What a blazingly hot day of sumo we just enjoyed. On top of all the yusho and promotion race matches, we had three new kachi-koshi today, congratulations to Myogiryu, Mitakeumi and of course Ozeki Takakeisho, who cleared kadoban status today. He has been day to day for the entire tournament, and I really hope that whatever injury is plaguing him that he can find some route to treatment. Maybe sit out Nagoya and seek immediate medical treatment, especially if the NSK promotes Kiribayama, who picked up his 11th win today.

In the musubi-no-ichiban went according to proper order, with Asanoyama still unable to defeat Yokozuna Terunofuji in his 6th attempt. Asanoyama’s power-grapple is a wonder against most rikishi, but against the Kaiju, it only makes it easier for him to deliver his doom. This brings the yusho race down to a head to head of Terunofuji and Kiribayama, which we will see in the final fight of day 14. I know Terunofuji is banged up, but he is still the strongest man on the dohyo this tournament.

Highlight Matches

Oho defeats Aoiyama – Another day we see Aoiyama pushing with all he can muster, which turns out to be not too much right now, and having zero stability on his feet. Oho gets him off axis and shoves him out by okuridashi. Please, oh great sumo cat of the Kokugikan, why must you taunt us with the haunting prospect of Oho scoring double digits in this basho? Oho finishes the day 9-4.

Myogiryu defeats Takarafuji – Another day where Takarafuji’s brand of sumo is thwarted by his inability to defend in his current condition. Myogiryu makes short work of marching him out by yorikiri, and is now kachi-koshi at 8-5.

Ryuden defeats Ichiyamamoto – Ichiyamamoto is unable to keep up his thrusting attacks, and Ryuden remains persistent in getting a belt hold. Once that right hand has a grip, Ryuden sets up the uwatenage that wins the match, he is now 5-8. With 9 losses, Ichiyamamoto raises the chances he will be on the Juryo barge of the damned.

Onosho defeats Kagayaki – Kagayaki opts to attack Onosho’s face and neck, leaving his body wide open for Onosho’s tsuki-oshi. Huge strategic mistake to give Onosho a big body to push against and an open inside lane. He makes short work of Kagayaki by oshidashi, improving to 7-6. Kagayaki is now make-koshi at 5-8 on the bottom rung of the banzuke, and he punches his ticket to board the Juryo barge.

Takanosho defeats Mitoryu – Both started the day make-koshi, so this match was to see who paid for beers to night. Please note, if you go have beers with sumotori, bring a LOT of yen. I did enjoy the mutual nodowa fest, that’s not frequently seen, and they both looked like they were in quite a bit of discomfort. Mitoryu drops Takanosho by hikkake, but a monoii ensues. Turns out during the nodowa battle, Mitoryu stepped out, Takanosho gets a much needed win to improve to 5-8, while Mitoryu ups his chances of joining the crew on that Juryo barge.

Chiyoshoma defeats Sadanoumi – Chiyoshoma tries for a henka, but Sadanoumi knows enough about Chiyoshoma to expect such jackassery. But it seems that he and enough of an advantage that he was in charge of the first moments of offense. Having seen the overturned hikkake the match before, it seemed ripe for employment again here, and Chiyoshoma drops the onrushing Sadanoumi like a sack of rice, improving to 7-6.

Ura defeats Daishoho – Ura establishes a body hold at the tachiai, and Daishoho establishes an arm bar hold in response. Ura seems to like his position, and executes a lighting fast katasukashi to drop Daishoho to the clay. Loss number 8 for Daishoho, and he is make-koshi while Ura improves to 7-6.

Tobizaru defeats Kotoeko – Kotoeko could not defend center-mass, and was summarily pushed back with not too much effort by Tobizaru’s rapid combo attacks. The oshidashi takes Tobizaru to 6-7, and denies Kotoeko his kachi-koshi today.

Tamawashi defeats Takayasu – Good lord, Takayasu, why did you come back from kyujo. He clearly is still struggling with that leg injury that sent him kyujo to begin with. Tamawashi sets up a thrust, and Takayasu can’t step back and out fast enough. Tamawashi advances to 7-6.

