I like that day 9 gave us some showcase sumo, with some rikishi getting come from behind or “against the odds” wins, and some of our leaders showing us their best technique. We still have 3 rikishi tied for the lead in the yusho race, with Nishikigi having the easier path to the cup given he already beat the top men in week 1. But what’s this? You say Nishikigi has yet to fight Hokutofuji? (Evil super villain laughter intensifies)

Highlight Matches

Bushozan defeats Takarafuji – Every day can be a fresh day in sumo. I take a look at Bushozan coming in with 1-7 today, staring kachi-koshi and a return to Juryo down. We all know that Takarafuji is going to disrupt, block and defect every attack Bushozan can try to land, but Bushozan stays focused, stays center mass, and just steps forward each and every time. Takarafuji recognizes he’s giving ground, and tries for a slap down, only to find Bushozan lunging forward to drive him into the front row. Much respect to Bushozan-seki, nicely done. He advances to 2-7.

Daishoho defeats Hakuoho – Not too sure about Hakuoho’s side step at the tachiai, I think it robbed him of a lot of offensive potential, and let Daishoho dictate the form of the match. Hakuoho does have both hands inside, but that only gives Daishoho the position to clamp his arms down and reduce Hakuoho to practice ballast for the resulting oshidashi. Hard lessons to learn for a future super star, but learn them he must. Daishoho improves to 4-5.

Endo defeats Gonoyama – Dear lord, when I mentioned before the basho that Gonoyama is soft of the Mac mini to Goeido’s iMac, I did not think I would imply that they would break down and malfunction in similar ways. But here we are, Gonoyama now has 4 straight losses after a solid 5-0 start. It’s freaking Goeido II I tell you, at least for this July. That means that the only way to properly reboot him is to grab him by the crotch and fling him to the clay with monster truck force. How many of you knew that’s what Harumafuji was doing? He saved us all from obliteration, or worse. Endo now 7-2.

Aoiyama defeats Chiyoshoma – In the top division, all it takes is a single minor mistake and the whole match can go to your opponent. Note how Chiyoshoma opens strong and is moving Aoiyama back, until he attempts to make a slight turn, which Aoiyama seems to anticipate. Boosting Chiyoshoma turn, Aoiyama gets him turned around and almost runs him out from behind, only to have Chiyoshoma attempt to recover, netting the winning move as oshidashi. Aoiyama really needed that win, he is now 3-6.

Ryuden defeats Tsurugisho – Tsurugisho opened strong, but could not stand up to Ryuden’s counter attack. It’s tough to watch someone with so many excellent sumo tools available to him, like Tsurugisho, struggle with a straightforward match, and be visibly in pain. Tough summer for him, Ryuden now 5-4.

Shonannoumi defeats Kotoeko – Kotoeko’s first attempt at a belt grab went horribly wrong, as Shonannoumi times a slam to the back to intersect his reach inside. Kotoeko is propelled forward, out of control, and out of the ring. Excellent reactive skill display from Shonannoumi, he is now 6-3.

Myogiryu defeats Kotoshoho – I am not sure what kind of plan Kotoshoho had for this match, but it looked like “Catch Myogiryu at the tachiai and hold him”. Fine, but Myogiryu’s plan was “bundle him up and toss him to the clay”, which played well with Kotoshoho’s crummy tachiai. Myogiryu now 5-4.

Kinbozan defeats Tamawashi – There goes my dreams of a Tamawashi yusho. Unless most of the leader board catches rapid onset explosive leprosy, or something like that. Sure Tamawashi man-handled Kinbozan and thrust him to the dirt, but his heel left a tell tale mark on the janome, and the gyoji’s gumbai was reversed, giving Kinbozan the win, improving his score to 5-4.

Sadanoumi defeats Takayasu – Big time fade from Takayasu now, this is the first time that Sadanoumi has ever won against him, so I was quite surprised. With the number of grave injuries that Takayasu has sustained in his career, it could be any one of them acting up and giving him fits. The opening parts of the match, Takayasu looks fine and normal. But once Sadanoumi consolidates a frontal left hand grip, Takayasu goes soft and consents to step out. Sadanoumi staves off make-koshi to improve to 2-7.

