First, the headline item. If Shodai can prevail over fellow Ozeki Asanoyama, and Okinoumi, with kachi-koshi on the line, can upset Daieisho, we’ll have a playoff between the two for all the marbles. Any other outcome will see the M1w lifting the cup.
The san’yaku ranks
All the incumbents are kachi-koshi, which means that they will keep their ranks. Daieisho (12-2) has certainly done enough this time to force at least an extra Komusubi slot, and another win would probably see him vault all the way to Sekiwake. Takarafuji (9-5) will be ranked at M1e, which will either be a somewhat unlucky break if he loses, or a very unlucky break if he ends with 10 wins. With a 10-man san’yaku, the M17e rank will disappear.
Darwin bouts
In what must be a bitter disappointment for Bruce, all but three rikishi ended up above or below the 7-7 line by Day 14. In addition to the above-mentioned Okinoumi, we have M9 Myogiryu and M15 Yutakayama, who are indeed matched up in the final day’s only Darwin bout.
Makuuchi-Juryo exchanges
M17e Sadanoumi (5-9) will be heading down. M13e Akua‘s (5-9) top-division slot will be on the line in what is likely an exchange bout with a leading promotion candidate, J6 Hidenoumi (10-4), Tobizaru’s big brother, who hasn’t been in the top division since March 2018. The other Juryo rikishi hoping to move up with a win are J8 Tsurugisho (11-3), J1 Daiamami (7-7), and J8 Daishomaru (10-4), a somewhat marginal candidate, who is matched with another endangered incumbent, M8e Tokushoryu (3-11). Should all four promotion candidates be successful, Yutakayama would be well-advised to get his 8th win in order to avoid leaving his fate in the hands of the banzuke committee.
Oh, and the Juryo race just got interesting, with Tsurugisho leading Hidenoumi, Daishomaru, and J10 Ura by one win. If the leader loses to former top-division mainstay J13 Ikioi (6-8), who needs a win himself to stay in the salaried ranks, we may not know if we will have a playoff until after the third Makuuchi bout, at which point the top-division action would have to take a break. Fingers crossed!
Juryo-Makushita exchanges
J14e Ryuko (5-9) will be heading right back down to the third division, as will J11w Oho (4-10), who may want to revert to his old shikona, Naya. In addition to Ikioi, J7w Nishikigi (3-11) and J9w Kotoyuki (4-10) also need to win to remain sekitori. With 6 winning records in the Makushita promotion zone, none can count on being saved by banzuke luck.
Makushita barnyard brawl!!!
I covered this yesterday, but we will have a nine-way playoff for the Makushita yusho! No, that’s not a misprint. As usual, two rikishi went into day 13 with 6-0 records, but because they hail from the same heya, they could not be matched head-to-head ad instead faced 5-1 opponents. Both lost, letting their opponents and 5 other lucky men into the playoff, which will feature everyone from Ms5w promotion candidate and recent sekitori Nishikifuji to the last man in the dvision, Ms60w Fukamiyama.
I believe the protocol here is they draw straws for a bye, the other 8 are paired up and we’re down to 5, another drawing of straws, 4 rikishi paired up, and we’re down to 3, who enter the usual tomoe-sen in which the first wrestler to win two consecutive bouts is the champion.
The penultimate day of Hatsu was a roaring, back breaking, endurance grinding, dirt eating thrill. Not sure when I have seen such a day of quality sumo, and I am glad I was around to see it. The match of the day is, without a doubt, Terunofuji’s win over Shodai. Since Daieisho’s sweep of the Ozeki in week one, it was clear that any chaser was going to have to overcome very strong competition in week 2. Shodai’s sumo has been both impressive and a bit chaotic, but Terunofuji really gave him a fight today.
Daieisho has Okinoumi on day 15, who comes into the match at 7-7. I am not sure the veteran from Shimane-ken has what it takes this January to put Daieisho into the dohyo and bring about the potential for a playoff – if and only if Shodai can overcome Asanoyama. Daieisho owns his destiny now, and a win on day 15 will give him the Emperor’s Cup.
My compliments to the scheduling team in once again building a great basho with less than optimum materials to work from.
Highlight Matches
Kotonowaka defeats Yutakayama – Yet another day, and Yutakayama can’t get his 8th win. You can see the point where Yutakayama lets his frustration boil over, lunge in and give the match to Kotonowaka. Well, it’s Darwin time for Yutakayama on day 15. Kotonowaka improves to 10-4.
Myogiryu defeats Kotoeko – Myogiryu joins Yutakayama in the day 15 Darwin queue, as he defeats Kotoeko in spite of a last minute throw by Kotoeko. That’s loss number eight for Kotoeko and make-koshi.
