The stormy basho certainly lived up to its nickname! We’ve just witnessed a historic yusho by the rookie Takerufuji; may he heal fully from his injury and give us the kind of career that this brief glimpse suggests is possible. Now that all the hardware has been handed out, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how the Haru results are likely to reshuffle the rankings for Natsu.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
Terunofuji will remain alone atop the rankings. Tachiai wishes him the fullest recovery possible, and looks forward to a strong performance in May or whenever he is ready. With Takakeisho successfully clearing kadoban, we will have the same four Ozeki in May, although in a different order. Based on their Haru win totals, Hoshoryu will hold the top O1e slot for the first time, followed by Kotonowaka, Takakeisho, and Kirishima, who will be kadoban and needs 8 wins to defend his rank. Tachiai hopes for a return to form from the recent Yokozuna hopeful.
Lower San’yaku
Two of the four incumbents succeeded, and two flopped. S1w Wakamotoharu (9-6) will debut on the East side in his 6th appearance at the third-highest rank. His current rank will be taken over by K1e Abi (9-6), who returns to Sekiwake for the first time in two years. S1e Daieisho (6-9) leaves Sekiwake after a full year, and will make only his second maegashira apperance in two years. And Nishikigi’s second Komusubi appearance went even worse than his first. This leaves two Komusubi slots to be filled, and they will go to M1w Asanoyama (9-6), who finally returns to the named ranks after his 2021 fall from grace, and M5w Onosato (11-4), who debuts in San’yaku in only his 7th professional basho! He may have been overshadowed by Takerufuji’s legendary debut, but it’s still a remarkable start to a career. I believe Ichinojo is the only rikishi to rise to San’yaku this fast or faster (he did it in his 6th basho, and went straight to Sekiwake).
Upper Maegashira
Unlike last time, when there was a giant vacuum in this part of the banzuke, the incumbents acquitted themselves well. Half of the wrestlers ranked M1-M5 posted winning records, and only one ended with double-digit losses. That one rikishi, M3w Takanosho (5-10), will fall out of the top 10 maegashira ranks, and so will M5e Midorifuji (7-8), but just barely. Rising to take their spots, as well as those vacated via promotion to Komusubi, are M6w Gonoyama (10-5), M8w Takayasu (11-4), and M8e Onosho (9-6). Along with Daiesho and such holdovers as Atamifuji, Hiradoumi, Tobizaru, Ura, Oho and Meisei, there should be plenty of firepower here to trouble the named ranks in May.
The Juryo Barge
With a nod to Bruce, “the barge of the damned” will be captained by injury victim M12w Shimazuumi (0-4-11). At first mate will be M14w Kitanowaka (3-12), who is 8-22 in his two top-division appearances. And the third fully booked passage belongs to M16e Endo (5-10), who’s spent only two basho in Juryo in his entire eleven-year career (once in his 3rd basho, on his way up, and once following his career-altering knee injury in 2016). There’s speculation that the veteran and fan favorite, who’s long owned a kabu, may opt to retire rather than fight in the second division. Two more rikishi posted records that leave them in danger of demotion: M15e Myogiryu (6-9) and M16w Daiamami (7-8); both lost on the final day when a victory would have meant safety. I’ve heard injured M6e Tsurugisho mentioned in the demotion conversation, but I believe his two wins should be just enough to keep him in Makuuchi.
On the Juryo side of the exchange, yusho winner J2w Mitoryu (12-3) is guaranteed to go up, along with J4w Oshoma (11-4) and J1e Tokihayate (8-7). Mitoryu has made a couple of forgettable top-division apperances, while the other two will be making their debuts. The final two promotion candidates are J1w Takarafuji (8-7) and J3w Tomokaze (9-6). Will both, one, or neither go up at the expense of Myogiryu and Daiamami? If only one, who? It’s close, and I’ll need to look into this further before making a guess.
Sekitori Promotions
Finally, let’s wrap up the action in Makushita and see who did enough to cross the Heaven/Hell boundary and enter the salaried ranks. One slot in Juryo is open due to Hokuseiho’s “retirement”; this should be the last time his name appears in one of these posts. Two more will be vacated by J12e Kotoeko (1-14) and J14e Kitaharima (4-11). There are three clear candidates to take their spots: yusho winner J13w Kazekeno (7-0), who gets the coveted automatic promotion that goes to an undefeated wrestler ranked Ms15 or higher, top-ranked longtime sekitori, his roundness Ms1e Chiyomaru (4-3), who returns after a one-basho absence, and the last-ever Ms15 tsukedashi, Ms2w Onokatsu (5-2). Two more men have promotion claims: Ms3w Kayo (4-3) and Ms4w Tsukahara (5-2). I think Tsukahara will swap places with J13e Akua (6-9) after winning their “exchange bout” on Day 15, leaving Kayo out in the cold. That is, unless Endo were to retire ahead of the banzuke meeting on Wednesday, which would create an extra slot.
