I’ve been thinking a bit more about what’s likely to happen in the race for the cup. There are 3 bouts tomorrow matching up the six remaining contenders:
Takanosho (10-3) vs. Mitakeumi (10-3)
Hakuho (11-2) vs. Aoiyama (11-2)
Asanoyama (10-3) vs. Kakuryu (11-2)
The first bout will leave us with one rikishi at 11-3, and one eliminated from the race, so the outcome here really doesn’t matter (except, obviously, to the rikishi themselves!).
The pivotal bouts are right at the top of the torikumi. Should Kakuryu and Hakuho prevail, and move to 12-2, their head-to-head matchup on the final day will be for the yusho, with everyone else eliminated from contention.
If Hakuho wins and Kakuryu loses, things get a lot more interesting: Hakuho would take the yusho with a win on senshuraku, but Kakuryu would be in a position to force a playoff, and Asanoyama, Aoiyama, and the winner of Takanosho vs. Mitakeumi would all have a shot at joining it.
A similar scenario holds if Aoiyama pulls of the giant (pun intended) upset, and Kakuryu loses: Aoiyama’s senshuraku opponent (presumably Asanoyama) could hand him a 3rd loss, providing an opening for the two Yokozuna, Asanoyama, and the winner of Takanosho vs. Mitakeumi to enter a playoff.
Finally, should Aoiyama and Kakuryu win, the scenarios would come down to senshuraku scheduling. If the schedulers really change things up and pair the two leaders, we get scenario one above: a winner-take-all bout for the cup. But given the expected pairing of the Yokozuna, Hakuho could force at least a three-way playoff with help from Aoiyama’s opponent, and the winner of Takanosho vs. Mitakeumi would have an opportunity to join it.
Please let me know if you spot any errors in my logic. We all have our rooting preferences, but I for one will be pulling for Asanoyama, as a win would not only bring him a big step closer to Ozeki promotion, but also guarantee to keep things interesting into Day 15.
The chase for the Emperor’s Cup got turned upside down for the second straight day. Takanosho (10-3), perhaps stung by the schedulers’ lack of faith in him, took care of business against his lower-ranked, yusho-leading opponent, handing Aoiyama (11-2) his second loss when the latter tried an ill-advised pull.
Hakuho (11-2) brought his A game in quickly driving out Asanoyama (10-3), and Kakuryu (11-2) patiently waited for a belt grip and then easily walked out Takakeisho (6-7).
As a result, we now have a three-way tie at the top, featuring the two Yokozuna and Aoiyama. They are trailed by Takanosho, Asanoyama, and Mitakeumi (10-3). Everyone else is mathematically out.
Hakuho is probably in the driver’s seat—tomorrow, he faces Aoiyama, whom he’s defeated in all 21 prior meetings, before the senshuraku clash with Kakuryu. Kakuryu takes on a motivated Asanoyama, with their head-to-head record standing at 1-1. And Mitakeumi and Takanosho are paired in an elimination bout.
The upper ranks
With 7 losses, Takakeisho now has no room for error—he must win out to avoid being kadoban in the next tournament. The Ozeki caught a big break in dodging a date with Hakuho (thanks, Aoiyama!), and may catch another if Asanoyama is paired with Aoiyama on senshuraku. Instead, he gets his long-time rival Onosho tomorrow (head-to-head: 2-2), and we’ll have to wait to see what the final-day schedule brings (Takanosho is not an option since they’re from the same heya, and he’s fought everyone else ranked higher, so … Takarafuji?).
Asanoyama remains at 10 wins, and may need to win his remaining pair of bouts to get the bump to sumo’s second-highest rank. Tomorrow’s bout against Kakuryu will be pivotal, as consecutive losses to the two Yokozuna won’t look good on the promotion resume.
Shodai (7-6) will remain in the named ranks, and can stay at Sekiwake with one more victory. His first try tomorrow will be against Takarafuji (head-to-head: 8-3). Endo (7-6) needs another win to continue as Komusubi; he fights Abi, who’s won 7 of their prior 9 meetings, tomorrow.
M3w Mitakeumi (10-3) is in the driver’s seat for the one currently open san’yaku slot, and only M1e Daieisho (7-6) has a mathematical shot at passing him in the promotion queue, which also contains (in current priority order) Okinoumi, Yutakayama, Onosho, Takanosho, and, some distance back, Takarafuji and Aoiyama.
