Kyushu Wrap-up and Predictions

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Image courtesy of Japan Times

Congratulations to Komusubi Takakeisho on adding a top-division yusho to his previous victories in Jonokuchi, Jonidan, Makushita, and Juryo! He also picked up his third Shukun-sho and his second Kanto-sho. This is only the 9th yusho by a Komusubi, and the first since Kaio’s in 2000. Takakeisho will take over the East Sekiwake rank in January, and 11 victories there, give or take, should see him ascend to Ozeki.

Ozeki Takayasu picked up his 4th jun-yusho, and Ozeki Tochinoshin, despite a disappointing tournament, collected the most victories in 2018. M13 Onosho (11-4) was awarded his third Kanto-sho.

With the results of final-day bouts, all the complicated promotion/demotion scenarios worked themselves out. Mitakeumi’s last-ditch victory over Takayasu not only handed Takakeisho the championship, but will keep the Sekiwake in sanyaku for the 12th consecutive tournament (no mean feat!), albeit at the lower rank of Komusubi. The last man with such a long string of consecutive lower sanyaku appearances? None other than current Ozeki Goeido. Mitakeumi was the only rikishi to defeat both Takakeisho and Takayasu. The other Sekiwake, Ichinojo, showed zero interest in defending his rank today, and his sanyaku streak will come to an end after 5 basho.

The impending demotions of Ichinojo and Kaisei create two openings in sanyaku, and there are two clear candidates to fill them: M2w Tamawashi (9-6) and M1e Myogiryu (8-7). I expect Tamawashi to occupy the West Sekiwake slot, and his three-tournament line is one that’s never been seen before: K 4-11, M2 9-6, S. Myogiryu will be returning to sanyaku for the first time since 2015, and should hold down the West Komusubi slot. Just missing out is M2 Tochiozan (8-7), who started the tournament with five straight victories over both Sekiwake, two Ozeki, and a Yokozuna, but followed that with a 3-7 fade against easier opposition. He will occupy the M1 rank, alongside Ichinojo.

The other top ten maegashira slots will be filled out by a combination of holdovers from these ranks and strong performers from lower down the banzuke. Staying should be M1 Hokutofuji (7-8), M3 Nishikigi (8-7), M4 Shodai (8-7), and M4 Yoshikaze (7-8). Joining them will be M7 Shohozan (10-5), M9 Kotoshogiku (10-5), M11 Okinoumi (11-5), and M12 Aoiyama (11-5). This is a formidable and battle-tested joi for the top-rankers to contend with at Hatsu.

In general, this time around there should be no huge banzuke moves. Okinoumi, Aoiyama, and Onosho will rise the furthest, while the biggest fall will belong to Kaisei, apart from those dropping out of the top division altogether.

Speaking of which, the Makuuchi/Juryo line also sorted itself out neatly on the final day. The senshuraku loss by Daishomaru should send him to Juryo along with Arawashi, Chiyomaru, and Takanosho, while Daishoho’s loss removed him from promotion consideration. So it should be four down and four up: Yago, Kotoyuki, Kotoeko, and Terutsuyoshi. Breathing a sigh of relief are Chiyonokuni and Daiamami, one of whom might have gone down with a Daishoho win—either that, or Terutsuyoshi would have stayed in Juryo.

For completeness, there should be two demotions from Juryo to Makushita, Chiyonoo and Gokushindo, whose vacated slots will go to former sekitori Gagamaru and Sokokurai. We’ll find out in a couple of days, when new Juryo rikishi are announced.

As usual, I will have a full banzuke prediction post up in the coming days, and there will be other great content between the basho, so please don’t forget to keep reading Tachiai, and thank you!

Kyushu 2018 Final Day

Victory Fish Madai 5

Personally, I was worried that once again the special prize committee would rule that “no one deserves a special prize” as they did at Aki. That decision was not popular in my circle of sumo fans, but as an outsider (which I assure you I am), you just shrug and go about your business. For Kyushu, the special prizes were a tadpole sweep:

Takakeisho: Shukun-sho & Kanto-sho
Onosho: Kanto-sho

I do wonder about consideration for Aoiyama and Okinoumi, who performed very well indeed. Then there is Nishikigi, who defied expectations and actually was able to put together 8 wins at a rank far above anything he has ever held before. Some additional information if you want to pick through he kanji here.

The final result is quite the signal for the road ahead. With Takakeisho winning the Kyushu yusho, we have 2 tadpole yusho this year (Mitakeumi and Takakeisho). Interestingly enough, it was Mitakeumi who sealed the deal with his win over Takayasu in the final match of the tournament. For Takayasu, he is forming a record surprisingly like his senpai, consistent good scores, but no Yusho to show for it. This is his 4th Jun-Yusho, all with a 12-3 finish.

