San’yaku Battle Fleet

Aki Day 5 Preview

Bruce H Aki Basho 2017, Arawashi (荒鷲), Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Endo (遠藤), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Ikioi (勢), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Shōdai (正代直也), Takakeishō (貴景勝), Takanoiwa (貴ノ岩), Takarafuji (宝富士), Tamawashi (玉鷲), Terunofuji (照ノ富士), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yoshikaze (嘉風) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Good-Squishy

As Kintamayama has labeled it, “The Wacky Aki” continues to be outside the ordinary. Sumo has been a static or slowly evolving system for a good many years, and most fans have come to expect a specific and repeating dynamic to hold power during a basho. For at least this basho, those forces are gone, and we are seeing host of new rivalries and dynamics trying to form. As the Tachiai crew has maintained since Aki last year, the lack of a strong menacing Yokozuna corps is the biggest factor that is at play. With your typical Yokozuna taking in 10-13 victories per basho, that’s a whole lot of losses to the lower ranks to absorb. Sumo is, in fact, a zero sum game. For every win, there is a loss. For a rikishi that has 15 wins, there are 15 rikishi with 1 additional loss. Add to that an Ozeki corps that takes 8-11 wins per basho, and you define the strong headwinds any rikishi faces getting movement up the banzuke.

For the Wacky Aki, we have a Yokozuna who is now 2-2, and looking hurt (as was expected), 3 Yokozuna in dry-dock due to injuries, 1 Ozeki injured for at least a month, 1 Ozeki that is in no condition to fight, and 1 Ozeki who seems too worried about maintaining his rank to give battle to even the most middling opponent.

Can we turn our hope to the San’yaku battle fleet, who in the last few basho have stepped up where the Yokozuna and Ozeki crumbled? Between the Sekiwake and Komusubi, there are 3 wins, and 13 losses at the end of day 4. The west side has yet to win a single match, and if it were not for Tamawashi playing through the pain, east would not even have 3.

What is the result? The rank-and-file rikishi are calling the shots, taking the lime light (and rightfully so) and everyone is watching in eager anticipation of fierce competition. The result is a lot of oshi-zumo.

Which brings us to day 5 – This is the final day for what I call the “First Act” of Wacky Aki. After this, everyone needs to pay close attention to who can still scrape together a kachi-koshi, and who has an outright shot at the yusho. Much as it baffles me to say it, the chance of “Kotoshogiku Day” are brighter than I would like them. But starting Friday, all of the tadpoles are going to have to work out their emotions of possibly contending for the Emperor’s Cup. Frankly some of them won’t be able to keep their sumo under control, and may self destruct. Stay tuned, as the warm ups are about over. The middle weekend will, more than possibly any time in the last few years, really sort the wheat from the chaff.

What We Are Watching Day 5

Endo vs. Kotoyuki – Kotoyuki make a return from Juryo to face a resurgent Endo. Kotoyuki has been a long time Makuuchi guy, who simply could not continue to compete with the various injuries he was nursing, but is 3-1 in Juryo 3w, and may very well be able to win his place in the top division this basho. Endo is coming back from surgery, and has not practiced much, but is doing very well at the bottom of the Maegashira banzuke. This could be another solid match like the one Endo turned in day 4.

Daieisho vs. Chiyomaru – Daieisho is still in the unbeaten group that features several tadpoles. He holds a narrow 3-2 advantage over Chiyomaru in his career record, but Chiyomaru has been flagging the basho, and is not looking very energetic.

Takanoiwa vs. Arawashi – Both of these rikishi are fighting well, and have winning records coming to today’s bout. Takanoiwa enters unbeaten, and holds a 7-3 career advantage over Arawashi. But Arawashi’s day 4 win over Chiyoshoma looked particularly nice, and maybe we are going to see some additional outstanding sumo today.

Takarafuji vs. Kagayaki – Takarafuji has been quietly plugging away in the middle of the banzuke, doing very solid sumo (albeit, with no neck whatsoever). I expect him to completely roll Kagayaki, who has been pretty terrible at Aki expect for his drubbing of Takakeisho day 4. Kagayaki won their only prior match-up.

Ichinojo vs. Ikioi – A great and magical event happened on day 4. Chiyonokuni seems to have managed to toggle Ichinojo’s “mode switch” from bridge abutment back to sumo wrestler. With any luck it stayed in the sumo mode and we can see him try to fold Ikioi more than 7 times without using a hydraulic press.

