Natsu Day 9 Preview

Natsu Day 9

After last night’s marathon live-blogging session, most of the Tachiai team is rightfully tired and looking for an early bed. But first, let’s discuss the matches that will happen day 9 in Tokyo while the US portion of the crew is tucked into their beds.

With two days remaining in act 2, the one remaining goal for the scheduling team is to get Tochinoshin to pick up at least one loss. They also would like to get (as lksumo points out) a loss or two onto Chiyonokuni and Daishomaru. The ideal situation would be a three-way tie between Hakuho, Kakuryu and Tochinoshin going into or shortly after the start of act 3. This would drive some excitement, and some ratings. The difficulty being that for the moment, Tochinoshin is the most genki of the whole Makuuchi division.

Normally one could place their trust in Hakuho as the ultimate governor of who wins and loses, but his sumo is off at the moment. Many fans are speculating like mad as to why, but you need to look no further than the recent death of his father, and the disruption to his family life and emotional state.

Natsu Leaderboard

Leader – Tochinoshin
ChasersKakuryu, Hakuho, Daishomaru, Chiyonokuni
Hunt Group – Shodai, Kotoshogiku, Ikioi, Daishomaru, Kyokutaisei, Myogiryu

7 Matches Remain.

What We Are Watching Day 9

Onosho vs Aminishiki – As we expected, Onosho is making a visit to Makuuchi to fill a gap left by Endo’s kyujo. It’s also likely the case that he is going to be back in the top division for July. Poor Uncle Sumo is in terrible shape right now, and likely to pick up his make-koshi against Onosho.

Ishiura vs Nishikigi – As the lowest ranked man in the top division, Nishikigi needs nothing less than a kachi-koshi to remain a Maegashira. Today’s match is tough luck for him, as he has a 7-4 deficit when facing off against Ishiura. Nishikigi needs 3 more wins out of the remaining 7 to hold on.

Takekaze vs Chiyonokuni – Takekaze seems to be fading fairly rapidly, and has not really had much sumo this tournament. He is still at 4-4, so it’s possible he could pick up enough wins to keep out of Juryo. Takekaze is highly evasive, where Chiyonokuni is direct and violent. The veteran holds a 5-3 career advantage over Chyonokuni.

Aoiyama vs Kagayaki – Kagayaki has never won against Aoiyama, but for this basho, Aoiyama is clearly hurt, and Kagayaki is fighting in possibly his best form ever. If there was a chance to start correcting that 0-5 losing streak against Aoiyama, day 9 looks like it could be the day.

Takakeisho vs Chiyomaru – I think this one will be a blast. We have the near constant motion of Takakeisho against the bulbous Chiyomaru, who showed on day 8 that he actually has some decent sumo chops against Okinoumi. Takakeisho has won 3 of their 4 prior meetings.

Hokutofuji vs Takarafuji – Notable to me in that Hokutofuji seems to be getting some sense of his sumo back together, and may actually offer some kind of challenge to Takarafuji who has been struggling this tournament with rikishi who tend to stay low. Hokutofuji has a long way to go to recover to the kind of genki he was last year, but his fans believe he has it in him.

Chiyotairyu vs Ikioi – This match is more even than it may seem. Ikioi has been fighting above his recent average during Osaka and Natsu. Ikioi delivered a winning hatakikomi, and I think he will find a way to overcome Chiyotairyu’s cannon ball tachiai and win again.

Abi vs Kaisei – This one seems just for fun, as I am going to guess that unless Abi applies some force behind his long-arm tsuppari, it’s going to come down to Kaisei’s mighty bulk as the deciding factor. They have split their two other matches, so it’s anyone’s guess. I know Abi is having a fun time regardless.

Tochinoshin vs Daieisho – Tochinoshin needs just three more, and I am guessing that his 3-1 career advantage over Daieisho means he’s going to likely get one of them today. Daieisho did surprise Goeido, but I doubt he will be able to overcome Tochinoshin.