Hokutofuji defeats Oho – Hokutofuji is really in rare and potent form. Oho hardly knew what to do with him in the few brief moments that match lasted. Hokutofuji picks up his 8th win, is kachi-koshi for Nagoya and maintains his share of the lead.

Takanosho defeats Hokuseiho – Looks like the knowledge of how to best Hokuseiho is spreading from rikishi to rikishi now, get him turned around and you can shove him out from the rear. Kind of like how they move stuck freight trains. I blame Andy. The key moment that they are all exploiting is that Hokuseiho likes to do that over the body right hand reach with a half turn to rob his opponent of any defensive posture. At that moment, just help him keep rotating and get behind him. Done and done. Both end the day 4-5.

Onosho defeats Nishikifuji – Nishikifuji did not make use of his superior lateral mobility, and allowed Onosho to bracket him, then dial up the forward power. I did see Nishikifuji try to dodge for just a moment, but Onosho kept at least one hand on Nishikifuji at all times. Well played. Both end the day at 4-5.

Shodai defeats Midorifuji – A thousand thanks to the Great Sumo Cat of the Kokugikan, who has granted my wish for just one match where Shodai uses some of his old, crazy “What the hell was that” cartoon sumo. He should have been down or out at least 3 times, but was able to stay in, keep his feet and battle back. A glimpse of what once was, and what should have always been. Shodai picks up a much needed win and is now 3-6.

Nishikigi defeats Mitakeumi – Man, I just want to send Mitakeumi a basket of flowers, or maybe a case of highland single malt. The man is rightfully down, but mounts the dohyo each day anyhow. Today he brought a lot of power to this match, and I would like to think he wanted to take Nishikigi down a notch. But whatever kami has a hold of Nishikigi was only playing with Mitakeumi, and there was no way that he was going to lose. After Mitakeumi took control of the match and pushed Nishikigi around at will, Nishikigi rallied and drove Mitakeumi from the ring. Damn potent sumo! Mitakeumi takes his 8th loss and is make-koshi at 1-8, Nishikigi racks his 8th win, and is kachi-koshi for July at 8-1, maintaining his share of the lead.

Tobizaru defeats Kotonowaka – Against most opponents, Kotonowaka would have won this about 3 different ways. But each time he thought he had consolidated his hold or his stance enough to execute a finishing combo, Tobizaru showed he was still free to move and disrupted Kotonowaka’s attack. Each time, Kotonowaka lost ground, until Tobizaru had him at the edge, where a hearty shove took care of the task. Kotonowaka could have employed endurance and patience, worn him down and boxed him up properly, but chose not to. Both end the day 5-4.

Daieisho defeats Abi – The case for Daieisho’s Ozeki bid takes a big step forward with his win over fellow super-thruster Abi. Abi opened strong, probably too strong. He found himself too close to Daieisho, and pivoted to move away. Of course you don’t show your side or your back to Daieisho, or you get the big shove when you can’t absorb it. I think they could have called it okuridashi, but oshidashi was close enough. Daieisho now 7-2.

Hoshoryu defeats Hiradoumi – Hiradoumi did not fight this match like a man on the road to make-koshi. He came in with huge energy and tight moves. For a fair amount of the match, Hiradoumi seemed to be the one taking the initiative, he had Hoshoryu working to defend. But Hiradoumi fell prey to that Mongolian leg lift (kakenage) that can and does get used by the best. Granted, I was quite impressed that Hiradoumi almost shut it down, but Hoshoryu was not going to be denied. Hoshoryu now 8-1, kachi-koshi for Nagoya, and remains in the leader group.

Wakamotoharu defeats Ura – Quite an impressive performance from Wakamotoharu. Unable to finesse Ura, due to Ura being so good at disrupting and tearing down an opponents combos, Wakamotoharu finally just brutes him up and over onto the clay. Wakamotoharu now 7-2.

