A Look Ahead to Hatsu 2020

Yokozuna and Ozeki

Hakuho (14-1) has once again confirmed his standing at the top of the sport, and this will be made official when he assumes the rank of East Yokozuna for a record 51st time in his storied career but the first since May. Kakuryu (0-1-14) will move over to the West side, and Tachiai hopes that he’ll be fit to fight in January.

Takakeisho (9-6) had a solid tournament and put up his first winning record as Ozeki. He’ll be the East Ozeki at Hatsu, joined on the West side by Goeido (0-2-13), who’ll be kadoban and looking for 8 wins to maintain his rank. Takayasu (3-5-7) failed in his attempt to clear kadoban, and will have his one shot to return to Ozeki by picking up 10 wins at Sekiwake. That mountain proved too high to climb for the second time for Tochinoshin (2-3-10), who says good-bye to his hopes of regaining the rank and should be ranked around M8, his lowest banzuke position since May 2017.

Sekiwake and Komusubi

The final-day results made a potentially messy situation fairly clear, unless the banzuke committee does something unexpected. There should be two Sekiwake and two Komusubi on the next banzuke, which, combined with only two Yokozuna and two Ozeki, will give us the smallest slate of san’yaku-ranked rikishi since November 2005. Consequently, the joi ranks will extend all the way down to M4w, even barring any absences, and we will see the reappearance of the M17w rank.

The key outcomes were losses by Sekiwake Mitakeumi (6-9) and Komusubi Endo (7-8), which should drop both into the rank-and-file along with Komusubi Hokutofuji (7-8), who was already make-koshi. For Mitakeumi, this would end a streak of 17 straight san’yaku appearances, second-longest in history and two basho short of the record. This leaves both Sekiwake slots open. The East Sekiwake rank should be occupied by Komusubi Asanoyama (11-4), while the West side is spoken for by Takayasu. East Komusubi Abi (9-6) will hold on to his rank, and the open West Komusubi slot should go to M1e Daieisho (8-7), removing the need for any extra slots.

Apparently, the shimpan department has declared that Asanoyama is not on an Ozeki run after posting records of M2 10-5 K 11-4 jun-yusho in the past two basho, but this probably just means that simply hitting 33 wins by going 12-3 at Hatsu won’t be enough, and it will take 13+ wins and/or a yusho.

Upper Maegashira

This is where things get crowded. Unless the baznuke committee goes against precedent and creates extra san’yaku slots without being forced to do so, there are four rikishi who warrant the M1 rank—Mitakeumi, the two 7-8 Komusubi, and M2e Myogiryu (8-7). My guess is that we will see Myogiryu, who must be promoted, at M1e, followed by the higher-ranked Komusubi, Endo, at M1w, with Hokutofuji and Mitakeumi having to settle for M2.

After that, the 8-7 M4 duo of Tamawashi and Kotoyuki should neatly move up in tandem to M3. M10w Shodai (11-4) should return from the lower ranks to the more familiar banzuke territory of M4, where he’ll probably be joined by M1w Okinoumi (6-9). And rounding out the top 10 maegashira at M5 should be M2w Meisei (6-9) and M6w Enho (8-7), who keeps proving his doubters wrong, delighting his fans, and moving ever higher up the banzuke.

Lower Maegashira

Somewhat unusually, none of the competing maegashira ended up on the bubble—they either clearly did enough to stay in the top division, or unambiguously earned a trip on Bruce’s infamous “Juryo barge.” In the latter group are M15w Daishoho (3-12), M14w Nishikigi (4-11), and M15e Daishomaru (5-10), all posting double-digit losses at the very bottom of Makuuchi. They’ll be joined in the second division by absent Ichinojo and injured Wakatakakage.

