Congratulations to Sekiwake Onosato on his second Makuuchi yusho in just his 5th top-division tournament! The star collegian’s record-breaking start to his professional career, which began only in May of last year, includes a record of 90-29, zero make-koshi, and 8 special prizes! He won’t have a chance to add to that total, as his performance ensures his promotion to Ozeki, the fastest on record.
Now that the results are in the books, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how they’re likely to reshuffle the rankings chart for November.
Sanyaku
Absent Terunofuji will continue to occupy the Y1e rank. O1e Kotozakura (8-7) and O1w Hoshoryu (8-7) finished with identical records and will maintain their ranks, and the latter’s victory over the former on Day 15 means that neither will be facing demotion in November. And they’ll be joined at Ozeki by our Aki champion.
We had an embarrassment of riches with four Sekiwake. One retired (Takakeisho), one earned promotion, and one finished 5-10 (Abi). So only Kirishima (12-3) will remain at the third-highest rank, moving up to the top East position, and he should be joined on the West side by K1e Daieisho (8-7). With one Komusubi slot open via promotion, and the other via demotion of K1w Hiradoumi (7-8), we need two replacements. M3w Wakamotoharu (11-4) has a clear claim on K1e. Whom to put on the West side is less clear. Little bro M7e Wakatakakage (12-3) has the best numerical case, but M4e Shodai (10-5) faced a stronger schedule, as did M2w Oho (9-6), who also beat Shodai on Day 15. I need to take a closer look at who has the advantage here. With 1 Y, 3 O, 2 S, and 2K, sanyaku will shrink by one rank, meaning that M17w will be back on the banzuke for the first time since January.
The first three maegashira ranks will be filled, in some order, by Hiradoumi plus whichever two of the trio above miss out on Komusubi. And despite the shrinking sanyaku, the rest of the joi isn’t too hard to fill out this time.
Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges
Takakeisho’s retirement opens up one bonus spot in the top division. I hope that injury victim M16e Shirokuma (4-9-2) will be sufficiently recovered to mount a strong comeback in Juryo. He should be joined there by M11w Kagayaki (3-12). That’s three normally certain openings, although after the decision to keep 6-9 M17e Nishikifuji last time, I am no longer certain of anything. And we have three strong candidates to fill these openings: J1e Chiyoshoma (10-5) and the J2 duo of Tokihayate and Shishi, both 9-6. I for one have looked forward to Shishi’s top-division debut ever since I first saw him battle Hokuseiho for the Jonidan yusho exactly four years ago.
From here, things get more complicated. We have three other Makuuchi rikishi with demotable records: M16w Kitanowaka (6-9), M12w Kinbozan (4-11), and M12e Bushozan (4-11). The next three best records in Juryo belong to champion J11w Takerufuji (13-2), J8e Asakoryu (11-4), and J5w Hakuoho (8-7). Only Takerufuji is promotable by the numbers, although Asakoryu just barely misses by half a rank. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll bring up Hakuoho. One likely scenario is that Takerufuji trades places with Kitanowaka and they call it a day. They could keep Kitanowaka and drop Kinbozan instead, although higher rank argues in Kinbozan’s favor, or drop both of them and bring up Asakoryu, which I think would have been more likely if that didn’t mean demoting one M12 with 4 wins and keeping the other.
I think I’ll call it here and leave the Juryo-Makushita exchanges for a separate post; boy, is there a lot to talk about! Let me know what you think in the comments.
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Kinbozan lost that possible elimination fight against Shishi on day 15, therefore he is my first choice of the three uncertain candidates for a fall. He‘d make place for Takerufuji.
The last rikishi to have been promoted from J8e with an 11 to 4 was Tokushoryu. His case was even weaker than Asakoryu‘s is now, I think. Based on that little evidence I expect the lightweight to be promoted, too. And though the numbers of Kitanowaka are very slightly worse than Bushozan‘s I somehow get the feeling that the latter will have to go. As U wrote that would mean to handle both M12 equally, which I would like.
I,d love to see Asakoryu get the jump up..but i think he’s a slow riser and it may not be the time yet….
I would give K1w to Oho because he had a really tough schedule and he beat Shodai.
But I don’t have the impression that the JSA has been considering such aspects very much lately. Therefore my guess is that they will promote Wakatakakage instead. His maths are the best and he won against Onosato, while the two others lost. I think that win made quite a stir.
Definitely bring up Takerufuji to make the Kyushu basho a lot more interesting. Say goodbye to Aoyama after a long, somewhat strange career. And looks like we’ll have 5 dropdown from Makuuchi.
And just when I was starting to like Takakeisho. And only 28, but he did start early and his 4 Yusho career is, without the big promo is impressive.
What is the rule on filing the Sanyaku? There have been tournaments w/more than 2 in Komusubi & Sekiwake, including this one. So shouldn’t that open up slots for the Waka brothers, Oho & Shodai?
Retirements, apart from Takakeisho: It’s time for Mitakeumi, due to his great record and current dullness. And Asanoyama. Great wrestler, had a nice career, but he’s so delicate. Time to leave, rather than go thru the Makushita trip again?