Ichinojo vs Goeido – If my guess that Goeido is having ankle problems again is correct, he won’t have much resistance to whatever Ichinojo brings to the early portion of the match. Goeido’s only hope is to use his favorite and best tuned offense – speed. Rapid movement is not an Ichinojo aspect.

Kotoshogiku vs Hakuho – Hakuho leads the series 53-6. I am going to say 54-6 shortly. Kotoshogiku is looking better this basho than he has in some time, and Hakuho looking rough and chaotic. But I still think “The Boss” will dispatch the Kyushu Bulldozer. Maybe not cleanly, but effectively.

Kakuryu vs Shodai – The career record favors Kakuryu 7-0, so he is clearly likely to win this one. But Shodai has been getting his opponents to more or less defeat themselves somehow this tournament. Perhaps some kind of Jedi mind trick. So there’s a small chance he my find a way to get Kakuryu to do himself in, and I will be eagerly watching the final match of the day.

Hatsu Day 14 Preview

yobidashi

Let the trumpets blow, and the banners fly! We are entering the final weekend of what has been a fantastic basho. Should mighty Tochinoshin manage one more wins sumo fans will be treated to the rare event of a rank-and-file rikishi winning the Emperor’s cup. The only path for this not to happen would be for Tochinoshin to lose his last two matches, and for either Takayasu or Kakuryu to win both of their last two. This would force a day 15 playoff. The odds of this are very very slim.

As I mentioned in comments on Herouth’s fantastic day 13 summary, I believe the Yokozuna Kakuryu has re-injured himself, possibly his lower back. He is no longer generating much in the way of forward pressure. If this were a normal basho, he would probably consider withdrawing at this point, as he has a healthy 10 wins. But a combination of him being the lone surviving Yokozuna, and the mandate from the YDC that he finishes his next basho keeps him on the torikumi, even though it seems pretty clear that he is no longer fit to fight.

Takayasu, on the other hand, is fit to fight. He has picked up some unhealthy habits in the past 9 months but seems strong, stable and unhurt. Because he faces Yokozuna Kakuryu on day 14, the winner of this match will likely pick up the Jun-Yusho for Hatsu 2018. If that honor falls to Takayasu, it would be his second. If it’s Kakuryu, it would be his 7th.

For the second day in a row, the scheduling team has created huge moves across the banzuke, with upper and lower rikishi facing off. Many have kachi/make-koshi on the line.

Hatsu Leader Board

Its all down to Tochinoshin – one more win and he’s in.

Leader – Tochinoshin
Hunter Group – Takayasu, Kakuryu

2 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 14

*Abbreviated again as your humble associate editor continues to nurse the flu.

Kotoyuki vs Daieisho – Kotoyuki looking for win #8, and Daieisho may not put up too much of a fight. Kotoyuki holds a 3-1 career advantage.

Yutakayama vs Daishomaru – Yutakayama also trying to pick up #8, but he has never taken a match from Daishomaru, who needs 2 wins to secure a winning record.

Ishiura vs Chiyomaru – One of the big gap matches, Ishiura (M15) goes up against the bulbous Chiyomaru (M9). Ishiura is still one win away from a kachi-koshi to hold on to his position as a Makuuchi rikishi. Chiyomaru already kachi-koshi. Chiyomaru will look to keep Ishiura from getting too low and grabbing the mawashi to set up a throw. Given Chiyomaru’s enormous girth, that grip could be hard to achieve.

Ryuden vs Kaisei – Both men are kachi-koshi, but Ryuden is pushing for 10 wins and a possible sansho to start the year. Ryuden (M16) has actually beaten Kaisei (M8) the only time they matched, during Kaisei’s Juryo furlough.

Chiyoshoma vs Asanoyama – The happy rikishi Asanoyama (M16) has his first time meeting with Chiyoshoma (M7). This is a real Darwin match as Chiyoshoma needs both wins to secure a winning record, and Asanoyama needs one more to avoid being returned to Juryo for March.

Kagayaki vs Endo – Our very own buxom rikishi Kagayaki (M12) will try his sumo against the surprisingly agile and balanced Endo (M5) who had a fantastic match against Kotoshogiku on day 13. Both are kachi-koshi, so this is more of a “test match” than anything. Kagayaki has a surprising 4-1 career advantage over Endo.