Kirishima defeats Meisei – Shin-Ozeki Kirishima finally finds his 3rd win. He did not have a strong showing, allowing Meisei to set the terms and form of the match. In fact, Meisei found it not too tough to move Kirishima around, and but for a slippiotoshi, might have prevailed today. But it was a most welcome win for Kirishima, and is now 3-6.

With nakabi behind us, it’s on to week 2 of the Nagoya tournament. This is where stamina and endurance can make the difference between winning and losing. In the heat of Dolphin’s Arena, the daily matches will get tougher, and the stakes will get higher as we progress. Sumo is, after all, a zero sum game. There are a static number of wins available across the 15 day tournament, and every win that goes to someone with a 10-5 final score, came from someone else. With the inter-san’yaku battles starting soon, we will probably see the Ozeki hopefuls be whittled down by this mathematical reality. Good luck to them all, I wonder if any of them will make it to 33.

Nagoya Leaderboard

My compliments to Nishikigi who is hanging in with the leaders, given what he was able to do in week 1, I would say he has the easiest path to the cup right now. Given that none of the current leaders have prior week 2 yusho experience, I expect all of them to falter or run out of drive some time in the next few days. I still like Tamawashi’s chances

Leadesr: Hoshoryu, Nishikigi, Hokutofuji
Chasesr: Daieisho, Wakamotoharu, Tamawashi, Takarafuji, Endo, Hakuoho
Hunt Group: Kotonowaka, Takayasu, Chiyoshoma, Gonoyama, Shonannoumi

7 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 9

Bushozan (1-7) vs Takarafuji (6-2) – There are a series of matches today where someone on a clear kachi-koshi path is up against someone who is one or two losses away from make-koshi. This goes back to the zero sum nature of sumo. I can see the scheduling committee wanting to tidy things up early, and get some of these guys sorted into losing and winning records, in order to help shape the yusho race in act 3. This should be a Takarafuji win today, and make-koshi for Bushozan.

Daishoho (3-5) vs Hakuoho (6-2) – A first ever match up between these two, I expect Hakuoho to take the win today, and move a step closer to kachi-koshi. With just 4 wins out of the final 7, he would hit double digits and possibly a special prize. Can I just admit I love watching this guy fight? He’s so very good at sumo right now, and I am giddy to think what he is going to turn into over the next few years as long as he can avoid serious injury.

Gonoyama (5-3) vs Endo (6-2) – Another first time match, but this fight is no cream puff for Endo, who needs just 2 more wins to gain some breathing room between himself and the path to Juryo. Gonoyama has now lost 3 in a row, and we may have him ending up in the “Darwin” crew on the final day if he can’t re-connect with his sumo.

Chiyoshoma (5-3) vs Aoiyama (2-6) – Speaking of the route to Juryo, the man who I think may be the captain of the Juryo barge this time is none other than “Big Dan” Aoiyama. He seems to be bereft of his normal sumo tools, and struggles every day to simply put up a decent fight. At his age and level of chronic injury, this might be the sunset ride for him. Chiyoshoma holds a 10-7 career lead over Aoiyama, having won 3 of the last 4.

Ryuden (4-4) vs Tsurugisho (2-6) – I doubt we are going to see Tsurugisho make it to 8 wins, but given his Maegashira 11 rank, I don’t see him as a candidate for Juryo in September. Ryuden at 4-4 is on a path the a 7-7 “Darwin” score at the start of day 15, unless he can find some more power over the next 3-4 days. Given Ryuden’s chronic hip pain and motion problems, he has his work cut out for him. He holds a 9-2 career lead over Tsurugisho.

Kotoeko (4-4) vs Shonannoumi (5-3) – I really want to see Kotoeko rally this week. He has been a “Darwin” nominee far too many times in the last year, and I would rather he just secure his 8th win sometime before day 14. He has a first ever match against debutant Shonannoumi, who has proven over the past week that he is worthy of his top division rank.

Kotoshoho (3-5) vs Myogiryu (4-4) – Kotoshoho is just on the outside edge of the funnel at the moment, meaning a win today would keep him in the middle cluster of rikishi headed toward 7-7, and a loss would put him on the make-koshi path. He has only won once against Myogiryu in 5 attempts, so the odds are not in his favor to prevail today.