At 22 years old, yusho winner Takakeisho continues on his meteoric rise. Over the past 3 basho he has racked 32 wins, over the past 4 that number goes to 42. In the past year he has honed his trademark attack, that we have taken to calling “Wave Action Tsuppari”. Where most rikishi land blows and thrusts in an alternating left / right arm cycle, Takakeisho works to set up a period group of double arm thrusts that arrive in waves. The net result is visually obvious, his opponent has just enough time to react just a bit before the next wave arrives. In many cases that reaction is to either escape or counter attack, and almost always leaves the opponent on less than excellent footing. If he can stay healthy, young Takakeisho has a lot to offer the sumo world.

Notable Matches

Onosho defeats Yutakayama – Onosho picks up the Kanto-sho, and blasts Yutakayama out directly. Yutakayama finishes 5-10, and is in dire need of repair to his body. At one time a promising member of the Freshmen cohort, he has suffered greatly since posting to Maegashira 2 at Aki.

Kotoshogiku defeats Meisei – No special prize here, but it’s great to see Kotoshogiku shine again. Meisei’s hopes of double digits bit the clay with his first trip on the hug-n-chug Kyushu Bulldozer. Kotoshogiku is probably looking at a big lift in rank for January, and I am curious to see what he can do with it.

Chiyoshoma defeats Abi – Is it reasonable to consider the dominance of Abi-zumo is past its peak? Chiyoshoma dismantles the obligatory double arm attack and makes fairly easy work of Abi. Fans know Abi has a lot of potential, and are wondering when the next evolutionary stage will hit. Not that I think he will (or should) abandon the double arm attack, just as Tochinoshin will never abandon the lift and shift when he can get there. But we know Abi has more in his sumo book.

Aoiyama defeats Yoshikaze – Aoiyama has really gotten his sumo together this basho. He typically does quite well in the Maegashira 12-9 rank, but seems to falter more the closer he gets to the top. With a 11-4 finish, he’s headed for the joi-jin, and he will have another chance to demonstrate if his sumo is effective against the top rikishi. Yoshikaze make-koshi on the final day, he could not get close enough to the man-mountain to produce an effective offense.

Ryuden defeats Daieisho – Deeply make-koshi, Ryuden never the less continues to work on his sumo, and battles for every win. The guy’s work ethic seems solid, and at Maegashira 3, he was out-matched, even in a nokazuna tournament like Kyushu. All of the freshmen were make-koshi this time out, so it’s time for them to heal up and get ready for 2019. They are about 18-24 months behind the tadpoles in their evolution, so we should see them start to contend in a serious way late next year, early into 2020.

Okinoumi defeats Tamawashi – Matching his 11-4 from Kyushu last year (at about the same rank), Okinoumi seems to really improve in the western basho, and then pays for it in January. While I am sure Tamawashi would have rather closed with 10 wins, he is still in solid shape to return to the San’yaku for the New Years basho.

Shodai defeats Tochiozan – Tochiozan ends Kyushu with a kachi-koshi, but he certainly faded after a blistering start. Tochiozan opened the match in good position, but Shodai was able to break contact and recover, gaining the inside pushing position and focusing his force center-mass. Solid defense-offense change up combo from Shodai to pull a kachi-koshi out at the last minute.

Hokutofuji defeats Takanosho – I kind of feel for Takanosho, he got his head handed to him this basho, but kept his positive outlook. He’s going back to Juryo for January, but first he had the honor of being Takakeisho’s standard bearer for the yusho parade. I am going to guess that Takakesiho will have a happy, willing new Kouhai for his future career at Chiganoura. Hokutofuji finishes 7-8, and may get a chance to face more named ranked rikishi in January.

Myogiryu defeats Chiyotairyu – The Darwin match, where only one survives. After Chiyotairyu launches early and a matta is called, his primary offensive gambit, the cannon ball Tachiai, is defused and Myogiryu makes quick work of him.

Takakeisho defeats Nishikigi – For a brief moment, Takakeisho found himself perilously off balance as he yet again lost his footing near the edge. Nishikigi was not fast enough to put him away, and Takakeisho showed why he’s a force in sumo by rallying and taking the fight back to Nishikigi.

Kagayaki defeats Ichinojo – What should have been a gimme match for Ichinojo turns into a one-sided battle, with Kagayaki taking control and making surprisingly easy work of the ex-Sekiwake. A healthy Ichinojo is to be feared, sadly this Ichinojo needs recuperation.

