Nagoya Day 1 Preview

Photo Courtesy Of The Japan Sumo Association’s Twitter Feed

After a long, very dry spell, its once again time for sumo! Earlier on Saturday, the Dohyo Matsuri was conducted, and everything is now ready for the first matches on Sunday morning. There is a somewhat clearer picture of who is genki and who is not as we count down the final hours to the start of the basho. Some headlines

  • Hakuho – The right arm is advertised to be back to full power, and he seems healthy and ready to go.
  • Kakuryu – His chronic back problems seem to have returned, so it may be a less than average performance from Big K
  • Goeido – No word at all. I am going to guess is has been practicing like a maniac as he always does.
  • Takayasu – Also reported to be having body issues, but Andy maintains we will see his best sumo ever this July.
  • Tochinoshin – Possibly jet lagged, some reports of injury, but I am going to expect him to be back to fighting like a bear that has the strength of two bears.
  • Takakeisho – Sitting out Nagoya, he will be Ozekiwake in September with a 10 win mountain to climb. A tough outcome for the most successful of the tadpole clan.
  • Yoshikaze – Injury to a ligament on his right knee, with a mandatory 2 month rest period. I would guess this is probably an intai situation, as he has a kabu and is going to make an outstanding sumo elder.
  • Enho – Shoulder, thigh, whatever – this guy is banged up but has enough heart to fight anyhow.

To fans new to Tachiai (and welcome, we are glad you are here!) – we tend to talk about any basho as a series of 3 acts, each of which are constructed to have specific tone and desired outcome. Each act lasts 5 days, and their job is to take us from a wide open field of eager, healthy competitors to a lone champion on day 15.

  • Act 1 – We knock the ring rust off of the rikishi and see who is genki and who is not. I expect a great deal of ring rust in the first 3 days.
  • Act 2 – We can finally start thinking about a leader board as we head into the middle weekend, and we start to sort the competitors from the survivors from the damned.
  • Act 3 – The intimate sumo test of endurance sorts the make/kachi koshi roster, pits the upper ranks against one another, and crowns a yusho winner.

With that, it’s on day 1!

What We Are Watching Day 1

Kotoyuki vs Terutsuyoshi – Mr 5 x 5 (so named because he is about as wide as he is tall) managed to wobble his way back to the top division. He starts the tournament against pixie salt-blaster Terutsuyoshi, who is at the bottom rung of Makuuchi with another chance to stay in the top division. After a great run in Juryo, Terutsuyoshi looked a notch less genki in May – will the heat of Nagoya bring him back to life?

Kaisei vs Yago – Is Kaisei healthy this time? His big body is more than adequate to just out-jumbo most rikishi in the bottom of Makuuchi. But I think we are going to see massive ring-rust this match, with both Kaisei and Yago likely looking clumsy, slow and uncertain.

Toyonoshima vs Enho – Welcome back to the top division once again to former sekiwake Toyonoshima, who refuses to give up and keeps fighting onward. His first match is against an injured Fire-Pixie Enho, who holds a 4-0 lead over Toyonoshima. This match will give fans some idea of how banged up Enho really is.

Chiyomaru vs Sadanoumi – I expect this match to be extra rusty, as both men tend to have slow starts to any tournament, historically the advantage goes to Chiyomaru (9-3), but big Chiyo is also typically one of the most rusty fellows on the banzuke.

Tochiozan vs Kagayaki – Both of these rikishi suffered terrible performance in May, and find themselves in the bottom third of Makuuchi for Nagoya. Both of them are technical rikishi, but Tochiozan’s vast experience and superior range of technique will probably prevail over Mr Fundamentals, Kagayaki.

Nishikigi vs Takagenji – Takagenji’s first match ranked in the top division. He’s had a tough fight to get here, but he’s ranked all the way up at M10 – a testament on how jumbled the promotion / demotion graph was at the end of Natsu. Nishikigi is still smiling and looking at photos of his magical holiday in the joi-jin, but his sumo seems to have faded a bit. This is their first ever match up.

Kotoeko vs Daishoho – After displaying Shodai level banzuke luck (he held M15W for 3 tournaments with losing records), he is finally ranked a bit further up the roster and finds himself in a test of who is ready to rumble against Daishoho. Two of a handful of lower Maegashira rikishi to kachi-koshi in May, Kotoeko and Daishoho get a chance to tune up on day 1.