That’s five demotions, and as it happens, there are five clearly deserved promotions from Juryo. Three are Makuuchi mainstays making a return: Ikioi, Tochiozan, and Kaisei. One, Kiribayama, is a promising newcomer who shrugged off a senshuraku henka attempt by Chiyoshoma in a de facto promotion playoff, and whom Heruth has compared to Harumafuji. And last but not least, we have the Juryo yusho winner, Azumaryu, who defeated Ikioi and Kaisei in a playoff (avenging regulation losses to both). Azumaryu entered sumo 11 years ago, and has spent most of that time in Juryo, with 5 previous appearances in the top-division, most recently in September. He seems to be hitting a peak at age 32; this is his first yusho at any level, and he is likely exceed his career-high rank of M14e.

The one wildcard is M3w Tomokaze (0-3-12). Sadly, we know he won’t be competing any time soon, but his banzuke position has historically usually been high enough to protect him from a fall to Juryo even with zero wins. But that’s not a certainty this time, as J1w Tokushoryu (8-7) has a strong if not ironclad promotion case. If I had to guess, I’d go with them promoting Tokushoryu, but this is a really tough call.

Kyushu Day 15 Highlights

Thus the final basho of 2019 comes to a close. I will post my opinions on the basho and the state of sumo a bit later, perhaps tomorrow, to make way for the discussion of the matches themselves. There was plenty of exciting action for day 15, and with the broad slate of Darwin matches, much was on the line. Tachiai congratulates Yokozuna Hakuho for his record breaking 43rd yusho, marking another milestone for history’s winningest rikishi.

If you have been following lksumo’s excellent story line post series, you know that the Juryo to Makuuchi swap for January is likely to be broad. We are likely to see a resurgence of familiar names return to the top division. This basho, more than many in recent memory, has a broader set of inter-division swaps available for the next banzuke.

Thank you, dear readers, for joining us for the Kyushu Basho. It’s been mountains of fun sharing our love of sumo with the world, and we appreciate that you take the time to visit our web site, read our posts, and participating in the discussion.

Shout out to Kotoyuki for that awesome flex at the end of the Sanyaku Soroibumi. You absolute legend.

Day 15 Matches

Daiamami defeats Nishikigi – Whatever damage Nishikigi is carrying (maybe that taped left ankle) continues to rob him of his sumo. The hapless Daiamami punctuates his demotion to Juryo with a final loss. Readers know I have a soft spot for Nishikigi, and I hope he can get his body back to good health.

Ishiura defeats Daishoho – Ishiura 3.0 is back in full force. In fact I think he’s a better Enho than Enho is right now. Today’s match is a direct import of Enho’s sumo, as Ishiura finds the nearest body part and tugs for all he can muster. This completely derails whatever Daishoho wanted to do, as he moves to break contact. As Ishiura spins Daishoho around, his left hand finds a deep grip, and it’s time for phase 2. About this time, Daishoho realizes he’s caught, and Ishiura’s seeks position to load the throw. But throw he does, and it’s win number 9 for Ishiura.

Shimanoumi defeats Chiyomaru – Shimanoumi overcomes Chiyomaru’s giant belly and finds green silk. In reaction Chiyomaru launches into a mad-cap retreat and pull sequence, over and over, as Shimanoumi consolidates his position and delivers the yorikiri.

Chiyotairyu defeats Yutakayama – Yutakayama completely failed to counter the predictable Chiyotairyu opening thrust. Chiyotairyu stood him up, then pulled him down. Yutakayama tends to struggle in the final weekend, and this basho follows that trend.

Kagayaki defeats Shohozan – Kagayaki focused on fundamentals, left the head smashing to Shohozan and worked forcefully on Shohozan’s center-mass. Kagayaki, without flair or a lot of attention, has racked up double digit wins this Kyushu. Readers know I am a fan of his work ethic, and his relentless focus on sumo fundamentals.

Kotoeko defeats Daishomaru – Both men trade impotent pull attempts, with Kotoeko’s pull resulting him Daishomaru rushing forward to finish him. But Kotoeko keeps his head in the match and times a side step at the tawara that gives him the win. Both finish with a dismal 5-10 record.

