Congratulations to Onosato on his unprecedented 3rd yusho in just eight top-division tournaments. With the March results in the books, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how they are likely to reshuffle the rankings for May.
Ozeki: The championship by Onosato heralds the start of a Yokozuna run. There’s a wide range of opinions on what result he needs for promotion, aside from the fact that it has to be a yusho or a jun-yusho. Personally, I favor the hypothesis that any yusho (even an 11-4) will do it, but that the relatively low total of 12 wins this time means that a second-place finish will suffice only with 14 wins. Kotozakura’s 8-7 finish means that we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. With 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho, Daieisho could be said to be on an Ozeki run, but 13 wins at Natsu is going to be a tough ask.
Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-6) and K1e Kirishima (8-7) have successfully defended their places in the named ranks. S1w Oho (6-9) will drop out of san’yaku, as will K1w Abi (6-9), so we have to find two rikishi to fill their spots. I have Kirishima as the leading candidate for S1w, although a case can be made for M4e Takayasu (12-3). If he doesn’t leapfrog Kirishima, Takayasu should be ranked K1e, with M1e Wakatakakage (9-6) bouncing right back up to K1w. His brother, M1w Wakamotoharu (9-6), posted the same score from the same rank, but because he was ranked on the West side, he’ll probably just miss out, unless the banzuke committee decides that he’s done enough to force open an extra Komusubi slot.
Joi Maegashira: These are the 9 to 10 rank-and-filers who are expected to face a full slate of san’yaku opponents, barring withdrawals of course. Assuming he doesn’t make Komusubi, Wakamotoharu should be a lock for the top maegashira spot. He should be followed, in some order, by the two san’yaku dropouts, Oho and Abi, plus upper maegashira with losing records that won’t drop them too far—Gonoyama, Chiyoshoma, Ichiyamamoto—and those with winning records from sufficiently high ranks—Tamawashi, Hiradoumi, Takerufuji, Oshoma. Tobizaru and Ura should fall just outside these ranks, while the likes of Hakuoho, Churanoumi, Onokatsu, Aonishiki, Midorifuji and Meisei won’t rise quite that high.
Makuuchi/Juryo: The four leading demotion candidates, in order, are M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-13), M17w Shirokuma (5-10), M12e Takarafuji (3-12), and M17e Mitakeumi (6-9). Two others are in some danger: M10e Nishikigi (3-12) and M16e Asakoryu (6-9). Four Juryo rikishi have rank-record combinations that warrant promotion, and should replace the four incumbents above: J3e Roga (11-4), J2e Kayo (9-6), J1e Tamashoho (8-7), and J3w Tochitaikai (9-6). Two others are on the border: J6w Hidenoumi (10-5) and the yusho winner in his sekitori debut, J14w Kusano (14-1). I’d say three exchanges are certain, and while I wouldn’t put the odds of Mitakeumi surviving at the expense of Tochitaikai at zero, I consider this highly unlikely. My current guess is that Nishikigi and Asakoryu will just barely get to stay, but it would not shock me to see one or both replaced with Hidenoumi and/or Kusano.
Juryo/Makushita: The benefit of posting this a couple of days after the basho is that we don’t have to guess, at least on the promotion side, since these are announced immediately after the banzuke meeting so that the new sekitori can start preparing for their elevated status. Going up are Ms1e Miyagi (4-3), Ms2e Daiamami (4-3), Ms4w Mita (5-2), and Ms3w Mudoho (4-3). All but the former maegashira Daiamami will be making their Juryo debut. The corresponding demotions are not announced, but based on the records, we know that they are injury victim J12w Kiryuko (2-5-8), J14e Otsuji (5-10), absent J2w Kitanowaka, and top-division stalwart J8e Hokutofuji (3-12), unless he opts to retire.
The rankings will come out on April 28. Time permitting, I’ll have a full Crystal Ball post closer to then. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