Shohozan vs Okinoumi – By accounts on social media (thanks Melissa), Shohozan broke his phone this week, and the typically dour faced rikishi is possibly even more sour than ever. This is actually an interesting match as both rikishi are highly skilled veterans. Shohozan will try to keep things mobile, and Okinoumi will want to go chest to chest. With ring rust and the traditionally slippery Nagoya dohyo, it could be messy.

Onosho vs Tomokaze – Still no make-koshi for Tomokaze, who is now the senior ranked rikishi from Oguruma (Yoshikaze fans like myself note this with sadness). Now the lowest ranked tadpole, Onosho is still struggling to get his sumo back following an extensive kyujo for knee repairs, an even that his friend Takakeisho is sadly suffering now. I predict that both of these men will be in the joi-jin for September, and today is all about getting the ready for that duty in 60 days.

Myogiryu vs Shimanoumi – Shimanoumi had a slow start to his debut Makuuchi tournament, but rallied and finished strongly, earning him a Maegashira 6 slot. Myogiryu spent all of Natsu fighting well but losing, a sad form of sumo that sadly too many rikishi adopted in May. This is their first ever career match.

Chiyotairyu vs Takarafuji – If Takarafuji can keep the match going longer than 20 seconds, he can take Chiyotairyu down when he loses stamina. But of course we will see Chiyotairyu trend towards his canon ball tachiai. Mix with a liberal dusting of ring rust and it could make for some very sloppy sumo.

Kotoshogiku vs Ichinojo – I think a big question for a lot of sumo fans is what kind of state is Ichinojo in? The Mongolian Monster is hot or cold, and when he’s hot he’s not beatable without some kind of sorcery. We get our first peek today when Kotoshogiku is going to have to try something other than his traditional hug-n-chug. Ichinojo is just too enormous.

Meisei vs Daieisho – Daieisho followed the Myogiryu pattern of fighting well but losing during Natsu, while Meisei battled to a 10-5 win, and I expect that we may see Meisei pick up where he left off. He is not prone to ring rust, and I would guess he spent the intervening 8 weeks training hard and getting ready.

Shodai vs Tamawashi – I really want to see Tamawashi bundle, tape and Fedex Shodai back to Kumamoto for Monday AM delivery, but when Shodai gets in trouble with an oshi-zumo specialist, he turns on some kind of chaos-generation engine that causes all kinds of odd things to happen. I tend to call this Shodai’s “Cartoon Sumo”, and it means Tamawashi needs to be careful.

Mitakeumi vs Aoiyama – Aoiyama tends to get quite rusty, but so does Mitakeumi. We can be certain Mitakeumi will try to dodge the nodowa at the tachiai, and close the distance to Aoiyama’s enormous pasty chest in an effort to shut down the haymakers from Aoiyama. If he can get close enough, it’s Mitakeumi’s match.

Endo vs Tochinoshin – I expect Tochinoshin to be extra rusty, as he traveled back to Georgia during the break, and I think he’s not quite a tuned up as he would normally be. This is dangerous when facing Endo, who is an extremely technical rikishi who likes to pre-visualize his matches. Tochinoshin will go left hard at the tachiai, and I expect Endo to use this to his advantage.

Hokutofuji vs Takayasu – We will get an early read on how healthy Takayasu is, when he takes on the highly maneuverable Hokutofuji on day 1. These two are evenly matched, and their 4-4 career records underscores that. If Takayasu wants to win his first yusho, he needs to rack up the white stars week 1 against his lower ranked opponents.

Goeido vs Asanoyama – As stated above, Goeido’s condition is unknown, and presumed genki. Meanwhile we know Asanoyama suffered a concussion during a training session with Yokozuna Hakuho. This either left him somewhat impaired in action speed and reflex, or really motivated him apply maximum beat-down on everyone. I expect Asanoyama will go for the mawashi early, but I am sure Goeido knows that, and I think he will go for a frontal (mae-mitsu) grip during the tachiai.

