The full slate of bouts is here. A few highlights:
The basho is running screaming into the final weekend, and it looks like it will probably come down to Hakuho vs Kakuryu for the hardware in the final match of the final day. This is a fairly decent way to end a basho, and I think most fans would be satisfied, in spite of the fact that we had the entirety of the Ozeki corps kyujo, and one Yokozuna banged up.
On the way to day 15, there are some rikishi who were doing well in the first few days that seem to have stalled out, and I am sure their fans are worried. This would include Hokutofuji, Abi, and Enho. This underscores my belief that we are going to have an exceptionally brutal final two days.
Tomokaze drops out, and it’s almost down exclusively to the two Yokozuna. If Terutsuyoshi wins day 13, I would guess they will put him against someone in San’yaku to make sure that the chances of a Maegashira 16w taking the yusho go closer to zero.
Leader: Kakuryu
Chaser: Hakuho
Hunt Group: Terutsuyoshi
3 Matches Remain
Tochiozan vs Nishikigi – Both are make-koshi, and will avoid the Darwin death match syndrome that seems to be in the wings for so many of our upper division rikishi. This is to figure out who is going to get dropped how far down the banzuke. If the bulk of the top division finish 7-8 or 8-7, it’s going to make for a very interesting banzuke.
Sadanoumi vs Takagenji – Because I think that a bloody final weekend is what is in store, I am going to guess that Takagenji, how having secured his 8th loss, is going to rally and hand Sadanoumi a black star for day 13, bringing him close to the perilous 7-7 final day score.
Kotoeko vs Enho – Enho looks like he may have injured himself on day 12. He’s dropped the last 2 in a row, and I know he wants to hit 8 today and avoid the Darwin matches on day 15. Kotoeko has his 8, but he may want to run up the score.
Yago vs Daishoho – Yago has likely been condemned to ride the slow, smelly barge back to Juryo with our dear Yoshikaze and beloved Kaisei. But he can still help give Daishoho his 8th loss.
Shohozan vs Toyonoshima – Two tired, hurt veterans with 5-7 records going head to head. One of them will get a make-koshi today. The match of eternal sadness.
Kotoyuki vs Okinoumi – It could be expected that Kotoyuki will jump around like a mad penguin on a hot plate; I imagine Okinoumi will once again try to grapple with Mr 5×5 and slow the tempo of the match down. If he can put the match into that mode, he will probably pick up a much needed 7th win.
Onosho vs Terutsuyoshi – Somehow Onosho has pulled to 6-6, but he has his first ever match against compact sumo atomic reactor Terutsuyoshi, who is not the kind of fellow who would think 10 wins are enough.
Chiyotairyu vs Kagayaki – Both are coming in with 6-6 records. They have split the 6 prior matches. They are quite evenly matched, and who can tell right now which one has an advantage here. We will get to see if Chiyotairyu hurt anything other than his pride in the fall to end his match on day 12.
Meisei vs Chiyomaru – Can Meisei rally to extend his 2-0 career record over Chiyomaru today? Meisei really looks like he has nothing left, and each match is increasingly difficult for him. If he can win today, Chiyomaru will be make-koshi.
Shimanoumi vs Endo – Both are 7-5, so someone exits this match with a kachi-koshi. Endo won their only other meeting.
Ichinojo vs Hokutofuji – Oh dear, Hokutofuji has been fighting so well, but here he has to clear a boulder from his patch to kachi-koshi. Or will the boulder clear him?
Asanoyama vs Aoiyama – Asanoyama needs to “win out” to get his kachi-koshi, which would be another notable achievement for a young rikishi who has greatly improved his sumo. As we saw on day 12, if you let Aoiyama set up his oshi attack, there is not a whole lot that will stop him.
Shodai vs Ryuden – Shodai holds a 3-0 career advantage over Ryuden, who is already make-koshi. Shodai’s sumo was surprisingly good on day 12; can he make it two in a row?
Abi vs Daieisho – I would imagine that Abi was quite embarrassed to lose on day 12 due to falling down. Given his lanky frame, it’s an occupational hazard! Daieisho is fighting quite well, and has a 4-3 career advantage over Abi, so it should be a fight worth watching.
Takarafuji vs Tamawashi – Tamawashi is suffering this basho, and Takarafuji has the patience to hold on and win if he can stalemate Tamawashi, which is a big if. A loss today would put Takarafuji at 8, for a make-koshi.
Mitakeumi vs Kotoshogiku – Mitakeumi holds a 10-4 advantage over the Kyushu bulldozer, and he needs one more win for his 8th. I would expect that Kotoshogiku is going to once again struggle for traction, and it will come down to Mitakeumi not giving Kotoshogiku any opening.
Myogiryu vs Hakuho – Given Hakuho’s degraded state, this match is far from a sure thing. Myogiryu has been especially energetic this basho, and Hakuho’s day 12 caution indicates he is saving what he can for day 15 against Kakuryu. The goal here – don’t get any more hurt than you already are, Boss!