Midorifuji defeats Hokutofuji – Ladies and Gentlemen! I present to you, The most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo! In true Hokutofuji style, he hoovered up his 8th win with energetic, forward moving sumo. But after a throw attempt fell apart, Midorifuji countered with a katasukashi, dropping him to the clay. Both end the day 5-8.

Abi defeats Nishikifuji – Around and around they go, who falls first, nobody knows. Nishikifuji had the better tachiai, but let Abi grab his belt. Abi could not really complete his attempt to throw or swing Nishikifuji out, and both lost their balance. Abi kept his feet while Nishikifuji went tumbling down. Abi improves to 7-6.

Nishikigi defeats Shodai – Nishikigi took his time, and set up his hold. It seems Shodai was counting on the Wall of Daikon to save him today, but could never get his feet set up to deploy it. Nishikigi kept his form, kept his grip and walked Shodai out for a yorikiri, improving to 7-6. That is six straight wins for Nishikigi, wow!

Kotonowaka defeats Kinbozan – Kinbozan can tell he is in the big leagues this basho, as he is trying some of his best moves and getting the stuffing beat out of him in response. If he can adapt and improve, he will be a big deal for years to come. Kinbozan gets captured and pulled to Kotonowaka’s chest early on, shutting down most of what Kinbozan probably had wanted to try. If he wants to be a contender, he really is going to need to be able to at least defend against a mawashi grip. Kotonowaka’s yorikiri takes him to 6-7.

Wakamotoharu defeats Tsurugisho – Wakamotoharu stops Tsurugisho’s winning streak at 6, which is damn impressive for Tsurugisho. After a protracted and pointless stare down, Wakamotoharu made fast work of Tsurugisho as he rushed forward into the tachiai. Both end the day 9-4.

Mitakeumi defeats Daieisho – Excellent defensive foot placement by Mitakeumi allowed him to withstand Daieisho blistering mega-thrust opening. He endured Daieisho’s early surge of offense and waited to get a grip. Mitakeumi got his grapple, and launched forward, taking Daieisho to the clay for his 8th win and kachi-koshi. Both end the day 8-5.

Hoshoryu defeats Hiradoumi – Man, the schedulers need to give Hiradoumi a cream puff match for this 8th win. It was kind of funny up to this point, but that’s 4 days in a row you have given him ball buster opponents when he is on the cusp of a hard earned kachi-koshi. And no, you don’t need to have him fight Terunofuji, the joke has worn thin. I give him points for that excellent block at the tachiai to shut down Hoshoryu’s first grip attempt. But he’s no match for Hoshoryu… yet. Hoshoryu picks up a welcome win to move him closer to double digits and is now 9-4.

Kiribayama defeats Hokuseiho – Hopefully no one is surprised that once Hokuseiho got a hold, he was going to go into his long term stance, wearing Kiribayama down. After a lengthy period of standing an leaning, Hokuseiho attempts offense, but his legs are too stiff, and at his height he struggles to get his center of force low enough to unweight Kiribayama. Hokuseiho tries a leg trip to no effect, then continues to lean on Kiribayama. Hokuseiho then seems to lose focus? Kiribayama stands him up, employs a foot trip and drops Hokuseiho backward by sotogake. 11 wins now for Kiribayama at 11-2.

Takakeisho defeats Meisei – You can condemn Takakeisho for that side step, but when you think about it, it was something Meisei should have been ready for. Needing a win no matter what to clear kadoban, he saw a chance and he took it. Was it good sumo? No! Was is strategically correct? Yes. Takakeisho now kachi-koshi and will retain his Ozeki rank until at least November. Both end the day 8-5.

Terunofuji defeats Asanoyama – If Asanoyama pictures himself re-taking his Ozeki rank, he would be well served to figure out a different approach to fighting Terunofuji. Granted, he’s never fought Yokozuna Terunofuji, but after five tries and zero wins, you would think he could bring something other than his normal left hand lead body grip. That’s about as rapid a kotenage as you are likely to see, and Asanoyama looked completely helpless to do anything other than hit the clay with a resounding thud. By the way, in the Kokugikan, you can sometimes hear the guys land with a thud. It’s glorious. Terunofuji now 12-1, and remains in sole possession of the lead.