Abi vs Hakuho – I am sure Abi is coming into this one excited to take on the dai-Yokozuna. I am also sure that this is the absolute best chance anyone is going to have to drop Hakuho. While Abi-zumo is not going to do much to phase Hakuho, with an extended kyujo, I expect Hakuho’s reflexes to be off. Good luck Abi.

Kakuryu vs Ryuden – A first look at Kakuryu, and to what extent (if any) his back is going to impact his performance. If we se him moving in reverse, it’s going to be a short basho for sumo’s other Yokozuna.

Natsu Day 12 Preview

After day 11, it’s going to be a crazy run to the finish. For the most part I expect it to be down to Kakuryu and Tochinoshin now, unless one of them gets (more) hurt. I think both Ozeki will make their 8, but it’s clear they are not at 100% this basho, and are just looking to survive. I would urge Takayasu to take special care with Abi today, he could very well surprise you.

Speaking of surprises, for reasons that we can never know, Ichinojo returns to the dohyo today. Already make-koshi, I am going to guess he is looking to soften the drop down the banzuke for July. I doubt his knee is any better, but as we have seen many times, a rikishi will return hoping a few more wins will help, and just cause himself more problems. He is, however, welcome fodder for the rotation through the top ranks.

Natsu Leaderboard

How’s this for novel – Asanoyama sits alone atop the leader board! I am quite sure they will find some opponent that will put dirt on him once or twice, but for a young guy like him, this is quite an event! With both Ozeki losing day 11, they fall off the pace and only Kotoeko remains 2 behind the leader.

Leader: Asanoyama
Chasers: Kakuryu, Tochinoshin
Hunt Group: Kotoeko

4 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 12

Tokushoryu vs Takagenji – With Ichinojo back, the banzuke imbalance has returned, and we will see a visitor from Juryo. Today it’s the runaway yusho leader for Juryo, Takagenji. I am going to assume that Takagenji will make his Makuuchi debut on July, and we will see “Cab Forward” Tokushoryu back in Juryo.

Enho vs Onosho – Enho is still farming for #8, and this is going to be an interesting match for him. Onosho is big, round, and tends to move a lot. He has balance issues these days, so there is that to work with. But should Onosho be able to connect with his pushing attack, 99 kg is not going to take a lot of force to get headed skyward. First time ever match for these two.

Chiyomaru vs Tomokaze – Both men are at 5-6, and I have to think that the advantage is going to go to Tomokaze, mostly due to his better foot placement and balance. Chiyomaru will come out strong, slapping and swatting at Tomokaze. All Tomokaze has to do is stay upright and moving until Chiyomaru runs out of steam.

Shodai vs Tochiozan – Shodai going for kachi-koshi today against the veteran Tochiozan. Shodai showed a lot of endurance, balance and strength against Shohozan on day 11, and I would assume that Tochiozan will focus more on center-mass than Shohozan did.

Ishiura vs Yoshikaze – Yoshikaze is make koshi already, but I doubt he has given up, no matter how rough his sumo looks. Ishiura wants to be more mobile than his opponent, but Yoshikaze is typically excellent at move and strike sumo.

Myogiryu vs Nishikigi – Both rikishi are 4-7, and the loser walks away make-koshi. Myogiryu comes directly from a kinboshi against Yokozuna Kakuryu, maybe he will bring some of that fighting spirit to this match.

Asanoyama vs Tamawashi – Yusho race front runner Asanoyama faces a master of oshi-zumo today, and chances of Asanoyama leaving the dohyo with win 11 are fairly slim. Should Tamawashi prevail, it would mark his kachi-koshi.

Hokutofuji vs Endo – Another “loser gets make-koshi” match between two rikishi with a lot of potential who could not seem to muster their winning form this basho. Endo holds a 4-2 career advantage, and I think that will carry on in day 12 action.

Daieisho vs Mitakeumi – Mitakeumi finds himself 2 wins short of his 8th, with 4 matches left. I am sure he wants back in the Sekiwake slot, but his sumo has seemed a notch lower than some of his better performances in the past year.

Ichinojo vs Aoiyama – Clash of the Titans. All we need now is Russel Crowe to shout “Release the Kraken!”. This much mass in motion on the dohyo, I think the chances are high that one of these rikishi is going to get hurt. Ichinojo holds a 7-3 career advantage.