Kinbozan (4-4) vs Tamawashi (6-2) – Kinbozan won their only prior fight, which was day 6 of Natsu 2023. Tamawashi needs to prevail today to keep his position one win behind the leader group, which I think would amuse everyone quite a bit.

Takayasu (5-3) vs Sadanoumi (1-7) – Takayasu has never lost to Sadanoumi in 8 tries. I know Takayasu has lost 3 in a row now, and I am not sure what happened to his sumo. Maybe this is a chance for him to bounce back. A loss today for Sadanoumi would be his 8th, and make-koshi for him.

Hokutofuji (7-1) vs Oho (3-5) – First of the leader group to see action, Hokutofuji has his 3rd career match against Oho, having won both of the prior two fights. Both of them ended by yorikiri, so I expect Oho to grapple early, Hokutofuji to land a nodowa, and his lower body to keep him balanced and attacking no matter what.

Hokuseiho (4-4) vs Takanosho (3-5) – Another match of rikishi on the middle path toward a 7-7 score to start the final day. Their only prior match was day 7 in Osaka, where Takanosho won by oshidashi. Since then, I think Hokuseiho has gained confidence and balance, and Takanosho may find himself gripped by the enormous right arm, and hurled out of the ring. Both could really use the win.

Nishikifuji (4-4) vs Onosho (3-5) – Yet another match of rikishi on the middle path, this time we have a 2-0 career record favoring Onosho over Nishikifuji. Onosho has shown persistent bad balance this tournament, and I am certain we will see Nishikifuji exploit Onosho’s aggressive forward lean as much as possible today.

Shodai (2-6) vs Midorifuji (2-6) – Both are on the make-koshi path, both are 2-6, and both are fighting poorly. I would be delighted for any form of the old Shodai, even the one that used “cartoon physics” to randomly beat opponents 3 or 4 years ago. It’s terrible watching the guy just sort of blob about the ring, not really putting up much of a contest.

Nishikigi (7-1) vs Mitakeumi (1-7) – The next member of the leader group to see action, this fight comes down to the question of if Mitakeumi is in a fighting mood today. He could seriously play spoiler to the grandest of Nishikigi’s “Magical Mystery Tour” scenarios, if he can muster his mojo in spite of his injuries and distractions in his personal life. He holds a 6-2 career lead against Niskikgi.

Kotonowaka (5-3) vs Tobizaru (4-4) – These two are on the middle path as well, with Tobizaru fighting well but not really winning matches for yet another tournament. I wonder if that is training? Stamina? Injury? They have 10 career matches, with Kotonowaka winning 6 of them, and I think that he has the stronger case today.

Abi (4-4) vs Daieisho (6-2) – Daieisho needs 4 wins over the final 7 days to hit double digits, and slightly more than that for his Ozeki target. Today is a good challenge for him, in that Abi will respond to Daieisho’s huge forward power with huge forward power of his own. They have a near even 8-9 career record, and I am eager to see if Abi can put a dent in Daieisho’s hopes for a promotion.

Hoshoryu (7-1) vs Hiradoumi (3-5) – In contrast, this one looks like an outright creampuff gimmie for Hoshoryu. Hiradoumi has not been fighting well, and has never beaten Hoshoryu. A win today for H would be kachi-koshi, and another step forward toward his bid to be promoted to Ozeki.

Ura (4-4) vs Wakamotoharu (6-2) – For the 4th time in the past 6 tournaments, Ura is on the path to be 7-7 on the final day. Maybe he enjoys the thrill of the Darwin matches, I know I do. He has only won once in the 5 previous matches against Ozeki hopeful Wakamotoharu, so clearly advantage to the Onami brother today. With luck we will get to see some Ura magic to spice up the tail end of day nine – I hope.

Meisei (4-4) vs Kirishima (2-4-2) – It really looks like Kirishima is still at least partially injured. He is not fighting at his normal intensity, and he is 2 losses away from kadoban – which would have been his outcome if he had just stayed kyujo. But I think that if he can get his sumo together, he has an important role to play soon – giving the Ozeki hopefuls a tough match to see if they can dominate in the face of their toughest opponents. Meisei holds a surprising 6-4 career lead.

