Welcome back to Tachiai’s daily coverage, we are just hours away from the start of the 2023 Hatsu basho, and it is likely to be a wild ride through 15 days in the middle of January. With Yokozuna Terunofuji out, its up to Ozeki Takakeisho to take on the role of being the man to beat for the cup. But with just one Ozeki, and no Yokozuna around the promotion lanes are wide open, and that should lead to some aggressive and powerful sumo from the ambitious rikishi looking to lock in higher rank.

I think most sumo fans are going to keep an eye on Wakatakakage, who may not get a better chance to set up his next Ozeki run. Ideally he can forego his typical cold start, and just begin the basho with dominant sumo, rather than waiting for the middle weekend. I do not expect Shodai to be able to rack up 10 wins this tournament, and he may follow Mitakeumi and end up make-koshi and be demoted out of the named ranks.

Out this January at the start: Ichinojo due to suspension, and Terunofuji due to injury / recuperation.

What We Are Watching Day 1

Takarafuji vs Chiyomaru – I have no idea how Takarafuji is still in the top division, yet there he is. Clearly the man has been diminished since last summer, and if he cannot find 8 wins this January, this may be his last top division basho for some time. He’s against the last man on the banzuke, Chiyomaru who has returned from Juryo for another tour of Makuuchi. He has only won one match against Takarafuji, but given Takarafuji’s expected condition, that may not count for anything.

Tsurugisho vs Mitoryu – After a one tournament visit to Juryo, Tsurugisho decided he had had enough, turned in a 10-5 record and returned to the top division. He has not had a top division make-koshi since July of 2021, so he has his work cut out for him. Mitoryu, his opponent, has likewise just returned from Juryo for his second attempt to reach 8 wins as a Maegashira. Tsurugisho has a slight career advantage.

Azumaryu vs Kotoeko – Kotoeko has been struggling as of late, with four consecutive make-koshi scores to end 2022. He always fight with a lot of energy, but as of late has not been able to muster enough power to actually win. Azumaryu had a 7=8 result in his first tournament in the top division in almost 3 years, but retained his rank of Maegashira 14W to try again this month. Kotoeko holds a 6-2 career lead.

Kotoshoho vs Ichiyamamoto – Kotoshoho’s last kachi-koshi was in March of 2022, but has somehow managed to stay nearly the same rank for most of a year. Now Maegashira 13E, he’s against Ichiyamamoto on day one, who tends to start well but quickly fade into the second week. Ichiyamamoto holds a narrow 5-3 career lead.

Kagayaki vs Okinoumi – I have been a booster of Kagayaki in the past. Then he spent all of 2021 without a winning record for any of the 6 tournaments. Since then he has spent a fair amount of time in Juryo, and hopefully he has his body ready to fight for Hatsu. His day 1 opponent, Okinoumi, continues to compete late in the top division late into his career. But it is true his trend line is headed for Juryo. They hold a 7-7 career record.

Chiyoshoma vs Tochinoshin – Every time I think Tochinoshin is too hurt to continue, he rallies and soldiers on. He’s been ranked in a narrow band between M7 and M9 for much of the last two years, and maybe that’s about where he fits with his current injuries. He’s not fared too badly against Chiyoshoma, who holds a 5-3 career lead against him.

Aoiyama vs Hiradoumi – I was surprised and impressed by Hiradoumi’s sumo in November, and I would love to see if he can come close to repeating his 10-5 performance. After a strong start, they gave him some mid-Maegashira ranked opponents in week 2, and he proceeded to beat quite a few of them. Like the other grizzled veterans on todays torikumi, Aoiyama is trending his way slowly but surely towards Juryo and an eventual exit from the dohyo. As part of the mid-30’s crowd, the accumulated injuries have significantly limited his sumo in the last 6 months. They have split their 2 prior matches.

Takanosho vs Endo – I could call this one “the battle of broken dreams”. Both of these guys are popular with the fans, but have been struggling with their sumo. In the past two years, Takanosho has had a pair of 11-4 tournaments, and whole lot of crummy basho. Today he finds himself at M9E, the rank he held in November where he ended up 7-8. His opponent, Endo, is… well, Endo.

