Nagoya Day 12 Preview

Yoshikaze-wide

We Love Sumo Thiiis Much!

With just a few days remaining, the Nagoya yusho race came back to life with Mitakeumi’s surprise upset of Yokozuna Hakuho. Some Hakuho fans, like myself, had hoped that he could rack up at least one last back-to-back zensho run, but it’s clear that the new crop of rikishi are too competitive for that kind of dominance this year. The two rikishi who could challenge are both at least 2 tiers of skill below Hakuho on a bad day, so it’s clear that it’s still his yusho to lose.

A dominant Hakuho creates several effects on the upper ranks of sumo. For starters, it makes it practically impossible for anyone else to get close to a Yokozuna promotion. In order to even be considered, you have to beat the yokozuna with the most wins ever, who on an average day is unassailable and on a good day can find your sumo boring and uninspired. This has a knock on effect for Ozeki and San’yaku promotion slots too.

Watching Ura’s performance today, it’s evident that his injuries are limiting his performance now, and his ability to endure that damage for the remaining 4 bouts will determine a lot about the next 4 months for his sumo career. If he can win half his bouts, he will come away with a kachi-koshi, and likely be in one of the top 4 Maegashira slots in September. If we use Iksumo’s wonderful forecast, Ura is likely to face Kotoshogiku, Tamawashi, Yoshikaze, and Ichinojo. This would be a tall order if he was fully healthy, so my original prediction of make-koshi for him is looking like a reasonable outcome.

For Mitakeumi to get to 10 wins, and kick of a chance at an Ozeki bid, he needs two more wins out of a roster of Harumafuji, Tochinoshin, Ikioi, and Chiyoshoma. Not trivial but possible if he can stay focused and uninjured. Kotoshogiku is at the bottom of a deep hole now, and needs to win all 4 against a predicted schedule of Shodai, Ura, Tochinoshin, and Hokutofuji. While it is possible, his next defeat and he is out of san’yaku.

Heading to Aki, we already know that Terunofuji is kadoban, and if he is healed by September, he will easily shed that burden within the first 10 days. Goeido however is at real risk of being kadoban himself, in spite of some fairly good sumo this basho. He faces a predicted schedule of Tochiozan, Hakuho, Harumafuji, and Takayasu. He needs to win 2 of those to keep out of kadoban.

Nagoya Leader board

Leader – Hakuho
Chasers – Onosho, Aoiyama
Hunt Group – Harumafuji, Takayasu, Mitakeumi, Tochiozan, Takarafuji

4 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 12

Chiyomaru vs Daishomaru – Chiyomaru trying again for his kachi-koshi, which would also make Daishomaru make-koshi at the same time. This is their first match up ever, so it’s going to be interesting too see how this goes.

Aoiyama vs Takarafuji – Both having winning records secure, so this is more of a sparring match. Aoiyama looked off form on day 11, can he bounce back?

Nishikigi vs Ishiura – Both rikishi are struggling with a middling record right now, but Nishikigi will be on the fast train back to Juryo if he cannot lock down his winning record. Ishiura has a 6-1 advantage in their career match ups.

Chiyotairyu vs Onosho – Onosho is gunning for a second consecutive special prize, and Chiyotairyu needs one more win for kachi-koshi. Right now momentum favors Onosho, and he holds a 2-1 advantage in their 3 career bouts.

Ura vs Ichinojo – Traditional big man / little man sumo contest. Sadly Ura is looking hurt, but given the schedule above, it may his best chance to pick up a badly needed win.

Hokutofuji vs Takakeisho – Hokutofuji is working hard to avoid his second ever tournament losing record. He has to defeat the explosive Takakeisho to reverse course. Takakeisho is already in a majority loss record, but he’s still fighting hard. He has also won both of their prior matches.

Yoshikaze vs Tochinoshin – Winner gets kachi-koshi, with Tochinoshin leading their career match ups 14-7. Tochinoshin has Yoshikaze out gunning in height, weight, strength and reach. But don’t count out the superior athletics of Yoshikaze.

Shodai vs Kotoshogiku – A Kotoshogiku loss would mark him make-koshi, and ensure a demotion out of san’yaku for September. The good news for Ojisan is that Shodai has been horrifically inconsistent this basho.

Kagayaki vs Goeido – The last of the “easy” bouts for Goeido, he needs to pick up this win if he wants to avoid kadoban status for September. I expect Goeido will go for the lighting charge out of the tachiai. Kagayaki, ever consider a henka?

Takayasu vs Tochiozan – You would think the Ozeki would have the advantage here, but Tochiozan leads their career match ups 18-6! In addition, Tochiozan has been fighting well this basho, and will likely give Takayasu a hard fight.

