Given how cloudy the Crystal Ball has been recently, I hesitate to post a guess, but here goes anyway. Have at it in the comments.
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Aki Banzuke Crystal Ball
Given how cloudy the Crystal Ball has been recently, I hesitate to post a guess, but here goes anyway. Have at it in the comments.
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That’s a great guess. Very fair placements. Nothing seems out of place. I’m eager to see Aonishiki and Hitoshi promoted. I hope the latter actually happens.
The main difference between your guess and mine is the fall of Daieisho. I placed him at M7, but having checked the database I have to admit that U‘re probably much nearer to the mark.
Until M6 we’re almost identical, only the yusho winner is one rank higher with me.
M7 seems a little high, but anywhere from M8 to M12 wouldn’t surprise me.
Is Kusano going to leapfrog his way into the san. Or is he going to get crushed in the meatgrinder?
He should be ranked comfortably outside the joi and won’t face the top-rankers unless he’s doing really well after the first week. Given how solid he’s looked in his first 3 sekitori basho, I’d expect at least a kachi-koshi, if not double digits. Probably won’t get him to sanyaku, but maybe by January if all goes well?
I always enjoy seeing everyone’s guess logic.
Through M3 we are identical. At M4E, I guessed Hiradoumi after Kotoshoho. That’s a non-promotion for a +1 win/loss but I favored the higher rank of WMH and the outstanding performance of KSH.
The other big difference is that I am guessing Kusano, Ura, Takanosho and then Oshoma for M6E – M8E. Besides losing to everyone above him, Oshoma had 3 wins 11 losses against M1-M8 opponents. So I did not get excited about ranking him much above what he “earned.” Of course that means I over-promoted Ura.
Below that I guessed Kinbozan at M10E behind the Midorifuji, Fujinokawa, Churanoumi group. I guess I didn’t give him joi points.
Then on it’s mostly the usual half-rank differences.
I leaned hard into favoring dropping upper-rankers, which is what the committee has tended to do recently. A non-promotion for Hiradoumi would be nearly unheard of, when there are reasonable alternatives.
Each time I learn new lessons but forget the old ones :)
Glad to read that I‘m not alone… :-)
I was more harsh on Oshoma and more lenient on Ura. Which I guess is good news for the former and bad news for the latter!
Being Tamawashi or Abi I would be disappointed. Every 9-6 performer going up 3 ranks, Tamawashi got the same for 11 wins, Abi only one up. Sure there might be some kind of barrier before reaching Komusubi, but this feels a bit frustrating. But then, everything else seems well handled and in the right place, so – it‘s just the fuzzy end of the lollipop…
No room at the inn (or perhaps ryokan).
Five out of 13 times Tamawashi‘s result even brought the rikishi up to sekiwake and only two times it wasn’t enough to reach sanyaku.
I see 3 times that 11-4 at M4 wasn’t enough to reach sanyaku, but they’re the most recent 3 times that record was posted from that rank: Hokutofuji in 2020 and Takanosho and Takayasu in 2022 (I included M4e and M4w).
Well, yes, my wife has told me more than once (maybe three times?) that I wasn’t even able to count to three…
Kotoshoho likely could be promoted higher. Tokushoryu went from M17W to M2W after his 14-1 yusho and Terunofuji went from M17E to M1E after his 13-2 yusho on return from his long hiatus. A 13-2 from M15 would, you think, land him in the M1-2 range based on that.