Day 13 is the Friday before the final weekend of the Natsu 2022 tournament. We are seeing some big rank gaps in some of the match ups, as the rikishi work through their final 3 matches. There are a healthy crop of athletes that are on course to be eligible for day 15 “Darwin Matches” where a pair of 7-7 rikishi compete to see who gets a losing or a winning record.

There is already a lot of talk about a Kiribayama promotion to Ozeki from the English language sumo fan crowd. I do hope they are right, but please consider reserving enthusiasm until someone from the sumo kyokai says something. I recall Takakeisho’s promotion required an additional basho of double digit performance before they would punch his ticket, and I would not consider it out of character to see that again in my lifetime. In my opinion, he has probably earned it. But as an English language sumo blogger, my opinion counts for nothing in the world of sumo ranking.

Natsu Leaderboard

In reality, the cup will go to one of the group of Terunofuji, Kiribayama or Asanoyama. I would not be shocked to see Terunofuji kyujo today due to what he did jumping from the dohyo. But given his attitude toward sumo and being a Yokozuna, he is likely to be toe to to with Asanoyama for the final match.

Leader: Terunofuji
Chasers: Kiribayama, Asanoyama
Hunt Group: Tsurugisho

3 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 13

Aoiyama (4-8) vs Oho (8-4) – Both have already determined their make / kachi-koshi, so this is really about determining rank. I am not sure about Oho, as he seems to go through “hot” and “cold” periods with his sumo. But as for today, I think Aoiyama is so banged up that I think Oho should be able to beat him.

Myogiryu (7-5) vs Takarafuji (4-8) – Myogiryu will attempt to secure his 8th win today against ailing Takarafuji. Already make-koshi, Takarafuji may be edging toward the exit over the next year, unless he can get his chronic injuries remedied. They share a 25 match history with Myogiryu leading 16-9.

Ryuden (4-8) vs Ichiyamamoto (4-8) – Both are already make-koshi, so this is all about rank, and maybe to find out of Ichiyamamoto will get a ticket for the Juryo barge of the damned. Their only prior match was day 1 of Aki 2022, which Ichiyamamoto won. Both of them need to regroup and try to return healthy in Nagoya.

Onosho (6-6) vs Kagayaki (5-7) – Two rikishi still very much in the hunt for an outcome, with Onosho dead in the middle of the make/kachi-koshi line at 6-6. I would not put hopes on Kagayaki, even though he has a narrow 8-6 career advantage. His sumo has been poor and lacking power, while Onosho’s has been lacking any real balance or ability to maintain contact with his opponent. A loss today would be make-koshi for Kagayaki, and a near certain return to Juryo.

Mitoryu (4-8) vs Takanosho (4-8) – Another make-koshi pair up, and I would guess Mitoryu would be eager to find any win he can right now, to avoid bunking with Kagayaki on that Juryo barge. Mitoryu does have a 7-1 career record against Takanosho, who should be counted among the list of “get healthy for July” crew.

Sadanoumi (5-7) vs Chiyoshoma (6-6) – A solid funnel match, with both of them candidates to make it to a day 15 Darwin match. Thought I would put my hopes on Chiyoshoma today. He has a 7-5 lead against Sadanoumi, who is one loss away from make-koshi. Sadanoumi did win their only prior match this year, during Hatsu day 15.

Ura (6-6) vs Daishoho (5-7) – It would seem it’s time to deliver an 8th loss and a make-koshi to Daishoho. Ura has beaten Daishoho all 4 times they have fought before. I do hope that Ura’s knees are ok after the day 12 barn burner with Tobizaru. With a 6-6, we can be fairly certain that Ura will end up in a Darwin match.

Tobizaru (5-7) vs Kotoeko (7-5) – For folks wondering about a “Funnel” match, this is a great example. Tobizaru has a 6-3 career advantage over Kotoeko, and given how both of them have been fighting this month, I expect Tobizaru to win this one. That will result in Tobizaru at 6-7, Kotoeko at 7-6. That would mean a day 14 win for Tobizaru, and a day 14 loss for Kotoeko to get them both to 7-7.