We’ll learn the sekitori promotions on Wednesday, but we’ll have to wait for the rest until the Natsu banzuke is released on April 30. I’ll try to get a full banzuke post up before then, though work may get in the way. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
I doubt Endo will retire. I think his kabu is loaned out.
I tend to agree although not for the same reason. Tenkaiho could take the Tatsutagawa name on loan for the time being if Endo needs the Kitajin name.
Im curious. Him who shall not be named anymore, went to J3e from M8e with 2 wins and Tsurugisho starts at M6e with 2 wins, so it wouldn’t be out of sorts, if he gets demoted, especially as there seems to be some bias against kyujo losses. We will see in 6 weeks how it pans out. I think Takarafuji has priority over Tomokaze, but that’s it ;-)
Those two ranks make the difference between computing just inside makuuchi and outside it, and I think J3 rather than the J1/2 we expected reflected that they knew something we didn’t 😉
I appreciate your support for Tsurugisho;-) let’s ask an expert on that matter …
Me: Bushuyama, how do you feel about the chances of someone at M6 staying in Makuuchi with just two wins.
Bushuyama: Uh … that’s a tough one. You know … usually people don’t have such bad tournaments , where you rather should have stayed home. But know what, if anyone can speak from experience, that would be me. In 2009 they send me down to the top spot in Juryo, but one year later I clang to the last spot in Makuuchi.
Me: So it’s about 50/50 you would say.
Bushuyama: Yeah well … that could be about right. You know, there was this other guy in 2009 … Chiyohakuho. He went down to Juryo as well. But you know … different times, different circumstances. All I know is that you have to go back to the 1970s, to have people from M4 or M5 been sent to Juryo with just two wins and the two most recent times that happened from M8 they were sent down.
Me: So if you were Tsurugisho now, the best is to hope that there is no one to go up in your place?
Bushuyama: That makes sense. When Chiyohakuho and me went down that year, we got replaced by someone with 10wins from J4. When I managed to stay, it would have been 8 wins from J5 or 9 from J6 to put ahead of me. But also keep in mind, the Banzuke ended at M16 that time. Let’s see what the banzuke committee thinks. Good luck to Tsurugisho!
I agree with you that mathematically Tsurugisho has a good case to stay.
I am curious where they will slot Takerufuji
Yeah, good question. He naturally fits around M6, and it’s pretty crowded higher up, but I’m sure they’ll do their best to boost him, I’ll have to look more closely if there’s a spot.
With a 13-2 Yusho, his stablemate and current Yokozuna went from M17 to M1. Teru also had 2 special prizes to gild the Yusho. With all 3 specials I think Takerufuji could reasonably be M1w. There is precedent and not that far in the past.
Would it be stretching to give him a Komosubi 2 slot?
Yes. And the issue isn’t where he deserves to be ranked, it’s whom you’d move down to accommodate him without screwing them over. I don’t think they’d not promote someone with a winning record at all, or push down someone with a 7-8 much more than a rank, and those are the kinds of choices you’re looking at.
Tending to agree with your take. I just redid my Banzuke guess for Natsu, and rather than keep Takeru at M1, I had to keep moving him down to fill the more deserving rikishi in the proper slots, ending up with Takeru at M5e.
I don’t care about the number as such, as long it’s a given that he’s going to face all the top guys over the fifteen days.
I don’t begrudge Takerufuji his M17 yusho at all, but he’s in the big leagues now.
(I know that if the yokozuna is back, then the “no bouts between heya-mates” rule comes into play. I have some questions about the full implications of that policy which I plan to ask Tachiai about when the time is right.)
He can’t face Atamifuji or Midorifuji either, who’ll both be ranked near him. He may end up in a similar spot as Onosato this time: facing upper maegashira but not the top guys until the second week, and only if he’s doing well.
i cant find a table of matches and results of january , all i can find is march
it always shows latest basho , nothing of the previous
i know they have all the records , but i cant pick January
example :
https://sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoMain/torikumi/2/15/
will show march results of juryo
is there was a drop down box to select which tournament month and year i want it would be awsome, cause just wanted to see the table for past tournament in january
https://sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoMain/torikumi/2024/january/2/15/
something like that above
greetings , nice basho, i liked it a lot , take care
You should google sumodb. If it isn’t down, it has everything you need.
Only the Japanese side of the NSK’s official site has archived results.
https://www.sumo.or.jp/ResultRikishiDataDaicho/search/
So yeah, I second the previous comment’s suggestion to just use Sumo Reference at https://sumodb.sumogames.de/.
Disappointed in NHK Sumo Prime Time. They eliminated a lot of (admittedly illegal) sumo content on YouTube but then did nothing during either the 2024 or Haru basho. Also NHK did not do their usual panel discussion before in either basho. While some of the fluff they put on between basho is interesting, I wish they covered the more controversial sumo news too.
