It’s already the end of act 1, and it’s been a fun and exciting tournament so far. The team at Tachiai break the 15 days of the basho up into 3 fifteen day “acts”, each of which seem to have their own goals and purpose. In act 1, the goal is to remove the ring rust, and determine who is hot, and who is not.

The Hot List: Hoshoryu, Abi, Onosho, Aoiyama, Kotoshoho

From this list, Hoshoryu is the one to watch. Do I think he will finish 15-0? No, but it is possible. The big test will be into week 2, where we get to see if he can hold focus, assuming he is still on the hot list.

The Not List: Kotonowaka, Meisei, Oho, Chiyoshoma, Okinoumi, Chiyomaru

This list features rikishi who are hurt, or simply having a cold start. The name that stands out to me is Oho. He had a blazing 10-5 result from Kyushu, and has yet to find his first win. I hope that he is not hurt, as that would be a shame.

What We Are Watching Day 5

Ichiyamamoto vs Tsurugisho – Ichiyamamoto has not lost to Tsurugisho in any of their six prior fights. Both are 2-2, and I expect that Ichiyamamoto will continue to confound the 200 kg bruiser today. Both are 2-2.

Chiyomaru vs Kotoeko – Chiyomaru (0-4), part of the Not list, is hurt. That bandaged right foot and ankle tell his story all too plainly. Unable to really move at all, and compounded by his enormous mass, Chiyomaru is easy meat at this point. Kotoeko at 2-2 could use the win.

Kotoshoho vs Mitoryu – This is 4-0 Kotoshoho’s best start since is debut tournament in the top division in July of 2020, where he finished act 1 with a 5-0. I have had my eye on him for some time as a rikishi with the potential to be a mid to upper Maegashira main stay. He faces 2-2 Mitoryu who looked very strong day 4 against a resurgent Takarafuji. They share a 2-2 career record, thought Kotoshoho won their only match in 2022.

Azumaryu vs Okinoumi – A battle of the 35 and over club, I have to wonder if maybe dear Okinoumi (0-4) is about ready for his haircut. Saddled with chronic injuries, he shows up and competes to the best of what he has left, but increasingly he’s going through the motions. He has won 2 of the prior 3 against 3-1 Azumaryu, so maybe today is the day he rallies.

Takarafuji vs Tochinoshin – Twenty six career matches between these men, with Tochinoshin (2-2) on top 15-11. Takarafuji (3-1) looks like he simply made a bad choice in his day 4 loss to Mitoryu, and I would like to see him give Tochinoshin a double scoop full of frustrating defend and extend sumo today.

Kagayaki vs Hiradoumi – Both rikishi are 2-2, and they share a 1-1 career history. Their prior match was in Kyushu on day 6, and went to Kagayaki. Kagayaki’s sumo has been all about fundamentals for the longest time, but it seems that most of his opponents have figured him out. He also seems to have switched to preferring to attack high rather than center mass. I think this could be the key to why he went from a reliable mid-tier Maegashira to bouncing around the bottom of the top division and into Juryo.

Chiyoshoma vs Endo – Chiyoshoma (0-4) might be frustrated with his sumo. He has been fighting well, but has yet to win his first match. He had a 7-8 make-koshi for November which dropped him a half rank, but he seems to be off to his worst start since July of 2020, where he finished 6-9. Given how he seems to be a paper tiger right now, I expect 2-2 Endo to be able to best him and pick up a much needed 3rd win.

Aoiyama vs Oho – I think the schedulers are having a bit of fun here. We have 4-0 Aoiyama, part of the “hot list” up against 0-4 Oho, part of the “not list”. They have split their prior two matches, the last one was oh Kyushu day 10, and went to Oho. But given how poorly he is fighting now, and how well Aoiyama is doing, this may not be much of a contest.

Takanosho vs Ura – Both being the day at 2-2, and neither of them are fighting in anything close to normal style. I expect Takanosho to be more dominant, and ranked much higher. Likewise Ura seems to be a little cautious, and has not really deployed his “grab and tug” sumo much this month. The last two matches, both of which went to Takanosho, were won by oshitaoshi.

Ryuden vs Onosho – Will 2-2 Ryuden try to pull Onosho in the first two steps? The answer may determine if he stands a chance of winning this match. Onosho tends to have hot and cold basho, this one will likely be scored as “hot” at the end of senshuraku. His last 4-0 start was a year ago, and he ended that tournament 10-5.

Hokutofuji vs Sadanoumi – Sadanoumi (1-3) got the denshamichi treatment from Nishikigi on day 4, and I don’t like his chances against 3-1 Hokutofuji today. Sadanoumi has only won a single match against him in 6 tries. However, his sole win was day 1 of the prior tournament, in November.

Nishikifuji vs Nishikigi – A battle of the “Nishiki” rikishi, it pits 2-2 Nishikifuji vs 3-1 Nishikigi. (Nishiki means brocade, by the way). They share a 3-4 record, with only a single match in 2022, which Nishikifuji won on day 1 of Kyushu by yorikiri.

Myogiryu vs Midorifuji – Myogiryu has had some bad luck so far this basho. At least one match featured him losing by losing traction, or as Kintamayama calls it “Slippiotoshi”. On day 4 he goes up against 2-2 Midorifuji, who has won all 3 of their prior matches. Both men lost their day 4 matches.

Mitakeumi vs Wakamotoharu – To me its sad watching Mitakeumi (2-2) right now. Like a man who has suffered some kind of tragedy, he just seems a bit lost. I wonder if we will ever know what hobbled his sumo and caused him to lose his Ozeki rank. His day 3 loss to Hoshoryu stopped his win streak, and day 5 I don’t like his chances. He has lost both prior matches to Wakamotoharu (1-3), who tends to package and control Mitakeumi, robbing him of any real attack lanes.

Kiribayama vs Tobizaru – Hey, Tobizaru (1-3). Time to settle into the basho and start fighting like it matters. He has lost 2 in a row, and is starting to look sloppy. Hopefully he can use his 8-5 career advantage over Kiribayama (3-1), and find his second win today.

Meisei vs Shodai – Shodai (1-3) got his first win on day 3, and I wonder if we may be in for a long dry spell before we see his next. Having a dominant career history like 9-4 over winless Meisei (0-4) is no guarantee of a result right now, as Shodai seems completely disrupted by.. something.

Takayasu vs Kotonowaka – Also in the former Ozeki with one win group is dear old Takayasu (1-3). I have dropped all expectations for him this January, and just hope he can get his kachi-koshi. The scheduling team has given him a bit of a gift here, pairing him with winless Kotonowaka (0-4), whom was only beaten Takayasu once in 4 attempts.

Daieisho vs Hoshoryu – For now, any match featuring Hoshoryu is going to be must-watch sumo. Daieisho (3-1) seems to be a bit more potent every day, and if he can set up his “mega-thrust” can put his opponent several rows back on the zabuton. But he has a 2-4 career lost record against white-hot Hoshoryu at 4-0, and is the defacto man to beat for the lead right now.

Wakatakakage vs Abi – Right behind Hoshoryu in terms of potential for this January is November yusho winner Abi. Also at 4-0, his 1 ½ dimensional sumo works most of the time, and when he can set it up, it is tough to overcome. He shares a 2-2 record with 2-2 Wakatakakage, who is still struggling to get on a path for something better than an 8-7 kachi-koshi.

Tamawashi vs Takakeisho – 19 Matches between these two, with Takakeisho holding a 12-7 lead over Tamawashi. Both men are 3-1, and both can push you so hard your eyeballs might fall out. I will be watching to see who can connect something at full power into the other one’s body first.