Chiyonokuni vs. Takakeisho – Takakeisho seems to have reverted to some larval form day 4, with his charge-and-retreat sumo that got him taunted by Hakuho at Nagoya. Chiyonokuni will chase him down and give him an atomic wedgie if he tries that today, so I expect some very strong oshi-zumo from these two. Chiyonokuni leads career series 3-1.

Shodai vs. Kotoshogiku – It’s as if an earlier, more genki Kotoshogiku stepped out of a time portal from last year and is running crazy with no healthy Ozeki or Yokozuna to stop him. I anticipate that at the tachiai, Shodai will stand up woodenly and embrace Kotoshogiku, who will immediately apply the hug-n-chug. Thankfully NHK no longer shows us views of Kotoshogiku adjusting the butt-strap on his mawashi.

Tamawashi vs. Tochiozan – Tochiozan, if you were going to make a case for being San’yaku, this was the easy basho to do it. But instead this very capable rikishi is part of that ugly 0-4 crowd. Tamawashi is hurt, but I would give him the advantage in spite of Tochiozan leading the career series 10-2.

Hokutofuji vs. Yoshikaze – Also on the “wake me up before you go-go” list is my beloved Yoshikaze. I don’t know if he is hurt, distracted or just plain having a crummy basho. But I want him to get it going, please. Hokutofuji is fresh off of a rather spectacular victory over the lone surviving Yokozuna, and he is likely feeling very genki indeed. Hokutofuji has a 3-1 advantage over Yoshikaze, so I am not hopeful the Berserker will correct his side on day 5.

Mitakeumi vs. Tochinoshin – Contributor and commentator lksumo nailed it, this is the “battle of the disappointments”. Both of these rikishi came into Wacky Aki with the potential to really advance their careers. Instead both of them are struggling to find ways to stave off brutal levels of demotion. Prediction for the fight – both men skip the dohyo-iri, and get shit-faced starting at noon. They show up wasted and giddy around 3:00 PM, and only partially secure their mawashi. Bout ends with a rapid cut away on NHK as both men do their impressions of the final scene of “The Full Monty”.

Chiyotairyu vs. Goeido – Chiyotairyu! Expect the henka. Please give Goeido some dirt therapy for all of us fans, to encourage him to actual do some sumo. Goeido, boot up in 2.0 mode and show that bulked up Chiyotairyu that you’re his daddy. Make us think you have some sumo left, show us some fire sir, or it’s no Okonomiyaki for you!

Terunofuji vs. Shohozan – I am really concerned that Terunofuji does not have the strength to actually do Ozeki sumo. Furthermore, I fear that he is going to get hurt because he is competing without a whole lot of strength. Shohozan holds a slight 3-2 advantage over their career match ups.

Onosho vs. Harumafuji – This one fills me with excitement and trepidation at the same time. Onosho really showed a lot of level headed calculus in his pre-match confrontation with Terunofuji day 4, so we know he is not easily intimidated. Harumafuji is not at 100%, and I fear additional losses may put pressure on him to go kyujo, leaving us in the dreaded “No-kazuna” situation we hoped to avoid. With problems in both arms and both legs, Harumafuji is one bad fall away from intai.

Nagoya Day 14 Highlights

Bruce H Chiyonokuni (千代の国), Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Hokutōfuji (北勝富士), Ishiura (石浦), Kotoshogiku (琴奨菊), Mitakeumi(御嶽海), Nagoya Basho 2017, Sōkokurai (蒼国来), Takayasu (高安), Takekaze (豪風), Tochinoshin (栃ノ心), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Ura (宇良), Yoshikaze (嘉風) , , , , , , ,

Takayasu-Harumafuji

It has been a rough morning in Castle Bermondsey, so I do beg forgiveness in being tardy with the update. Many of you will have seen the NHK highlight reel by now. For whatever reasons there seems to be a desire to keep Hakuho from claiming the yusho outright by now. I say this because Aoiyama has had a ridiculously easy schedule. Don’t get me wrong, he still won all of those matches fair and square. But compare this to some prior basho where anyone outside of san’yaku who was close to the leader group was given increasingly difficult matches until they fell away.