Excellent description of Sumo Prime Time: fluff! What a shame, for the sake of that channel they killed the sumo fan media.
NHK did have the panel discussion with Hiro, John and Murray. But nowadays it seems to be on the day before the basho and you miss it, if you are not on the lookout.
Writing from Europe that is.
I think it’s important to make a distinction here
Sumo Prime Time is not from NHK, although one of NHK’s voices of sumo Hiro Morita is the host. It is independently produced although someone with more knowledge of it may be able to confirm whether the Kyokai has any direct ownership of it. Certainly they are very involved in working with Sumo Prime Time to allow unique access. It is therefore highly unlikely that Sumo Prime Time as a channel with so much influence from the Kyokai will cover “controversial” sumo topics which the Kyokai might rather keep out of the news.
I’m not sure what you mean by panel discussion, but NHK did run its Grand Sumo Preview (which usually involves at least 3 if not 4 NHK sumo personalities) before the basho on March 8. While it’s not something that they will likely discuss in the context of daily bouts, it’s certainly possible that NHK will cover confirmed news on their news outlets, or discuss it in future programs once decisions are made final. For example, there has been no decision formally announced yet about what the Kyokai plans to do with Miyagino beya, from the Kyokai themselves. Until that happens, there will be no announcement from official sources either.
When we have interviewed NHK personalities for Tachiai in the past, some of them have made it very clear that they discuss only facts, not speculation. In fact, when I write posts on here, every now and then I will get a message from one of them saying “is there something you know? because you made it sound like a fact and actually you are speculating.” As a blog, we can of course speculate, but NHK – unlike the newspaper tabloids – are not in a position to do this.
I am also very critical of NHK and Kyokai efforts to clamp down on content outside of Japan (where various rights make it extremely difficult for many fans to watch), but I do think it’s important to credit them where due, and also understand their position and what they can discuss.
IIRC Hiro pitched the concept to them, but Sumo Prime Time is 100% an official Kyokai venture. That’s also acknowledged by the Japanese press, e.g. Tokyo Sports summarizing SPT’s recent visit to Otowayama-beya here (see first sentence):
https://www.tokyo-sports.co.jp/articles/-/293147
Sumo makes it into the broadsheets:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/25/emperors-cup-grand-sumo-tournament-japan-mikiya-ishioka-takerufuji-results-victory
I expect Takerufuji to overtake Onosho and be part of the joi. My guess is M4e.
There have been three other rikishi with 13 wins from M17 and they landed on K1w, M1e (Terunofuji) and M4w.
According to your maths Daiamami and Myogiryu should fall back behind Takarufuji and Tomokaze. Any reasons to doubt this will happen in reality?
As to the Juryo promotions I wonder if Tsukahara will really overtake Kayo, who also won his exchange bout on day 14. Bad luck, that his then opponent reached kachi koshi?
Queries show that U‘re obviously right: the percentage of promotions from Ms4 with 5-2 is clearly higher than from Ms3 with 4-3.
As Makushita has only 7 bouts a tournament, a win more also is more impactful than in Makuuchi or Juryo. Would need to do some data crunching, but I think Kayo would need to be at least Ms2w, if not Ms2e, to get priority over Tsukahara here.
Had Nabatame won, I’m not even sure whether Kayo or Nabatame would have gotten the nod.
There’s a big discussion over on sumo forum about where to place Takerufuji. He certainly deserves a higher ranking, but it’s very crowded up there. Bumping Onosho is certainly plausible.
At the M/J line, it’s just that it’s very close, and there’s some incumbent bias. In terms of banzuke positions, they compute to 43, 44, 42, and 42, in the order you listed them. Takarafuji (42) for Myogiryu (44) seems likely, especially since you’re talking about a long-time Makuuchi veteran. Tomokaze (42) for Daiamami (43) is less clear. And since the two Juryo guys are tied, maybe they send neither up? Their decisions tend to follow the math, but obviously not completely, or banzuke predictions would be much easier 😉
Sorry to see Kotoeko tumbling further down.
Why is it that when someone does as well as Takerefuji we immediately start day-dreaming, “hmm.. Yokozuma’! I wish him lots of success, spindly legs and all.
Glad Kirishima got his mojo back; better late than never.
Ah Endo, will miss those sexy lips; alas we still have Tobizaru❤️
My apologies to Diamami, didn’t think he’d win more than 5 matches; still looks like he needs to be on a respirator.
Why, why, why does Gomer Pyle, er Dieisho, keep making that same mistake of overextending? Help me understand!
Ura should win a prize for being the most entertaining wrestler of the basho.
Frankly, I think Sumo Prime Time needs some work.
Ura, complete with knee braces, shows more flexibility and balancing moves than most completely healthy rikishi. And he nearly always sprints back to his position no matter how badly he was tossed out. He is a character for sure.
Excellent analysis, Leonid. Long may you prognosticate!