Shohozan vs Tochinoshin – This one is for all the hardware. Shohozan is never a pushover and will fight hard to slap the presumptive Yusho winner away from his belt at every chance. He can rest assured that once Tochinoshin lands his grip, he’s going to take Shohozan out for a loss.

Abi vs Kotoshogiku – The biggest banzuke gap match of the day pits Abi (M14) against former Ozeki Kotoshokigu (M2). Kotoshogiku wants to pick up at least one more win, and Abi wants to qualify for one of the magical sansho special prizes he has coveted. This is their first ever match.

Takarafuji vs Ichinojo – Calm and competent Takarafuji needs one more win in the last two days to secure a winning record. While we get to see if Ichinojo got hurt in Friday’s match, or if he returns ready to swat the smaller rikishi around like bugs once more. Ichinojo holds a 9-2 career advantage.

Takakeisho vs Shodai – Takakeisho’s record is a lost cause for Hatsu, but against all odds, Shodai could still walk out of this one with kachi-koshi. Takakeisho is looking slightly rough, and I am not sure if it’s because he has gotten a right good beating this basho, or if he is nursing some nagging mechanical injury.

Arawashi vs Tamawashi – Battle of the Eagles sets Arawashi of the damaged legs against Tamawashi the smiter of men. Tamawashi holds a 6-3 career advantage, and I am expecting Arawashi to end up make-koshi after this bout.

Goeido vs Mitakeumi – Mitakeumi seems to have remembered his sumo on day 13, and we are all glad for it. Now if whatever happened to him can be uploaded to GoeidOS 0.5 beta 3 before the unit is declared defective and stamped “kadoban” once again, the sumo world will rejoice.

Kakuryu vs Takayasu – My guess is Takayasu blasts Kakuryu out in a hurry, and Big K offers little resistance. Not because he does not care or does not want to win, I will state again I am pretty sure he is injured. If I am wrong, this could be a really first-class battle as Kakuryu has a 12-5 career advantage over Takayasu, and when healthy can generally cause all kind of havoc with a rikishi (even an Ozeki) that is chaotic and sloppy as Takayasu has become.

Hatsu Day 12 Preview

Tochinoshin-2

Day 11 dialed this basho up to maximum and then added a box of firecrackers. Takarafuji’s battle against Tochinoshin was magnificent, no other way to describe it. Time and again Takarafuji blunted the big Georgian’s move to land his mighty grip and out-muscle him. But the rikishi with no neck would have none of it. Sure Tochinoshin won in the end, but what a battle!

With that win, and Kakuryu’s loss, the Yusho race is now a head to head run to Sunday. If each man can close out the remainder of his bouts without a further loss, they will face off for the second time at the end of the basho. There are fans in Japan who are ready to dismiss it as an uninteresting battle of foreigners, but for sumo fans globally, it’s more about the strength, skill, and speed of the contestants that matter. To get to that Sunday showdown, Yokozuna Kakuryu has the harder path. He faces both Ozeki and Mitakeumi, though neither Goeido nor Mitakeumi are looking formidable at this point.

Mitakeumi, in particular, is proving he is not yet ready to try to compete at Ozeki levels. That said, look at the bench standard here: Goeido. I hate to say it, but Goeido needs to take 2 of the last 4 matches to avoid once again being kadoban. Sure, you tell me – no worries. He faces Takayasu on day 12 and will face Mitakeumi soon. With his past two losses, he has proven that even Wakaichiro might have a fair chance against him. Not good.

Hatsu Leader Board

The Yusho race is down to two for now. Both of them have already matched, with Kakuryu the winner.

Leaders – Kakuryu, Tochinoshin
Hunter Group – Takayasu, Daieisho

4 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 12

Nishikigi vs Kagayaki – Kagayaki is working closer to his kachi-koshi, and he may pick it up today. Somehow, Nishikigi is hanging on to Makuuchi with everything he has. Who can blame him? The chicks dig the top division guys, plus you can score free bi-ru (ビール) at any pub in Japan. Career record is 5-3 in Kagayaki’s favor.