There pretty much have to be at least two sekiwake and two komusubi, but any more than two is discretionary and usually requires specific scenarios. Like, we had 4 S this time because all 3 incumbents got winning records in July, and Takakeisho was dropping down from Ozeki. There are no circumstances this time that demand more than the nominal 2 and 2 (and it’s perfectly normal to leave qualified candidates out just because there are no openings), although the committee has a lot of discretion in what it chooses to do.
“which I think would have been more likely if that didn’t mean demoting one M12 with 4 wins and keeping the other” – is that really a consideration? It didn’t seem to me it has been, but probably not paying attention!
The other super unlikely factor that didn’t get mentioned here is that actually they could keep 17E as the bottom rung and promote both Oho to KW and Wakatakakage to K2E given his 12 wins. It would make Kitanowaka’s flimsy case to remain even less plausible and also ensure that Hiradoumi doesn’t get over-demoted.
My gut tells me based on watching these decisions over the years though, that Oho will go up over Wakatakakage and they’ll stick the latter at M1E… but they’ve surprised us before.
I also would lean towards them elevating Takerufuji
The common sense solution would be to simply promote everybody to komusubi who has a good case for it. Oho and Shodai put up credible numbers against full joi schedules, and WTK has the pre-injury track record and confirmed through his Aki performance that he’s finally back to something resembling that shape. But then, I’m much more of a “put rikishi in position to succeed, not to fail” proponent than the current banzuke committee, so of course it won’t happen.
I not only fully agree with U, but I‘d go even further and give Hiradoumi a K3 slot, which would keep him in Sanyaku but still have him lose two positions (from number 9 on the banzuke to number 11). And, of course, I‘m only daydreaming!
Then I’ll need to add that the corollary to my aforementioned statement is “a rikishi who was put in a position to succeed but failed needs to be penalized accordingly”, so the idea that Hiradoumi should get to stay komusubi with a makekoshi is completely alien to me and pretty much the opposite of what I would consider a common sense solution.
But U do understand that there is a difference between K1 and K3, do U?
And remember, U‘re the one who wanted Daieisho to lose a place after an 8 to 7 in the previous basho! Therefore I‘d say U‘re no stranger to unconventional ideas. And common sense is a very shaky construct anyway…
Wether it’s K1 or K3 (and why K3 if you only have 4 Komusubi), he would still retain his Sanyaku rank despite a makekoshi. Not only does that have financial implications, but it would also potentially block promotions next basho as you can’t artificially inflate the ranks everytime.
There isn’t a single case for a K1W to stay in Sanyaku with 7wins in the 6 basho era and there are very rare cases for a K1e, when there were no promotion worthy records. This time we have too many and not too few, so why give special treatment to Hiradoumi?
If Hiradoumi is meant to stick in Sanyaku, he will return. The worst he will end up is M2e, but he could easily fall to M1e as we,,.
I know that all. That‘s why I called my idea a daydream. It was only a little bit wilder than Asashosakari‘s four Komusubi slots, against which all that U said is also applicable.
No doubt there are some perks to being promoted to komosubi, but getting an easier fight card in the first week of the next basho isn’t one of them. The schedulers treat them exactly the same as the upper Maegashira. So I won’t be too upset if one of my favorites doesn’t make it.
There’s actually a negative, you can’t get a kinboshi, though there’s so seldom a Yokozuna around these days it’s hardly an issue.
Technically Bushozan was a half rank higher than Kinbozan, so (with identical records) if one of these stays at M17 (in case they bring up Asakoryu) it should be Bushozan. No?
Oh, definitely.
Bushozan was non-competetive the entire last week… others figured out if you stop his initial tsuppari and get up close, he has no other tools… at least Kinbozan has some identifiable sumo skills which make for more enjoyable bouts
But they can’t take that into account in deciding between them—one of the few absolute rules is that a lower-ranked rikishi can’t pass a higher ranked one (even if it’s only east vs west) with the same (or better) record.
Against Sanyaku: Oho 5-3, Shodai 2-4, Wakatakakage 2-0 (with a big win over Onosato)
I don’t think there is enough of a logjam in the upper maegashira to have four Komusubi. Although, since there should only be one space at M1 (Hiradoumi should get one spot), they could possibly go with three Komusubi. See the logjam going from November 22 to January 23: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202211
This is my first attempt at bansuke guessing, so I am having fun.
It seems to me that Hiradoumi ends up at M2E, because he has Wakatakakage, Shodai & Oho ahead of him. Two of those three guys are going to end up at M1, so M2 is it for Hiradoumi. It’s a big price to pay for 1 loss, but one has to account for the winning records of the other three guys.
I will then put Shodai at M1W, even though he is theoretically a half-point above Oho.
Wakatakakage & Oho’s kamis can fight it out for who gets K1W/M1E.
My first bansuke attempt too. Big WTK fan and super happy he’s back in shape. That being said, in the upcoming banzuke rankings based on the strength of opponents faced and record considerations should be Oho, WTK at K1e & K1w, Hiradoumi M1e, Shodai M1w, WMH M2e. I don’t think Hiradoumi should drop any further as he had a typically tough K slate of opponents; never gave up. Looking forward to seeing WTK and Hirad. facing off in Kyushu. U think this sounds reasonable?
I’ll be surprised if WMH is that far down; the other 4 are tricky to order
Thanks for the post Iksumo – I always enjoy reading your well reasoned posts based on facts, experience and knowledge!!!