Hakuho vs Tamawashi – Tamawashi has never beaten Hakuho, and I don’t expect Hakuho’s day 11 loss to Mitakeumi to have any carry-over effect for today. This is likely the day that Hakuho ties Kaio.

Mitakeumi vs Harumafuji – I really want Harumafuji to win this one, but he is clearly suffering with problems in multiple joints. So I am going to say that Mitakeumi has a decent chance here. Their career record favors Harumafuji 3-2.

 

Nagoya Day 9 Highlights

Ura Lines Up

Let The Crazy Train Roll

Where to start with day 9? Possibly one of the most engaging and topsy-turvy days of sumo in a while. If you are the type that does not want “spoilers” before you watch it on TV, best to turn back now.

Ok, we will start with last night’s preview! I do a paragraph on Juryo 5 Asanoyama – seems like he is really chugging along, and he dropped his bout with Kaisei. My apologies to Asanoyama if the sudden, unexpected write up somehow doomed him. At least he secured his kachi-koshi before then. This puts him even with Yutakayama, who won his match today, in the Juryo yusho race.

Day 9 – if you can find it on Youtube, it’s worth seeing in addition to whatever NHK will try to shoe horn into 20 minutes. The Makuuchi was wall to wall amazement, and it’s a shame that those of us in the West are limited on days like today. Start with Kintamayama’s day 9, I advise.

Highlight Matches

Takarafuji defeats Nishikigi – Nishikigi owned this one from the tachiai, but it seems he made a small mistake just as he was taking Takarafuji to the edge, and Takarafuji exploited that mistake and tossed Nishikigi out. Nice okuridashi.

Chiyomaru defeats Shohozan – A real slug fest, they broke contact a couple of times to glare at each other, and launched back into the fray. Chiyomaru managed to pull down Shohozan as he was chasing him.

Aoiyama defeats Chiyonokuni – Originally the gumbai was pointed at Chiyonokuni, but a monoii was called, and the shimpan noticed that Chiyonokuni’s right foot was out as he cocked the throw that won. Chiyonokuni gets a bloody nose for his prize. Aoiyama secures his kachi-koshi, and first class ticket to punching bag status in upper Maegashira for Aki.

Ishiura defeats Takanoiwa – Sadly, Takanoiwa has now secured his make-koshi, but boy did Ishiura look good handing it to him. There is no way of knowing what kept Ishiura in “neutral” for the first few days in Nagoya, but he certainly seems to be on his sumo now.

Ikioi defeats Hokutofuji – Ikioi has been as lack luster as his 2-7 record would indicate, until today. He was crisp, focused and took Hokutofuji to the clay like he knows sumo. I hope this Ikioi sticks around for the rest of the basho, the other one was boring.

Tochinoshin defeats Shodai – Why Shodai? Did you really want a contest of strength against this lumberjack guy? Shodai conceded to a mawashi battle and was doomed from the start. Tochinoshin looks to have overcome his knee problems to once again be somewhat formidable.

Mitakeumi defeats Kotoshogiku – One.. Two.. Henka! Mitakeumi deftly side steps the Kyushu Bulldozer for an easy win. I dig the new NHK “Henka Cam” mode.

Tamawashi defeats Takakeisho – To me this looked like the sequel to Takakeisho’s match with Hakuho. Lots of tsuppari, some taunting, breaking contact and in the end a miserable defeat. Takakeisho will be back in a tournament or two, better and stronger than before. This is just his welcome to the joi-jin parade.

Yoshikaze defeats Takayasu – Takayasu seemed completely unprepared for Yoshikaze’s attack. True to form the Berserker led with his face, but got inside Takayasu immediately, and took control before the big Ozeki could plant his feet and battle back. Very nice win, but drops Takayasu to 7-2.

Chiyoshoma defeats Goeido – A mighty Goeido 2.0 tachiai directly into Chiyoshoma’s too slow attempt to side step the charge. Chiyoshoma somehow managed to convert this mess of a start into a twisting throw at the bales. The shimpan called a monoii, but footage showed Goeido landing a split second before Chiyoshoma.

URA DEFEATS HARUMAFUJI – The Aichi Prefectural Gymnasium explodes with fanfare as crowd favorite Ura finds a way to wrangle the master of winning by speed into the clay. It happens so fast, multiple replays in slow motion are required to take it in. This is Ura’s first kinboshi, and he is clearly overwhelmed. In the post bout interview, he does lose his grip and starts crying. I think even Harumafuji wondered how he did that.

Hakuho defeats Kagayaki – Not quite as good an effort from Kagayaki today, but it looks to me like he lost his footing on the the clay. I will update the Hakuho meter later today, but he is now tied with Chiyonofuji’s 1045 all time win mark. Three more to go and another lofty mark belongs to the Boss.

Nagoya Day 8 Highlights

Hakuho-Salt

Simply, Some Fantastic Sumo!