For example, you have a Maegashira 8 (Aoiyama) who is on a hot streak. So who does he get for day 14? A Komusubi? An Ozeki? Nah, lets pit him against a Maegashra 12. So there remains an outside tiny chance that Hakuho will lose to Harumafuji on day 15, and we will see The Boss square off against Aoiyama. Followed by several minutes of slow motion replay of Aoiyama’s pendulous man-mammaries swinging wildly as Hakuho batters his up and down the dohyo for sport.

In other news, Ura is now make-koshi, and it is for the best. He has many fans, and they seem to love their little wizard – he is lovable. But he was always going to go make-koshi the first time he faced the san’yaku battle fleet. In the grand scheme of things that would have been Aki, but due to injuries it was at Nagoya. He will come to rest down the banzuke, and with any luck be dominant down there and have a chance to not do further damage to that banged up knee. Trust me when I say, Ura will be back.

Selected Matches Day 14

Chiyonokuni defeats Sokokurai – Chiyonokuni’s rally is a great story coming out of Nagoya. After his turn in the meat grinder as Maegashira 1 during Natsu, he seemed to have started Nagoya down and unfocused. He was able to get his sumo together and return as strong as in the past, and lock down a winning record. Chiyonokuni is another rikishi we will likely see more good things from in the future.

Hokutofuji defeats Ishiura – Hokutofuji picks up kachi-koshi and will be a rank or two higher in Tokyo come September.

Onosho defeats Yoshikaze – Special prize for Onosho, I will predict. That would be two in a row for his first two Makuuchi basho. Yoshikaze looked like he was not quite fully spun up, and Onosho executed well.

Tochinoshin defeats Kotoshogiku – The big Georgain consigns Ojisan Kotoshogiku’s san’yaku rank to the past. Really nice execution by Tochinoshin in this match. His return to good form is a welcome development.

Tochiozan defeats Mitakeumi – No Ozeki run starting for Mitakeumi, there is always next time, but he will get to keep his Sekiwake rank. Tochiozan once again looked calm and worked his attack plan expertly.

Hakuho defeats Goeido – Goeido must beat Takayasu on day 15 to avoid the probationary kadoban status.

Harumafuji defeats Takayasu – Harumafuji once again deploys a tottari. Takayasu ends up looking even more hurt. This basho has really knocked him around, and I hope he gets a chance to heal up.

Kyushu Day 11 Preview

Bruce H Gōeidō (豪栄道), Hakuho (白鵬), Harumafuji (日馬富士), Ichinojo (逸ノ城), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), Kyushu Basho 2016, San'yaku (三役), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安) , , , , , , , , ,

ishura-day10

Finish Strong.

We now start the last 5 days of sumo for 2016. It’s fascinating that Harumafuji and Kisenosato are stilled tied at the top of total wins for 2016, a tie that will be broken soon, possibly on day 11. After watching Kisenosato dismantle Hakuho on the NHK highlight reel, the accomplishment is ever more impressive. Again, the sumo Kisenosato brought to day 10 was some of the best I have seen in some time, and I think the fans in Fukuoka and watching around the world were amazed.

To be fair, Kisenosato finally laid bare the extent of Hakuho’s recovery from surgery this past September. It is clear that the Boss has been artfully keeping the true extent of the remaining weakness in his foot and knee hidden through outstanding technique and clever tactics. But Kisenosato brought a full power maneuver battle to day 10, and in the end Hakuho lost.

But there are some really ugly questions left to resolve. First and foremost in my mind is how badly will this end for Takayasu. Mathematically, he cannot even reach 10 wins this basho. Had he gotten 10, his Ozeki run would have carried forward to Hatsu in January. But now the best he can hope for is 9, and that requires him defeating at least 2 Yokozuna. Realistically he is going make-koshi, and headed down in rank, at least to Komusubi for January. If he somehow manages 9, he remains Sekiwake – but his Ozeki count to 33 starts over again at zero.