Shohozan defeats Tochinoshin – One of the poorest run matches in memory, I have to wonder if the NSK is really going to promote Kandayu in 2019 after that mess. Tochinoshin spent his stamina in the first match, and maybe a bit more in the second. Shohozan had something left in reserve, and battled through a cut lip to win the 3rd and final attempt. Tough to describe the level of nonsense here, so please watch it via NHK, Jason or Kintamayama.

Mitakeumi defeats Takayasu – After some lackluster matches out of the future Ozeki, he rallies and brings his “A” sumo to Takayasu for the final match of the basho. When the match went to a leading contest, I thought it was Takayasu’s for sure, as he seems to have an almost inhuman endurance and can carry out a contest like this for a good long time. But Mitakeumi wore him down, and was able to find his time and make his move. My heart goes out to Takayasu, as a win at Kyushu would have been an important step towards supplanting Kisenosato, who may not be in sumo much longer. But that is for another day.

Thank to all our readers who spent part of their time enjoying the Kyushu basho with us. These nokazuna tournaments make for interesting contests, and November delivered an excellent fortnight of sumo. We count down the 49 days to Hatsu, and hope you will join us again when you think of sumo.

Kyushu Day 15 Preview

Macacon Of Victory

Break the sacred macaron of victory out of its fortress transportation case, and tell the yobidashi to apply a fresh coat of paint, for senshuraku is upon us, and the final disposition of many trophies, awards and honors shall be decided as the sumo world looks on.

Once again, lksumo has done a masterful job of teeing up what’s at stake for the tournament’s next and final day. In addition to all of the permutations for yusho, promotion and demotion, there are a fair number of koshis left to be decided. That makes for a number of high-stakes win-or-else matches on the final day, which will likely culminate in the highest stake san’yaku bouts and possibly a playoff for the cup.

A reminder that NHK World will have Grand Sumo Live starting at 2:30 AM US Eastern time, 11:30 PM Pacific to bring you the final 90 minutes of the tournament, including at least a half hour of speeches, trophies and celebrations.

What We Are Watching Day 15

Kotoshogiku (M9e) vs Meisei (M15w) – As lksumo pointed out, the Kyushu Bulldozer has been the crusher of Makuuchi dreams this tournament. I would guess the winner gets a special prize, and the loser gets a bowl of chanko. As a bonus, this is their first ever match, so there is a fair chance that Meisei will get to enjoy the hug-n-chug for the first time.

Ikioi vs (M8e) vs Chiyomaru (M16w) – Walking contusion Ikioi goes up against the bulbous Chiyomaru, whom he has never beaten in five tries. Someone has a bit of a mean streak, it seems, and I predict Ikioi will retire to the nearest onsen shortly afterwards to ease his aches.

Daiamami (M15e) vs Asanoyama (M5w) – Daiamami needs to take a white star from the already make-koshi Asanoyama to keep from riding the ferry back to Juryo. Sadly, Asanoyama has a 5-3 advantage over Daiamami.

Aoiyama (M12e) vs Yoshikaze (M4w) – Yoshikaze comes to this match 7-7, with this result deciding his winning or losing record for November. Aoiyama is looking quite genki in the second week, and is probably looking forward to having the compact Yoshikaze to bat around. They are evenly matched 9-11 for their career, but this November, Aoiyama looks stronger. Good luck berserker!

Tochiozan (M2e) vs Shodai (M4e) – The other Maegashira 4 also decides his his koshi today. He holds a 3-1 career advantage over Tochiozan, who has lost his drive in week 2. We are hoping for some solid cartoon sumo from Shodai, and a chance to remain in the top of Maegashira ranks.

Myogiryu (M1e) vs Chiyotairyu (M5e) – Darwin match, both are 7-7. Only one will emerge kachi, the other make-koshi. Myogiryu has looked focused and strong in his past two matches, and will need to stay mobile against the overwhelming up-front strength of Chiyotairyu. Their career record is 5-5. Chiyotairyu will try to blast him into pieces at the tachiai, so if Myogiryu can survive that, it’s game on.

Takakeisho (K1e) vs Nishikigi (M3e) – Already examined well in the earlier mentioned post, but Nishikigi has been full of surprises. With Takakeisho this genki, it may seem like a foregone conclusion, but I choose to keep an open mind and let events unfold as they will. [Not betting to eat anything unwise? –PinkMawashi]

Mitakeumi (S1e) vs Takayasu (O1w) – Does Mitakeumi have anything left in the tank? He has shown he can beat Takayasu, but it’s not a common event (4-10). A win for Takayasu could seal his first ever yusho, and there would be talk about his future as an eventual Yokozuna.