This is one of the days that I wish the NHK show was more than just highlights. There was a wide variety of great sumo, from the first Makuuchi matches all the way up to the Yokozuna finals.

The young crop of rikishi who are competing at the very top of sumo for the first time are really recusing themselves well. We are not seeing waves of upset wins, that was never in the cards. But we are seeing young men with skill and a lot of determination going into matches they will not win with a plan to compete hard, and delivering a challenge to some of the best sumo has ever seen.

It should be noted that Aoiyama lost his match today against upstart Onosho, breaking his really fantastic unbeaten streak. I don’t really cover Aoiyama much, because he is a very one dimensional rikishi. He will execute his bouts in a given manner, and will rarely stray from that plan. This used to be Mitakeumi’s problem too, but he managed to expand his sumo, and as a result he is consistently fighting at San’yaku level now. Is it possibly for Aoiyama to be viable at higher ranks? I hold dear the notion that any person can adapt, survive and overcome. So for Aoiyama, I think it’s going to be about setting a goal and working hard to attain it.

Hakuho is now one win away from tying Chiyonofuji’s all time win mark of 1045. Short of an asterioid strike or a tragic injury, we will see Hakuho take out Kiao’s (yeah, that guy in the picture) all time high of 1047. It’s difficult to review the entirety of Hakuho’s career without devolving into a rolling mess of superlatives, and this additional record heaps those superlatives ever higher.

Highlight Matches

Takekaze defeats Chiyomaru – Huge effort from Chiyomaru here, really stood up to a pounding delivered by Takekaze at first, then Chiyomaru locked up the veteran to wear him down. They stood chest to chest for an extended period and it was Takekaze who broke the stalemate with a last ditch hip pumping attack. Great great sumo here.

Chiyonokuni defeats Gagamaru – So happy that Chiyonokuni has overcome whatever had him lethargic and losing during the first week. The battle with Planet Gagamaru was excellent effort from both rikishi, and it could have gone either way. Watch this one if you can find it! It’s not common to see Gagamaru this active and committed to battle.

Tokushoryu defeats Sokokurai – Although Sokokurai put up a great fight, Tokushoryu just kept moving forward. This is a fundamental principle of sumo that every Takakeisho learns, but many don’t always put into practice. As my readers may have guessed, I am a big fan of the fundamentals, and when I see them executed well, I call it out.

Takanoiwa defeats Okinoumi – At the bleeding edge of make-koshi, Takanoiwa pulls out a win. It did look like Okinoumi lost his footing and fell, but it was still a win.

Ishiura defeats Ichinojo – Yes yes yes! Sumo has these great big man / little man bouts, and this was about as large a difference as you might ever muster. Ichinojo really had Ishiura on the defense from the start, and it’s fun to see Ishiura deploy his take on Hakuho in a bout like this. Ishiura has now pulled even to 4-4.

Onosho defeats Aoiyama – I am starting to think that Onosho will get to have the “Takakeisho experience” next basho, as this young rikishi keeps turning up the power. The bout was mostly Onosho driving forward after finding a way to get Aoiyama off balance. Very nicely done.

Tochinoshin defeats Ikioi – Crowd favorite Ikioi has been sucking wind this basho, I hope that whatever has him underperforming can be resolved. Tochinoshin took a side step at the tachiai and got behind Ikioi to take control, but Ikioi recovered well enough to put up a bit of a struggle.

Shodai defeats Tamawashi – Shodai was high again in the tachiai, but was able to take charge of Tamawashi and defeat his offensive strategy. Very good effort from Shodai, and I hope we see more from him like this.

Takakeisho defeats Mitakeumi – This match was a joy to watch. We already know that Mitakeumi will be a San’yaku fixture for the next several basho, but it’s great to see just how much effort Takakeisho can bring to a match like this. Turns out, quite a bit! Watching these two with the same build, the same height and the same mawashi color is a bit unsettling. Well done lads!

Goeido 2.0 defeats Hokutofuji – I love me some Hokutofuji (Kaio Edition), but this was Goeido 2.0 time. He exploded off the line and blasted Hokutofuji out. When I talk about Goeido 2.0, it’s this total commitment to his attack plan, with no chance or hope of a defensive move anywhere along the way. Just overwhelm your opponent and accelerate to victory.

Takayasu defeats Chiyoshoma – Chiyoshoma decides to grab Takayasu’s mawashi, and sumo nerds crack a smile. Yeah, let the big man hug you to victory. Thank you Chiyoshoma for doing that.

Hakuho defeats Ura – As foretold by our readers and the Tachiai team, it was all Hakuho. But damn Ura, that was a strong game plan, and I think you actually made the boss work for his win. I am not sure about Hakuho, but I was impressed that Ura was able to operate effectively. Hakuho is, essentially, unstoppable at this point. Yes, the crowd went bannannas.

