Aki Day 3 Preview

Harumafuji-Dohyo-Iri

We have yet to start day 3, and it’s already fair to say this will be unlike any other basho for the last few years. We face the possibility of losing 2 more from the top ranks and a crowd favorite Maegashira. If all 3 who were injured on day 2 drop out of Aki, that means that both Tagonoura sekitori (Kisenosato and Takayasu) will be out, and the primary Kensho magnet (Takayasu) will be gone.

I know some readers here (and we dearly love our readers!) were uncomfortable with my prediction that Sumo’s injury problems were in the process of boiling over. But as we say in Texas, “Hold my beer”.

But it can and should rightly be pointed out that we are looking at a sekitori population that has multiple kanban rikishi at or above the average age of retirement, and that given the current sumo schedule, there are few windows for medical treatment and recovery without rather stiff demotions. Sumo is a very Darwin environment – the strong advance and the injured or lesser skilled fall away.

But even if there are no other rikishi that go kyujo this tournament, we are now up to possibly as many as 8 from Makuuchi, and half of those maybe from the Yokozuna/Ozeki ranks. Sumo as a brand stakes a lot of their draw and publicity on these top two ranks, and their decimation at Aki may take some time to recover.

Please note that some of the below matches will possibly have fusen wins if one of the rikishi announced they are withdrawing from the tournament

What We Are Watching Day 3

Tokushoryu vs Aminishiki – The REAL Ojisan, Uncle Sumo Aminishiki, comes to Makuuchi to give battle to the bulbous Tokushoryu. With NHK show it on their highlight reel? We can dare to hope.

Endo vs Kaisei – Ends has not come out strong, in spite of only having to face the lower end of the Makuuchi banzuke. Now he goes against the Kaisei, who has not been showing much in terms of speed. Their career series is nearly tied, but it will be interesting to see if Endo can muster his sumo to overpower the large Brazilian.

Daishomaru vs Okinoumi – I am very happy that Okinoumi has started 2-0, and I hope that he has his injuries under control, at least for this basho. He has beaten Daishomaru in their only prior meeting, which was at Nagoya, and one of his 5 wins for that basho.

Takanoiwa vs Ishiura – Takanoiwa has started strong, and he may be well positioned to have a “good basho” provided that he can stick to mid and lower Maegashira for the remaining bouts. Ishiura is still hit or miss, and we have to wonder if he has some chronic injury that is sapping him of his strength.

Chiyonokuni vs Ikioi – A pair of dedicated oshi-zumo practitioners, I would give a slight edge to Ikioi, who has two straight wins and leads the career total 5-2. Ikioi also bests Chiyonokuni in total mass.

Shodai vs Takakeisho – Takakeisho is eagerly throwing himself into his offense so far. He explodes off the tachiai and delivers a relentless torrent tsuppari from the start. Shodai on the other hand is looking slow and comes in high at the tachiai. Takakeisho has never won against Shodai, but I think day 3 changes that.

Ichinojo vs Ura – I expect Ura to be kyujo before this bout. If he insists on competing, I expect Ura will be kyujo after this bout. Ichinojo is looking especially unpolished this basho, but all he has to do is push Ura hard and he might break him at this point.

Chiyotairyu vs Tochiozan – Someone activated Chiyotairyu’s “Beast Mode” and he has been coming off the line strong, and overwhelming his opponents. Tochiozan, by comparison, is looking vague and overwhelmed in each of his matches. It’s hard to tell if some injury is slowing down Tochiozan, but I am going to give an edge to Chiyotairyu this match.

Tamawashi vs Onosho – Tamawashi may be able to gamberize and make it to his day 3 match. But he faces Onosho, who is delighted to have a big target like Tamawashi for his match. Onosho is the real deal right now, strong, fast and completely sure his sumo will win each time. A healthy Tamawashi could delivery a brutal lesson to the young contender, but given day 2’s wrenched ankle, Tamawashi is not likely to be at full power.

Mitakeumi vs Shohozan – Mitakeumi received a lot of elevated expectations going into the basho, but now finds himself with a cold 0-2 start. I doubt that Mitakeumi picked up any injury, so I am going to assume it’s all in his mind right now. Day 3 he faces Shohozan, who has brought his big guns to each match and unleashed hell upon his opponents. Will this be the match where Mitakeumi turns it around?

Yoshikaze vs Goeido – Yoshikaze is also suffering a cold start. And on day 3 he faces Goeido, who is likewise struggling. These two are actually a very good match, with Yoshikaze leading their career total 12-9. I would expect for Yoshikaze to try to disrupt Goeido’s attempt to overwhelm Yoshikaze at the tachiai.