Kotoyuki vs Asanoyama – Kotoyuki looked like he got a bit hurt in his day 11 match, but this guy has limped off the dohyo more times than I can accurately count. He tends to rebound and return, even if it looked like he was dismembered and on life support the prior day. Asanoyama is one win away from kachi-koshi, and a move away from the bottom edge of Maegashira. Kotoyuki took their only prior match.

Ryuden vs Daishomaru – Also in the category of new faces looking to pick up their 8th win is Ryuden. In his first ever match against Daishomaru, he will be looking to get things mobile and light, which favors his sumo. Daishomaru will look to pummel Ryuden into a disoriented mess and shove whatever remains out with enthusiasm.

Shohozan vs Sokokurai – Shohozan is fighting well, and a win here would give him kachi-koshi and Sokokurai make-koshi at the same time. Brutal but effective. Last basho, Sokokurai took the Juryo yusho, but he has been struggling in his return to the top division.

Abi vs Chiyomaru – The winner of this match will pick up the coveted kachi-koshi and an interview slot on the NHK broadcast. Plus, I would guess, several additional bi-ru payable on demand. Of course, Abi has never won against Chiyomaru, but perhaps Chiyomaru’s enormous bulk will somehow prevent him from winning. NAH! Of course, he will do just fine.

Shodai vs Chiyoshoma – What happened here? How is Shodai winning? Where did the man-droid version of Shodai go? That one was pretty crappy at sumo and just sort of flopped around like day old fugu in Tsukiji. Shodai is actually 2-0 against Chiyoshoma, and a win here would leave us facing the ugly possibility that Shodai could actually be promoted going to Osaka. Please, more bi-ru here. I need to get my head straight on this one.

Yoshikaze vs Ichinojo – There is no good way for this to go. Their career record is 3-3, and Ichinojo is looking genki, and Yoshikaze is not. As much as I love to see the berserker’s arms move at speed, there may be little to do against the boulder save to get him off balance and roll him over. Ichinojo, on the other hand, could probably bounce Yoshikaze on his knee like a toddler. Please, oh Great Sumo Cat of the Kokugikan, don’t let this happen, and if it does, don’t let it make it to video.

Takakeisho vs Kotoshogiku – Both of these guys are in a bit of a mood to throw caution to the wind it seems. Takakeisho’s flipper fight against Yoshikaze left him bloody. Kotoshogiku has been finding people giving him the chance to land the hug-n-chug. Maybe everyone thinks because he is Maegashira 2, they don’t have to guard against it. I am sure that Takakeisho won’t let him grab hold. Their career record is an even 1-1.

Mitakeumi vs Okinoumi – Okinoumi is make-koshi. So, my guess is that he drops Mitakeumi who once again regains his feet blinking in surprise. Get it together man!

Tochinoshin vs Tamawashi – This is THE big match of the day. Tamawashi is the first, and so far only rikishi to put dirt on Kakuryu, and in doing so he pulled Tochinoshin back into the yusho lead. Now Tochinoshin gets to face down the same Tamawashi, who seems to have regained his sumo. Tamawashi typically presents a nearly unstoppable thrusting attack, which will be the antithesis of Tochinoshin’s yotsu style. We will see who sets the terms of the match coming out of the tachiai. Hopefully, Tamawashi is studying Takarafuji’s masterful defense.

Goeido vs Takayasu – Normally I would be very excited for an Ozeki battle. But Goeido is on hard times. He needs this win to keep outside of the kadoban penalty box, but Takayasu is looking slightly more genki. Notice I didn’t say a lot more genki. What is plaguing Takayasu, I can’t tell. It might be that he is worried about his senpai Kisenosato.

Kakuryu vs Endo – Lesson from day 11, Big K. Keep moving forward. Once you stepped back, Tamawashi had your number and you had no way to correct. Take the fight to Endo and power him out. You have this one, just be strong and go tonbo (蜻蛉) on him.