Kyushu Day 15 Preview

So we come to it at last, the final day of the final basho of 2022. What a year it has been, and we have much to enjoy on this final day. Darwin matches, the final battle for the cup, the special prizes and some lucky rikishi is going to get an awkward yusho interview.

2022 will be recorded as a year where 6 different rikishi won the yusho, no man taking the cup twice. This underscores that there is no one strong enough to dominate this group, and that the sumo world waits for the next champion to arise. Further evidence is provided by the spate of Darwin matches today, where two 7-7 rikishi face of in a single match elimination. The winner gets the winning record, and the loser goes hope with a demotion.

Kyushu Leaderboard

Takayasu controls the outcome. Stay in the ring, stay off the clay and you take home that cup at long last. As I have said since week 1, watch for Takakeisho, who if he gets the chance will be tough to stop. It will be up to Abi to put dirt on Takayasu, a feat he has accomplished several times.

Leader: Takayasu
Chasers: Takakeisho, Abi

1 match remains

What We Are Watching Day 15

Aoiyama vs Okinoumi – Their fates have already been decided, with Aoiyama make-koshi, and Okinoumi kachi-koshi. This fight is all about the size of promotion and demotion. Okinoumi likes to stay around the middle of the top division banzuke, and a 9-6 finishing record would come close to that. They a 32 match career history that favors Okinoumi 19-13.

Takanosho vs Atamifuji – I feel a bit disappointed that Takanosho does not get a Darwin match, in spite of his 7-7 qualifying score. Instead he gets flagging Atamifuji, who comes in at a depressing 3-11. A win by Takanosho (which seems certain) would mean kachi-koshi for him. Atamifuji is already assigned a berth on the Juryo barge of the damned for the slow float back to Tokyo.

Takarafuji vs Kagayaki – Sure, why not give Kagayaki a freebee. He’s 9-5, and yeah, double digits will put him far enough up the banzuke that he can survive for a while with make-koshi results. I would rather see Takarafuji pick up his 3rd win instead.

Azumaryu vs Myogiryu – Our first Darwin match, and what a heartbreaker. Azumaryu has never been able to achieve a kachi-koshi in the top division, and has tried 4 times. Will this be the basho where he can finally get his 8? Both start this day 7-7.

Endo vs Chiyoshoma – A battle of the make-koshi, both are 6-8, and frankly have really struggled in 2022. This will be Endo’s 5th make-koshi of the year, and Chiyoshoma’s 4th.

Nishikigi vs Kotoeko – Our second glorious Darwin match, with both men quite eager to fight this one out chest-to-chest. Kotoeko comes in with a 2 match losing streak, and Nishikigi a 2 match winning streak.

Ichiyamamoto vs Sadanoumi – Our third Darwin match, this is a good clash of styles. Ichiyamamoto’s long arms and double-barreled thrusting offense vs Sadanoumi’s quickness and agility. Ichiyamamoto has won both of their prior matches.

Wakamotoharu vs Oho – Wakamotoharu has beaten Oho 3 out of their 4 previous matches, including both in the past year. I think Oho is not ready to fight rikishi at this level, and these “test matches” bear that out.

Kotoshoho vs Midorifuji – Our 4th and final Darwin match. Both have lost 2 of the last 3, and seem to be running low on sumo power right about now. Kotoshoho has won all of their 5 prior matches, so should hold a strong advantage today.

Terutsuyoshi vs Ichinojo – This match is nearly as momentous as the yusho decider later in the day. We have not had a zenpai in the top division since Nagoya 1991, when Maegashira 14E Itai went a solid 0-15 on the clay. I know Ichinojo is hurt, but whatever you do, sir, don’t let Terutsuyoshi win. We need history to be made tonight!

Meisei vs Hiradoumi – This bout is a test match for Hiradoumi – how high up the banzuke can he fight and still win a match? After at 7-8 make-koshi in September, he’s really been on fire and could finish with a 11-4 record if he can find a way to beat a man 14 whole ranks above him.

Ryuden vs Kotonowaka – Both are kachi-koshi, and 9-5 Ryuden has a chance to hit double digits against 8-6 Kotonowaka. Ryuden has won both their prior matches, and given that Kotonowaka has been under performing a bit this November, Ryuden stands a good chance of picking up a final win today.

Takayasu vs Abi – The big match of the day, the one that decides if Takayasu will finally take the cup. They have an even 4-4 match history, with Abi winning both prior matches this year. Takayasu tends to put so much power into his upper body motions that he loses his balance, which we can see when he gets on one leg. This will doom him against a disruptor like Abi. He must revert to the form that got him to Ozeki in my opinion. Stable, patient. Grab that guy, wear him down, crush what is left into the clay.