Kyushu State of Play, Day 14

Generic Kyushu Banner

Here we are, with only one day of sumo left and some questions resolved – but many others yet to be answered. This makes for a particularly exciting senshuraku!

Who will take the yusho?

After Okinoumi’s loss to Kotoshogiku, the race comes down to Ozeki Takayasu and Komusubi Takakeisho, who are tied at 12-2 after the former prevailed over the latter in their head-to-head bout with an odd ending. By the way, Kotoshogiku has been the designated crusher of lower-rank hopes this basho, taking Aoiyama, Onosho, and Okinoumi out of contention in the last three days. [It’s Fukuoka. They love him for it. –PinkMawashi]

The key bouts tomorrow are Takakeisho vs. Nishikigi and Takayasu vs. Mitakeumi. If one of the leaders wins and the other loses, the winner raises the Emperor’s cup. Otherwise, we go to a playoff! The head-to-head records are 1-1 for Takakeisho and Nishikigi, with neither bout recent enough to be predictive, and 10-4 in favor of Takayasu, who’s dominated Mitakeumi, taking 7 of their last 8—although that one loss came the last time they met, in September. We haven’t seen a playoff since the memorable finale of Wacky Aki over a year ago, when Harumafuji, in his last full tournament, bested Goeido twice on the final day to take the yusho.

Will any of the Ozeki be kadoban in January?

After Tochinoshin’s easy defeat of Mitakeumi, the answer is no.

Who will be ranked in sanyaku in January?

The one certainty is that Takakeisho will be the new East Sekiwake. He also takes over the mantle of “next Ozeki”; let’s see if he wears it better than Shodai and Mitakeumi. With either 21 or 22 victories in the last tournaments, he’ll probably need 11 or 12 at Hatsu to ascend to sumo’s second-highest rank.

The two current Sekiwake, Mitakeumi and Ichinojo, are both 6-8. It’s hard to believe, given the expectations going in and their starts to the tournament, but with the fading Mitakeumi matched up against one of the leaders while Ichinojo faces a poorly-performing Kagayaki, the Boulder is actually more likely to stay in the named ranks.

A 7-8 record at Sekiwake almost always results in a demotion to Komusubi (unless there is a lack of suitable promotion candidates, which won’t be the case this time), while 6-9 more-or-less guarantees a drop into the rank-and-file. So we should see a new West Sekiwake at Hatsu, and it’s going to be M2w Tamawashi (9-5) unless he loses to Okinoumi (10-4) tomorrow (their H2H is even, but recent bouts strongly favor Tamawashi) and Tochiozan (8-6) defeats Shodai (7-7), in which case the slot would go to Tochiozan by virtue of his M2e rank. The H2H in the latter bout favors Shodai 3-1.

If both Sekiwake pick up wins tomorrow, they will occupy the two Komusubi slots, and some upper maegashira with winning records will miss out on deserved promotion. Losses by Mitakeumi and/or Ichinojo would open up additional slots. In addition to the aforementioned M2 duo, the others still in contention for promotion are M1e Myogiryu (7-7), M3e Nishikigi (8-6), and, possibly but unlikely, M7w Shohozan (9-4). Myogiryu and Shohozan must win to have a chance, while Nishikigi could sneak in with a loss if both Komusubi slots opened up.

Who is going down to Juryo, and who is replacing them?

Today’s loss by Takanosho to Juryo visitor Daishoho will see the Makuuchi sophomore demoted back down to the second division, where he will join Arawashi and Chiyomaru. That’s three open top-division slots for certain. Two of them have been locked down by Yago and Kotoyuki [This would be Yago’s highest ever rank, while Kotoyuki has bounced in and out of Makuuchi fairly regularly. –PM]. There are three additional promotion candidates: Kotoeko, Terutsuyoshi, and Daishoho, in this order in the promotion queue. If Kotoeko wins, he claims the third slot; if he loses and Terutsuyoshi wins, it goes to Terutsuyoshi, and if both lose, Daishoho can leap over them with a victory.

What happens to the other two promotion candidates? Daishoho must win to have a strong promotion claim, while Kotoeko and Terutsuyoshi have good cases already. Losses by Chiyoshoma and Daishomaru would put them in demotion territory and make this easy. However, victories would take them to safety, leaving Chiyonokuni and Daiamami on the bubble should they lose. So we could have anywhere from three to five exchanges, and men just on either side of the line with a reason to aggrieved, depending on how tomorrow’s matches play out.