Meisei vs Tochinoshin – The Ozekiwake needs one more to resume his role at sumo’s second highest rank; can he take #10 from Meisei? It’s a first-time meeting between these two.

Abi vs Takayasu – Takayasu’s sumo is back in chaos mode, and that is good news for Abi. A Takayasu who tries to start a match with a bull-charge and a shoulder blast really works well for Abi-zumo. A win today would make it 8 for Takayasu.

Goeido vs Takarafuji – Goeido holds a 13-5 career advantage over Takarafuji, but where Takarafuji seems incredibly patient, Goeido seems to lose patience about 10 seconds into any match, and tries anything that comes to mind. Goeido will try to close the day on win 8 at the tachiai.

Ryuden vs Kakuryu – I do hope that the loss to Myogiryu re-focused the Yokozuna, and that we see him revert to his winning form. Ryuden’s sumo is certainly ascendant, but I have confidence that Kakuryu will be able to stalemate him for a time, find a mistake, and exploit it for the win.

Natsu Day 9 Preview

As lksumo has pointed out, the day 8 results have thrown what had been a fairly orderly basho into chaos. I love it. In addition to defeats of both yusho race leaders, we seem to have a possible re-kyujo of shin-ozeki Takakeisho. I can almost guarantee that the YDC is going to complain about it should he re-kyujo. To some extent, they have a point. Stay off the dohyo unless you are fit to compete. I give Takakeisho a lot of latitude myself, as he is young and has a foreshortened sense of the long road that could be / should be ahead of him. Should he decide he is out for good, Tochinoshin would get the fusen-sho white star, and his kachi-koshi by default win.

There are 3 leaders now in the Makuuchi yusho arasoi, each one of them is far from invincible, and everyone knows that. This makes the week 2 matches against the Ozeki and Yokozuna that much more meaningful, as any of them, or all of them, could be taken down again. For Goeido and Takayasu, they are still walking a narrow path to their 8, but each needs just 3 more wins to avoid kadoban. For Takayasu, I forsee trouble on day 9.

Natsu Leaderboard

Are you ready for this? Because this is how nuts it became.

Leaders: Kakuryu, Tochinoshin, Asanoyama
Chaser: Abi, Ryuden, Enho, Kotoeko
Hunt Group: Goeido, Takayasu, Mitakeumi, Shodai, Shohozan, Tochiozan, Daishoho

7 Matches Remain

The first reader who dares to comment “Shodai Yusho!” Is going to be fined 1000 Genki points.

What We Are Watching Day 9

Toyonoshima vs Enho – Sumo fans can’t get enough Enho, myself included. Veteran Toyonoshima has yet to beat him, so we may see more pixie magic on Monday.

Chiyomaru vs Terutsuyoshi – Enho’s day 8 match makes a good template for a small guy to tie someone like Chiyomaru in knots, so let’s see if Terutsuyoshi can enact a similar battle plan. Just don’t slow down, don’t stand still and never be in any one spot for more than 1 second.

Ishiura vs Yago – Ishiura is trying to copy some of Enho’s fire, but he’s still a work in progress. Yago is a giant who packs a lot of power but is not capable of rapid lateral motion. He’s leagues better than Chiyomaru, but it should be possible to keep Yago from getting too stable on his feet, and use that to divert his own energy into Ishiura’s offensive moves.

Kotoeko vs Tochiozan – I am really looking forward to this match, as they are basically the same guy (much like Ikioi and Ryuden) about 5 years apart. That 5 year gap leaves Kotoeko employing a lot of frantic energy, and Tochiozan employing a lot of guile and cunning. Kotoeko won their only prior meeting.

Shodai vs Kagayaki – Whatever is plaguing Kagayaki is not easing up, and if Shodai can continue to put that much energy into his post-tachiai sumo, it’s going to be a fun match. I am sure Kagayaki will consult his mental catalog of great sumo, and then Shodai will unleash some sort of strong random stuff and leave Mr Fundamentals stumped. Shodai leads their career series 3-1.

Onosho vs Yoshikaze – I can only imagine that Onosho re-watched that match with Meisei in slow motion a few dozen times, each time wondering what he could have done differently to prevent that whole attack from blowing up in his face. Shake it off Jr Tadpole! You have to face a faltering Yoshikaze on day 9. This match makes me sad on many levels.