Introductory news of day 8 is that former Ozeki Asanoyama has withdrawn from competition citing problems with his left bicep. In his day 7 match against Hoshoryu, it seems Asanoyama injured that muscle and its associated tissue, and will wisely decide not to pull a Kisenosato by letting it recover. This will set back Asanoyama’s hopes of climbing the ranks by at least 4 months.

The leader group has narrowed to three: Hoshoryu, Nishikigi and Hokutofuji. None of them have prior yusho experience, and in my mind this is going to be a total toss up. There are 6 rikishi one win behind, and week 2 is going to be a rolling battle to sort that group out.

I would be remiss if I did not revisit a the subject of tate-gyoji Shikimori Inosuke. It’s been some time since he was declared a “hazard to the proper conduct of honbasho”, but that session in the middle of the final match today even had the shimpan a bit unhappy. Maybe it’s time for him to hang up the gumbai?

Highlight Matches

Ryuden defeats Ichiyamamoto – Ichiyamamoto still does not have his first win after Ryuden sets up a solid hold at the tachiai and simply muscles him back and out. I am sure Ichiyamamoto came back from kyujo to try and find any win he can, but that was a tough way to return, he is now 0-8 while Ryuden improves to 4-4.

Daishoho defeats Aoiyama – I am starting to accept that Aoiyama is just too banged up to execute “his brand of sumo” right now. He willingly goes chest to chest with Daishoho, with poor results. Whatever injuries Aoiyama is trying to work through have limited his mobility and his forward power. Daishoho now 3-5, Aoiyama possibly on the barge to Juryo for September.

Hakuoho defeats Shonannoumi – Shonannoumi gets a right hand inside at the tachiai, and looks to have a strong early position. But watch what Hakuoho does to counter that advantage – that’s some of the more clever, coordinated and energetic reactive sumo I have seen in a while. Shonannoumi finds he can’t maintain his grip, or his stance, as Hakuoho continues to disrupt him, shoving Shonannoumi out as he struggles to set his feet. Brilliant defensive work, Hakuoho now 6-2.

Endo defeats Kotoshoho – Kotoshoho looked to be to keep his mawashi far enough back from Endo that he could not set up a grip. This worked, but left Kotoshoho leaning too far forward, and Endo brought him down with a tottari, advancing to 6-2.

Takarafuji defeats Kotoeko – Takarafuji did a great job of capturing Kotoeko’s upper body while he was pushing Takarafuji back to set up a yorikiri. But at the bales Takarafuji was able to move to the side and twist back and down to drop Kotoeko for the win. Takarafuji now 6-2.

Tsurugisho defeats Bushozan – Tsurugisho’s does not see to have a lot of forward power this July, and today he quickly moved from thrusting attack at the tachiai to pulling Bushozan down. Fast work and Tsurugisho is now 2-6.

Chiyoshoma defeats Kinbozan – I was surprised that Kinbozan allowed Chiyoshoma to change his grip at the third step. This set up the throw that put Kinbozan on the clay and handed him his 4th loss. Chiyoshoma now 5-3 with some nice moves today.

Myogiryu defeats Gonoyama – Gonoyama has now lost three in a row, and I wonder if it’s injury, nerves or a bug in his real time sumo operating system. I like how Myogiryu focused center-mass immediately at the tachiai, breaking Gonoyama’s stance. Good move at the bales by Gonoyama to try and stop the force out, but the slap down was too late, Myogiryu took the match and advances to 4-4.

Hokutofuji defeats Takayasu – When Hokutofuji is dialed into his sumo, his lower body is akin to the 1980s and 1990s Chicago Bears. No matter what crummy stuff might be happening offensively (Hokutofuji’s upper body), the defense (lower body) may just carry the day. Thought the hazu (armpit) grip that Hokutofuji sets up as he starts to push Takayasu back is damn near perfect. Hokutofuji maintains his portion of the lead at 7-1.

