Yesterday, we set up the quarterfinals among the 4-0 rikishi:
Ms7e Otsuji vs. Ms11e Fujiseiun
Ms26e Kotoyusho vs. Ms32 Kazenoumi
Ms40e Aonishiki vs. Ms51e Shunrai
Ms60TD Kusano vs. Sd2e Amakaze
Fujiseiun prevailed, and will be the only former sekitori in the semifinals, as well as the only rikishi ranked high enough to earn a promotion by winning out. He started in Ozumo 3 years ago, went 21-0 in his first three basho, and got as high as Juryo 6 before sitting out three tournaments with an injury. His next opponent should be Kazenoumi, another prospect fighting in his 9th basho. And we get the semifinal I was hoping for between two former amateur stars: young Ukrainian Aonishiki, whose professional record so far stands at 25-1 with two yusho, and newcomer Kusano, who joined Ozumo after making quite a name for himself as a university and international wrestler.
In the promotion zone, Ms1w Kayo (4-1) looks set to finally make a sekitori debut. Ms3e Kiryuko (4-1) may also have already done enough, but one more win would make a Juryo debut a lot more likely. Ms1e Akua (2-3) can ensure immediate re-promotion by winning out, but another loss will keep him in the unsalaried ranks. Ms2w Nabatame (3-2) could go up with one more win, and should be a lock with two. And by winning today, Ms4e Kitaharima (3-2) kept his hopes for a record-setting 10th promotion to Juryo alive.
The only relevant Day 10 action will see Kitaharima visiting Juryo to take on J14e Tochitaikai, whom he’s bested in their two prior meetings. The other key bouts will take place on Day 11; come back then to see where things stand.
I am starting these posts a couple of days later than usual. As a result, four rounds of bouts have been completed, and the picture is a little clearer.
In the promotion zone, the best-placed rikishi at the moment are Ms1w Kayo (3-1), who should finally earn a sekitori debut with one more win, Ms3e Kiryuko (4-1), who may have already done enough, though one more win would make a Juryo debut a lot more likely, Ms1e Akua (2-2), who can make an immediate comeback by winning two of his final three bouts, and Ms2w Nabatame (2-2), who needs at least two more wins and a favorable promotion scenario. Several others still have chances, but they’re more remote.
Among the seven undefeated rikishi who will battle it out for the yusho, two are in the extended promotion zone, where a 7-0 record means a near-automatic promotion. They are Ms7e Otsuji and Ms11e Fujiseiun, and they go head-to-head tomorrow. The other quarterfinal bouts pit Ms26e Kotoyusho against Ms32 Kazenoumi, Ms40e Aonishiki against Ms51e Shunrai, and Ms60TD Kusano against the highest-ranked undefeated man in Sandanme, Sd2e Amakaze, who actually reached Makuuchi for one basho way all the way back in 2016. For me, the most exciting names here are young Ukrainian Aonishiki, whose professional record so far stands at 24-1 with two yusho, and newcomer Kusano, who joined Ozumo after making quite a name for himself as a university and international amateur. Should both win, they would be on track to meet in a highlight bout on Day 11. Come back tomorrow to see who makes the semifinals!
The sekitori promotions have been announced. After a one-basho absence, Chiyomaru returns to the salaried ranks he occupied for over a decade. The others are new: Ms15TD starter Onokatsu, who makes it after 3 basho in Makushita with a combined 16-5 record, yusho winner Kazekeno, who started at the bottom two years ago and rose steadily before slowing down a bit in upper Makushita, and Tsukahara (now Tochitaikai), who was a strong prospect back in 2018, earning Jonokuchi and Jonidan yusho in his first two basho and getting to Makushita within a year, but then got stuck there, missing out on half a dozen prior promotion chances.
The corresponding demotions are not announced, but we can look at the ranks and records and confidently say that leaving Juryo are Kotoeko, Kitaharima, and Akua.
The stormy basho certainly lived up to its nickname! We’ve just witnessed a historic yusho by the rookie Takerufuji; may he heal fully from his injury and give us the kind of career that this brief glimpse suggests is possible. Now that all the hardware has been handed out, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how the Haru results are likely to reshuffle the rankings for Natsu.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
Terunofuji will remain alone atop the rankings. Tachiai wishes him the fullest recovery possible, and looks forward to a strong performance in May or whenever he is ready. With Takakeisho successfully clearing kadoban, we will have the same four Ozeki in May, although in a different order. Based on their Haru win totals, Hoshoryu will hold the top O1e slot for the first time, followed by Kotonowaka, Takakeisho, and Kirishima, who will be kadoban and needs 8 wins to defend his rank. Tachiai hopes for a return to form from the recent Yokozuna hopeful.