Tsurugisho defeats Terutsuyoshi – Tsurugisho rallies on the final day, and stops his 6 match losing streak. It was not forward motion sumo, but at this point I am just happy he could close the basho with a win.

Kotoshogiku defats Aoiyama – This was a surprisingly fun and satisfying match. Aoiyama nearly finishes Kotoshogiku at the tachiai, but somehow the former Ozeki keeps his feet. Dan fires up the big V-Twin gets Kotoshogiku to give ground. In a bold double hand slap, Kotoshogiku disrupts Aoiyama’s thrusting attack, lowering Aoiyama’s arms. His chest now exposed, The Kyushu Bulldozer gets to work. Taking Aoiyama to his chest, he finds that Big Dan has too much forward pressure for him to engage the hug-n-chug attack, he gives ground to unbalance his foe, and rotates into a tsukiotoshi. The crowd and I are both delighted that Kotoshogiku got to finish with a win.

Tamawashi defeats Sadanoumi – Complete clash of opening gambits, as Sadanoumi takes the tachiai with his face. He’s still reaching for Tamawashi’s belt, but he has no balance to plant his feet, and Tamawashi powerful forward charge continues and it’s densa-meshi time.

Takarafuji defeats Meisei – This match is a fine example of how Takarafuji prefers to fight. He lets Meisei throw what he wants to in at the start of the match, and just focuses on blunting every attack, and keeping his feet, waiting for his opponent (Meisei today) to make a mistake. It comes about 12 seconds into the match, and Takarafuji switches to attack mode. Going chest to chest against Meisei, he knows Meisei was not ready to grapple, and his feet are in poor position. Takarafuji adjusts his stance, loads the throw and finishes him.

Myogiryu defeats Onosho – As predicted, Onosho did not have the balance today to counter Myogiryu, and is caught too far forward. Onosho has a lot of potential, but he’s still working through the impact of reconstruction surgery on that knee. Myogiryu finishes Kyushu with his 8th win.

Takanosho defeats Okinoumi – Okinoumi spent most of this match too far forward of his feet. While Takanosho played with him for a time, he soon figured out that releasing pressure might give him the win. It did and he finishes 10-5.

Enho defeats Daieisho – Not wanting to be out-done by stablemate Ishiura, has a great high-low feint at the tachiai that gets him a left hand inside grip. Though Daieisho charges ahead, using his superior mass, Enho is ready and rolls the sukuinage at the bales. Enho finishes Kyushu with a kachi-koshi.

Shodai defeats Asanoyama – This match had a number of odd things going on. Firstly, where did that tachiai come from Shodai? Where have you been keeping that? Second, Shodai’s feet are all over the place, which is common for him, but Asanoyama is completely overwhelmed and Shodai has little trouble forcing him out. For recent sumo fans, this is one source of Shodai frustration. In the past, he fought like this most of the time. He was a real up and coming rikishi. I reserve the right to change my mind about Shodai if he returns to good form.

Hokutofuji defeats Ryuden – For the second day in a row, we seek Hokutofuji tone down the mobility and work to maintain contact with his opponent. And for the second day in a row, it pays off as he completely dominates Ryuden to finish Kyushu 7-8.

Kotoyuki defeats Endo – For fans recently enjoying sumo, this seems to be the original Kotoyuki, who was a decent rikishi. Today he blasts the tachiai, preventing that left hand frontal grip attempt that everyone expects from Endo now. Kotoyuki is relentless against Endo’s center mass, and just keeps pressing the attack. He ends Kyushu with his 8th win, handing Endo his 8th loss.

Abi defeats Mitakeumi – Mitakeumi, in spite of whatever injury has throttled back his sumo, gives Abi a solid fight. Twice Abi is forced to break contract and fall back. But Mitakeumi is a half step slower than his normal intensity, and Abi has exquisite mobility. Mitakeumi’s push to send Abi out of the ring was met with balance, as Abi remained in bounds just long enough for Mitakeumi to land. Sad to see Mitakeumi blow up his 3rd Ozeki campaign so badly, but my compliments to Abi for a great basho.