Onosho vs Daieisho – Two mega-thrust rikishi up next, with Onosho already kachi-koshi at 9-5, and Daieisho make-koshi at 6-8. Given Onosho’s 11-9 career history against Daieisho, I give him a fair chance at picking up his 10th and final win today.

Tobizaru vs Ura – Two master of frantic sumo, except Ura is in no condition to give Tobizaru a good fight. So I think this is a “donor” match where Ura helps mitigate Tobizaru’s drop down the banzuke due to his make-koshi record, which reads as 6-8 at the start of the day.

Tamawashi vs Tochinoshin – An incredible 36 career match history between these two, with Tochinoshin holding a distinct 22-14 lead in the series. Both of them are already make-koshi, so this is more or less for points to finish the year.

Nishikifuji vs Mitakeumi – This may seem like a throw away match. It’s a first ever head to head between these two, with Nishikifuji already kachi-koshi at 8-6, and Mitakeumi make-koshi at 6-8. But a Mitakeumi win today could be enough to keep him in the named ranks for January, and give him some shred of hope to hold onto.

Kiribayama vs Hoshoryu – Both are kachi-koshi, both have shown that they are now part of the named ranked mainstays for the year to come. This makes me fairly happy, as long as Hoshoryu can keep his attitude in check. A little humility can indeed go a long way.

Hokutofuji vs Shodai – The history of Shodai getting creampuff senshuraku matches continues. I suppose there may not have been anyone left to fight, but an already make-koshi Maegashira 5 is not really worthy for an Ozeki, even one that is about to lose his rank. Does Shodai even know that he’s been made a joke? At times I truly feel sorry for this guy.

Takakeisho vs Wakatakakage – Wakatakakage actually has quite a bit on the line. He’d like to get to 9 wins and save some credibility as a future Ozeki contender. He may also wish to impact the yusho race that he can only dream of being a part of. If Abi loses, Takakeisho has not real motivation to win other than to send Wakatakakage into the stands for some fan service. But if Abi wins, the door is open for him to take the cup, and I would expect to see Wakatakakage get a rough ride. They share a 5-5 career record.

13 thoughts on “Kyushu Day 15 Preview

  1. I wonder if the no-zeki scenario outlined previously on this blog has the YDC nervous enough that they’re rooting for Takakeisho just to see him win what could be one of the two back-to-back yusho required for Yokozuna…

    • It’s not like it would help, since we’d have no ozeki, and it would put pressure on Takakeisho to do well every basho or retire—no kadoban option for yokozuna…

    • Like @iksumo said, it won’t help with ozeki, but I think today’s playoff loss is good enough given the current situation. Seems like an outright yusho win for Takakeisho in January is probably going to be enough to get him promoted.

  2. Terutsuyoshi wins by Ashitori. If there’s ever a candidate for that move, especially to prevent a Zenpai, it’s Ichinojo.

  3. “He may also wish to impact the yusho race that he can only dream of being a part of.”
    Yeah. Let’s ignore Wakatakakage winning a yusho earlier this year and him being the winningest rikishi in the top division this year.

  4. If we get a 6th different yusho winner this year, it will be the first time since 1991 when the following happened:

    11/1991 Konishiki II Ozeki 13-2
    09/1991 Kotonishiki Maegashira 5 13-2
    07/1991 Kotofuji Maegashira 13 14-1
    05/1991 Asahifuji Yokozuna 14-1
    03/1991 Hokutoumi Yokozuna 13-2
    01/1991 Kirishima Ozeki 14-1

    Technically this also happend in 2020 as there were 5 different winners in the 5 basho (May 2020 was canceled). The winners were: Tokushoryu – January, Hakuho – March, Terunofuji – July, Shodai – September, Takakeisho – November

  5. I’m also sometimes set off a bit by Hoshoryus attitude that seems to be a bit too full of himself. On the other hand, I feel he is one of the mentally strongest rikishi, so this might just be his way to shield off everything. He has lost 3 in a row now and Kiribayama might make it 4 (I think they are pretty evenly matched, even if Kiribayama isn’t having his best tournament), but I doubt he will be shaken by this. He is out of the yusho race now, but if he stays healthy, I think it’s inevitable that he returns there soon again. He already can beat anyone at any given day.

  6. September Takakesho wins by henka over leader Hokutofuji disrupting his sumo enough to knock him out of contention. The following day Wakatakakage does revenge henka against Takakeisho. Without access to Japanese press I am uncertain if this has lead to animosity between Taka and Waka. Will it come into play in today’s match?

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