Takanosho defeats Tamawashi – Tamawashi attempted an angled strike at the tachiai, but rather than put Takanosho off balance, it left Tamawashi on the wrong foot. Takanosho countered with expert hand placement center mass and quickly moved to push Tamawashi out by oshidashi, dropping Tamawashi out of the leader group. Takanosho now 3-5.

Hokuseiho defeats Sadanoumi – Sadanoumi worked hard to keep an ottsuke in place to block Hokuseiho’s right hand. It only worked for a short time, and then Sadanoumi found he had no tools left to counter the shitatenage. 4th win for Hokuseiho at 4-4.

Hiradoumi defeats Nishikifuji – Both men got into an energetic battle for grip which saw them rapidly change foot placement to break the other’s grip. But Nishikifuji lost track of his spot in the ring, and hopped out as he was moving to pull Hiradoumi forward. Hiradoumi now 3-5.

Oho defeats Onosho – Oho took full advantage of Onosho’s tendency toward having his weight too far forward, timing a slap on the back and step to the left to send Onosho out of the ring and into the front row, much to that lady in blue’s delight. Both end the day 3-5.

Meisei defeats Mitakeumi – Meisei delivered a nice combo attack at the tachiai that raised Mitakeumi’s center of gravity, allowing Meisei to push from underneath. Great sumo fundamentals to set up the yorikiri against a bigger opponent. Meisei now 4-4.

Nishikigi defeats Tobizaru – Nishikigi’s stand-up tachiai was a risky move, but I think given his poor eyesight and the chances that Tobizaru would try a lateral combo at the open, it was the safe bet. Tobizaru went directly into Nishikigi’s grip, which Nishikigi converted to a combo arm-bar and forearm to Tobizaru’s throat. An oshidashi finished him, and Nishikigi stays with the leader group at 7-1.

Abi defeats Shodai – Straight Abi-zumo win. Sadly Shodai had no counter moves today, and simply just rode the tsuki express to the Ryogoku station. Abi now 4-4.

Hoshoryu defeats Ura – Quite the rational strategy from Hoshoryu. Ura is going to come in super low, why not just see if you can help him travel the rest of the distance to the clay. It took two tries to get the hatakikomi, but it worked. Hoshoryu improves to 7-1 and stays in the leader group.

Wakamotoharu defeats Kotonowaka – Kotonowaka’s surge from the tachiai was almost enough to carry the match. But once Wakamotoharu’s heels touched straw, he rallied. The counter attack was enough to break Kotonowaka’s stance, which he was never able to recover. A quick walk to the east side bales, and it was yorikiri time. Wakamotoharu now 6-2.

Midorifuji defeats Kirishima – Kirishima was able to capture Midorifuji by the second step, and the two battled it out chest to chest. Some excellent move and counter move from both of them, and it turned into an endurance battle. As they leaned into each other, to my surprise, Inosuke ordered them to halt. I guess he wanted to cinch up Kirishima’s mawashi? Looked ok to me. Nah? not right? Get a yobidashi in to help too. Hell, I am sure there is at least someone from the fashion industry in the crowd, why not call them down too? Inosuke seems to get a bit lost, time to talk to the shimpan too! After all that haberdashery, the fight resumes to see Midorifuji finally put that left hand frontal grip to work, tossing Kirishima down and out of the ring. Weird match, but sure… Midorifuji 2-6. The crowd in Nagoya, amped up at the thoughts of a wardrobe malfunction that almost was, throws cushions in celebration.

Welcome to Nakabi! The middle day of a 15 day sumo tournament. Those of you wonderful readers who have never had the chance to enjoy a summer in Japan, let me share with you that it has its own special flavor of hot. Yes, Texas is like satan’s front porch, Florida is a sauna and Tucson will melt your shoes, but the combination of relentless high UV sun, the crushing humidity, and the general lack of industrial cooling in the country make for a very moist and drippy season. You can see it among the fans watching sumo at Nagoya’s Dolphins Arena. Some of them start fanning themselves the moment they sit down, some seem to instantly regret not finding some way to politely wear less clothing. The Arena is famous for having weak cooling systems in place, and you can see that the heat is taking a toll on the athletes as well.