Takayasu (1-2-9) vs Tamawashi (6-6) – 33 career matches between these two, split as close to evenly as you could want. They are both rather banged up right now, and I don’t expect more than 50% power out of either one of them. So it’s anyone’s guess who is going to gamberize through the pain and stiffness better. Maybe Tamawashi? Tamawashi could use a win, but is still likely to end up 7-7 to start day 15.

Hokutofuji (5-7) vs Midorifuji (4-8) – Midorifuji is already make-koshi, but it falls to him to bestow the honor of delivering a make-koshi to Hokutofuji, if he can win the match today. We jokingly refer to Hokutofuji as the man with “The most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo!” Due to the fact he fights vigorously, then loses. They have both won one of the their 2 prior matches this year.

Abi (6-6) vs Nishikifuji (3-9) – Oh Abi, fans are really starting to dislike you. I think it’s the henkas. Sure, they can be fun and the chicks dig a guy who can jump like a lizard on a hot plate, but do fight head to head today. You should be able to toss a hurt Nishikifuji around as you please. Save that last henka for your day 15 Darwin match.

Shodai (6-6) vs Nishikigi (6-6) – Both are 6-6, and it may come down to if Nishikigi can get his arm bar hold on Shodai, and which version of Shodai we get today. The genki one will give him a blubbery body block and send him out. Shodai has a 5-3 career record, but right now Nishikigi is on a hot streak, having won 5 in a row. Both are great Darwin candidates for day 15.

Kotonowaka (5-7) vs Kinbozan (4-8) – First ever match up, and Kinbozan can serve up a steaming plate of make-koshi surprise to Kotonowaka if he can get the right body position by the second step. For his first ever tour of the joi-jin, Kinbozan has had the traditional rough ride. Fear not fans, he will be back after some work to improve his sumo.

Tsurugisho (9-3) vs Wakamotoharu (8-4) – Wow, look who came all the way up the banzuke to fight a Sekiwake! It’s a surprisingly genki Tsurugisho who at 9-3 can go double digits today. I was also surprised to see that he has a 5-2 career record against Wakamotoharu. They last fought on day 6 of Hatsu 2022, when both were near the bottom of the Makuuchi banuzke.

Daieisho (8-4) vs Mitakeumi (7-5) – Having taken Asanoyama out of the lead on day 12, Daieisho has a chance to block Mitakeumi from getting to his 8th win today. They have had 26 carer matches, with Mitakeumi having a narrow 14-12 edge. A closer look at that record shows that Mitakeumi has not won against Daieisho since Day 3 of Osaka 2022; Daieisho has won the last 5 in a row.

Hiradoumi (7-5) vs Hoshoryu (8-4) – Good lord, Hiradoumi cannot catch a break. He has been trying for the last 3 days to get that elusive 8th win, and who does he draw on day 13? Oh nice, Hoshoryu. Them’s the breaks sir, but if you pull it off it will indeed be a big deal.

Kiribayama (10-2) vs Hokuseiho (8-4) – The Miyagino giant goes up against Ozeki hopeful Kiribayama, and boy is this a juicy match. Many fans are pre-celebrating Kiribayama’s Ozeki promotion, which may in fact be forthcoming in a few days. But I do know and think I understand that kyokai can seem a bit capricious at times, and direct someone to “try again”. A loss today to Maegashira 11 Hokuseiho might warrant such a move, or it might be part of a plan to see if Hokuseiho can actually fight the big guys.

Meisei (8-4) vs Takakeisho (7-5) – Just one more win, Ozeki. You have 3 days to get just one more win. I am not sure if you can do it, but I know you will give it your all. Meisei has lost 3 in a row, and as long as he does not get a hold on Takakeisho’s mawashi, the Ozeki should be able to take care of him. Takakeisho has an 8-4 career lead.