Speaking of which, we can start to see who will advance, and who will be demoted for January. In short, it’s a Makuuchi blood bath:

  • Day 10 Makuuchi Kachi-koshi : Kakuryu, Harumafuji, Ishiura, Hakuho, Kisenosato, Arawashi
  • Day 10 Makuuchi Make-Koshi : Okinoumi, Yoshikaze, Sadanoumi, Hidenoumi, Aoiyama, Kyokushuho, Kaisei

For Juryo – There is a lot more bunched up int he middle, showing that for Kyushu, Juryo is much more balanced than the upper division Makuuchi

  • Day 10 Juryo Kachi-koshi : Osunaarashi, Seiro
  • Day 10 Juryo Make-koshi : Tokushoryu, Asasekiryu, Sadanofuji

There is still time to derail the Osunaarashi Juryo Yusho train, but that mighty Egyptian locomotive shows no sign of slowing down.

Notable Matches

Daishomaru vs Ichinojo – First time match up between these two, both of them in the middle of the pack pushing to exit Kyushu with a winning record. Both rikishi are at risk of demotion back to Juryo if they finish with losing records.

Chiyoshoma vs Sokokurai – Chiyoshoma bringing oshi-zumō vs Sokokurai’s yotsu-zumō. Their only prior meeting went to Chiyoshoma, but this is going to be an even match. I expect Sokokurai will prevail on this one.

Myogiryu vs Ishiura – Ishiura, please no mini-henka today. You are facing someone 6 steps up the banzuke, and everyone wants to see if you can handle the harder matches. The degree of your coming promotion is defined by the next 3 matches. This is the first match between these two.

Shohozan vs Takarafuji – These two are fairly even in Kyushu, but historically Takarafuji has yet to win against Shohozan in any of their prior 6 matches.

Ikioi vs Shodai – Winner is kachi-koshi from this bout. Slight edge to Shodai on this, they have only faced each other 3 times. They will be slapping each other around for a few seconds, grapple and figure out the winner.

Day 11 Battle of the Sanyaku Fleet

Goeido vs Terunofuji – First, a resurgent Terunofuji facing a very inconsistent Goeido. Goeido was back to his winning ways, and in good form on day 10. Terunofuji, though still injured, seems to be in very competitive form. Terunofuji, once he gets set, is very tough to move. He has legs like tree trunks and a back that could lift an ox. To win, Goeido needs to take him off balance in the first few seconds before he can get his stance planted, and his attack underway.

Harumafuji vs Kotoshogiku – Kotoshogiku make-koshi today. I am hoping that Harumafuji uses him to practice the kind of sumo he deployed on day 10. Statistically a slight edge to Kotoshogiku, with history showing a 33-27 lifetime between the two. But let’s get serious, Kotoshogiku is going make-kochi, and will once again be kadoban.

Hakuho vs Takayasu – Chances are very small that Takayasu can rally and defeat Hakuho, in spite of the fact that Kisenosato showed his stable mate Takayasu the recipe. Takayasu is still very capable, but he is likely going back to Komusubi with a 7-8 record.

Kisenosato vs Kakuryu – Likely the highlight match of the day. Career statistics, it’s advantage Kisenosato, 30-17. Kakuryu would love to go Zensho Yusho for the last match of 2016, and everyone is hoping that he can suffer at least one loss to open up the yusho race. Kakuryu will have watched the Hakuho match multiple times, and will be studying this new fearsome, mobile Kisenosato.

Aki Day 8 Preview – Can Yoshikaze 嘉風 Equalize?

Bruce H Aki Basho 2016, Harumafuji (日馬富士), Kakuryu (鶴竜), Kisenosato (稀勢の里), San'yaku (三役), Sekiwake (関脇), Takarafuji (宝富士), Takayasu (高安), Tochiozan (栃煌山), Yoshikaze (嘉風) , , , , , , , ,

yoshikaze

Goeido Remains Undefeated – For How Long?

Undefeated: Goeido
Chasers (6-1): Harumafuji, Okinoumi, Endo
Hunt Group (5-2): Kisenosato, Kotoshogiku, Takayasu, Mitakeumi, Ikioi, Kotoyuki, Kyokushuho

Greetings dear sumo fans, followers of the glorious Tachiai web site, and to all the ships at sea. After spending the day returning to the glorious US West Coast, I am ready once more to bring you a peek at what is about to happen in Tokyo. Sadly I missed most of the thrills of today’s amazing day 7, but thanks to Andy who gave us the specifics.

With Okinoumi dealt his first defeat, he will likely continue the chase, now tied with the great Harumafuji (The Horse) for the second tier. Kisenosato is 2 wins behind Goeido, but unless someone stops Goeido, it might as well be 0-7 in terms of The Great Pumpkin’s dream of yusho and ascendancy to Yokozuna, sumo’s highest and most exalted rank.