Makuuchi/Juryo exchanges
Guaranteed demotion: Tsurugisho.
Need 2 wins + luck to stay in the top division: Tochiozan, Daiamami.
Win out to survive: Azumaryu.
Probably safe with one more win: Meisei.
Need one more win for guaranteed safety: Nishikigi, Kotonowaka.
Everyone else is safe.
Guaranteed promotion: Kotoshoho.
Probably in, but one more win wouldn’t hurt: Terunofuji, Kotoeko.
One win required: Wakatakakage, Kotoyuki.
Two wins required: Tobizaru.
Everyone else is most likely eliminated from the promotion race.
Thanks to some skill and a bit of luck, we have a 3 way tie going into the final weekend. In all likelihood, the yusho will come down to the final match on the final day of the tournament – a high stakes battle between the lone surviving Yokozuna. Although both of them are getting closer to the end of their careers on the dohyo, they have once again shown that nobody in the sport is even close to challenging them for dominance. Sure both of them have taken complete tournaments off, but there is not a soul right now that had the sumo to stand up to them in competition.
A hat tip to Takanosho, who took care of business today when Aoiyama made a huge mistake and fell into a bad habit, opening the door for Takanosho’s win, which Takanosho exploited with masterful effect. As a result, Big Dan picks up his second loss of Haru, and has allowed the Yokozuna to catch him, creating a 3 way tie for the lead. Barring some bizarre outcome of day 14, one of these 3 men will take home the hardware. But should calamity fall the leaders, former yusho winners Asanoyama and Mitakeumi are 1 loss behind, ready to engage in one last push for the cup. Exciting times to be a sumo fan!
Highlight Matches
Ikioi defeats Kotonowaka – Ikioi kept Kotonowaka in front of him, where his forward power could do the maximum good. Though youngster Kotonowaka put up a solid effort, Ikioi overpowered him and drove him out for the win, which was his 8th, giving him kahci-koshi in his home town basho. Sadly there was no crowd on hand to cheer him on. His kachi-koshi is all the more impressive given some of the physical problems that Ikioi has faced in the past year.
Shimanoumi defeats Ishiura – As I had expected, Ishiura is not quite at the same intensity that he had leading up to his 8th win. While this may disappoint some sumo fans, it’s really quite smart for Ishiura, who struggles quite a bit if he ranks much higher than this. Shimanoumi’s sumo was also spot on, reacting correctly to Ishiura’s hit and shift, and keeping the smaller more nimble rikishi from getting to the side. Shimanoumi improves to 7-6.
Meisei defeats Chiyotairyu – Chiyotairyu has now lost 3 in a row, and is on a perilous course toward a Darwin match on day 15. Chiyotairyu attempted a hit and shift as well, but his bulk means that the entire gambit unfolded in slow motion, and Meisei had time to go to combini, get a cup of Joe, maybe some onigiri, and come back in time to grab Chiyotairyu by the mawashi and toss him out. Meisei improves to 6-7, and is another fine candidate for a Darwin match.
Chiyomaru defeats Tochiozan – Watching Tochiozan is just misery now. Tochiozan was lethargic, slow, lacking power and fighting spirit. He’s hurt and going through the motions, but he’s there. At least Chiyomaru picked up his 7th win today, and has a reasonable chance at a kachi-koshi. He faces Terutsuyoshi on day 14.
Sadanoumi defeats Daiamami – Sadanoumi got his right hand inside position at the tachiai, and went to work. Daiamami advanced, but could not finish Sadanoumi at the edge. Sadanoumi rallied and rolled into an uwatenage. Picking up his 5 win and handing Daiamami his make-koshi.
Kotoshogiku defeats Tochinoshin – Probably should have been a matta, as Tochinoshin left the shikiri-sen much earlier than Kotoshogiku. But Tochinoshin could not really generate much forward pressure, and Kotoshogiku quickly had his inside grip, and was on to the hug-n-chug. Kotoshogiku advances to 7-6, and Tochinoshin now make-koshi.