Kakuryu vs Tomokaze – Well, Tomokaze, you should take this as recognition of how far you have come. You get to fight a Yokozuna, and if you manage to put dirt on him, you are going to make the final 2 days even more exciting and unpredictable than they already are. But be aware that Kakuryu is showing some of his best sumo in years.
Kakuryu (12-0) leads by one over Hakuho (11-1). The two Yokozuna are chased by … checks notes … M16w Terutsuyoshi (10-2). The only other rikishi with a mathematical shot is M7w Tomokaze (9-3). Not that it’s likely, but what odds could one have gotten on a Terutsuyoshi yusho at the start of the tournament? In case you’re wondering, he wouldn’t be the lowest-ranked rikishi to raise the Emperor’s cup—that honor will probably always be held by M17w Dewaminato, who triumphed in January 1939.
It’s interesting to speculate what matchups the schedulers will come up with for the final days, given the unprecedented absence of all four Ozeki. On Day 13, Kakuryu faces Tomokaze, while Hakuho fights M7e Myogiryu (8-4), whom he’s bested 18 times in 19 prior meetings. Terutsuyoshi’s challenge is not being taken all that seriously yet—his opponent is M8e Onosho (6-6). Kakuryu’s last two opponents will almost certainly be Mitakeumi and Hakuho. It’s unclear whom Hakuho will fight on Day 14—I would guess Tomokaze, but Terutsuyoshi is an interesting option. More likely, the latter will face one of the joi maegashira, one of the Komusubi, or Tamawashi, and could be the logical opponent for Mitakeumi on senshuraku (remember that the next day’s schedule is usually made before the results of the previous day’s bouts are known, although if the yusho contenders are in doubt, the schedulers can wait for Day 14 results to make the Day 15 schedule, like they did in May).
No real changes from yesterday, except that Abi’s loss means that he now needs to win out to secure his rank. Hokutofuji has dropped two in a row, and while he continues to lead the race for the first open san’yaku slot, he is now closely pursued by the likes of Endo, Ichinojo, Daieisho, and even Tomokaze. Daieisho can open a second slot by beating Abi tomorrow (the career record is 4-3 in favor of Daieisho), and Hokutofuji and Ichinojo go head-to-head for the lead of the promotion queue; the two have split their previous 8 bouts.
In Makuuchi, we have Kaisei and Yoshikaze dropping down to Juryo, and Yago needs 3 wins and strong banzuke luck to avoid joining them. The others still needing victories to reach safety are Toyonoshima, Tochiozan, Chiyomaru, Nishikigi, and Takagenji, but two certain demotions and a lack of strong promotion candidates in Juryo means that most or all of them could survive even they drop their last 3.
Juryo yusho leader Tsurugisho may have already done enough to make his top-division debut at Aki; one more victory will do it for sure. The other unconvincing contenders all still need two or three victories to secure promotion, although one or two of them may do it with one. The best-placed of these is our old friend Ishiura, followed by Azumaryu, Yutakayama, Wakatakakage, Takanosho, Tokushoryu, and Chiyoshoma.
Two slots will open in Juryo with Aminishiki’s retirement and Akiseyama’s demotion. Kotonowaka and Ryuko likely need to win out to avoid demotion. Others still in danger are Chiyonoumi, and possibly Arwashi and Ikioi if they lose out. The only certain promotion from Makushita at this time is Ms1e Seiro (4-2). Ms4e Chiyootori (3-4) lost his “exchange bout” with J13 Kizakiumi, postponing his return to sekitori status. Tomorrow, we’ll have another exchange bout with Ms1w Irodori (3-3) facing Ryuko. The other Makushita promotion contenders—Hoshoryu, Tamaki, Kaisho, and Wakamotoharu—won’t see action until the weekend.
It looks like the day off may have done Yokozuna Hakuho a world of good. He bounced back strongly and did not wince during or after his match with Mitakeumi. If he can gamberize for the next 3 days, it sets up that final match on day 15 to be the decider, and it could not be a better bout to close out this trauma ward of a basho. A dai-Yokozuna who is maybe at 70% against the “understudy” who is showing some of the best sumo of his career.
It also looks like the top division may have an impressive number of “Darwin matches” on the final day. Where both rikishi are 7-7 and only one man exits with a kachi-koshi. This is in keeping with the brutal themes of this tournament, which I am sure many rikishi will look back and say “It can’t be as bad a Nagoya 2019…” when facing future struggles.
Kotoyuki defeats Kagayaki – Surprised? Impressed? Not sure how to list this. Kotoyuki has been good fun for a while, but tough to take too seriously because his performance is so unpredictable. But he picks up his first top division kachi-koshi since January of 2017. Well done sir!