As many (including myself) have commented, if Okinoumi had won, it was likely he would win the basho, and was quite possible he could do it undefeated, including earning the coveted and exotic zenyusho. But when Goeido twirled him out by the mawashi today, the sumo deities chose a more complex and interesting path.

From here on out, Okinoumi faces primarily lower ranked wrestlers. Goeido faces the bulk of the raging san’yaku battle fleet. But first, Goeido faces the Mad Max of sumo, Yoshikaze. As readers of Tachiai would know, I have my concerns about just how healed up he was able to be (and trained up) given the last basho sent him to the hospital. Clearly he has been capable but less impactful than the Nagoya basho. But tomorrow Yoshikaze can play the role of equalizer. If he can manage to defeat Goeido, it will even his win / loss ratio, but it will toss the entire basho back up in the air.

With a Berserker win, suddenly now your leaders are: Goeido, Harumafuji, Okinoumi, Endo. With Kisenosato, Kotoshogiku, and Takayasu one behind and suddenly in contention. Kisenosato’s yokozuna campaign becomes possibly once more, Harumafuji is in position to capture back-to-back yushos and everyone has to sweat Okinoumi’s easy second half.

Suffice to say, it would be one of the more compelling moves that could take place in this tournament.

Notable Matches, Day 8

Amakaze v Daieisho – I want to see the big “Kaze” at least make kachi-koshi, so I am hoping he wins a few more soon. I will not be surprised if he floats back down to Juryo for another basho or two, but as he has shown with some of his surprising athletics, he will be a full time Makuuchi rikishi soon.

Gagamaru v Chiyoshoma – Gagamaru looking highly upset following his day 7 match with Ikioi, and we hope the Georgia satellite was not injured in the match. I give a slight advantage to Chiyoshoma, who in spite of losing to Shohozan on day 7, is looking very strong.

Kyokushuho v Sadanoumi – 5-2 is a great record at this point of any basho. 5-2 in a basho where you are Maegashira 15 astounding. Day 8 he faces Sadanoumi, who is going to present some challenge, still I think advantage Kyokushuho.

Nishikigi v Tokushoryu – Nishikigi gets a fairly easy bout, I think the Isenoumi beya wrestler will win and even up his record.

Endo v Ikioi – It’s Elvis and Buddy Holly going at it, sumo style. Seriously, I love both these guys, but they had to match at some point. Slight advantage to Endo in my book. But my biggest hope is neither get hurt.

Chiyonokuni v Kotoyuki – Wow, going to be a mad cap war for about 15 seconds. I give a slight advantage to Kotoyuki, if no other reason I have seen him “Hulk smash” twice already this basho. He seems to be getting bigger and greener each day.

Tochinoshin v Daishomaru – I hate to say this, but Tochinoshin – would you consider going kuyjo? Clearly you are at about 80%, and your competitiveness is driving you into the ring. Your fans (like me) want to see you healthy. Think about it, sir.

Shohozan v Shodai – While I am dispensing advice, Shodai – you need a vacation sir. You have been folded, spindled and mutilated. Shohozan won’t provide a face saving win to Shodai, I expect

Takayasu v Takarafuji – YES! Sekiwake throw down coming on Day 8! Pulling for the mighty Takayasu on this one. But what makes this so great is that Takarafuji, who every time I look at him I think of the “muscle” teamster that they use to make sure everyone behaves, is not going to give it up easy.

Goeido v Yoshikaze – Not the final match of the day, but one that everyone will be riveted on. Right now I am just pulling for Yoshikaze to make his kachi-koshi and take a couple of months to train up and heal. But this one has the possibility of being the great equalizer for the entire basho. As every time Yoshikaze steps to the dohyo this tournament, I pray he is not injured. He seems to be taking a lot of blows to the face and eyes.

Kisenosato v Myogiryu – Not a lock, Myogiryu had a great tachiai against The Horse, and for a moment really brought the fight to the champ. If Kisenosato can get his right hand mawashi grip, he wins.

Takanoiwa v Kakuryu – Takanoiwa (Maegashira 3) will likely lose to the Yokozuna, but I hope he gives Kakuryu a good fight. I want to see a stronger, more aggressive Kakuryu soon.