Terunofuji (11-1) vs Asanoyama (10-2) – I am not sure you can get a bigger match up this tournament. We have former Ozeki Asanoyama trying to take out Terunofuji to even up the score at the top of the yusho race and put him back in contention for the up. Should he manage to do that, it will in all likelihood be a 3 way tie with Kiribayama, who I except to find some way to beat the languid Hokuseiho. What could throw a wrench into all of this would be a Terunofuji kyujo following whatever he did to his knees on day 12 with that leap from the dohyo. Please note that Asanoyama has not beaten Terunofuji in 5 attempts, and I think he may not know if he can.

In the day 12 preview, I made reference to an attempt to funnel as many rikishi as possible toward a 7-7 record at the end of day 14, to set up a series of “Darwin Matches”. To get there, the scheduling committee sometimes works to pair rikishi with middling records against each other, in hopes of steering as many of them as possible to that 7-7 outcome. If that had been going on, it was blown up today as many who needed a win lost, and many who needed a loss won. Does that mean no 7-7 “Darwin” matches on Sunday? Not at all. But I think the active effort to herd rikishi to that score fell apart today.

The two leaders, Asanoyama and Terunofuji, split their matches today, with Asanoyama losing to Daieisho, and Terunofuji beating Wakamotoharu. This gives Terunofuji sole possession of the yusho lead. But you will note when you watch the video of today’s senshuraku, Terunofuji had to leap from the dohyo at the end of his match, and you can see the pain written over his body. We just hope his knees hold out for another 3 days.

Highlight Matches

Ichiyamamoto defeats Chiyoshoma – Ichiyamamoto picks up a very welcome win in an even match that was lost when Chiyoshoma lost his stance and dropped to the clay. There was at least two Ichiyamamoto pull attempts in there too, and it was a chaotic mess of a match. Ichiyamamoto now 4-8.

Myogiryu defeats Daishoho – It took a few matta to get them started, I don’t know if Daishoho was trying to throw Myogiryu off, or if Daishoho chugged a dozen coffees before mounting the dohyo. It did not help Daishoho at all, and he was quickly out by yorikiri. Myogiryu now 7-5 and could reach kachi-koshi tomorrow.

Takarafuji defeats Mitoryu – I know that Takarafuji has struggled with maintaining forward pressure for most of Natsu, but he was able to stave off Mitoryu for a fair amount of time. After they were both tired enough, Mitoryu charged ahead, Takarafuji escaped and they both stepped out. A monoii declared a rematch. In the second attempt, we got to see the spectacle of Mitoryu attempting an henka. He actually caught a surprising amount of air in that leap. It failed and Takarafuji never let Mitoryu get balance back or place his feet. Mitoryu now make-koshi as both end the day 4-8.

Oho defeats Onosho – Oho has now won 7 of the last 8, and 4 in a row. Like many of his matches, he let Onosho do most of the work. But superb timing counts for quite a bit more than power forward at times. Onosho is convinced he is about to drive Oho out, but Oho steps aside and applies the hatakikomi to get his 8th win. He is now kachi-koshi for Natsu.

Tsurugisho defeats Hiradoumi – I feel for Hiradoumi, who has lost 3 days in a row trying to get his 8th. Hiradoumi finds his left hand blocked by an ottsuke, and can never quite get a working grip. Plus there is quite a lot of Tsurugisho to try and overcome. Tsurugisho finds his hold, and just powers through Hiradoumi’s defenses for a yorikiri to improve to 9-3.

Kotoeko defeats Sadanoumi – A funnel match that went on the rocks, Sadanoumi showed us some speed today, but perhaps more than he should have employed. He was all forward power when Kotoeko pivoted at the bales and sent him into the salt basket for a loss by tsukiotoshi. Kotoeko now 7-5.

Hokutofuji defeats Ryuden – Hokutofuji not ready to accept his obligatory make-koshi just yet. Ryuden had a few good combo attacks, but Hokutofuji took control at the tachiai and kept the pressure on. Ryuden ended the match falling sideways off of the dohyo by oshitaoshi, and Hokutofuji improves to 5-7.

Tamawashi defeats Aoiyama – In this battle of the grizzled veterans, it’s clear that Aoiyama is a bit more banged up than Tamawashi. Tamawashi is able to power through what passes for defense this month from Aoiyama, and the moment it is clear he is at the bales, Aoiyama goes soft and steps out. This is sumo from an injured man. Tamawashi takes the much needed win and is now 6-6, Aoiyama earns his 8th loss and is now make-koshi.