Hakuho defeats Takakeisho – This match was all down to the opening gambit, with Takakeisho needing to get a hand on Hakuho’s chest. I am sure he practiced against the Yokozuna’s predicted launch sequence, but Hakuho pulled out his quick-start that he used to use all the time against Harumafuji. As a result, he was able to take the lone surviving Ozeki to his chest. His primary weapon disabled, Takakeisho waited out the inevitable, and took the loss.

Kyushu Special Prizes

Via the Sumo Kyokai website:

Shukun-sho(Outstanding Performance Award)

East Maegashira #1 Daieisho(Hayato Takanishi)  
(8-6)
Oitekaze Beya
Date of Birth: November 10, 1993 (26 years old)
Place of Birth: Saitama
2012 January Debut

Kanto-sho(Fighting Spirit Prize)

West Maegashira #10 Shodai(Naoya Shodai)  conditionally
(10-4)
Tokitsukaze Beya
Date of Birth: November 5, 1991 (28 years old)
Place of Birth: Kumamoto
2014 March Debut

Gino-sho(Technique Prize)

West Komusubi Asanoyama(Hiroki Ishibashi)  
(11-3)
Takasago Beya
Date of Birth: March 1, 1994 (25 years old)
Place of Birth: Toyama
2016 March Debut

Kyushu Day 15 Preview

Welcome to Senshuraku – the final day of the Kyushu basho. It’s been an odd and crazy sumo tournament, part of the rough and unpredictable road into a new era of sumo. While the yusho is decided, and we already know a bit about who is going to be demoted and promoted for January, there are 7 rikishi who enter day 15 with 7-7 records. In most cases they will face each other, creating what we at Tachiai call “Darwin matches”. Only one rikishi survives these encounters with a winning record, and the other leaves the dohyo with a demotion for the New Year. The competition this November was so evenly balanced, the tournament ended with an unusual number or rikishi whose records were 7-8 or 8-7.

The real action is in Juryo, where we will likely see a multi-way barnyard brawl for the yusho, with many long-serving favorites battling it out not just for the top finish in sumo’s second division, but promotion back to the top division to start 2020. This may include such well known names as Azumaryu, Tochiozan, Ikioi, and Kaisei.

Note to fans – in tournaments like this, you can get to day 15, and you will see some odd matches. Huge rank differences, fights that make little sense. But just go with the flow, and toast the poor torikumi committee, who had their hands full this basho.

What We Are Watching Day 15

Daiamami vs Nishikigi – You can say to yourself, why does this matter? Nishikigi is probably the first mate for the Juryo barge at this point, and with a deep make-koshi Daiamami is probably ready to put this tournament behind him. But in truth, this is probably to help figure out Juryo ranks for January.

Ishiura vs Daishoho – Ishiura has a chance to finish the tournament with nine wins, and that would be a great achievement for a rikishi who has been struggling. Ishiura’s sumo has undergone a welcome transition in the past two weeks, and I now have hope that he’s part of a team of small rikishi who will add a great deal of excitement to sumo.

Shimanoumi vs Chiyomaru – Likewise Chiyomaru has a chance to end the basho with a 10-5, and lets see if he can take out Shimanoumi on the final day. They have a tied up career record at 2-2.

Chiyotairyu vs Yutakayama – Yes, yes! Sweet Lordy-lord yes! The big, stampeding buffalo that is Chiyotairyu pays Yutakayama a special visit to see which one of them ends the tournament with win number 9. This is likely also to determine rank for January, and Yutakayama has lost the last 2 matches he has had against Chiyotairyu. Readers know I am expecting good things in 2020 from Yutakayama, so this is a fine test of how close to ready he might be.