Takayasu vs Hokutofuji – If Takayasu is not too injured to compete, he is going to get a strong workout from Hokutofuji. They have only met once before (in Nagoya), and Hokutofuji was the winner. But my money is on Hokutofuji getting a fusen win.

Terunofuji vs Tochinoshin – Our favorite kaiju is really struggling now, he as no wins in his first 2 days, and we can assume he is not yet even close to 100% healthy. Tochinoshin is likewise winless, but I think he has a real chance to take one from Terunofuji day 3, even though Terunofuji dominates their career totals at 8-2.

Kotoshogiku vs Harumafuji – These two veterans have met 62 times in their careers. But it is Kotoshogiku who holds a slight edge at 34-30 over Harumafuji. If Kotoshogiku can take a win against the lone surviving Yokozuna today, it would in fact be Kotoshogiku’s first kinboshi.

Aki Day 1 Preview

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Welcome To Aki!

After a long summer break, it’s time once again for sumo. Fans, keep in mind that for the first few days, all of the rikishi may appear a bit rusty. This seems to be common until about day 3, so don’t let yourself be alarmed. As everyone knows, there is a huge lack of Yokozuna this basho, and this has a lot of really fun implications for the tournament. Let’s take a look at a few.

Harumafuji is the sole survivor, and he’s in poor shape. The guy has the heart of a lion, but there is no way to deny that he has problems with both knees and both elbows. He competes by sheer force of will alone some days, and his will is indomitable. But I will point out that he tends to lose matches. I call him the “Kinboshi Machine” at times, because he seems to drop bouts to rank-and-file rikishi with some regularity. This means that we can expect him to be a yusho contender, but we can also expect him to drop several bouts. Will he actually finish the tournament? I hate to be gloomy, but I would not put it at higher than a 50/50 chance.

This is fantastic news for the Ozeki. Two of them are kadoban, and they no longer have to worry about winning matches against Yokozuna to make their 8 wins. They just have to defeat the lower San’yaku and the Maegashira for the most part. Terunofuji does not even have to face Harumafuji at all – double bonus! As a result I am going to say it is VERY likely that both Ozeki drop their kadoban status well before day 15. This is also a great opportunity for Takayasu. He is, for the most part, unhurt. With this mix of opponents, he is capable of winning the yusho. But for Takayasu, it’s all in his head. If he can stay focused and stay positive, he can make it happen.

For the lower ranks, it’s open season. They have more freedom to excel than in any basho in the last 2 years. In fact, I expect we are going to see an intensity unlike anything we have enjoyed for some time. It’s much easier to get double-digit wins when you are not going to face Hakuho, Kisenosato or Kakuryu.

So if you are wondering about the viability of the Aki basho – keep in mind you are likely more hard-core than 95% of the Japanese public, or you would not be reading Tachiai. Most of our readers love sumo, from the Jonokuchi up to the Yokozuna, and the start of a basho means it’s time for action. So buckle up, and let’s enjoy what might be a most unusual tournament.

One last note – with fewer daily Makuuchi matches, we overseas viewers get a greater percentage of the total bouts on our NHK highlight reel!

What We Are Watching Day 1

Honestly, I am watching all of it. But let’s discuss some of the big ones

Endo vs Okinoumi – These two are far down the banzuke at Maegashira 14. Both have been major rikishi in the past. Endo is coming off of surgery this past month, and Okinoumi has a chronic injury that cannot be repaired without ending his career. This will be a good exam on how far along in his recovery Endo is.

Ishiura vs Arawashi – Ishiura has been struggling to find a way to advance his sumo since his amazing initial basho in Kyushu last year. Arawashi is just plain strugging and is likely getting towards the end of his career. Arawashi holds a 4-3 edge in their career match-ups.

Ichinojo vs Takakeisho – Takakeisho took a brutal beating in Nagoya. A rikishi’s first time in the joi is often marked by double digit losses, but Takakeisho had to also endure one of the stranger bouts in recent years at the hands of Hakuho. He can start his road back to upper layers of the banzuke with a win over struggling giant Ichinojo.

Shodai vs Ura – Ura was hurt pretty severely in Nagoya. In fact he was on mandatory “light duty” during the summer jungyo, and it was not certain he would start Aki. But it seems that Mr Cherry Blossom is going to give it a go. He faces a man with the worst tachiai in Makuuchi. This will be a good early view in how well Ura’s knee has healed up.