Tokushoryu defeats Sadanoumi – Sadanoumi elects to get chest to chest with Tokushoryu, and Tokushoryu’s belly. The belly takes control and pushes Sadanoumi over the bales. Tokushoryu advances to 3-11 (well, 2(1)-11, that’s his belly there with one win).
Kiribayama defeats Midorifuji – An excellent endurance match, with Midorifuji supplying most of the offensive energy, and Kiribayama working hard to keep Midorifuji shut down and himself in the match. Then…. MAWASHI FAIL. Not enough that the NHK cameras comically pan to the roof in panic, but Kiribayama’s came loose, and the gyoji stops the match to perform a bit of in-situ haberdashery. Kiribayama’s post pause pulling attempt disrupted the stalemate, and he was able to get Midorifuji moving and pushed him out. Excellent sumo, and Kiribayama finds his 8th win for kachi-koshi. Brilliant match.
Hoshoryu defeats Tobizaru – A fine thrusting battle that was more or less even until Tobizaru attempts a pull and releases forward pressure. Hoshoryu capitalizes on this opening and runs Tobizaru off to visit the fans ring side. Tobizaru picks up his 8th loss and is make-koshi while Hoshoryu advances to 9-5. Nine straight wins after a 0-5 start.
Akua defeats Ryuden – Ryuden gets a bit too far forward and Akua uses his arm to lever him to the clay. Both are deeply make-koshi, but Akua improves to 5-9.
Akiseyama defeats Tochinoshin – Its becoming a frequent refrain – Tochinoshin’s knees don’t allow him to transmit enough power to ground to permit him to hold back a top division rikishi. Once Akiseyama starts to advance, all Tochinoshin can do is try to deflect. But that fails and he’s out in a moment. Akiseyama improves to 9-5.
Terutsuyoshi defeats Kotoshoho – Terutsuyoshi brought heaps of offensive power to this match, but Kotoshoho was not going to be a push over, in spite of what his 1-12 score might indicate. Even when Terutsuyoshi has morozashi, Kotoshoho defended and even brought Terutsuyoshi back to the center of the dohyo. Feeling an opportunity, Kotoshoho drover forward for a win, right into Terutsuyoshi’s utchari. Terutsuyoshi improves to 6-8. You have to feel for Kotoshoho, but he’s young, he’s good, and he will be back.
Shimanoumi defeats Onosho – Shimanoumi absorbed Onosho’s initial forward blast, and in many matches, that’s 80% of winning against Onosho. Shimanoumi stayed calm, stayed focused, and kept working to dial up the forward power, driving Onosho out by yorikiri. That’s win number 8 and kachi-koshi for Shimanoumi.
Takarafuji defeats Ichinojo – When Takarafuji endured Ichinojo’s opening combo, it was clear he was going to be able to set up his defend and extend technique against the Boulder. Other’s have tried this January, so bold move from Takarafuji. Takarafuji wisely set up with Ichinojo off axis, and did not need to bare the full weight of Ichinojo leaning forward. Takarafuji kept working a bit at a time further to the side of Ichinojo, reducing Ichinojo’s ability to push. I think it got to the point where Takarafuji realized it was “now or never” and lifted Ichinojo from the side and drove for the win. Great effort from both. That burst of strength from Takarafuji about 2 minutes into an endurance match really surprised me. Both end the day with 9-5.
Hokutofuji defeats Aoiyama – Again, where was this sumo week one Hokutofuji? With his mighty make-koshi firmly secured, Hokutofuji dominates each match now. To be fair Aoiyama decided to try and pull, and that just opened the door for Hokutofuji’s big thrust that won the match. He improves to 6-8.
Daieisho defeats Tamawashi – I was impressed that Daieisho’s big opening combo did not really move Tamawashi, who absorbed a couple of volleys, then attacked. Daieisho’s mobility was perfect, and he pulled in response to Tamawashi’s forward lunge, stepping to the side and bringing Tamawashi down. Daieisho improves to 12-2 and the yusho train keeps rolling.
Takayasu defeats Kagayaki – The move to look for is Takayasu’s big twist to break Kagayaki’s grip. It’s small and easy to miss, but that was magic, and it’s at that moment that Takayasu took control of the match and powered Kagayaki out. Takayasu improves to 9-5.
Endo defeats Mitakeumi – Endo got his frontal grip a moment after the tachiai, and he was in business. Sure, at that point it was like lifting a refrigerator across a curb, but Endo got it done. He improves to 6-8.