With the start of Nakabi, it’s time for us to look at the race for the Emperor’s Cup.

Nagoya Leaderboard

It’s quite early in the yusho race, and I expect we are going to see the scheduling committee whittle this group down quite a bit in the final days of act 2. Looking at the 1 loss group, the only rikishi with prior yusho experience is none other than Tamawashi. A second third yusho coming at age 38 would be quite the accomplishment for one of the great stalwarts of the sport for the last two decades.

Leaders: Hoshoryu, Nishikigi, Tamawashi, Hokutofuji
Chasers: Daieisho, Wakamotoharu, Kotonowaka, Takayasu, Gonoyama, Shonannoumi, Takarafuji, Endo, Hakuoho

8 Matches Remain

What We Are Watching Day 8

Ryuden (3-4) vs Ichiyamamoto (0-5-2) – Ichiyamamoto is our Juryo visitor today. Those of you hoping he might stage a quick return to the top division will not be pleased to know he has not won a single match. He went kyujo on day 5, and is back to start day 8. Of course they put him in the top division match for the day and let him fight Ryuden. Oof.

Daishoho (2-5) vs Aoiyama (2-5) – Matching 2-5 records for these two rikishi on the make-koshi trail. I am pretty sure I like Aoiyama’s chances today in this match, but with his primary and secondary attack modes not nearly as potent as they should be, we can expect him to lose matches he’s favored in. I expect Aoiyama to try a push down / thrust down by the third or fourth step.

Hakuoho (5-2) vs Shonannoumi (5-2) – We can be pretty sure that short of an injury, both of these guys are going to be kachi-koshi. The fun now is to see if they can both make it to double digits. Clearly Hakuoho has the broad sumo recognition, but Shonannoumi has been fighting quite well, even looking good in his losses to Endo and Chiyoshoma. I think this match could be a fun one.

Endo (5-2) vs Kotoshoho (3-4) – I am expecting to see Endo continue his run toward kachi-koshi, with him also having a strong chance of hitting double digits and putting himself far enough up the banzuke for September that consideration of him ending up in Juryo for the first time in this decade are put to rest. Kotoshoho can hold his own with Endo, but Endo needs to escape from the bottom of the banzuke.

Kotoeko (4-3) vs Takarafuji (5-2) – An excellent match for these two. Neither one of them are fighting at their optimum, but I give an advantage to Takarafuji for today. Not only does he hold a 6-3 career lead, he shares Endo’s motivation to move away from the bottom of the banzuke and gain some distance from Juryo. Each have won one so far this year.

Bushozan (1-6) vs Tsurugisho (1-6) – Another battle of the soon to be make-koshi rikishi. Tsurugisho has a 4-2 career lead, but right now it’s pretty certain that both of these men are hurt in some way that is limiting their sumo. Since both were ranking in Juryo early this decade, their record is a more even 2-2, and I think we will see an even, if painful, fight today. I just hope nobody compounds their injuries.

Kinbozan (4-3) vs Chiyoshoma (4-3) – Both of these rikishi are in the middle lane of any kind of funnel that may or may not be underway. They have only fought once before, in Osaka this year, where Kinbozan dispatched Chiyoshoma with a tsuridashi. I know some of you may groan, but what would be nicer than a nice henka today?

Gonoyama (5-2) vs Myogiryu (3-4) – First ever match, and I am looking for Gonoyama to bounce back from his 2 consecutive losses. No, I don’t mean activating some secret “Bouncy Castle” mode in his GoeiDOS operating system… some people. If Gonoyama can avoid the slap down / pull down attempts which seem to be Myogiryu’s go-to combo this July, he should be able to thrust him out.

Takayasu (5-2) vs Hokutofuji (6-1) – For longtime sumo fans, this one is a classic. These two have 20 matches on the clay, with Takayasu having a distinct 13-7 advantage. Since Nagoya of 2021, it’s been 5 straight wins for Takayasu, so we may see him continue that streak again. That is unless Hokutofuji can disrupt the former Ozeki’s balance with his uncanny defensive moves.