Mitakeumi defeats Kagayaki – Happy to say that Mitakeumi is not yet so far gone that he can be beaten by Kagayaki. Kagayaki gave it a good effort at the tachiai, but once Mitakeumi had him to his chest, he was all forward power to walk Kagayaki out. Mitakeumi now 7-5.

Ura defeats Tobizaru – These two are very inventive rikishi, and so it was surprising to see them throw more or less the same combos at each other time and again for the duration of this lengthy match. Don’t get me wrong, it’s a good fight and the crowd loved it. But I was looking for more nonsense than we got – at least at first. That ending exchange – you have Tobizaru off axis pushing into an unbalanced Ura, who plants his feet, ducks down and head rams a charging Tobizaru. Tobizaru grabs Ura’s head, and Ura lifts with his back and pivots. Down goes Tobizaru and Ura crumples to the clay, with his knees clearly a concern. Kimarite is listed as zubuneri – a head pivot throw, which was last seen in the top division in 1998 when Asahiyutaka used it to defeat Terao on day 5 in Osaka. Ura now 6-6.

Nishikifuji defeats Takanosho – When you are fighting as poorly as Nishikifuji has been this month, winning in reverse gear is “good enough” to be sure. He lets Takanosho supply the energy to power the uwatenage that wins the match, sealing Takanosho’s make-koshi at 4-8, while Nishikifuji advances to 3-9.

Abi defeats Meisei – Abi’s henka catches Meisei at the right time, and sets up the oshitaoshi one step later that wins the match. Meisei looks a bit hurt, or just knocked about and is slow to get up. Abi now 6-6.

Midorifuji defeats Takayasu – The powerful Takayasu of yesterday is nowhere to be seen today, as Midorifuji gets underneath and drives Takayasu out at a gallop. Midorifuji now 4-8.

Nishikigi defeats Kotonowaka – That’s 5 wins in a row for Nishikigi – what on earth? Nishikigi gets his preferred arm bar hold early, and Kotonowaka swaps to defense. With Kotonowaka moving back, Nishikigi keeps up the pressure and finds center mass. The results are an oshidashi that improves his score to 6-6.

Shodai defeats Kinbozan – The version of Shodai with some level of sumo skill mounted the dohyo today. Kinbozan had a good opening attack, but found Shodai reverse his position and grapple in for a quick yorikiri. Shodai now 6-6, and I wish I could buy that man some consistency.

Daieisho defeats Asanoyama – Daieisho takes Asanoyama out of his tie for the lead with a quick mega-thrust win. This is the sumo I expected from Daieisho I expected yesterday against Takakeisho, but good enough here. Because Asanoyama had the easier route to double digits, I wonder if maybe he is not quite ready to fight the san’yaku again just yet. The give away was that pull attempt that opened the door for Daieisho’s oshidashi. I am sure he will improve his sumo a bit more for Nagoya. Daieisho kachi-koshi at 8-4.

Hoshoryu defeats Hokuseiho – I did enjoy watching Hoshoryu come to grips with the size difference in real time. His body and his movements communicated “wow, what the hell is going on?” at least twice. To his credit he kept trying things until he found one that worked, and forced it to his advantage. The attempt at shitatenage fell apart, but broke Hokuseiho grip, and set up the okuridashi. Both end the day 8-4.
Hoshoryu: 8-4

Kiribayama defeats Takakeisho – As soon as Kiribayama got that right hand belt grip, it was two quick steps to the yorkikiri, and double digits for Kiribayama. Will it be enough for him to reach Ozeki for July? I think we will find out shortly after the tournament ends. He is now 10-2.

Terunofuji defeats Wakamotoharu – Wakamotoharu boldly goes chest to chest with the Yokozuna, and does an admirable job of keeping Terunofuji away from his belt. With a working hold Wakamotoharu surges forward toward the bales, but catches a pivot from Terunofuji and drops as he is placed out for Terunofuji’s 11th win. But the Yokozuna is badly off balanced, and hops down from the dohyo. He looks shocked with pain, and I have to wonder if maybe he did not just end his efforts for May. Terunofuji is 11-1 by yoritaoshi.