Takanosho defeats Okinoumi – To my eye that tachiai was in matta territory, but they went ahead with the match. Okinoumi was powering forward, and Takanosho responded with a step back and a hand to the back of Okinoumi’s neck. That’s win 8 for Takanosho. That’s kachi-koshi for Takanosho, and Okinoumi will need to win on day 15 to reach 8. Against…. Daieisho?!!
Terunofuji defeats Shodai – The big match we were all waiting to see, and it did not disappoint. Shodai opted to open defensive, and attempted a thrust down against the 3rd step of Terunofuji’s overpower charge. But Terunofuji’s balance was too well established, and the fight was on. Shodai pressed the attack chest to chest, and nearly drove Terunofuji from the ring, but again Terunofuji kept his feet quiet, and heavy. Shodai was leaping to maximize pressure, but could not finish him. For an instant Shodai found himself behind Terunofuji, but could not attack in time. Terunofuji attacks again, Shodai loses his footing and the kaiju slaps him down. Brilliant sumo. Shodai falls one behind Daieisho, Terunofuji hits double digits, and the sumo world goes crazy.
Asanoyama defeats Meisei – Asanoyama tried hard to get “that” grip set up, but had to settle for a trust down when his body would not comply. Good view of a viable switch to “plan b” from Asanoyama, a real weakness of his. Asanoyama improves to 10-4.
Well, against many expectations, we’ve made it to the final weekend of the Hatsu basho! The two-horse yusho race has been well-covered, as have the fates of the Ozeki trio, but what else is still at stake?
The san’yaku ranks
East Sekiwake Terunofuji and both Komusubi—Takayasu and Mitakeumi—are kachi-koshi, which means that they will at least keep their ranks, and Takayasu could move up. That’s because West Sekiwake Takanosho (7-6) would drop to Komusubi should he lose his two final bouts. Oh, and this time we’ll have an extra san’yaku slot for sure, as M1w Daieisho (11-2) has surely done enough this time to force at least a Komusubi slot, and another win or two could seem him vault all the way to Sekiwake. This probably leaves Takarafuji and Onosho at the top of the maegashira ranks no matter how they finish.
Makuuchi-Juryo exchanges
M17e Sadanoumi (5-8) will almost certainly be heading down even with two more wins. M13e Akua (4-9) can save himself by winning out, while M8e Tokushoryu (2-11) needs one more win and M12w Terutsuyoshi (5-8) could use one for insurance. Everyone else should be safely in the top division.
There’s not exactly a long list of Juryo contenders beating down the door, which is not surprising given the greatly depleted ranks of the second division. Leading the promotion race is the likely yusho winner, J8e Tsurugisho (11-2). The other contenders are J1w Daiamami (7-6), J6w Hidenoumi (9-4), and J3w Churanoumi (7-6).
Juryo-Makushita exchanges
J14e Ryuko (4-9) will be heading right back down, and J11w Oho (4-9) and J7w Nishikigi (2-11) could well be joining him unless they win out. Several others are still looking for a win to stay in the paid ranks. There are already 5 winning records in the Makushita promotion zone, and Daishoho could make it 6, so the exchange picture will be interesting and someone will miss out due to bad banzuke luck.
Makushita barnyard brawl!!!
Last but not least, we will have a nine-way playoff for the Makushita yusho! No, that’s not a misprint. As usual, two rikishi went into day 13 with 6-0 records, but because they hail from the same heya, they could not be matched head-to-head ad instead faced 5-1 opponents. Both lost, letting their opponents and 5 other lucky men into the playoff, which will feature everyone from Ms5w promotion candidate and recent sekitori Nishikifuji to the last man in the dvision, Ms60w Fukamiyama.
I believe the protocol here is they draw straws for a bye, the other 8 are paired up and we’re down to 5, another drawing of straws, 4 rikishi paired up, and we’re down to 3, who enter the usual tomoe-sen in which the first wrestler to win two consecutive bouts is the champion.
It’s the final weekend of the Hatsu basho. We have a 2 way race for the Emperor’s cup between Shodai and Daieisho. Shodai continues to find ways to win, in spite of a tougher schedule than Daieisho, who beat all of the Ozeki in week one. Should the two prevail in their 2 remaining matches, there will be a playoff following the final match of day 15, which is expected to be Asanoyama and Shodai. Yep, if will probably come down to that Asanoyama and Shodai match on day 15 to see if there will be a playoff. Great drama to end this tournament.
Hatsu Leaderboard
It’s Daieisho and Shodai – nobody else is likely to contend.
