Nagoya Day 6 Preview

Tochinochin Smile

With act 1 complete, let’s get into act 2! Act 2 is where we narrow the field to find out who has what it takes to compete for the yusho, and to start sorting the survivors from the damned. As lksumo has already posted (see the post below this one), there are some rikishi are already in trouble. But among the already burning wreckage there are a handful of men who are clearly starting out well. Heading into Saturday, the schedule will flip, and the upper ranks will be more focus on fighting among themselves, and the lower portion of the joi will have their chance to pull in some much needed wins.

What We Are Watching Day 6

Ryuden vs Okinoumi – A fun match as they are more or less the same rikishi 5 years apart. Near the bottom of Makuuchi, Okinoumi should be doing better than 3-2, but it’s a sign of just how hard some of the prior mainstays are fading.

Tochiozan vs Asanoyama – Both of these guys come into this match 4-1, and as with the match above, they are kind of the same rikishi about 7 years apart. Both men are (in my opinion) over-demoted from May, so this will be a fun contest to see if age and skill can trump youth and vigor.

Sadanoumi vs Hokutofuji – Although its their first time meeting, I would give an advantage to Sadanoumi, because frankly Hokutofuji has been a shambles this tournament.

Chiyomaru vs Onosho – Chiyomaru has been fighting soft the entire first act. And by soft I mean that his enormous bulk slows his motions, and blunts his attacks. When he gets his mass in motion it’s very tough to prevent it from continuing on its path, but his ability to strike with precision and effect has been terrible. Add into that he fights Onosho on day 6, who is underperforming like a grade school musical.

Myogiryu vs Aoiyama – Aoiyama got off to a shaky start, but seems to have settled into his sumo. He has a limited range of attack profiles, but he does them very well. This is why he’s never viable above Maegashira 6, but he beats the snot out of the middle and lower banzuke. Myogiryu seems to be in a sweet spot on the banzuke, and he in fact fields a wide range of offensive and defensive set pieces. This will come down to Myogiryu weathering the blows and working center-mass. I think he can make it happen.

Nishikigi vs Kyokutaisei – Nishikigi really lost the plot on day 5, and you have to wonder if Kyokutaisei is going to continue to sputter along. Clearly Kyokutaisei is only about 60% ready, and he can’t seem to finish his offense.

Yutakayama vs Daieisho – Yutakayama holds a 4-1 career lead over Daieisho, who has been struggling more than his 3-2 might indicate. Yutakayama, however, is ranked about as high as he should be until he can get more comfortable with his increased weight, and maybe tune up his sumo a bit. Its clear he has been working on bulk, and like the other young Makuuchi debutants, it takes some time for them to adjust to the higher heft needed to compete.

Kaisei vs Endo – Heft? Heft, meet deft! The king of bulk, the mighty Kaisei is going to take his dump-truck brand of sumo up against Endo on day 6. Endo is clearly doing more than just going through the motions. I think he understands that the promotion lanes are about to swing wide open, and it may be now or never for him.

Chiyotairyu vs Kagayaki – Wow, this has great potential. I am really happy with Chiyotairyu’s sumo this tournament. He has been fast, aggressive and seems to have finally gotten used to his jacked-up body mass. Just outside the joi at this time, he’s a brick wall in the middle of the banzuke. Kagayaki has had some hard fought defeats in act 1, but he’s not the kind of rikishi who is going to give up and phone it in. I expect that Chiyotairyu is going to blast hard off the line, and Kagayaki is going to struggle to find a way to contain that much force. If he can survive the first 6 seconds (much like riding a bull), he is probably going to be in business.

Ikioi vs Shohozan – Both of these guys are likely very frustrated. Like all good folks at the top of the banzuke (below Ozeki), they are the punching bags of the upper ranks. Both of them have finished their tours in Yokozuna land, and now they get to express their frustration on each other. Both are big, strong, and like communicating though tossing their opponents off the dohyo. This could be explosive!

Ichinojo vs Kotoshogiku – If Ichinojo likes his Sekiwake rank, he needs to get it in gear. He has yet to face to big dreadnoughts of the San’yaku battle fleet, and he is clearly struggling. There is no mercy at this level of the banzuke, as Kotoshogiku knows all too well.

Shodai vs Mitakeumi – I am surprised to find that Shodai has a 8-5 career lead over Mitakeumi in head to head match ups. But Shodai has reverted to his bad habits, and Mitakeumi seems to have shed several of his. I continue to think that like Endo, Mitakeumi senses that the promotions lanes will open soon, and it may be his best chance at right rank for the remainder of his career.

Takakeisho vs Takayasu – The giant bruise on Takayasu’s forearm told a story on day 5. In his bout with Ikioi, there was a powerful scuffle for grip, and Takayasu’s arm took a lot of punishment. As he is kadoban, he’s got no choice but to tough it out. If he has banged up an arm, it’s going to be bulldozer sumo for him the rest of the way through this basho. Takakeisho is not looking crisp this tournament, and that was always a strong suit of his. He had several ideas to get his opponents to present him with opportunities to unleash his sumo, and he executed those ideas with flair and energy. But that seems to be largely missing in Nagoya.

Goeido vs Abi – Abi is certainly feeling rather genki following his kinboshi win over the lone surviving Yokozuna. And Goeido has been hit or miss this tournament. Some fans still think this may be his curtain call as Ozeki, but with Hakuho gone, I think he has a narrow margin of safety that he can exploit – if he can win out in act 2.

Tamawashi vs Tochinoshin – Tamawashi has one job, keep Tochinoshin off his mawashi. But as we have seen in the past few days, everyone is going into their Tochinoshin match with that plan. Then they find out that it does not seem to matter.

Kakuryu vs Chiyonokuni – Herouth has reported that Chiyonokuni seems to have a bandage bracing a knee, and perhaps his stunt recovery with Takayasu did some damage. But we also suspect that Kakuryu has taken damage below the waterline. So Big K is possibly ripe for another unfortunate kinboshi. If the Yokozuna pulls, he is probably going down.

 

5 thoughts on “Nagoya Day 6 Preview


  1. some of these match ups i’ll be watching between my fingers as my hands will be held over my eyes… am i game to look? on a different note – loving the pic of the bear with the strength of 2 bears – his smile changes his whole face 😉


  2. Wow. Chiyonokuni must be the luckiest Rikishi in Nagoya. 2 fusen against the 2 Yokazuna in the same competition? When was the last time this happened anyway?


  3. I’m not so sure Takayasu has a bruise on his forearm. I thought it was bruise at first, but I think it is just clay from when he grabbed his arm at the conclusion of the match. I could be wrong and we’ll see on day 6.


  4. I was prompted by a comment under one of Jason’s videos to think about talk of a Tochinoshin promotion — in particular, how premature is it? I went to look up some relevant stats, and it’s very very premature. The three yokozuna in the modern era who were promoted after three basho at ozeki (Kitanoumi, Chiyonofuji, Asashoryu) were all dai-yokozuna with 20+basho. This speaks to how likely it is that Tochinoshin will be able to get a tzuna run started out of the gate (not damn very), but it doesn’t speak to what the actual threshold is for newly promoted ozeki who have not established a record of acceptable performance at that rank. For that we can look at Hakuho’s record. On his ozeki run he went 9-6, 13-2 jun yusho,13-2 playoff loss, and in his first two basho as ozeki he went 14-1 playoff win, 13-2 jun yusho. This was not considered sufficient for promotion.

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