After the Nagoya basho, I reviewed the performance of the wrestlers who debuted at Ms60 under the Makushita tsukedashi system after it was changed at the end of 2023. We then followed them at Aki. Let’s take a brief look at how our protagonists fared at Kyushu. Of the eleven rikishi in this group, ten started the basho, and nine finished it. Ms49 Gyotoku was absent for the entire tournament after withdrawing in September; apparently he’s been suffering from myocarditis. And fan favorite J3 Mita injured his knee in his day 2 bout against Kagayaki and missed the rest of the tournament. It’s not clear just how severe the injury was and when we might expect to see him again on the dohyo.

All nine full participants posted winning records, and six of them did so while fighting at their career-high rank! M5e Yoshinofuji, the rikishi formerly known as Kusano, went 9-6, posting his 10th winning record in 10 basho and earning his second technique prize. He narrowly missed out on a sanyaku debut by losing his day 15 bout against Takayasu but should be right near the top of the maegashira rankings in January. Word is that he was injured in training prior to the tournament, and his participation was in doubt. He fought much of the basho with a heavily taped calf, which makes me even more eager to see what he can accomplish when fully fit.

J12w Asasuiryu (the brother of Asakoryu; both started their careers under their family name Ishizaki) rebounded from his 7-8 sekitori debut with a 9-6 performance. I expect him to be ranked around J7 for Hatsu. Juryo debutant J13w Fujiryoga (a shikona change from Goshima) did even better, taking the yusho with a 13-2 record. A logjam at the top of Juryo will limit his rise to around J3, but he will have a good shot at earning a Makuuchi debut for Haru with another strong performance. One of his rivals for the Hatsu Juryo crown may well be Ms15w Kazuma, who got injured in his first basho in July 2024, sat out four tournaments, and has dominated since coming back, with the Jonokuchi yusho in May, the Sandanme yusho in September, and now the Makushita yusho in November. His 7-0 record from the last spot in the extended promotion zone will see him make his sekitori debut when the Juryo promotions are announced later today.

Ms11w Matsui went 4-3 and will see a bump in rank to around his Ms8 career high. Ms14w Fukuzaki debuted alongside heya-mate Fujiryoga and kept pace with him until Aki, where he hit the single-digit Makushita wall hard, finishing with a 2-5 record. He came back with a strong 6-1, losing only to the eventual champion Kazuma. This performance should take him to the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone, with a shot at Juryo for Haru. Ms16e Hanaoka, who debuted in May, went 4-3 to post his fourth-straight kachi-koshi that will see him rise to the extended promotion zone. He’ll be joined there by the most recent debutant, Ms24w Ryusho, who improved on his first two 5-2 basho with a 6-1 performance, losing only to Kazuma in the yusho final. Finally, Jd12 Kakueizan (originally Urayama), who missed July and September with a knee injury, went 7-0 in his first comeback basho, losing the 5th-division playoff to heya-mate Ryuho. He will continue his journey in Sandanme in January, when we should also get some new Ms60TD debutants for the first time since Ryusho started in July.

Here’s what to look for on the final day.

The Yusho Race

Only the two final bouts matter: Aonishiki (11-3) vs. Kotozakura and the Yokozuna clash between Onosato (11-3) and Hoshoryu (11-3). A win by Aonoshiki gets him a spot in a playoff, while a loss eliminates him from contention. His Ozeki chances may also hang in the balance—the shimpan department has announced that they’ll hold a special meeting to discuss a potential promotion after the basho. The head-to-head favors the Sekiwake 2-1. The outcome of the last regulation bout will either determine the other playoff participant or the outright winner. The head-to-head in regulation favors Hoshoryu 7-1, with Onosato also winning their most recent meeting in the September playoff.

Sanyaku

K1e Takanosho (5-9) will vacate his spot. S1w Oho (6-8) and K1w Takayasu (7-7) both need final-day wins to stay in the named ranks. And as discussed above, there is a chance that Aonishiki’s spot could open up via promotion. So we could have anywhere between one and four new sanyaku members. M2e Kirishima (10-4) should be a lock for the first open spot, regardless of his day 15 result. The other contenders are M2w Wakamotoharu (8-6), M5e Yoshinofuji (9-5), M3w Ura (8-6), and perhaps M8e Ichiyamamoto (10-4). Yoshinofuji fights Takayasu tomorrow in what looks like an exchange bout. Kirishima faces Ura, and Wakamotoharu takes on Ichiyamamoto.

Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges

Since Andy asked:

• Makuuchi demotion queue: Meisei, Shonannoumi, Sadanoumi, Oshoumi, Asakoryu.
• Juryo promotion queue: Asahakuryu, Asanoyama, Hatsuyama, Kotoeiho, Fujiseiun, Daiseizan.

Meisei, Shonannoumi, and Sadanoumi are fully booked on the Juryo barge, with nonrefundable tickets. In their place, Asanoyama will make his long-awaited return to the top division, where he’ll be joined by his heya-mate Asahakuryu and by Hatsuyama, both of whom will be making their Makuuchi debuts. The final two spots will almost certainly go to the winners of the two day 15 crossover bouts that pit Kotoeiho against Asakoryu and Oshoumi against Fujiseiun. Daiseizan has rapidly dropped from first to 6th in the promotion queue and should be out of luck even with a win—which would be a rare miss for a 10-5 J3, but there’s no room at the inn.

The yusho race has been decided. Kazuma accepted Ryusho’s invitation to make the final a yotsu bout, with both fighters going for an inside left. Kazuma wrapped up his opponent and moved him toward the tawara. Ryusho used his lateral mobility to avoid immediate defeat, but Kazuma kept him centered and powered him over the edge to win by yorikiri. Kazuma took full advantage of his Ms15w ranking—the last spot in the extended promotion zone—to earn a fast-track Juryo promotion. His career record is now 31-2, not counting absences, and he should be an early favorite for the Hatsu Juryo yusho.

A bit of bonus coverage: Kaki won the Sandanme yusho, becoming only the 8th rikishi to start his career with three straight yusho. We’ll see Kaki in Makushita, and hopefully in the yusho bracket, in January. Something about his build and style reminds me of Kusano/Yoshinofuji.

Of the ten rikishi ranked in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone, one retired (Endo), and six others are make-koshi. Ms1w Kyokukaiyu (4-2) and Ms3w Dewanoryu (5-1) are set to join Kazuma in Juryo at Hatsu regardless of the results of their final bouts. The only other rikishi who still has a chance at a winning record is Ms5w Seihakuho, 3-3, but at that rank, he is not likely to go up with a 4-3 record unless there is an extra opening in Juryo that has to be filled.

On the Juryo side, injured J14e Shiden (5-7-1) is guaranteed to drop, and he should be joined in Makushita by hapless rookie J13e Himukamaru (3-10) and injury victim J3e Mita (0-3-8). I don’t think J10e Hakuyozan (4-9) can pass either of them in the demotion queue even if he loses twice, though if he loses tomorrow, I would expect him to be pitted against Seihakuho on senshuraku in a potential exchange bout.

Thanks for following Tachiai’s November coverage of Makushita. With the yusho race decided and the promotion picture largely settled, the next update will likely come after the basho concludes. I also plan to take another look at how the Ms60TD debutants of the last couple of years fared in Kyushu.

In the first semifinal, Ryusho managed to grab the belt and overpowered Ohata with a nifty throw. In the second, Kazuma took his time against Daiyusho, being careful to avoid any mistakes, but was in full control throughout the bout and won by an inevitable-seeming oshidashi. So Ryusho and Kazuma will clash on day 13 for all the marbles; Kazuma has the added incentive of Juryo promotion on the line. It should be an interesting matchup between two Ms60TD rikishi, one a skillful 270-pound technician and the other a 400-pound wrecking ball. Ryusho’s career record is 16-4, while Kazuma’s is 30-2, not counting absences.

A bit of bonus Makushita coverage: Ms17 Enho got the jump on Kamito at the tachiai, grabbed the belt with both hands, lifted his opponent off his feet, and won by a powerful yoritaoshi, clinching his kachi-koshi and securing a spot in the extended promotion zone for Hatsu.

It was carnage in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone. Of the ten rikishi ranked there, one retired (Endo), and five others are make-koshi after today. That leaves only Ms1w Kyokukaiyu (4-2) and Ms3w Dewanoryu (5-1) with realistic promotion chances. The only other rikishi who still have a chance at a winning record are the Ms5 duo of Kazuto and Seihakuho, both 3-3, and neither is likely to go up with a 4-3 record unless there is an extra opening in Juryo that has to be filled.

On the Juryo side, we have two rikishi with records that are already likely to send them down: injury victim Ms3e Mita (0-3-8) and hapless rookie J13e Himukamaru (2-9). J10w Tohakuryu (3-8) is next in the demotion queue, followed by J14e Shiden (5-6), who looked to be injured at the conclusion of today’s loss. With at most 3 strong promotion candidates, everyone else is probably okay.

The only relevant action tomorrow is Kazuto visiting Juryo to fight Tohakuryu, so look for the next update on day 13.