Following Andy’s excellent breakdown of the yusho race, let’s take a look at the banzuke implications of senshuraku action.
Ozeki: Kotozakura has cleared kadoban and Onosato has 11 wins, which means we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. Daieisho now has 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho; one more, and we’ll have to start taking an Ozeki run seriously, although 12 wins at Natsu is going to be a tough ask. And of course, an Onosato yusho would trigger a tsuna run, although given the low winning score, it would have to be followed up by a yusho at Natsu: no “equivalent” is likely to do it.
Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-5) has successfully defended his rank. S1w Oho (6-8) will lose his, but can still limit his drop to Komusubi by beating [checks notes] M15e Aonishiki (10-4) on the last day. The young Ukrainian’s 21st birthday celebration tomorrow will be sweetened by a special prize. K1w Abi (6-8) will be a maegashira at Natsu; he gets to play spoiler tomorrow against yusho race co-leader M4e Takayasu (11-3). K1e Kirishima (7-7) will have to beat [checks notes again] M18e Tokihayate (10-4) to stay Komusubi. By reaching 8 wins at the top of the maegashira ranks, M1e Wakatakakage should definitely return to San’yaku, replacing Abi. The other men in contention for promotion to the named ranks are the aforementioned Takayasu and M1w Wakamotoharu (8-6). If Oho and Kirishima both lose, then it’s straightforward—the two maegashira fill their slots. Otherwise, we’ll have to consider whether their records are strong enough to force open extra slots.
Makuuchi/Juryo: The demotion of M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-12) is certain, and I don’t see any way M17w Shirokuma (5-9) can survive. M12e Takarafuji (3-11) would need a win and a lot of help from other results. Mitakeumi, Asakoryu, Ryuden, and Nishikigi ought to be safe if they win; none are paired up. We have three definite promotions: J1e Tamashoho (8-6) and J3e Roga (10-4) are set for an immediate return to Makuuchi, and J2e Kayo (9-5) will make his top-division debut after coming close in the past two basho. J3w Tochitaikai (8-6) and J5w Fujiseiun (9-5) can still reach promotable records by winning tomorrow. J6w Hidenoumi (9-5) is not completely out of the picture, and neither is J14w Kusano (13-1) if he can beat Fujiseiun.
Juryo/Makushita: Ms1e Miyagi (4-3) won his crossover bout with J8e Hokutofuji (3-11) and is guaranteed his sekitori debut. Ms1w Ishizaki (3-4) lost to Kazekeno, so he’s out of the running. The remaining promotion order is as follows: Ms2e Daiamami (3-3) if he wins, Ms4w Mita (4-2) if he wins, Ms3w Mudoho (4-3), Ms4w Mita (4-2) if he loses. The only certain demotion is injury victim J12w Kiryuko, who’ll be replaced by Miyagi. J14e Otsuji (5-9) faces Mita tomorrow in what is likely an exchange bout, and Daiamami will try to seal Hokutofuji’s demotion. Absent J2w Kitanowaka may be demoted depending on other results. Everyone else is safe. So we’ll have anywhere from one to four exchanges. The scenarios are complicated, and will be easier to go through after tomorrow’s results are known.
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Kayo of course is 9-5, not 8-5.
Hokutofuji‘s chances to stay in with a win seem quite good: in five from eight cases that meant J14 in the next basho.
It looks much worse for Otsuji: eight times out of nine a 6-9 from J14e meant Makushita.
Thanks, I fixed a few of the records that I didn’t properly update from yesterday’s post.
Given tomorrow’s matchups, Hokutofuji and Otsuji should both stay if they both win, and both go if they both lose. The one scenario I’m not sure about is if Hokutofuji loses and Otsuji wins
I don’t think there is a world in which Otsuji saves his Juryo rank. Thesingle ocassion when a 6-9 record at J14e didn’t lead to a demotion was January 2024, when there were only 4 promotable candidates in Makushita and 4 rikishi with 5-10 records from J12e and lower (one could question why Chiyomaru at J12e with 5-10 got demoted over Chiyosakae with 6-9 at J14e).
This time there are already 3 promotable records. Hokutufuji can probably save his rank with a win. since 2000 in 6 of 9 cases 4 wins from J8e stayed in Juryo.
The interesting part is Kitanowaka. Will he go down or not.
I think if he beats Mita, there’s a good chance he stays. The precedent says it’s not a requirement to drop him, he ought to be ahead of Mita, and Kiryuko, Kitanowaka, and Hokutofuji if he loses might all be demoted ahead of him, making room for the other 3 promotable records.
Are U really sure he would overtake Kitanowaka with that win?
Ah, he lost anyway, we‘ll never know now.
Something went muddled up here with Mita, too.
