.5 ranks lower than Takanosho – I cannot explain.
Oshoma keeps the 1-loss theme going by keeping his rank. Hakanofuji is next in line.
Ura, Shodai & Tokihayate are tied. They give Ura a joi bonus so he goes first. The next spot goes to Shodai because he has an inferior record Tokihayate (don’t ask me – I’m just the reporter).
Tamawashi & Gonoyama are tied and the nod goes to Tamawashi who had an inferior record to Gonoyama but was ranked 4 ranks higher in January. Gonoyama at M10E is the first 1-loss guy to actually get demoted. And I actually got him right this time!
Continuing in calculated rank order down to Tobizaru at M13E.
Fujiseiun gets placed at M13W which is generous compared to recent history which is M14W or M15E since 2021.
Returning now to calculated rank order down to Midorifuji at M15E.
Mitakeumi & Kinbozan are tied, with Asahakuryu just a half step behind. Mitakeumi gets the nod in order not to over-demote him with 1-loss. Asahakuryu is next with a winning record and then Kinbozan next with a very losing record.
Fujiryoga & Kotoeiho are tied so Fujiryoga gets the nod because of his superior record.
My guess is the ranking committee tried out it’s AI RankBot fresh out of development. Of course there were some hallucinations as seen above.
I guess your lengthy try to rationalize the banzuke shows that there isn’t much rationalism in play when the committee meets.
It was meant to be humorous. But yes it is fun to try to make sense out of things that do not make sense.
Sorry, I read your text only diagonally and missed the humour. My apologies.
The „AI RankBot“ is really funny. Simple little me only thought of rolling the dice as explanation for some of the ranks.
Does anyone know how it works – is there a Tachiai post on it? I mean, do the committee each submit a ranking and they do some math to figure out the mean placing? Or, do they sit in a room and start at the top and thrash out each position one at a time until they get to the end? Or do they wheel some old guy who looks like Yoda out from a darkened room, who then unfurls his honorable banzuke to the appreciative committee followed by a series of long bows?
This is a good explanation: https://tachiai.org/2023/06/11/nagoya-banzuke-crystal-ball-4/
Key part being: “While some insights can be gleaned from past banzuke, there are no clear rules, and banzuke committee decisions can be inconsistent from one banzuke to the next and even for similar scenarios within a given banzuke, possibly in part due to subjective factors that outsiders aren’t privy to.”
Pretty sure it’s the “sit in a room and thrash it out.”
I think it’s option 2, but it’s frustratingly hard to get any info about it. And as a Western sports fan, it drives me nuts that they’re not pressed by reporters to publicly explain their decisions.
This was my best guessing since my first one At Nagoya 2023. 20 bullseyes and 12 hits. I tied with herbern with total points but one more hit got me slightly ahead. Can’t believe I did better than the best guesser by rank (lksumo aka Reonito).
Takanosho definitely got a gift, dropping only 1.5 spots.
Now it’s on to Haru, and the rope run for Aonishiki, and the Ozeki run for Kirishima. Hoping success for both.
Congrats for beating me! No, that’s no big deal, but beating Iksumo and Asashosakari is great.
A pity we both had Atamifuji and Wakamotoharu swapped as we also had Fujiryoga and Kotoeiho, if I got U right. Where might we have landed without that?
4 points there; I did get both of those right, among my few correct choices.
I knew it would probably be wrong, but I still think that Atamifuji would have earned to overtake Wakamotoharu. And I guess that if there had been another vacated sekiwake spot, he would have got it over the henka brother.
We would have been much higher.
I had 5 ranks backwards – K, M1, M2, M14, and M17, with Daieisho and Tobizaru on the wrong side.
If I had made those slots correctly I might have made the top 10. And if you had also gotten the switched ones right you would have been up there as well.
I’m liking this more and more now that I am thinking more like the committee than I was before.
I think that’s the nature of the banzuke guessing: there are often a few half rank errors which sum up to a mediocre result, so don’t let us get too exited. The IF in „If I had them all just a little bit different, I‘d have won the basho“ is quite a big IF.
I’m still content with a kachikoshi though my goal may be double digits!
Is someone warming up the scandal counter? Seem to be some rumblings from Isegahama..
Hakunofuji’s heya change from bad to worse?
At least it seems that Terunofuji reported his violent conduct to the authorities himself.
There are a few things that I am waiting on: nature of the “violent conduct,” any punishment or changes to heya management, and Hakunofuji’s participation at Haru. I haven’t seen enough details.
Yeah, I tweeted a link to the Nikkan Sports article but I am waiting for more details and a bit of substantive news before posting. It could be a big nothing burger or retirements. There’s little indication at this point.