Harumafuji defeats Kagayaki – The young Kagayaki really did not have much of a chance, but he put up a fantastic fight. As with the Hakuho-Ura match, he made him work for it. Kagayaki is still too inconsistent to be much of a fight, but sumo fans can see that he’s got the spark of potential to be great.

Nagoya Day 6 Preview

Kisenosato-Dohyo-iri

Who Will Sit, And Who Will Fight?

Word just as this was going on the blog is that Ozeki Terunofuji has wisely decided that his newly repaired knee is not ready for combat, and he will sit out the remainder of the Nagoya basho. Though he will be kadoban (he was going to be anyhow) for Aki, if his knee is healthy he is more than capable of fixing that situation in the first 10 days.

We still away the “day of” decision on Kisenosato, who seems to have really damaged his ankle as Ikioi launched him from the dohyo into the Tate Gyoji. Right now, Kisenosato is a sports medicine superfund site. I would almost suggest that he just give up until Kyushu, develop and execute a complete rebuild plan. Yes, it would be a let down to the fans, but I think it would be less of a let down than seeing their hopes dashed by an increasingly crippled Japanese born Yokozuna.

Matches We Like

Sadanoumi vs Nishikigi – Although he suffered his first defeat on day 5, Nishikigi is already half way to his kach-koshi. Today he faces Sadanoumi, whom he leads on the career totals 6-4. Sadanoumi is fighting well this tournament, and this could be a really vigorous battle.

Takarafuji vs Chiyomaru – Another Juryo escapee, Chiyomaru, is fighting hard to ensure he’s not relegated back to the farm league any time soon. Today he faces Takarafuji whom he has never beaten.

Takanoiwa vs Aoiyama – Unbeaten Aoiyama faces a rikishi with zero wins so far. Aoiyama has a limited range of sumo, but at this rank he is able to fight with great effect. Right now he is tied with Hakuho for the leader position of the basho.

Daieisho vs Onosho – Onosho shows no sign of slowing down, and in fact is looking sharper every day that he is on the dohyo. He has a slight career edge of Daieisho. Both of them are avid oshi-zumō disciples, so the blows will fly in their bout. Look for Daieisho to try to win the tachiai and keep Onosho outside and on the move.

Tochiozan vs Kagayaki – Tochiozan is quietly racking up an impressive score so far, and seems to be very effective at taking control of the bout and imposing his plans on each match. Kagayaki is a young up-and comer, and may not have much to counter the veteran’s battle plan. This is a first meeting between these two.

Ura vs Takakeisho – Ura has never beaten Takakeisho. In their 6 prior matches, he’s not been able to overcome Takakeisho’s blistering attacks. Typically Takakeisho begins with a massive tachiai, and then rains blows down on Ura until he crumbles. Maybe Ura will take a page from Hakuho and offer him the chest?

Yoshikaze vs Mitakeumi – Match with one of the highest potentials for awesome on day 6. Although common sense would be to vote for the Sekiwake over the Komusubi, Mitakeumi has lost all 3 of their prior bouts. I am sure Yoshikaze is looking for some actual sumo after day 5’s Hakuho Henka (Henkaho? Hakukaka?).

Tamawashi vs Goeido – Please oh please let Goeido 2.0 come out to play today. If we can get that this could be a huge brawl between two practitioners of sumo at lighting speed with overwhelming amounts of aggression. Just what we need to start the second act.

Takayasu vs Tochinoshin – Big and strong meets big and strong. Time fans to find out not only what kind of condition Tochinoshin’s knee is in, but also how lose both rikishi’s fillings are. I predict a monster collision at the tachiai followed by a burly man mega brawl. But be on the look out for a Tochinoshin henka. He uses it sparingly, and with Takayasu’s tendency to rush forward strongly, it would be highly effective.

Hakuho vs Hokotofuji – Hokotofuji will get a very different reception, I would guess, than Takakeisho did. Where Takakeisho is kind of small and almost like a capsule toy, Hokotofuji is a lumbering hulk who spends a lot of time studying his opponents. Hakuho will likely try to nullify him at the tachiai and blast him out early. To have any chance, Hokotofuji will have to sacrifice everything, and endure a torrent of tsuppari to get inside. Without that, it’s all Hakuho.

Kisenosato vs Kotoshogiku – Both of these two wrecks should be in dry dock, not on the dohyo. Not that it really matters much given both of them would qualify for wheel chairs, but Kotoshogiku has a slight career edge at 34-31.

Ikioi vs Harumafuji – I am sure Ikioi is happy his only win is a kinboshi. So I am sure that Harumafuji will pommel him around a bit before he takes Ikioi to the clay.