We are about to start day 12, and only a handful of matches remain in the 2022 Natsu basho. It’s going to be intense as we have a lot of high interest matches today including an extended tour of the upper ranks by the Miyagino giant Hokuseiho. The second to last match has a lot of attention from fans, some of them saying that whomever wins will be Ozeki in July. I am not yet convinced that Kiribayama will get the nod this basho if he only beats an injured Takakeisho. Of course the whole matter is up to the Sumo Kyokai, and I am sure we will hear about it shortly after the final match on Sunday.

For Sunday, there is now a Darwin’s Funnel in effect. We can clearly see the schedulers working to herd as many rikishi with middling scores towards a day 14 finishing score of 7-7, setting up a spread of single elimination matches. As nasty and cruel as it may seem, it underscores the zero sumo game that is sumo. Every time someone gets a white star, the other rikishi gets a black star. Thus there are only so many wins in any division at the end of day 15. Those that accumulate a lot, like Terunofuji and Asanoyama, have to pull them from their opponents.\

Natsu Leaderboard

We are nearly to the point where the only path to the cup will be with Terunofuji, Asanoyama and Kiribayama. I still favor Terunofuji to win it all, but the last 4 matches are likely to be brutal. I also wonder how many more upper rank challenges Hokuseiho will face. It’s one thing to throw the former Ozeki M14 Asanoyama at the san’yaku, he more or less belongs there right now, but it’s another thing for Hokuseiho to have a daily diet of sumo’s best right now. For having such challenges in his path, he has done remarkably well.

Leaders: Terunofuji, Asanoyama
Chasers: Kiribayama
Hunt Group: Wakamotoharu, Meisei, Hokuseiho, Tsurugisho

4 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 12

Chiyoshoma (6-5) vs Ichiyamamoto (3-8) – Ichiyamamoto is already make-koshi, and may be employed here to donate a win to Chiyoshoma. He is the Kokonoe heyagashira, and it would be good to keep him in the top division. They have a fairly even 2-3 record, so this is far from a certain win for Chiyoshoma. He still needs 2 wins to reach his 8.

Myogiryu (6-5) vs Daishoho (5-6) – An excellent funnel match, as both of these rikishi are straddling the center line. Ideally Myogiryu would lose and they would both end the day 6-6. The wrinkle in that plan is that Myogiryu has beaten Daishoho in both prior matches.

Mitoryu (4-7) vs Takarafuji (3-8) – Mitoryu is one loss away from make-koshi, and he goes up against already make-koshi Takarafuji, who seems completely unable to execute anything other than the motions of a sumo match, without any of the required power to make it work.

Onosho (6-5) vs Oho (7-4) – As unlikely as it may seem, an Oho win today would be kachi-koshi for him. It would mean an amazing 7 wins out of the last 8 matches, which given how lethargic his sumo has been just does not seem plausible. Onosho won their prior match this year against an overall 1-2 career record. Maybe Onosho can come in ready to grab his 7th win today.

Tsurugisho (8-3) vs Hiradoumi (7-4) – I don’t recall ever seeing Tsurugisho fight this well in the top division. Today’s match will test out just how genki he is during act 3. He gets to face hot shot Hiradoumi, who has beaten Tsurugisho in all 3 prior matches. A win today for Hiradoumi would be kachi-koshi.

Sadanoumi (5-6) vs Kotoeko (6-5) – Both of these rikishi have fought well this basho, but not well enough to escape the funnel. They are straddling the center line and the recommended outcome is both are 6-6 at the end of today. Kotoeko does have a career 9-5 record against Sadanoumi, having won the last 6 matches in a row.

Hokutofuji (4-7) vs Ryuden (4-7) – One of these two will leave the dohyo today with a fresh new make-koshi. We all know that Hokutofuji is the man with the most powerful make-koshi in all of sumo, and that might make him a favorite to lose today. But in fact, he has a 10-5 career lead over Ryuden, who seems to be suffering once more from a chronic hip injury.