Nishikigi defeats Yago – Yago is busted to be certain if Nishikigi and box and ship him out without even stoping by the post office for a stamp. Hopefully Yago is still under warranty, as a lot of fans want to see him healthy and fighting fit as soon as possible.
Kotoeko defeats Sadanoumi – Kotoeko’s superior mobility carried this match. He uses double arm thrust to the shoulders and then steps out of the way as Sadanoumi ramps up the forward pressure. Kotoeko picks up #8 and is kachi-koshi.
Shohozan defeats Enho – Anyone else getting flashbacks of Ura blowing out his knee doing acrobatic stunts on the dohyo? This match was a mess, as it looks like Enho’s opening gambit fell apart and he improvised. While it might look like Shohozan had a hand down early, the top of Enho’s foot made contact with the clay well ahead of that. Crazy sumo, try not to get hurt guys.
Toyonoshima defeats Onosho – Experience, power and patience cleaned Onosho out today. I am an Onosho booster as fans know, but he’s still not quite right post injury / post surgery. Somehow, against all odds, Toyonoshima is not make-koshi. Acres of respect for this guy, he’s not going down easy, and not without taking a few other rikishi down first.
Okinoumi defeats Chiyomaru – Okinoumi wore his roundness down to the nub and then threw away the scraps. That was kind of boring to watch, as it was two guys standing around, but it was all about having the patience to make sure Chiyomaru was too worn out to really move his own ponderous bulk, let along execute any sumo.
Terutsuyoshi defeats Myogiryu – Boom. Terutsuyoshi gets lower and inside at the tachiai, and never gives up the advantage. Though Myogiryu is landing blows, Terutsuyoshi is calling the tune, and he catches Myogiryu out of position and drives him out. Great sumo from Terutsuyoshi, who now has 10 wins. What a turn around from March and May! (6-9 each)
Shimanoumi defeats Takagenji – Takagenji really hit a wall, picked up an injury or something just turned off. He came out strong and now he’s make-koshi. At Maegashira 10, he’s probably going to get a second chance to score 8 in the top division come September, so I hope he can get things buttoned up.
Kotoshogiku defeats Tochiozan – Both men wanted to establish a dominant grip, but neither could really land a hand on the other’s mawashi. Kotoshogiku can still push with a lot of force, and Tochiozan ran out of room to try his pull down.
Takarafuji defeats Daishoho – Again we see Takarafuji get into a stable position and work to wear down and stalemate his opponent. This seems to be working for him, as he now won the last 3 in a row. I will be most impressed if he can avoid make-koshi.
Ichinojo defeats Tomokaze – Young Tomokaze gets a lesson in fighting someone very large when he aggressively goes for a eats battle, and finds himself utterly unable to do anything other than hold on. His arms were not long enough to reach around Ichinojo, and he had given the Mongolian behemoth a solid two hand grip on his own belt. Try as he might, he could not move Ichinojo, who played with him a bit before taking him to the curb for collection.
Daieisho defeats Asanoyama – Daieisho executed a well timed side-step as Asanoyama charged towards the edge of the ring to finish him. This is not the first match of this basho that Asanoyama has lost in this manner, so it’s probably something he wants to improve.
Shodai defeats Hokutofuji – One of the reasons I have a semi-permanent annoyance factor with Shodai is on display in this match. Look at this. He utterly out-classes Hokutofuji and sends him to get a facial from the gyoji in waiting, Konosuke. Where is this other 14 days of the basho, Shodai? Get it together man!
Endo defeats Abi – Endo effectively stalemated Abi-zumo 1.0, and when Abi went to unleash 2.0 on Endo, it fell to bits. I chalk it up to being a brand new gambit, and he needs to get more comfortable with when and how to employ it. His feet were not set properly, the dohyo is slick, and Endo had no problem shutting Abi down. Kimarite listed as tsukihiza, which is a “non-technique” denoting that Abi fell down.
Aoiyama defeats Ryuden – Aoiyama took control at the tachiai, and never gave up the advantage. Ryuden wanted to respond, but was too busy trying to maintain balance against Aoiyama’s thrusting attack.
Tamawashi defeats Meisei – Tamawashi manage to win is second match of the basho. Both of these rikishi need to regroup, because they have had a miserable time in Nagoya.
Kakuryu defeats Chiyotairyu – After far too long of everyone muttering about why the hell is Kakuryu a Yokozuna? We are seeing some genuine “wow” sumo from Kakuryu. This ankle kick (susoharai) to bring Chiyotairyu down on his rear is quite seldom seen. If he can stay unhurt for 3 more matches, Kakuryu is going to be tough to beat.
Hakuho defeats Mitakeumi – Hakuho normally has little problem with Mitakeumi, but today the lead Tadpole robbed him of any leverage for The Boss’s much cherished “nage” throws. So the two expended endurance in a waiting game. What surprised me is that at one point both of them were nearly upright, and neither man went immediately to finish the other. I would say Mitakeumi was too tired, and Hakuho was protecting those elbows.