Tamawashi vs Shohozan – Tamawashi was perhaps a bit too comfortable at Sekiwake, and his make-koshi in Nagoya relegated him down to Komusubi. So I look for him to battle back strongly. He faced “Big Guns” Shohozan, who holds a massive 11-1 series lead.

Chiyotairyu vs Yoshikaze – Another possibly really fun match. While many rikishi come in rusty and a bit slow to their first step, Yoshikaze is always dialed up to 11 in the first few days. In addition, he has delivered some really nice kimarite in his early matches over the past few basho, so I have hopes for day 1 against Chiyotairyu. Chiyotairyu though always gives Yoshikaze a good battle, but he is behind 3-5 in their career meetings.

Mitakeumi vs Onosho – Battle of the Tadpoles! We get to see the really wonderful Mitakeumi face off against hard charging newcomer Onosho. Onosho has yet to take a match form Mitakeumi, but Onosho is a man driven to win. I am hoping we can see some expansion to Onosho’s sumo this tournament. No better time than day 1.

Terunofuji vs Hokutofuji – Is Terunofuji healthy enough to compete? His pre-basho practice matches would seem to say yes. If we have a healthy Terunofuji, he can be counted on to deliver a lot of losses to his opponents. Even though Hokutofuji is not Kaio, he is a fierce competitor, and he knows that his own advancement relies on his being able to defeat top rikishi like Ozeki Terunofuji. interestingly enough, Hokutofuji won their only prior match.

Kotoshogiku vs Goeido – We will get to see if Goeido 2.0 is on line and available at last. Although Ojisan Kotoshogiku is a pale ghost of the Ozeki he once was, he can still put up a good fight if he can lock Goeido up and use his hip-pumping attack.

Takayasu vs Tochinoshin – Battle of the strong! Both of these men like to use their amazing strength to overpower their opponents, so it’s going to be great to watch them crank up the sumo in the second to last match of the day.

Tochiozan vs Harumafuji – Tochiozan is a bit of a sleeper, he has had a couple of amazing tournaments this year, and he finds himself at Komusubi, and draws Harumafuji for day 1. He has only defeated Harumafuji 8 times out of their 33 prior matches, so the upper hand goes to the lone surviving Yokozuna.

Nagoya Day 14 Highlights

Takayasu-Harumafuji

It has been a rough morning in Castle Bermondsey, so I do beg forgiveness in being tardy with the update. Many of you will have seen the NHK highlight reel by now. For whatever reasons there seems to be a desire to keep Hakuho from claiming the yusho outright by now. I say this because Aoiyama has had a ridiculously easy schedule. Don’t get me wrong, he still won all of those matches fair and square. But compare this to some prior basho where anyone outside of san’yaku who was close to the leader group was given increasingly difficult matches until they fell away.

For example, you have a Maegashira 8 (Aoiyama) who is on a hot streak. So who does he get for day 14? A Komusubi? An Ozeki? Nah, lets pit him against a Maegashra 12. So there remains an outside tiny chance that Hakuho will lose to Harumafuji on day 15, and we will see The Boss square off against Aoiyama. Followed by several minutes of slow motion replay of Aoiyama’s pendulous man-mammaries swinging wildly as Hakuho batters his up and down the dohyo for sport.

In other news, Ura is now make-koshi, and it is for the best. He has many fans, and they seem to love their little wizard – he is lovable. But he was always going to go make-koshi the first time he faced the san’yaku battle fleet. In the grand scheme of things that would have been Aki, but due to injuries it was at Nagoya. He will come to rest down the banzuke, and with any luck be dominant down there and have a chance to not do further damage to that banged up knee. Trust me when I say, Ura will be back.

Selected Matches Day 14

Chiyonokuni defeats Sokokurai – Chiyonokuni’s rally is a great story coming out of Nagoya. After his turn in the meat grinder as Maegashira 1 during Natsu, he seemed to have started Nagoya down and unfocused. He was able to get his sumo together and return as strong as in the past, and lock down a winning record. Chiyonokuni is another rikishi we will likely see more good things from in the future.

Hokutofuji defeats Ishiura – Hokutofuji picks up kachi-koshi and will be a rank or two higher in Tokyo come September.

Onosho defeats Yoshikaze – Special prize for Onosho, I will predict. That would be two in a row for his first two Makuuchi basho. Yoshikaze looked like he was not quite fully spun up, and Onosho executed well.

Tochinoshin defeats Kotoshogiku – The big Georgain consigns Ojisan Kotoshogiku’s san’yaku rank to the past. Really nice execution by Tochinoshin in this match. His return to good form is a welcome development.