I saw the Miyagi – Hokutofuji bout. Miyagi had not a single look for Hokutofuji, who fell from the dohyo and seemed to damage his already damaged knee a little bit more. Miyagi didn’t even take notice of the wheelchair, who was luckily not needed in the end. He just stood there staring to the ceiling and waiting for the gyoji’s acknowledgement. I really don‘t know what some of these very young people think about themselves and their environment.
The double mention of Mita is intentional; he’ll be ahead of 4-3 Mudoho in the promotion queue if he wins tomorrow to go 5-2, and behind him if he loses to finish 4-3. I’m pretty sure he’s out of the promotion conversation if he loses, but since he’ll be kachi-koshi in the promotion zone, I left that in.
Yes, got it now :)
onosato just won the basho , i assume he is going to get yokozuna status soon ?
reading the article above and it says that another good natsu basho run will give him the yokozuna status , so what information is there after todays basho win ?
If he gets the yusho at Natsu, he’ll be promoted. If he gets a runner-up finish, he’ll probably need a 14-1.
Hoshoryu just got promoted with 13-2 J and 12-3 Y. So you are now seriously suggesting that 12-3 Y and 13-2 would not be enough for Onosato who has now won 3 championships of the last 6 bashos?
Hoshoryu was probably only promoted because Terunofuji had retired and there would have been no Yokozuna. That’s the difference to now.
So, funnily a 13-2 without the yusho wouldn’t suffice while maybe even a 11-4 yusho could be enough!
It would not surprise me if Terunofuji retirement played a part in the decision to promote Hoshoryu. However, Hoshoryu’s 2 championships happened with 1,5 years apart. Onosato’s 3 championships have happened within the past year, which looks like Yokozuna frequency of championships to me.
Besides the main reason for lack of promotions of Ozeki to Yokozuna with 12-3 Y and 13-2 without yusho in the tournament prior or after the championship, is that there are only 2 times when this situation has actually happened: Hokutoumi 1987 and Hoshoryu, who were promoted to Yokozuna.
The latter statement is made with the provision that we can trust what SumoDB search gives us:
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&n_basho=3&form1_rank=o&form1_wins=12&form1_y=on&form2_rank=o&form2_wins=13&form3_highlight=on&form3_rank=y
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&n_basho=3&form1_rank=o&form1_wins=13&form2_rank=o&form2_wins=12&form2_y=on&form3_highlight=on&form3_rank=y
Takakeisho 12-3 J 13-2 Y is similar.
How about looking at what has happened to 12-3 without yusho and yusho with 13-15 wins in next tournament
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&n_basho=3&form1_rank=o&form1_wins=12&form2_rank=o&form2_wins=13-15&form2_y=on&form3_highlight=on&form3_rank=y
compared to 12-3 Y with 13-15 wins in next tournament
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&n_basho=3&form1_rank=o&form1_wins=12&form1_y=on&form2_rank=o&form2_wins=13-15&form3_highlight=on&form3_rank=y
Then the other choice yusho with 13-15 wins and 12-3 without yusho in next tournament
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&n_basho=3&form1_rank=o&form1_wins=13-15&form1_y=on&form2_rank=o&form2_wins=12&form3_highlight=on&form3_rank=y
compared to 13-15 wins and 12-3 Y in next tournament
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&n_basho=3&form1_rank=o&form1_wins=13-15&form2_rank=o&form2_wins=12&form2_y=on&form3_highlight=on&form3_rank=y
It does not look like 12-3 J 13-2 Y is treated the same as 12-3 Y 13-2 J, does it?
Absolutely. The order matters.
So how do you explain Hokutoumi 12-3 Y and 13-2 J in 1987 leading into Yokozuna promotion?
How about finding actual cases of Ozeki not promoted to Yokozuna when they got 12-3 Y and 13-2 J.
I don’t consider anything before 1990 relevant in the current environment.
Very good point: there are no such cases; and there had been already two Yokozuna when Hokutoumi got his promotion.
All this shows how incredibly hard the committee was on Takakeisho in Iksumo‘s example!
You want harsh? https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&n_basho=3&sum_wins=27&sum_range=2&form1_rank=o&form2_rank=o&form3_rank=o&columns=3
What happened to Takakeisho is the way they seem to have always done this: 12-3 without yusho means nothing when looked in terms of two consecutive tournaments. Go and look at the SumoDB search results in the other comment. I was surprised to see that 12-3 Y and 13-2 J is really different from 12-3 J and 13-2 Y.
You have to search for results that are the same or better than the ones in question, not just exactly the same ones. As my other comment shows, they’ve denied 14-1 Y, 13-2 J/D twice.
Wow, Iksumo, those are really unbelievable!
To me that smells a lot like purely arbitrary.
I‘m glad Takanohana, Musashimaro and Hakuho did it still somehow a little later on…
The point is, they really changed the standards after Futahaguro so that nothing short of YY would do. This was relaxed by the time Kakuryu was promoted, but (Hoshoryu aside, and there were plenty of special circumstances), they haven’t considered the types of runs that would have been common before 1990.
