The September rankings just dropped. After a string of “unconventional” banzuke, the committee pretty much stuck to the usual guidelines and precedents, resulting in good prediction for the Crystal Ball. Really, the only thing my guess got wrong were the exact drops for the falling sanyaku members. I had K1e Oshoma (3-12) at M6w, while the committee (quite reasonably) pushed him down another rank to M7w. On the other hand, my guess placed absent S1e Daieisho (0-0-15) at M11w, while the committee was more lenient, ranking him at M10e. The cascading effects of these two errors led to several other incorrect placements at M6w-M7w and M10-M12; otherwise the guess was perfect. The only head-scratching decision by the committee was placing M10w Roga (7-8) ahead of M6e Takerufuji (5-8-2), who was both higher-ranked and deserved to be ahead by the usual banzuke math.
As expected, the Sekiwake got reshuffled, with S2w Wakatakakage (10-5) moving to S1e ahead of S1w Kirishima (8-7), who stayed in place. Let’s see if WTK can rack up the 11 wins he likely needs for an Ozeki promotion. The Komusubi slots went to Takayasu and (one basho too late) Aonishiki, which gives him the record for the fastest rise to the named ranks by someone starting from the bottom, two basho faster than Asashoryu, Konishiki, and Kotooshu—not a bad list to pass! The four clear promotions from and demotions to Juryo were confirmed, with Shonannoumi, Tomokaze, Nishikigi, and Ryuden returning to the top division to replace Endo, Chiyoshoma, Hidenoumi, and Kayo. There was some uncertainty about the final two spots, but as the Crystal Ball foresaw, J6e Hitoshi (10-5) was just good and lucky enough to earn a Makuuchi debut, while M17w Shishi did just enough to hang on to the final rung of the top-division ladder (M18e) by his fingernails.
With the rankings released, we are only two weeks away from the start of the Aki basho, with lots of exciting story lines to follow!
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Surprised they didn’t put Kotoshoho up higher given the precedents of yusho from the basement getting put at the top of the joi in the not too distant past (Tokushoryu and Terunofuji specifically).
I think the Kyokai will promote Wakatakakage with a 10 win performance since 33 is not a hard and fast rule and they are always nervous about having one Ozeki on the Banzuke when that Ozeki is shaky.
It depends on the context of the other records that deserve to be ranked in the joi. Takerufuji was the most recent lower M yusho winner, and went from M17 to M6.
WTK could go up with 10 for the reasons you say, though 10 in the 3rd basho of a run is the bare minimum, and 12-10-10 isn’t a super-impressive line. 10-10-12 would look better.
Only very tangentially related, but that issue came up in one of the game banzuke I handle recently, and I’ve come to realize that I like two 11’s and one 10 better than one 12 and two 10’s, simply because of the number of individual results that actually reached the “expected” mark. It’s making me wonder if that’s ever a topic in the real banzuke discussions.
You mean two 11’s is more rare?
Sort of, yeah. Fundamentally, I wonder if they’re thinking of the whole thing primarily in terms of “33 in 3” as the gold standard or rather “3×11”. To me, it feels preferable to have a greater amount of tournaments that actually hit the mark individually; 10/11/11 vs 10/10/12 is just the most borderline comparison for 32’s. Going to extremes, I think most people would agree that, say, 9/9/15 does not look like a credible promotion run even in hitting the 33 total.
One 15 would look as credible as nothing else
Interestingly, only two guys got 15-0 below ozeki, both at maegashira back in the 1950s, both topped out at sekiwake. It’s only been done 12 times at ozeki, and 64 at yokozuna (15 by Hakuho alone).
If I got it right, since 1958 there have been 20 ozeki promotions after less than 33 wins. 18 of them had the highest number of wins in the third, the decisive tournament.
A 9/9/15 run would absolutly most certainly and almost without the shadow of a doubt ascertain the ozeki rank.
Wakatakakage could make it on 10 with great sumo and those above him having a bad tournament. There is no huge need right now to promote anyone because they have two young healthy Yokozuna’s who can fill in for Ozeki’s as needed. All that changes if those at the top start looking weak. Personally, I have faith in him and think he is going to get 12+ and be a sure promotion.
Quite a slam guess in the Crystal Ball this time!
Asanoyama sekitori again. Kampai!
Wow, what a great guess! Where has it placed U at GTB? Has to be a „sanyaku rank“ surely.
I finished 10th in GTB according to their tie-breaker system, or in an 8-way tie for 5th by points. The winner had 71, then 3 guessers with 70, than 8 of us with 69. This moved me up to 5th in the overall rankings that keep track of the last 6 basho. There’s a guy who makes an unofficial GTB banzuke; I believe I was sekiwake going in, let’s see if I did enough to make Ozeki.
Ah, and I thought that maybe U were Leonishiki who now is 221st…
Sorry and congratulations.
Where do I find that GTB banzuke? I wonder if I am in makushita already.
Hahaha, thankfully not; I don’t think Andy would let me write the banzuke prediction posts otherwise! I’m Reonito; my lowest rank ever was 98, after my very first basho when I had 5 zeroes in my score. I’ve been in the top 10 for much of the past 6 years, with one yusho and several #1 rankings.
Look here: http://www.sumoforum.net/forums/topic/45077-invitation-to-play-gtb-september-2025-396-entries-results/?tab=comments#comment-543182