Takanosho defeats Aoiyama – Major consequences from this match. I fully expected Aoiyama to power up the V-Twin thrusting attack from the start, but instead he went into an attempt at a pull. Takanosho must have known this was coming, as he pushed into the pull the moment it started, driving Aoiyama back, shoving him over the west side tawara. Aoiyama’s loss drops him from sole ownership of the yusho lead, and Takanosho gets his 10th win.
Kiribayama defeats Kaisei – Kiribayama executes a nice hit and shift, getting to Kaisei’s right side. From here Kaisei has almost no avenue to attack or defend. Kiribayama pins him down, and prevents Kaisei from turning to face his opponent, and Kiribayama drives him out. Nice strategy today, Kiribayama! He improves to 7-6.
Tamawashi defeats Azumaryu – Tamawashi gets the inside position at the tachiai, with his hands on Azumaryu’s neck and face, and gets to work thrusting against Azumaryu’s chest. Unable to generate much response, he is forced to give up ground to try and recover, but Tamawashi has him beat. Azumaryu picks up his 8th loss, and joins Tamawashi in a losing record for Haru.
Nishikigi defeats Myogiryu – Its kind of shocking to see Myogiryu with so little power right now. Nishikigi quickly got his favored arm bar hold, and it seems Myogiryu had no answer. A step back, and a roll to the left and Nishikigi had a win via sukuinage, handing Myogiryu his 10th loss.
Onosho defeats Terutsuyoshi – Terutsuyoshi attempts a hit and shift, which would normally be likely to end Onosho’s part of the match. But it seems he really has made great strides in his balance and foot work. Faster than Terutsuyoshi could react, Onosho pivots into Terutsuyoshi’s shift, getting to his side. At that point, Terutsuyoshi is more or less a pliable practice toy, and Onosho smacks and shoves him about with great effect before pushing him from the dohyo. Complete domination by Onosho today after a failed opening gambit by Terutsuyoshi. Onosho improves to 8-5, and picks up his kachi-koshi. He will be back in the joi-jin for the next basho, and frankly I think this is a very exciting development for sumo.
Mitakeumi defeats Takarafuji – This may have seemed to be a very pedestrian, low-energy match, but it is in fact littered with brilliant, small details. First the tachiai. Mitakeumi is so damn low for such a large bodied person, I am not sure how he stays upright, but he puts all of that force right on Takarafuji’s chest. Showing outstanding reflexes, Takarafuji responds with a right hand ottsuke, while Mitakeumi unfolds his arms at the elbows (blunting the ottsuke and continuing the force to Takarafuji’s chest. It all happens in less than half a second, but damn! But Takarafuji is a master of defense, and traps Mitakeumi low with his arms extended, the Original Tadpole has no leverage, and no path to attack. Takarafuji attempts something akin to a hikkake, and Mitakeumi uses that change of grip to break free and attack. A moment later, he has forced Takarafuji out, and picks up his 10th win. Very nice technique from both men today.
Shohozan defeats Tokushoryu – Glad to see Shohozan pick up a win, but now both he and Hatsu yusho winner Tokushoryu have 10 losses. It’s a grim basho for some of these beloved veterans.
Okinoumi defeats Yutakayama – This match was 100% Okinoumi, as Yutakayama got tangled up and shut down early. Both men exit the match with 7-6 records, and possibly headed for Darwin matches on day 15.
Enho defeats Daieisho – The first match ended with both rikishi flying out of the ring, and the judges ruled a torinaoshi (rematch). In the second bout, Enho brought his best break dancing moves to the clay, and kept Daieisho batting at the empty Osaka air. In one step, Daieisho lost his balance, and Enho helped him fall out of the ring. Daieisho falls to 7-6 and is also probably headed for a Darwin match.
Endo defeats Kagayaki – Kagayaki could not keep Endo away from his mawashi, and some great hard placement by Endo gave him a grip and put him in charge of the match. Once it was best to chest. It was Endo’s sumo that controlled the match, and Kagayaki could not really respond. If there is a spot for Kagayaki to improve, it would be his yotsu-zumo. His Oshi is fantastic, his foot work excellent, and he clearly gives it his all. Both are 7-6 at the end of this match, and again we seem to have a lot of rikishi headed for Darwin.
Ryuden defeats Hokutofuji – Both are in sad shape this March, and now Hokutofuji has double digit losses. To me this can only mean some kind of injury, and it’s quite disappointing to fans, as he seemed to have his sumo together in January.