Takarafuji vs Nishikigi – Let me guess, Nishikigi lets Takarafuji get morozashi, then pins his arms and uses that to push Takarafuji around like a hand truck.

Asanoyama vs Ryuden – Yusho co-leader Asanoyama faces shin-Ikioi in the first match of the second half. Asanoyama has lost the last 5 consecutive matches to Ryuden. But I don’t think I have seen Asanoyama in better form, ever. These guys are going to be joi-jin mainstays next year, I would guess. So let’s hope this turns into a great sumo rivalry.

Tamawashi vs Daieisho – After putting dirt on the lone surviving Yokozuna, it’s time for Tamawashi to patrol the upper Maegashira ranks. He holds a 5-2 advantage over Daieisho, so I am starting to wonder if we might see Tamawashi kachi-koshi and possibly a candidate for san’yaku yet again.

Endo vs Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu is in a pretty deep hole, and I want him to rally starting day 9 and press hard. Endo can execute amazing technical sumo as we saw on day 8, but sometimes there is no remedy for 400 pounds of high-energy rikishi on a collision course.

Hokutofuji vs Mitakeumi – In spite of what you may assume, they are fairly evenly matched with a 5-4 career advantage for Mitakeumi. Hokutofuji is still a bit hit-or-miss with his sumo, so I am going to assume that if the gyoji can keep out of the way, we will see Mitakeumi inch closer to his 8th.

Aoiyama vs Kotoshogiku – Both of these men are in a deep hole in terms of win/loss, but frankly I would rather see Kotoshogiku make it to kachi-koshi right now. Give the old guy one more run at the top as a way to say thank you for being one of the best in a generation.

Goeido vs Abi – I am going to state that this match is going to be over quickly. If Goeido can get a proper launch off, it’s going to be unlikely for Abi to stop his forward pressure. This is why I think we will see at least one matta, to help dither Goeido’s timing.

Takakeisho vs Tochinoshin – I am going to assume this one won’t happen. The story is all over the Japanese press that Takakeisho will return to kyujo status, but no official word from the NHK as of right now. But if it does happen, I think we are going to see Tochinoshin struggle to land a grip, and Takakeisho possibly blow out his knee, joining Ura on the “could have been” list of sumo. Update: NHK has announced the withdrawal. -lksumo https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20190520/k10011922041000.html

Myogiryu vs Takayasu – You might think “Maegashira 5 vs Ozeki, this is a gimme”. Well, Takayasu has a 7-11 Myogiryu deficit. Granted, all of their recent meetings have been all Takayasu, but we know for certain that Myogiryu knows how to beat him. Takayasu needs 3 more to pick up his kachi-koshi.

Okinoumi vs Kakuryu – Yokozuna Kakuryu’s day 8 loss has punctured the illusion of superior invincibility that tends to surround sumo’s Yokozuna. With that mental barrier broken (both in Kakuryu’s mind and the mind of the rest of his opponents), the chances of his tasting clay again have gone up. Okinoumi is only in fair condition this basho, so I am not looking for him to produce an upset on day 9.

Natsu Day 8 Highlights

Endo – The Golden

What better time to really shake up the basho than the middle day? The first week was nothing but warm up, a prelude if you will to the real contest that starts now. And change was afoot in the Kokugikan, with losses dealt to fan-favorites up and down the banzuke. Some of that will be covered in today’s “Ones to Watch” post, some of it… Now.

Day 8 Highlights

Daishoho defeats Terutsuyoshi – Terutsuyoshi tries to be as low as possible, and leaves himself wide open for Daishoho to apply lateral and downward force. The result is a nicely executed katasukashi, with Daishoho rendering a look of both satisfaction and amusement that Terutsuyoshi thought that what he was doing was going to work.

Kotoeko vs Tokushoryu – Tokushoryu suffers again from his “cab forward design”, as Kotoeko expertly uses Tokushoryu’s propensity to fall forward to great effect.

Enho defeats Chiyomaru – Everyone was hyped for this match, and it did not disappoint. Enho does a masterful job of not staying still long enough for Chiyomaru to do anything rather than get frustrated. Enho grabs a leg and helps Chiyomaru out. As I love to say, being enormous is not necessarily a sumo tactic. Especially if you fight Enho.

