It’s on to week 2 for the final basho of 2022. We can expect that the named ranks will head into their “difficult” matches, having faced most of the Maegashira at this point. Rikishi in the named ranks with middling records, such as the 4-4 crowd of Shodai, Mitakeumi and Tobizaru are going to have tough work ahead of them if they want to reach kachi-koshi. For Shodai, 8 wins means clearing kadoban, and 8 losses means following Mitakeumi down to Sekiwake. On the subject of Mitakeumi, the odds are now long indeed that he will get the 10 wins he needs to return to Ozeki, and he may in fact struggle to reach 8. I am not sure what is plaguing him, but to me it’s sad to see a man who has worked as hard as he has toward the goal of becoming an Ozeki be unable to fight well enough to sustain it.

We may see our first kachi-koshi for November minted today, as Hoshoryu, Takayasu, Abi, and Oho are all up for a potential 8th win. Sadly, we don’t have a group that has distanced itself from the peloton yet, so no real leaderboard today. Possibly tomorrow if things work out as they may. But all of the men currently at 7-1, should one of them prevail, would be first time yusho winners. One thing is certain, unless something very odd happens, we will once again have 6 basho for 2022, with 6 different yusho winners. For your consideration:

• Hatsu – Mitakeumi
• Osaka – Wakatakakage
• Natsu – Terunofuji
• Nagoya – Ichinojo
• Aki – Tamawashi

What We Are Watching Day 9

Okinoumi vs Ichiyamamoto – These two have fought twice before, with both matches being this year, and both won a match. Ihciyamamoto’s win was by hatakikomi, and Okinoumi by oshidashi. We can be certain that Ichiyamamoto will favor his double arm thrusting style, and that Okinoumi’s mobility is a bit less than his prior tournaments this year.

Kotoeko vs Atamifuji – Another first time match for Atamifuji, ranked at M15W, and not fighting nearly as well as he did in September, he may have to drop back to Juryo and try harder his second run at the top division. I have to wonder what kind of trouble there is at Isegahama with so many kanban rikishi all underperforming. Maybe they had some illness rip through the stable just before the basho and everyone is struggling to bounce back.

Kagayaki vs Kotoshoho – Both men come in at 5-3 today, and both of them have won their last two. Kagayaki in fact picked up a win on day 8 with his fusensho over the now retired Chiyotairyu. The career record of 2-0 favors Kotoshoho, who has won both by yorikiri.

Onosho vs Oho – This is a match I have been waiting to watch, we get 7-1 Oho, part of the leader group, against 5-3 Onosho, who is ranked and fighting far below his abilities. Will he rally today and give Oho a big meaty tadpole fight? Oho won the only prior match, on day 5 in Nagoya this year.

Aoiyama vs Hiradoumi – Aoiyama won their only prior match during Aki. He’s slightly worse off in terms of his lower body now, but I am going to guess that Hiradoumi may be one of those rikishi who don’t like to get smacked in the face 15 times in the course of a 20 second fight. Hopefully we will see him employ a lot of lateral movement to combat Aoiyama’s attack style.

Takarafuji vs Azumaryu – The sad tale of Takarafuji advances to day 9, we can only hope that maybe, somehow, he can squeeze out a win somewhere. He has beaten Azumaryu before, but not in this condition, so I am expecting 4-4 Azumaryu to pick up a much needed win today.

Chiyoshoma vs Myogiryu – Chiyoshoma (3-5) needs to 5 of the last 7 matches to reach 8, which might be kind of a tall order. He’s been near par with 5-3 Myogiryu in the past (6-5 record), so this is an even contest for the win today. Myogiryu is on a bit of a streak, having won 4 of his last 5 matches.

Endo vs Terutsuyoshi – Like Takarafuji, the Terutsuyoshi tragedy is going to be a part of every day of the rest of this tournament. He has never won against 2-6 Endo, and its quite unlikely that he will change that outcome today. Frankly, Endo could use the win.