Takanosho (2-5) vs Tamawashi (6-1) – In spite of Takanosho’s 6-2 career advantage, I don’t see this match going his way today. Tamawashi is part of the team at 1 loss that share the lead in the yusho race, and he’s fighting some of his best sumo since his second yusho last September. A third yusho this month is certainly not out of the question.

Hokuseiho (3-4) vs Sadanoumi (1-6) – First ever match that is likely in place A) because Hokuseiho has to fight someone, and B) Hokuseiho could really use a win, and why not use ailing Sadanoumi to donate a white star? Sadanoumi’s speed and agility won’t help him much today against Hokuseiho’s limited mobility and overwhelming enormity.

Hiradoumi (2-5) vs Nishikifuji (4-3) – At his highest ever rank, Hiradoumi is finding the competition tough this July. Given the strength of his fundamentals and sumo mechanics, this is his chance to grow. Nishikifuji still has a good chance of leaving Nagoya with 8 wins, but he will need to take 4 of the last 8 to get there. Nishikifuji has a 5-1 career lead.

Oho (2-5) vs Onosho (3-4) – Likewise, Oho is at his highest ever rank, and is finding himself falling short most days. Again, natural progression, and it’s his motivation to improve. Onosho has won his last 2 in a row, and I am hoping he has shed whatever ring rust was plaguing him at the start of Nagoya. He has only won once against Oho in their 4 prior matches.

Meisei (3-4) vs Mitakeumi (1-6) – I really don’t have expectations on Mitakeumi for this July. He’s kind of at a low point personally and physically, so any win he can come up with should be celebrated. He has at 10-5 career advantage over Meisei, but unless we get to see the “old” form of the Original Tadpole as we did on day 7, this may not be much of a contest.

Nishikigi (6-1) vs Tobizaru (4-3) – Having picked up his first loss on day 7, all eyes are on Nishikigi to see if he can go back to winning. Even if he does not, I am certain he will reach 8 wins, and quite possibly double digits. He has done remarkably well thus far, and I am impressed by his simple but effective sumo. He gets hyper-mobile chaos bot Tobizaru for an opponent today. Given Nishikigi’s limited eyesight and questionable mobility, he needs to get a grip at the tachiai if he wants to dictate the form of the match.

Shodai (2-5) vs Abi (3-4) – I want to see at least one match this basho with “good” Shodai from the non-crummy time line. Chances are fair we may get that against Abi today, as Shodai does tend to win against him.

Hoshoryu (6-1) vs Ura (4-3) – Hoshoryu is looking for 12 or maybe 11 wins this tournament. The fact that the Yokozuna and one Ozeki are in dry dock elevate his chances of reaching that goal. For today, I think the best Ura could do is try to play spoiler for Hoshoryu’s Ozeki hopes. He has an even 2-2 record against the Sekiwake, and I think it will come down to Hoshoryu making sure Ura does not latch on to some stray body part and start tugging on it.

Kotonowaka (5-2) vs Wakamotoharu (5-2) – Wakamotoharu is likewise looking for 11 or 12 wins this July. He has a stiff contest against Kotonowaka, who has a solid formula for dominating their matches. Kotonowaka holds a 6-3 career lead, and won both of their 2 most recent matches.

Asanoyama (4-3) vs Daieisho (5-2) – Daieisho is looking for 10 or 11 wins this tournament, and I like his chances against Asanoyama today. Asanoyama’s mechanics are still Ozeki grade, but the core strength, endurance and intensity are still in need of a bit of a tune up. Daieisho will look to keep Asanoyama at thrusting distance and disrupt him until he’s out or down.

Midorifuji (1-6) vs Kirishima (2-3-2) – Kirishima needs to win 6 of the final 8 to reach kachi-koshi and avoid joining Takakeisho in being kadoban for September. He has a 4-1 career record against Midorifuji, so the chances are good he can rack up win #3 today. But it would be great to see a Midorifuji katasukashi today.