Shimanoumi defeats Ishiura – Ishiura tries a hit-grab-shift, but Shimanoumi stays focused on Ishiura’s center-mass and rolls with him, never allowing Ishiura to generate any real offense.

Shohozan defeats Yago – In the battle of the giant heads, it’s great to note that you have Yago expending a lot of energy flailing away, and you have Shohozan who stays compact and low. He keeps Yago in front of him, and is very efficient with his sumo.

Sadanoumi defeats Tochiozan – Sadanoumi gets the job done by repeatedly overwhelming all attempts by Tochiozan to change the pace and form of the match to his terms. Sadanoumi works quickly, and keeps changing the attack profile, and always moving forward.

Shodai defeats Tomokaze – There are days when (as readers note) I think Shodai is a complete chump who stumbled into the top division, but he’s so nice and so polite no one wants to ask him to leave. Then there are days when this form of Shodai shows up and you go “daayyymm”. True to form, Shodai’s tachiai is terrible, but after that it’s ka-boom!

Meisei defeats Onosho – Watch this match in slow-motion. Now watch it again. It’s over in a blink of an eye, but you can see Meisei instinctively react and execute with perfection after Onosho lands a forceful tachiai, and looks ready to bowl Meisei over.

Asanoyama defeats Takarafuji – It was not flashy, it was not amazing, but Asanoyama got the job done. He is looking really sharp this basho, and his fans hope that he’s made a step change to his sumo.

Kagayaki defeats Yoshikaze – again we don’t see much offense from Yoshikaze, but sadly we did not see much offense from Kagayaki either. This was a kind of pointless match where they both could have taken a kuroboshi and gone to the pub instead.

Ryuden defeats Nishikigi – Nishikigi still showing up, but whatever kami had a hold of him earlier this year is back in whatever massive tree it normally inhabits. Ryuden keeps plugging away, and we will see him near the top of the rank and file in July, I would guess.

Daieisho defeats Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu has nothing to bring to this match, no canon-ball tachiai, no blistering tsuppari, he’s just not brining his best sumo. Daieisho does his part by driving hard and focusing on Chiyotairyu’s expansive upper body.

Abi defeats Hokutofuji – Matta, Matta, ker-blam! Hokutofuji shuts down Abi-zumo for a moment, but then Hokutofuji decides to try a pull / slap down, and reaches high. This opens up his chest and here comes the double arm shove from Abi. Hokutofuji needs a formula to win against this guy.

Endo defeats Tochinoshin – Fans know Endo is a master technician who many times can’t quite execute his brilliant sumo plans. But then you have today where he sacrifices a chance at Tochinoshin landing his lethal left in order to latch a mae-mitsu with the right hand. He mixes that with a pivot and a bit of luck (Tochinoshin loses traction) and its uwatedashinage magic at the shikiri-sen. Tochinoshin picks up his first loss.

Aoiyama defeats Takakeisho – On one hand, I could complain that Man-mountain Aoiyama executed a henka like a chump. Or I could look at this as the easiest way to defeat Takakeisho without taking much of a chance at further injuring him. One thing is clear, the path to kachi-koshi just got a lot more risky for Takakeisho.

Takayasu defeats Okinoumi – Okinoumi made this harder than it should have been, but I liked it because it was an excellent showcase for Takayasu’s really outstanding yotsu abilities. I am sticking with the theory that Takayasu is low-function now due to injury.

Goeido defeats Mitakeumi – Goeido gets a lucky break when the tata-gyoji scampers to a bad position on the dohyo and arrests Mitakeumi’s forward pressure, allowing Goeido to rally and carry the match. Truth be told, Goeido looked sharp this match, putting in doubt my theory that his ankle is back in poor shape.

Tamawashi defeats Kakuryu – Tamawashi focuses, pushes and drives. He is rewarded with his 3rd kinboshi and a storm of zabuton flying at the dohyo. Kakuryu takes his first trip to the clay, and suddenly the chase for the Emperor’s Cup is blown wide open.

With no rikishi now undefeated, the stage is set for a brutal brawl to the finish, it’s anyone’s guess who will take the yusho.