Shodai defeats Abi – Shodai’s super power seems to be able to take a beating and stay in the match. I knew people like this in my younger days, they could take punch after punch (Marine Corps, you see..) but not give in or fall down. Eventually the attacker loses control or rhythm, and they are wide open, and maybe a bit tired. The counter-attack in these situations is frequently rapid, brutal and final. Abi picks up his 8th loss, while Shodai remains on a path toward kachi-koshi.
Kakuryu defeats Takakeisho – The only offense Takakeisho could generate was an early pull down attempt on the second step after the tachiai. It was quite useless, and opened himself up to the Yokozuna’s offense. Moments later, Kakuryu landed a right hand shallow grip on Takakeisho’s mawashi, and that was all he needed for the win. Takakeisho fans, just resign yourself to a make-koshi this tournament. Kakuryu picks up win #11 and remains in the yusho hunt.
Hakuho defeats Asanoyama – Hakuho wasted no time going on the attack, but seemed to have a moment of poor balance right at the moment he won. To my eye, that bandaged right foot gave way, and he fell forward. Thankfully for him, he converted most of that forward energy into shoving Asanoyama out of the ring. Hakuho improves to 11-2 and remains tied for the lead.
We go screaming into the final weekend of this tournament with the very real possibility of a double-digit Maegashira taking the cup on day 15. As has been said by sumo luminaries much more accomplished than myself, in this day—everyone is a contender. As lksumo has assured me many times, the schedule mostly goes by a well-understood formula, and that means that a lower-ranked rikishi can catch fire and run up a score high enough to take the cup, having never really been tested against the top-ranked men. This is also a function of the top-ranked men being too evenly matched to produce a score high enough to ensure that the cup remains in the named ranks.
As we set up for the last 3 days of this basho, it’s time to start trying to wonder who will suffer through the 7-7 matches on the final day. I call these “Darwin matches”, because only one survives with a winning record. Quite a few rikishi are on the perilous path that leads to a Darwin battle, so let’s see who can evade that outcome.
Haru Leaderboard
Aoiyama has sole possession of the lead in the race for the cup. He faces Takanosho on day 13.
Kotonowaka vs Ikioi – The winner here picks up kachi-koshi today. Both have fought well, and both deserve it. I think whoever loses today is possibly going to find themselves in a Darwin match on day 15. Please, don’t let it be you, Ikioi.
Ishiura vs Shimanoumi – I am sure that Ishiura is quite happy to be going into the final weekend with 8 wins locked up. The question is, at Maegashira 12, does he really want to push for a big boost up the banzuke? He seems to do well around this rank, and running up the score enough to get him at the bottom of the joi-jin might not be a wise idea. Luckily, Shimanoumi has never lost to Ishiura, so maybe he can end up in a Darwin match on day 15.
Chiyotairyu vs Meisei – Chiyotairyu needs just one more win to get his 8. He has faded into week 2, losing 4 of his last 5. He has only fought Meisei once before, and he took the match. Good luck, Chiyotairyu!
Chiyomaru vs Tochiozan – Chiyomaru is very much on the Darwin path, but he has a chance to add a white start to his tally when he faces the miserable wreckage of Tochiozan. Normally, Tochiozan gives Chiyomaru the business (6-1), but he’s too beat up and injured now to pose much of a threat.
Sadanoumi vs Daiamami – Sadanoumi can dispense some sumo doom today if he can hand Daiamami his 8th loss and a make-koshi for Haru. He won their only prior match, and still seems to have some fighting spirit left.
Kotoshogiku vs Tochinoshin – Battle of the battered and broken former Ozeki. It’s like if your two favorite stuffed animals as a child got mangled in a horrific laundry accident, but hung around your bedroom anyhow because you were too sentimental to toss them out. A Tochinoshin loss today is make-koshi for him.
Takanosho vs Aoiyama – It’s a lot of weight to put on Takanosho—shutting down the yusho juggernaut that is Aoiyama. But that’s exactly who has gotten the nod to try his mettle on day 13. He and Aoiyama have a 3 match history that favors Takanosho 2-1. But right now, Big Dan’s V-Twin seems to be set to take him far, and I am not sure who might stop him from lifting the cup on Sunday with those enormous, pale, meaty arms.