Onosho vs Oho – Kyushu 2022 is the basho where Oho finally started to show us the kind of sumo we knew he was capable of. He faded quite a bit in the last week, winning just 3 of his last 7. But prior to that, he was a sumo machine, and I do hope we can see more of that this month. He has won both of his prior matches against Onosho, who is almost always out in front of his toes.

Ura vs Myogiryu – Ura turned in a disappointing 4-11 in Kyushu, and really looked injured most days. His fans hope that he was able to get himself in better condition, and is ready to fight with more speed and agility for Hatsu. Myogiryu won their only prior match, which was Osaka of 2017. Oh how much has changed since then.

Hokutofuji vs Nishikigi – What on earth is Nishikigi still doing in the top half of the banzuke? If you answered that he was kachi-koshi in November, you would be right. This guy had earned my respect, he’s not the most gifted rikishi, but it’s clear he puts his heart into his sumo, and he keeps working until he wins. I wonder if his opponent, Hokutofuji, will once again deliver “The most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo” this January (as he did in November).

Nishikifuji vs Ryuden – After winning the Jun-yusho in September from Maegashira 12W, the banzuke committee put him at Maegashira 6, to see if he could swim. He answered with a respectable 9-6 kachi-koshi, and now finds himself at Maegashira 5, in the thick of the roughest part of the schedule. He’s up against powerhouse Nishikifuji, who has turned in 10-5, 10-5, and 9-6 since his top division debut in July of last year.

Sadanoumi vs Midorifuji – Sadanoumi has struggled to gain rank, in spite of achieving winning scores. A 9-6 in September moved him from M5 to M4, and an 8-7 in November saw him left at the exact same Maegashira 4 West rank as he held in Kyushu. Such is the chaos of the banzuke right now. His opponent, Midorifuji, was over-promoted in September to M1W, but managed to only have a 7-8 losing record. Like Sadanoumi, an 8-7 result from Kyushu saw him receive the exact same M3W rank he held last tournament.

Abi vs Kotonowaka – Now we get to the bigger matches, we see the November yusho winner, Abi, attempt to start off with a win. he has a 1-1 record against Kotonowaka, who in the named ranks for the first time. Given how Kotonowaka has been improving, I expect this will be a long term home for him. If not now, later this year. They have split their 2 prior matches.

Kiribayama vs Tamawashi – As tough a fighter as Tamawashi is, Kiribayama holds a commanding 6-1 career record over him. The September yusho winner, Tamawashi could do no better than 6-9 in Kyushu, and was dropped from the named ranks down to M2W for Hatsu.

Mitakeumi vs Shodai – When the torikumi group set up this match, I am sure they were into their 3rd bottle of sake. “Why not have one de-frocked Ozeki fight the other on day one?”. It’s a damn jolly fine idea. I don’t relish either of these men’s current situation. But one thing I love about sumo is that for the most part it is a zero sum game. Win or get demoted. They have a 30 match career record that narrowly favors Mitakeumi 16-14.

Takayasu vs Daieisho – I want to see if Takayasu can start with another hot steak. His last two tournaments have seen him go 6-1 in week one, and should he do that again, we can look forward to double digits for the former, and maybe future, Ozeki. He has an 11-5 career advantage over Daieisho, who puts all of his faith into powered up “mega thrust” sumo that should leave his opponent, or himself, off-balance and out of the match.

Tobizaru vs Hoshoryu – Tobizaru’s first posting to the named ranks (Komusubi 2 East) in November was a bit more than he could handle, resulting in a 7-8 make-koshi. Back in the rank and file, he is perfectly placed to disrupt the hopes of a number of kanban rikishi, starting with Hoshoryu on day 1. He is fairly even with him (6-7) of the course of their career, with them trading the last 2 wins.

Wakatakakage vs Meisei – I am looking to see if Wakatakakage can avoid his traditional “cold start” and being Hatsu strong. I am certain he wants to put together another Ozeki bid, so he will have 10 or more wins for January as his goal. He has a 6-3 career record over Meisei, and has won 4 of the last 5.

Wakamotoharu vs Takakeisho – What a delightful match to end the day. Yotsu specialist Wakamotoharu against the lone surviving Ozeki, oshi specialist Takakeisho. It will likely come down to who gets the first hit.