Aoiyama (4-7) vs Tamawashi (5-6) – A pair of grizzled old vets with 4 working tendons between them. Both are fighting at maybe 50% intensity, and it’s kind of tough to watch. Sure Aoiyama has a 9-7 career record against Tamawashi, but that’s not likely to matter right now given how banged up they both are. A loss today would be make-koshi for Aoiyama.

Kagayaki (5-6) vs Mitakeumi (6-5) – Another Darwin’s funnel match, with both rikishi straddling the center line. But Kagayaki has never won against Mitakeumi, and if Mitakeumi loses today, I am going to consider revoking his Tadpole status.

Tobizaru (5-6) vs Ura (5-6) – More funnel madness! Both men are 5-6, the winner gets to keep on track for a day 15 Darwin match, the loser is one black star away from make-koshi. Tobizaru holds a 5-1 career advantage, but I try to keep in mind that Ura seems to have found a reserve of reality distortion cream, and is using it to win matches the last 2 days.

Takanosho (4-7) vs Nishikifuji (2-9) – You combine Takanosho’s record, and his 0-3 history against Nishikifuji, and you get a likely outcome of make-koshi for Takanosho today. Nishikifuji is already there, so he is likely happy to bring another into the losing side of the roster. The only problem to that is how poorly Nishikifuji has been fighting this month.

Abi (5-6) vs Meisei (8-3) – Sadly once red hot Meisei has faded into the second week, and has now lost 3 of the last 4 after dropping a match to Hiradoumi on day 8. He has a tough fight against Abi today, who has a 6-4 history of taking his lunch money. In addition, Meisei has lost all prior matches to Abi this year. An Abi win would put him at 6-6, a prime position for the funnel.

Takayasu (1-1-9) vs Midorifuji (3-8) – Takayasu is already at a 10 loss make-koshi, so he’s really just trying to cushion the fall at this point. He’s got size and skill over Midorifuji on a good day, but Midorifuji is not looking anything like his normal self. He’s already make-koshi, and has lost 3 straight matches coming into today.

Kotonowaka (5-6) vs Nishikigi (5-6) – Both are 5-6, so this is a prime funnel match. Kotonowaka has the well earned reputation for being a tough competitor, but I hope he does not underestimate what Nishikigi can do if he gets the right opening. The winner will advance to 6-6 and be in the middle of the funnel for day 13.

Shodai (5-6) vs Kinbozan (4-7) – I am not sure who should win here. I know that if Kinbozan loses he is make-koshi, but that’s going to happen anyhow. If Shodai wins, he’s in the middle of the funnel. Oh my, such temptations. I think it would be best if Kinbozan can stave off make-koshi for another day. This is their first ever match.

Daieisho (7-4) vs Asanoyama (10-1) – Daieisho can reach kachi-koshi and knock Asanoyama out of the lead at the same time. That’s quite a nice ripe peach to be picked. He has a 9-7 career advantage against the former Ozeki, so maybe he can make it work. Their last match was day 12 of Natsu 2021, which Asanoyama won. Let the deja-vu commence!

Hokuseiho (8-3) vs Hoshoryu (7-4) – They are not giving Maegashira 11 Hokuseiho any breaks, he is now stomping up to battle against Hoshoryu, who needs to overcome a ludicrous size advantage to pick up his 8th win and reach kachi-koshi. Hopefully he watch the footage of how Wakamotoharu did it, but I would guess that Hakuho / Miyagino is loading his giant up with some explicit things to try in todays match. Should be worth staying up to watch.

Kiribayama (9-2) vs Takakeisho (7-4) – A big battle in the second to last match. If Takakeisho wins, he clears kadoban. If Kiribayama wins, he reaches double digits and has a fairly strong case to be promoted to Ozeki. If Takakeisho was healthy, he would have the advantage, but we know he is not. I expect Kiribayama is going to capture a belt hold early and toss the Grand Tadpole out of the pond.

Terunofuji (10-1) vs Wakamotoharu (8-3) – They have only fought twice before, with both going to Terunofuji. He’s holding in tough for the final 4 matches, and he’s still the favorite to take the cup. But Wakamotoharu has made a step change improvement to his sumo, and I want to see him give the Yokozuna a challenging fight today.