Former Komusubi Ms5 Ryuden‘s march toward a second-straight Makushita yusho was interrupted by former collegiate star Ms35 Nishikawa (7-0), who won their championship-deciding bout. After debuting at Sd100 in March, Nishikawa was on a rapidly rising trajectory before being derailed by an injury in Kyushu. It looks like he is back on track, and should be ranked in the Makushita promotion zone (Ms1-Ms5) in Osaka, where a good record could lead to a sekitori debut in May.

Despite his loss, Ms5e Ryuden (6-1) should still be promoted to Juryo. Joining him there will be Ms2w Shimazuumi (4-2) and Ms3e Takakento (4-3). That accounts for the 3 slots open due to the absences of Asanoyama, Chiyonoo, and Shiden.

J13 Chiyoarashi (4-9) has staged a bit of a rally, but still needs two wins and some banzuke luck to stay. Tomorrow, he is up against Ms4w Tochimaru (4-2); a loss will send Chiyoarashi down for sure, while a win may or may not earn Tochimaru a promotion depending on other results, and a loss won’t necessarily eliminate him from contention.

Key to this picture are the other two crossover bouts. Ms1w Atamifuji (3-3) will be in Juryo with a win, but eliminated with a loss. He takes on J13 Kotoyusho (6-7), who still needs another win for safety. And the other demotion candidate, J14 Hiradoumi (6-7) fights Shimazuumi. Finally, Ms4e Kairyu (3-3), who must win and hope for losses by others, is not on the torikumi tomorrow and is probably looking at a potential exchange bout on Day 15. I should note that there is one other potentially endangered incumbent: J11 Hakuyozan (5-8).

The Ozeki Mess

We’re in danger of running out of Ozeki. Takakeisho (1-3-7) will be kadoban in March, and Shodai (4-7) is one loss away from joining him. Should both fail to reach 8 wins in Osaka, we would not have the obligatory 2 Ozeki on the Natsu banzuke, even with Terunofuji filling a Yokozuna/Ozeki role, unless someone is promoted in the meantime. Conveniently, we have a serviceable candidate in long-serving san’yaku regular Sekiwake Mitakeumi (10-1), who’s already reached 30 wins over the past 3 basho. The only other rikishi who can mount a remotely plausible run is fellow Sekiwake Takanosho (6-5), who’d need to win at least 3 of his remaining 4 bouts and follow that up with a really strong performance in Osaka. I suppose M3e Tamawashi (7-4) is ranked just high enough that double-digit wins could count as the start of a run in a pinch, but even then he could not reach sumo’s second-highest rank until July. Anyone else would have to start from scratch in March.

The San’yaku

K1w Daieisho (3-8) has opened up the first san’yaku slot. K1e Meisei (4-7) is within one loss of opening a second, and faces the Yokozuna tomorrow. With S1e Mitakeumi at 10-1 and S1w Takanosho at 6-5 with some tough bouts to come, the possibility of all four slots coming open through a combination of promotion and demotion is still alive, although one more win by Takanosho will see him ranked no lower than Komusubi. M6w Abi (9-2) is the leading promotion contender, and he faces Takanosho tomorrow. Tamawashi is currently second in the promotion queue.

Juryo

J2e Kotoshoho (9-2) is the first to stake a real claim for a return to the top division. J1e Kagayaki (7-4) is one win away from joining him and would of course have top priority with a KK. Absent Hidenoumi’s Makuuchi slot is the only one available at the moment, but Tsurugisho, Kaisei and perhaps Chiyonokuni all need more wins than losses from here on out to be safe.

EDIT: Kaisei’s withdrawal with an ankle injury gives the freebie to Kagayaki, who’ll be back in Makuuchi, and in all likelihood sends Kaisei to Juryo.

Since Bruce asked, the following rikishi need two more wins for safety: Ichiyamamoto, Tochinoshin, Yutakayama. And several need one more: Oho, Aoiyama, Chiyotairyu, Akua, and possibly Wakamotoharu. With everyone in Juryo (except Kotoshoho and Kagayaki) at least 3 wins away from a promotion claim, many of the incumbents may well survive with less.

I’ve covered the Juryo/Makushita exchange picture elsewhere.

Former Komusubi Ms5 Ryuden (6-0) continued his march toward a second-straight Makushita yusho with a second-straight victory over Ms30 Akiseyama (5-1). Only one man still stands in his way: former collegiate star Ms35 Nishikawa (6-0).

At least 4 slots should be open in Juryo due to the absences of Asanoyama, Chiyonoo, and Shiden, and the all-but-certain demotion of J13 Chiyoarashi (2-9). One will go to Ryuden. Ms2w Shimazuumi (4-2) clinched a salaried debut by blowing away J13 Kotoyusho; he can finish no worse than 3rd in the promotion queue. Ms3e Takakento (3-3) will have his fate decided tomorrow when he visits Juryo to take on Hiradoumi. Ms1w Atamifuji (3-3) will be first or second in line with a win, but eliminated with a loss. Ms4w Tochimaru (4-2) probably needs help from others, although a win would go a long way to help his chances, while Ms4e Kairyu (3-3) must win and hope for losses by others. If none of Atamifuji, Takakento and Kairyu finish with a winning record, a promotion may happen from below the “invisible line” separating Ms1-Ms5 from the lower Makushita ranks.

The competition in the third division continues to winnow down the wrestlers to a single 7-0 champion. After 5 rounds of bouts, we are down to just three undefeated 5-0 wrestlers. The frontrunner, former Komusubi Ms5 Ryuden, prevailed over former maegashira Ms15 Tomokaze (4-1). Next up for him should be another recent member of the top division, Ms30 Akiseyama. The other remaining contender is former collegiate star Ms35 Nishikawa. Ms59 Kinbozan suffered an upset loss, the first of his career, at the hands of Sd6 Roman, whom I expect to be Nishikawa’s next opponent.

At least 3 slots are already open in Juryo due to the absences of Asanoyama, Chiyonoo, and Shiden, and another one is likely to be vacated by J13 Chiyoarashi (2-7). One will probably go to Ryuden, especially if he keeps winning. The other contenders in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone aren’t exactly setting the world on fire. Ms1 Atamifuji, after visiting Juryo and handing the leader J14 Yago (8-1) his only loss to date, has now dropped 3 in a row to fall to 2-3. He will need to win out to make his sekitori debut. Then we have Ms2 Shimazuumi (3-2), Ms3 Takakento (3-2), Ms4e Karyu (2-3), and Ms4w Tochimaru (3-2).

Atamifuji will pay another visit to Juryo tomorrow to take on Chiyoarashi. The rest don’t fight until Day 11, so come back on Wednesday to see who steps up and who drops out of the race for salaried rank.