Takanosho vs Ryuden – A mirror record match with 3-5 Takanosho against 5-3 Ryuden. They are normally evenly matched (2-3), but Takanosho is struggling right now, and may not be even. 80% of his normal sumo power.

Nishikigi vs Tochinoshin – We know that these two will go chest to chest at the tachiai, and if Tochinoshin can get his left hand outside grip, he will probably dominate the match. So I will look for a right side ottsuke from Nishikigi, in an effort to shut down Tochinoshin’s preferred offense. Both start the day at 3-5.

Abi vs Nishikifuji – Abi has won both prior matches against 6-2 Nishikifuji, and will want to pick up a win today to stay in the leader group that started the day 7-1. A win today by Abi would mark his kachi-koshi for November, and would be his 4th this year (he sat out Aki with an injury)

Hokutofuji vs Ichinojo – In spite of his 2-6 record, I don’t think that Ichinojo is too far in the hole to finish with 8 wins. When he is dialed into his sumo, he is close to unstoppable. But having lost his last 4 in a row, it would take a rather amazing turn about to put that in play. Then there is the detail that 5-3 Hokutofuji has beaten him 9 times out of their 13 career matches.

Takayasu vs Meisei – The next member of the 7-1 leader group to try for his kachi-koshi today is Takayasu, who I think will dispatch 4-4 Meisei without too many problems. Meisei has beaten both Ozeki already, and Tamawashi, the other Komusubi. But right now, Takayasu is in this happy place, and I expect him to dominate today.

Kotonowaka vs Kiribayama – This may be the big fight of the day. Both of them come into day 9 at 5-3, and both have been fighting well, in spite of Kiribayama dropping a big match against Takayasu on day 8. Kiribayama holds a 4-2 career record against Kotonowaka.

Tamawashi vs Ura – An interesting match up, as both of these kanban rikishi are coming into today 1-7. The loser will earn their make-koshi for November. Both are high-output, and thus far we have not seen any explanation from either man on what is not working properly for them. Tamawashi has a 2:1 advantage in their career records.

Sadanoumi vs Hoshoryu – Sadanoumi (4-4) has once again surprised some opponents. Today he’s the match for the final man in the leader group, who is eligible to earn his kachi-koshi today, Hoshoryu. This is Hoshoryu’s best start to a tournament, ever, and even if he should get started on a losing streak today, he’s done surprisingly well. I don’t think Sadanoumi’s tremendous speed will make too much of a difference today, as Hoshoryu has the stability to work around Sadanoumi’s antics.

Wakatakakage vs Midorifuji – Wakatakakage’s goal of reaching double digits will require him to win 5 of the final 7 matches of this basho. We know he is capable, as he had an 11-1 streak last tournament, including 8 in a row in the middle of the basho. He’s won the only prior match against 3-5 Midorifuji, and I would love to see Wakatakakage build on his day 8 win against Daieisho, and aim for 8 consecutive wins to finish the year.

Wakamotoharu vs Mitakeumi – Mitakeumi’s path to double digits is even more tenuous than Wakatakakage. He needs 6 of the final 7 to get his 10, and regain the Ozeki rank. In November of 2021, along with January and March of 2022 he put together such a winning streak, so we know he can make it happen under the right conditions. But the path runs directly through Wakatakakage’s brother Wakamotoharu. Both men are 4-4, and Wakamotoharu won their only prior match.

Daieisho vs Shodai – Shodai (4-4) is in a tight spot. He would not want to follow Mitakeumi down to Sekiwake, but he needs to find 4 more wins in the final days of this tournament to clear Kadoban. He faces Daieisho (3-5) who would like to pick up a win, but has a large 13-8 career advantage over Shodai. In fact, Daieisho has won 5 of the 6 most recent matches against Shodai.

Takakeisho vs Tobizaru – It’s time for Takakeisho to toss Tobizaru around, and hope that sumo’s “Flying Monkey” does not somehow get beside or behind the Ozeki, and get a mawashi grip. He’s only beaten the Ozeki once in 5 tries, on day 9 of the tournament held in November of 2020 in place of the Kyushu basho.