Kaisei vs Kiribayama – The last time that Kaisei beat Kiribayama was in the multi-way playoff for the Juryo yusho during November of 2019. Ah, the good old days, when there was no plague loose in the world, and people got to go to the venue to watch sumo. But it may come down to Kaisei having his 8, and not wanting to run up the score, or risk injury. A win today would keep Kiribayama on track for a Darwin match on Sunday.
Azumaryu vs Tamawashi – Can Tamawashi muster enough genki energy to hand fellow Mongolian Azumaryu his make-koshi? Maybe…but an Azumaryu win today sets him on the path for inclusion in the round of Darwin matches we eagerly await on Sunday.
Myogiryu vs Nishikigi – These two miserable sots just need to hug it out. Luckily, Nishikigi’s sumo seems tailor-made for such a format, even if Myogiryu may find it distasteful. Both are already make-koshi, both need to just get past this basho, and for Nishikigi, he’s likely once again captain or at least boatswain of the Juryo barge of the dammed.
Terutsuyoshi vs Onosho – After a long and withering stretch of depressing matches, we get this lovely gem. One of these fine rikishi will exit the dohyo with a freshly minted kachi-koshi, and both of them deserve it. The loser is probably headed for Darwin with the rest of the condemned souls that are slated for the day 15 bloodletting. I expect a lot of intense action that will favor Terutsuyoshi early, and Onosho the longer it goes.
Takarafuji vs Mitakeumi – Both are kachi-koshi, but frankly, I really want to see Mitakeumi run up the score. At least 1 san’yaku slot will be open, and I would love to see the original tadpole return to the named ranks, and perhaps restart a bid to ascend to Ozeki this year.
Shohozan vs Tokushoryu – Another dry husk of a match between two grizzled veterans sporting deep losing records before the final weekend. Sure, Shohozan has a 6-3 career lead, but this one is just more misery.
Okinoumi vs Yutakayama – Yutakayama has never beaten Okinoumi in 3 attempts, and a win today would be yet another marker that the early leader of the Freshman cohort is back in business. He shares Maegashira 3 with Mitakeumi, so if there ends up being only 1 San’yaku slot, he may have to settle for a modest bump up the Maegashira ranks.
Daieisho vs Enho – Daieisho need just 1 more win to get his 8th, and Enho is looking hurt and dispirited now. Clearly he is headed back down the banzuke to calmer waters, but how far will he drop? They have split their prior 2, and with the abundance of rikishi now shutting down Enho’s pixie magic, there is ample footage of Enho losses for Daieisho to review.
Kagayaki vs Endo – Both of these mainstays are dangerously close to the Darwin path, with Endo serving as vanguard of the Darwin sacrifices marching toward day 15. They share a 5-5 career record, so this one is going to come down to Endo getting his frontal grip at the tachiai, and Kagayaki’s sometimes impressive footwork.
Hokutofuji vs Ryuden – Another match of disappointment: both of them are solid fighters, both are make-koshi, and both just need to finish the tournament without additional injuries. I am sure Hokutofuji will show up with more fighting spirit (he always does), but it’s a mystery if it will do him any good.
Abi vs Shodai – In spite of beating Hakuho on day 12, Shodai has to pick up 2 more wins for a kachi-koshi at his highest-ever rank. More likely, he too is on the Darwin path, and we may see him face off on day 15 in a 7-7 battle to survive. A loss today would be make-koshi for Abi, and a further slide down the banzuke.
Takakeisho vs Kakuryu – Takakeisho starts his tour through hell. Needing 2 wins to escape kadoban, he comes up against Yokozuna Kakuryu, who honestly is fighting better than Hakuho right now. He has beaten the Yokozuna once in their 4 career matches, but Takakeisho’s injuries may mean that Kakuryu makes fast work of the Grand Tadpole today.
Hakuho vs Asanoyama – I can’t even tell you how eager I am for this match. To make the score for Ozeki promotion, Asanoyama needs to beat a Yokozuna. Given the baloney sumo from Hakuho on day 12, I expect him to be brash, hasty and probably careless on day 13. That gives Asanoyama a sliver of an opening. We know Hakuho loves to fight high skill yotsu-zumo rikishi, and Asanoyama is that in spades. But if he gives Asanoyama his chance, he may find himself surprised. Good luck, Asanoyama!