Tochiozan defeats Mitakeumi – No Ozeki run starting for Mitakeumi, there is always next time, but he will get to keep his Sekiwake rank. Tochiozan once again looked calm and worked his attack plan expertly.

Hakuho defeats Goeido – Goeido must beat Takayasu on day 15 to avoid the probationary kadoban status.

Harumafuji defeats Takayasu – Harumafuji once again deploys a tottari. Takayasu ends up looking even more hurt. This basho has really knocked him around, and I hope he gets a chance to heal up.

Nagoya Day 12 Highlights

Hokotofuji
Before Anyone Gets Fussy, Yes, This Is Ozeki Kaio

Hakuho Ties Kaio’s Record

There was a lot of great sumo action today from Nagoya, but the big news is that after a one day setback, the Hakuho win streak has resumed. He picked up his 1047th win today, tying the record held by great Ozeki Kaio, who was present to see this milestone.

Kaio-1047

There are already so many superlatives attached to Hakuho’s career, and with his recent surgery and recuperation effort, we may see him continue to be a dominant force in sumo for several more years to come. Below are a few of the sumo records that have Hakuho’s name beside them:

  • 38 Yusho
  • 13 Zensho Yusho
  • 7 Consecutive Yusho
  • 950 Makuuchi Wins
  • 86 Wins In A Single Year

That being said, there is another record Hakuho is likely to break some time next year, as long as he continues to be healthy: The most tournaments as a Yokozuna, which is currently held by 80’s era great Kitanoumi, and stands at 63.

Highlight Matches

Chiyonokuni defeats Kotoyuki – This was a monster of a match, which saw Chiyonokuni somehow escape Kotoyuki’s force out via a very Ura like maneuver. Sadly it seems that the marginally injured Kotoyuki may have suffered further damage in the match, and was both slow to get up and limping badly. Kotoyuki is clearly headed back to Juryo, so hopefully he will be able to recover.

Shohozan defeats Gagamaru – Also on the fast track back to Juryo is Gagamaru, who has had a miserable basho, and just can’t seem to really bring much energy to his sumo right now. Gagamaru is a beloved public figure in Japan, and I dearly hope that whatever injury is holding him back, he can overcome it by September.

Aoiyama defeats Takarafuji – Aoiyama is not fooling around this time, he is really pushing hard for any san’yaku slot that might show up. Believe it or not, he is still a yusho contender. Much respect to the man-mountain from Bulgaria who has really applied himself this basho.

Ishiura defeats Nishikigi – I am still hoping that Nishikigi can survive in Makuuchi, but Ishiura continues to improve over his lack luster week 1 performance. Ishiura survived multiple throw attempts and was able to force Nishikigi.

Takekaze defeats Daieisho – Takekaze picks up his kachi-koshi with a fairly straightforward hatakikomi. Daieisho is now make-koshi but will be back in Makuuchi for September.

Chiyotairyu defeats Onosho – Chiyotairyu also locks down his kachi-koshi in a really straightforward win over Onosho. Onosho this was one of Onosho least impressive bouts of Nagoya, so hopefully he is back in form tomorrow. I am sure he is within range of a special prize now, if he can pick up a 10th win.

Ichinojo defeats Ura – Wow, we finally get to see Ichinojo move with vigor and purpose. It was actually rather impressive. But it’s also clear that Ura is hurt, and seems to have been hurt more in this match. But Ichinojo really put in the effort to win this one. Great match that I hope they show in the NHK highlight reel.

Yoshikaze defeats Tochinoshin – A brutal match that saw Tochinoshin pounding Yoshikaze with relentless furor. Yoshikaze kept working past the blows and focused on getting inside and taking control of the big Georgain, which after a while he did. Second later Yoshikaze pushed out his opponent, and picked up a hard earned kachi-koshi.

Kotoshogiku defeats Shodai – Kotoshogiku prevails and keeps hopes that he can cling to Komusubi alive. Shodai’s high tachiai is an open invitation to Kotoshogiku to take control and push Shodai around the dohyo.

Tochiozan defeats Takayasu – Tochiozan owned this match from start to finish. Takayasu looked vague and uncoordinated, and Tochiozan flopped him around the dohyo for a time, then pushed him out from behind. One of Takayasu’s worst bouts in recent memory.

Hakuho defeats Tamawashi – Claiming his 1047th career win, Hakuho engaged in a brutal slug fest with Tamawashi. I am sure some of those face blows echoed in the arena, as it looked like The Boss was making up for whatever was lacking in his day 11 loss.

Harumafuji defeats Mitakeumi – Very straightforward Harumafuji win today, Mitakeumi did not repeat his magic of day 11, and the match ended by yorikiri.