Lower San’yaku
Two of the four incumbents succeeded, and two flopped. S1w Wakamotoharu (9-6) will debut on the East side in his 6th appearance at the third-highest rank. His current rank will be taken over by K1e Abi (9-6), who returns to Sekiwake for the first time in two years. S1e Daieisho (6-9) leaves Sekiwake after a full year, and will make only his second maegashira apperance in two years. And Nishikigi’s second Komusubi appearance went even worse than his first. This leaves two Komusubi slots to be filled, and they will go to M1w Asanoyama (9-6), who finally returns to the named ranks after his 2021 fall from grace, and M5w Onosato (11-4), who debuts in San’yaku in only his 7th professional basho! He may have been overshadowed by Takerufuji’s legendary debut, but it’s still a remarkable start to a career. I believe Ichinojo is the only rikishi to rise to San’yaku this fast or faster (he did it in his 6th basho, and went straight to Sekiwake).
Upper Maegashira
Unlike last time, when there was a giant vacuum in this part of the banzuke, the incumbents acquitted themselves well. Half of the wrestlers ranked M1-M5 posted winning records, and only one ended with double-digit losses. That one rikishi, M3w Takanosho (5-10), will fall out of the top 10 maegashira ranks, and so will M5e Midorifuji (7-8), but just barely. Rising to take their spots, as well as those vacated via promotion to Komusubi, are M6w Gonoyama (10-5), M8w Takayasu (11-4), and M8e Onosho (9-6). Along with Daiesho and such holdovers as Atamifuji, Hiradoumi, Tobizaru, Ura, Oho and Meisei, there should be plenty of firepower here to trouble the named ranks in May.
The Juryo Barge
With a nod to Bruce, “the barge of the damned” will be captained by injury victim M12w Shimazuumi (0-4-11). At first mate will be M14w Kitanowaka (3-12), who is 8-22 in his two top-division appearances. And the third fully booked passage belongs to M16e Endo (5-10), who’s spent only two basho in Juryo in his entire eleven-year career (once in his 3rd basho, on his way up, and once following his career-altering knee injury in 2016). There’s speculation that the veteran and fan favorite, who’s long owned a kabu, may opt to retire rather than fight in the second division. Two more rikishi posted records that leave them in danger of demotion: M15e Myogiryu (6-9) and M16w Daiamami (7-8); both lost on the final day when a victory would have meant safety. I’ve heard injured M6e Tsurugisho mentioned in the demotion conversation, but I believe his two wins should be just enough to keep him in Makuuchi.
On the Juryo side of the exchange, yusho winner J2w Mitoryu (12-3) is guaranteed to go up, along with J4w Oshoma (11-4) and J1e Tokihayate (8-7). Mitoryu has made a couple of forgettable top-division apperances, while the other two will be making their debuts. The final two promotion candidates are J1w Takarafuji (8-7) and J3w Tomokaze (9-6). Will both, one, or neither go up at the expense of Myogiryu and Daiamami? If only one, who? It’s close, and I’ll need to look into this further before making a guess.
Sekitori Promotions
Finally, let’s wrap up the action in Makushita and see who did enough to cross the Heaven/Hell boundary and enter the salaried ranks. One slot in Juryo is open due to Hokuseiho’s “retirement”; this should be the last time his name appears in one of these posts. Two more will be vacated by J12e Kotoeko (1-14) and J14e Kitaharima (4-11). There are three clear candidates to take their spots: yusho winner J13w Kazekeno (7-0), who gets the coveted automatic promotion that goes to an undefeated wrestler ranked Ms15 or higher, top-ranked longtime sekitori, his roundness Ms1e Chiyomaru (4-3), who returns after a one-basho absence, and the last-ever Ms15 tsukedashi, Ms2w Onokatsu (5-2). Two more men have promotion claims: Ms3w Kayo (4-3) and Ms4w Tsukahara (5-2). I think Tsukahara will swap places with J13e Akua (6-9) after winning their “exchange bout” on Day 15, leaving Kayo out in the cold. That is, unless Endo were to retire ahead of the banzuke meeting on Wednesday, which would create an extra slot.
We’ll learn the sekitori promotions on Wednesday, but we’ll have to wait for the rest until the Natsu banzuke is released on April 30. I’ll try to get a full banzuke post up before then, though work may get in the way. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