To Iksumo:
Kakuryu, Kisenosato, Terunofuji and Hoshoryu would not have been promoted, if the thinking that denied Hakuho with 14-1 Y and 13-2 J still applied.
Therefore I do not see why one should bias the thinking by restricting to only cases from 1990 onwards.
That’s fair, it’s true that we’re not in the same place as in the 1990’s & early 2000’s, but that doesn’t mean we’re in the pre-1990 environment either.
Since 1990 no one has been promoted to Yokozuna with 25 wins over two basho except for Hoshoryu:
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&n_basho=3&sum_wins=0&sum_range=2&show_sum=on&form1_rank=O&form1_year=%3E1989&form2_rank=O&form3_rank=Y&sort_by=sum_wins
At the same period many rikishi with 25 wins (and ten rikishi with 26 or 27 wins) haven’t been promoted:
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&n_basho=3&sum_wins=25&sum_range=2&show_sum=on&form1_rank=O&form1_year=%3E1989&form2_rank=O&form3_rank=O&sort_by=sum_wins
It seems that the distinction between Hoshoryu‘s and the other 25 wins cases is that there would not have been a Yokozuna if they had denied him the rope…
Was Hoshoryu publicly on a rope run at the beginning of Hatsu Basho? Yes. Did he win the yusho? Yes. Is 25 wins over two basho any kind of official criteria or metric for determining Yokozuna promotion? No. What are the official criteria? Two consecutive yusho or yusho-equivalent performances at the rank of Ozeki. He met the criteria. We are one tournament into his reign. Is he expected to win every tournament? No. Is he expected to show up for every tournament? Hey, that’s an upgrade from the previous office holder, but no. Should he retire in disgrace because Haru didn’t go well? No. Is your point to lay claim to Hoshoryu being the worst Yokozuna ever? I would say that the jury is still out on that and will be until he retires. Lord knows, Kakuryu had plenty of people saying he wasn’t worthy. Kisenosato and Harumafuji, too.
I agree that we are not completely in the pre 1988 period. No promotion has happened with 0 yushos in either of the two tournaments before promotion. Unless we start seeing such a promotion, I do not expect to see one. But the situation is not the draconian 2 yushos in a row either. The situation is somewhere between these extremes.
We’re also dealing with a small sample size. We’ve had 7 promotions in 25 years. Of those, Kakuryu would have waited four more years for promotion and only earned it after yusho #5. Kisenosato and Terunofuji had jun-yusho included. We’re in a post-Konishiki, post-yaocho, post-manslaughter, post-COVID, post-Hakuho era but the criteria are not dramatically different or overly diluted. Hoshoryu is Yokozuna. He’s won titles, which is better than Futahaguro, I just don’t get what the debate is about. If people are jonesing for a Nokozuna era, we basically had that for long stretches of the Terunofuji era.
Who are U addressing, Andy?
Anyway, this discussion is not even about Hoshoryu or his worthiness. He only turns up because he made Yokozuna with 25 wins.
And the one million dollar question was now: would 25 wins also be enough for Onosato? Even without a second yusho?
Your comment. As I said, I guess I don’t understand the point. It’s not about number of bouts. It’s about yusho. If it takes 11 wins, it’s 11 wins. If it’s zensho, it’s zensho. If Onosato doesn’t claim a yusho in May (or something that can be considered yusho-equivalent, like Kakuryu’s 14-1 playoff loss) he won’t get it.
Now U‘re with us.
That equivalent your mentioning, could that also be a 13-2 jun yusho? That’s the question Askoj asked yesterday at 5:49 pm.
And that’s all.
Dear Iksumo, I‘m asking U this as one of the query specialists: Onosato won his third yusho in eight Makuuchi basho; (how) can I find out if that’s a first? It would take OR-conjunctions, but that’s not possible, is it? Thanks.
Yeah unless I’m missing something, hard to see how to do that without manually or computationally post-processing db results. I looked at a few obvious suspects, and none of Hakuho, Asashoryu, and Takanohana even came close.
You can manually ask for a yusho 1,2, … 7 basho within Makuuchi debut; pretty sure Onosato is the only one who shows up twice (#3 and #5).
I‘ve done just that and there are only four other rikishi with a yusho in their first seven 15 days Makuuchi basho; and, as U guessed, not one of them appears more than once.
No need to stop at 7, btw. 😉 The query code itself supports values that the frontend does not.
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_m=on&form1_debutd=on&form2_y=on&form2_m=on&form2_basho_nr=8
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_m=on&form1_debutd=on&form2_y=on&form2_m=on&form2_basho_nr=9
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_m=on&form1_debutd=on&form2_y=on&form2_m=on&form2_basho_nr=10
etc.
Nice! And this opens up all sorts of other code query possibilities!