Since our first post covering the third division, the 4th round of bouts has been completed. Here’s how it played out:

In notable bouts, promising newcomer Ms60TD Wakanofuji was upset by Tsurubayashi, who has never risen above Makushita in 100 career basho. Tochimaru used a big ole henka to get past an overeager Matsui Arashifuji, while Seihakuho Toshinofuji took a big step toward Juryo by getting the better of Mineyaiba on the belt. And Enho displayed excellent footwork in keeping Haruyama moving around the dohyo until the latter couldn’t keep up and tumbled to the dirt. So here’s what’s in store on Day 9:

The two highest-ranked 4-0 men, Isegahama heya-mates Toshinofuji and Enho, can’t face each other, so they will instead face the next two undefeated rikishi. Former sekitori Tochimaru has already eliminated Kaki and Arashifuji from the race; let’s see if Toshinofuji can figure out an answer to his unique style. Tochimaru will do his best to keep his opponent off his belt with his rapid-fire tsuppari and finish him off with a pull-push attack; if Toshinofuji can survive that and get on the belt, the bout should go his way. Enho defeated Gonoumi by yoritaoshi in their one previous meeting in November. I don’t have much to say about the two undercard bouts.

Toshinofuji leads the promotion race, though he could use another win to pretty much guarantee a Juryo debut. Enho, of course, must finish 7-0 to make his long-awaited sekitori return. I would love nothing more than for the two to go undefeated and face off in a title playoff. In the rest of the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone, no one is exactly beating down the door:

As a very rough rule of thumb, a 4-3 record usually suffices at Ms1-Ms2, a 5-2 is needed at Ms3-Ms4, and a 6-1 at Ms5, though of course this depends on banzuke luck and the demotion picture in Juryo. In any case, everyone except Toshinofuji has either been eliminated from contention already or needs at least two more wins to stake a claim.

Welcome to Tachiai’s coverage of third-division yusho and promotion races. Three rounds of bouts have been completed, and 15 rikishi made it through unscathed. Here’s the yusho bracket:

Normally, the undefeated men would be paired up in rank order on days 7 and 8. However, the top trio hails from Isegahama beya: Toshinofuji (Seihakuho), Arashifuji (Matsui), and Enho. So they will instead face the next three undefeated rikishi. Arashifuji and Enho are the only rikishi in the extended promotion zone (Ms6-Ms15) who can earn automatic Juryo promotion by going 7-0; a sekitori return has been Enho’s long-standing goal for his comeback. Toshinofuji’s opponent, Mineyaiba, is a near-sekitori-caliber rikishi on his own comeback from injury. Arashifuji gets former sekitori Tochimaru, whose unique style is characterized by rapid-fire tsuppari. Enho will fight Haruyama, a 25-year-old prospect whose progress has been stalled in Makushita for the past couple of years.

I think that covers most of the notable names. Our latest impressive Ms60 tsukedashi debutant, Wakanofuji, will round out the round of sixteen by facing Sd11e Tsurubayashi. Come back on Sunday for the next update on the yusho race.

I just returned from an off-the-grid break and finally got to see the January banzuke. I have to say, the Crystal Ball was clear this time! Of the 42 predicted ranks, 30 were exactly right, with an additional 4 rikishi at the correct rank but on the wrong side. That’s a Guess the Banzuke score of 64, good enough for 3rd place out of over 360 entries. For the second straight basho, the Crystal Ball will be ranked number one overall in banzuke predictions over the past year.

The Crystal Ball got all 8 sanyaku rikishi exactly right, as well as the 3 exchanges between Makuuchi and Juryo. No placement was off by more than a rank and a half, and that was Shodai’s surprisingly lenient demotion from M5w to M8e after his 4-11 record at Kyushu. I thought I was already going out on a limb by only dropping him to M9w in my prediction. This also affected my predictions for Gonoyama and Roga. The other trouble area for the Crystal Ball was M4e-M5e. I thought Daieisho, Atamifuji, and Tamawashi could reasonably be placed in almost any order, and the banzuke committee went with one that was very different from mine. The rest of the differences from the prediction amounted to 3 half-rank swaps.

We have one new Ozeki (Aonishiki) and six rikishi fighting at their career-high ranks—M1e Ichiyamamoto, M1w Yoshinofuji, M7w Fujinokawa, M10e Tokihayate, and the two Makuuchi debutants, M17e Asahakuryu and M17w Hatsuyama. Hakuoho has been renamed Hakunofuji, and Asanoyama is back in the top division. By my count, no fewer than 13 Makuuchi yusho winners will be fighting in the top division in January (plus Takerufuji in juryo). It’s now less than two weeks until the start of the Hatsu basho! Let’s see how everyone fares at their new ranks.

Apologies for the lack of a banzuke preview post. Predicting this one proved extremely challenging, and by the time I got my thoughts organized, the Guess The Banzuke deadline was upon us. Due to the holidays, the banzuke comes out a week earlier than usual, on December 22, three weeks prior to the start of the January tournament. Here is my official prediction. I won’t go through the rationale; suffice it to say, I am confident in only about one-third of the placements, and at least a dozen decisions I made could easily go the other way. Other than the Yokozuna and Ozeki, Churanoumi at M5w seems like just about the only certainty; now watch the banzuke committee put someone else there. Look forward to everyone’s thoughts in the comments.