Shohozan vs Kagayaki – Both of them are kachi-koshi, so this is just to basho and toss each other about for a while. I would say Shohozan has the home-town edge, but hey, Kagayaki’s simple sumo style has given him an 8-5 career lead. Plus Shohozan tends to ease up once he has made his 8. Probably part of the reason he has survived in the top division this long.

Daishomaru vs Kotoeko – Kotoeko can punctuate Daishomaru’s likely return to Juryo with a win today, but even that seems to be beyond him right now. For a toughs scrappy rikishi, he has certainly lost nearly all of his mojo this November. Tachiai hopes he can recharge and refresh in time for Hatsu.

Tsurugisho vs Terutsuyoshi – Somebody broke Tsurugisho last weekend, and we need to either reboot him or send him in for repair. Although Tsurugisho has a distinct size advantage, he seems to be in no condition to compete right now.

Aoiyama vs Kotoshogiku – I would love to see Kotoshogiku close out Kyushu with a final win. With his deep make-koshi, he is going to be rather far down the banzuke for January, and long term fans must wonder how much longer his body can hold up to top division sumo.

Tamawashi vs Sadanoumi – The first of our Darwin matches, it’s run-and-gun Tamawashi against compact battle-bot Sadanoumi. Sadanoumi holds a 9-2 career advantage over Tamawashi, and Sadanoumi has been fighting quite well this basho. Plans are to be well into the second bottle of sake by this match.

Takarafuji vs Meisei – Takarafuji needs to win if he wants to avoid double-digit losses for November, but he has never won against Meisei. Meisei tends to fight with high-energy opening gambits, while Takarafuji works to constrain, contain and maintain his opponents and wear them down.

Myogiryu vs Onosho – Next Darwin match! I would dearly love Onosho to win this one, but I am not sure he’s quite up to it yet. His balance has been poor this November. It’s likely a function of his knee surgery and ongoing recovery, but it means that a high agility rikishi like Myogiryu has a distinct advantage in this match.

Takanosho vs Okinoumi – Huge banzuke gap here (M12 vs M1), but why not? Their only prior match was Aki 2018, which Takanosho won.

Daieisho vs Enho – Lets call this one a half-Darwin. Enho gets the lucky match where his opponent, Daieisho, already has 8 wins, and is less motivated to put everything he has into the match. A kachi-koshi in November would see Enho join the joi-jin, which will be quite the spicy sauce for our Hatsu Basho.

Shodai vs Asanoyama – At first I thought, “What were you guys drinking…”. Then it made perfect sense. Some twisted oyakata decided to give Shodai a chance to share the jun-yusho with Asanoyama. Shodai is ranked at M10, Asanoyama is Komusubi 2. Please, Asanoyama, grab him and give him a fitting exit from this basho.

Hokutofuji vs Ryuden – This match has a lot of potential. Both rikishi tend to be highly aggressive, both of them are prone to moments of wild, high energy, high chaos sumo, and both are highly mobile. They have a 3-3 career record, and matching 6-8 records. This one could catch fire.

Kotoyuki vs Endo – Our final Darwin match of the day, it’s time for Kotoyuki the penguin to take on Endo the Golden. They have matching 7-7 records, and have a 4-4 career tally. It will come down to Endo getting that left hand grip, or Kotoyuki getting a solid hit center-mass. I just pray my supply of rice-crackers holds up.

Mitakeumi vs Abi – As if to punctuate Mitakeumi’s failure, he gets to fight the rikishi who has been qualified for Sekiwake for most of 2019, but has been blocked by one condition or another. Mitakeumi holds a 4-1 career advantage, but he is fighting poorly, and Abi still seems to have plenty of energy left to fight.

Takakeisho vs Hakuho – Hakuho already has the yusho, but there is zero chance he will ease off on Takakeisho. So I am expecting a rapid slap, a grab and a hearty roll to the clay. The chance Takakeisho has of stopping that will be something unexpected and possibly dangerous. Lets hope everyone stays safe.