What We Are Watching Day 14
Yutakayama vs Kotonowaka – Yutakayama will try again to find win number 8 and kachi-koshi. He’s only met Kotonowaka once, during the November tournament, where Yutakayama lost. Kotonowaka is fighting very well, and we may see Yutakayama end the day 7-7, and become a candidate for a “Darwin match”.
Kotoeko vs Myogiryu – The loser of this match is make-koshi, the winner likely gets a Darwin match with a 7-7 score. Myogiryu holds a 5-1 career advantage, so I think its Kotoeko who make go make-koshi today.
Tokushoryu vs Sadanoumi – Both are make-koshi, both are facing a drop in rank, and I have to wonder if this match is to help determine if Tokushoryu drops to Juryo along with Sadanoumi. They have an 18 match history, with Sadanoumi holding a narrow 10-8 advantage.
Midorifuji vs Kiribayama – First ever match between these two, and I am eager to see if Kiribayama can overcome Midorifuji’s tendency to shut down his opponent’s sumo, and toss them rodeo style to the clay.
Hoshoryu vs Tobizaru – Hoshoryu come into day 15 with a respectable 8-5 kachi-koshi, and Tobizaru with a 6-7 score that is a formula for a make-koshi. Should he win today, it’s time for him to face his own Darwin match tomorrow. Tobizaru has a 4-1 career advantage over Hoshoryu.
Ryuden vs Akua – Both have a 4-9 record going into day 14, and this match is probably to help figure out if Akua is going to remain in the top division. Even if he does stay, I am not sure he’s every going to return to his pre-COVID level of power, as he may have suffered damage to any number of internal systems.
Tochinoshin vs Akiseyama – Tochinoshin is in no danger of demotion, but that 4-9 record for January is ugly news for the former Ozeki. Akiseyama managed to lock in his kachi-koshi on day 13, and he is safe at near the bottom of the banzuke. Tochinoshin has won their prior 2 matches.
Kotoshoho vs Terutsuyoshi – Both are make-koshi, and I have my doubts that Kotoshoho will ever find his second win for Hatsu. Terutsuyoshi is unquestionably injured, but I expect he will gamberize through the last 2 days and strive to finish as close to 7-8 as he can. Kotoshoho, at 1-12, is a lost cause.
Shimanoumi vs Onosho – A win today will be kachi-koshi for Shimanoumi, and to get there he will have to survive the initial big forward attack from Onosho. Onosho comes in to today kachi-koshi, and will be part of the joi-jin in March.
Takarafuji vs Ichinojo – As both rikishi already have winning records, this one is just for score, and I am really looking forward to it. Ichinojo has a 12-2 career advantage over Takarafuji, mostly because the defend and extend approach has limited use against Ichinojo. Doubly so if Ichinojo brings his “Boulder” style to his day 14 match, turning the tables on Takarafuji and forcing him to attack.
Hokutofuji vs Aoiyama – Both of these rikishi start the day with 5-8 records, but right now Hokutofuji is fighting much better. He also has a 10-2 career record over Aoiyama. So I expect a big V-Twin open from Aoiyama, and a fast Hokutofuji nodowa that gives control of the match to Ol’Stompy.
Tamawashi vs Daieisho – Tamawashi has a narrow chance of knocking Daieisho out of the lead. While he has beaten Daieisho before, Daieisho is red-hot right now, and Tamawashi is a shadow of his former brutal self. Maybe he can rally for this big match, but I would say it is unlikely.
Takayasu vs Kagayaki – Takayasu at 8-5 takes on Kagayaki at 5-8. I expect that Kagayaki is going to get tossed about like a nickel in a laundromat dryer, and finally hit the clay.
Endo vs Mitakeumi – Another 8-5 vs 5-8 match, this time we get to see if the 10-5 career advantage that Mitakeumi holds over Endo will carry forward into day 14. Given that Endo is struggling to fight well this January, the advantage belongs to Mitakeumi.
Okinoumi vs Takanosho – Winner gets kachi-koshi, loser gets nominated for a Darwin match. They have evenly split their 6 prior matches, and both have been fighting reasonably well. This has the potential to be a good match.
Terunofuji vs Shodai – Oh my. I recall day 4 of Aki, where Terunofuji was one of two rikishi who beat Shodai on his way to his first ever yusho, and sealing his Ozeki bid. A Terunofuji win today would likely block Shodai from the yusho, and would put Terunofuji into double-digit wins. Really looking forward to this match.
Asanoyama vs Meisei – Both are kachi-koshi, so I am looking for Asanoyama to work to stretch for his 10th win against Meisei. He holds a 3-1 career advantage, and is finally more or less “in form”. It’s the kind of score he will be expected to deliver every basho should he manage to become an Yokozuna.
