Aki Basho 2022

Aki 2024: Shonichi Preview

Andy Aki Basho 2022

As a bit of a distraction we were able to watch the debut MMA fight of former Isegahama wrestler, Terutsuyoshi. The good news is that despite MMA legend Bob Sapp being in his opponent’s corner, Terutsuyoshi won with a second round TKO.

It was clear early on that Terutsuyoshi was disadvantaged on height and reach. His opponent, Wi Sung-On, landed many headshots during the first round. Terutsuyoshi resorted to rushing his opponent and either tackling him and continuing to attack with punches, or to knock him out of the fighting surface. The fight ended after one of these tackles. Terutsuyoshi tackled and then continued to punch the back of his opponent’s head, so the ref called the fight over.

Alright, reboot, reset your mind. The Dohyo has been rebuilt and consecrated. It’s sumo time. The party is about to start. The good folks over at Sumo Kaboom! are in Ryogoku so make sure to check in over there to hear and see more about their travels. I am jealous.

Kyujo Report

Terunofuji is out. News from Isegahama-oyakata raise deep concerns about his health, on top of his physical condition. It sounds like he needs considerable time away. Sadly, it’s probably the same story for Takakeisho but T-Rex will fight. He has not been practicing and will enter the tournament relatively cold. Yeah, he knows the sport and he knows how to win but that’s not the problem. Sitting on the couch doesn’t keep that body, those muscles in shape.

Down in Juryo, Asanoyama is out. His recovery from surgery continues and we will likely not see him until 2025. Myogiryu, however, has also been added to the kyujo list. If he does not intend to participate, this could be the end of his career. Watch this space for an announcement early next week. Importantly, Takerufuji will be back in action. Most attention will be on that ankle.

Makuuchi Torikumi Highlights

We have a couple of debutants in the top division, Onokatsu and Shirokuma. Shirokuma will face the young Kitanowaka who earned his return to the top division on the back of an 8-7 record in Nagoya. Onokatsu will be challenged by the wily veteran, Ryuden. Keep Ryuden off your belt!

Churanoumi has blitzed the division of late. He cracked into the division in November and has been grinding it out at the bottom of the division. He finally had a break-out performance at Aki and moved up into the meat of the division but will have to step it up to succeed against Wakatakakage.

Ura will try to figure out how to combat Shonannoumi’s size advantage. So far the beach bum has had no problems forcing Ura onto his own bum. If Shonannoumi keeps Ura in front and contained, it will be a quick bout. Ura will need to work his way around and get in behind. Easier said than done.

Sekiwake Takakeisho needs 10 wins to reclaim his status as Ozeki. To do it, he’ll have to start against another former Ozeki, Mitakeumi. I mentioned his lack of preparation above. This might not start well. Kirishima and Oho have been going in opposite directions. The pressure may be off Kirishima as he has officially joined the likes of Shodai, Mitakeumi, and Takayasu as former Ozeki. Oho started moving forward more consistently on the dohyo and that has brought success and moved him up the banzuke. Kirishima has not been able to force many of his opponents backwards of late. He will come out with a high-energy, blitzing attack. Will Oho contain him?

Onosato will fight Atamifuji. With the Ozeki ranks being emptied, of late, Onosato will need to do something special this tournament to secure Ozeki promotion. Terunofuji is not here. That’s a big hurdle that he will not have to surpass. As for the Ozeki we have, Hoshoryu will fight Takanosho, who seemingly came out of nowhere in Nagoya to contend for the title. Lastly, with no Yokozuna, Kotozakura will fight Hiradoumi in the musubi-no-ichiban. Hiradoumi is a fire-cracker. No, strike that. He’s no mere fire-cracker. He’s been a bottle-rocket, steadily rising up the banzuke and finally reaching double-digit wins in Nagoya and picking up a special prize. Is it time for him to bust out and take it to the next level?

Summary

I’ll be honest, I don’t know where to go with this tournament. I like Onosato’s chances at promotion but I felt that way at the beginning of Nagoya. I thought Hiradoumi would have a tough time and he got 10 wins. Takayasu should do very well but I am not going to call for a yusho, as I usually do. His back seems to really be keeping him from making progress so he might not last much longer than Aoiyama before retirement. I will try to pay a bit closer attention to the maezumo class as well as that in November, with Daniel. I’m eager to learn his shikona but I’m guessing it will be Musashi-something. Maybe Musashiumi? (Taken, already!) I kind of like the ring to that. Well, I plan to sit back, grab a cup of shochu or Japanese whiskey and enjoy the action.

Aki 2024 Banzuke Review

lksumo Aki Basho 2022

The Aki banzuke has been released, so we can ask a couple of questions. How did my prediction do? What was the banzuke committee drinking?

San’yaku

This played out exactly as predicted. Terunofuji has now made it 3 straight years as the sole East Yokozuna. East Ozeki Kotozakura (10-5) and West Ozeki Hoshoryu (9-4-2) maintain their ranks. All five incumbents at Sekiwake and Komusubi finished with winning records, and they will be joined by demoted Ozeki Takakeisho, so we’ll have four Sekiwake and two Komusubi. And as predicted, S1e Abi (8-7) and S1w Onosato did not switch sides, and neither did K1e Daieisho (8-7) and K1w Hiradoumi (10-5).

M1-M12

Here’s what I wrote in the prediction post: “This part of the banzuke should be fairly predictable. Based on the usual rank-record math and precedence of East over West, there is a clear rank order, with only a handful of ties.” Turns out that I was correct for M1-M4 and M8-M12, but the banzuke committee made some unorthodox choices in between. I had the correct tiebreakers for Oho vs. Mitakeumi, Wakamotoharu vs. Shodai, Endo vs. Midorifuji, Ichiyamamoto vs. Oshoma, Roga vs. Sadanoumi, and Bushozan vs. Kinbozan. What I did not see coming was Ura getting a minimal half-rank demotion from M4w to M5e after a 6-9 record. In a similar vein, M1e Meisei only dropped 5 ranks after his 4-11, and M3w Gonoyama fell 3 ranks after going 5-10. As a consequence, M14e Wakatakakage (11-4) ended up two full ranks lower than predicted, and M12w Churanoumi (10-5) also got less of a promotion.

M13-M17

I at least had the humility to write: “I have little confidence in the order here, and there is even some uncertainty in who’ll be ranked here as opposed to in Juryo.” And still some of the decisions left me picking up my jaw off the floor. I did correctly pick the three Juryo promotions—J1w Onokatsu (9-6), J8e Shirokuma (12-3), and J3e Kitanowaka (8-7)—and even place Kitanowaka at his actual landing spot of M16w, but that’s about all I got right. The biggest head-scratcher is the committee leaving M13e Hokutofuji and M17e Nishikifuji at their prior ranks despite their 6-9 records. Yup, that’s not a typo. I can’t think of another instance when a top-division rikishi got to keep rank with 9 losses, except for the 2011 scandal banzuke when a number of wrestlers were forcibly retired. And it’s very rare for the lowest man in the division to stick around even with a 7-8, much less a 6-9. It’s not like they didn’t have options: either M15e Chiyoshoma (5-5-5) or my pick, M5e Onosho (0-4-11), would have been a more palatable choice to occupy M17e, as would J10e Shishi (11-4) or J6w Tamashoho (9-6). I am completely at a loss to explain this decision.

In all, I placed 29 of 42 rikishi at the correct rank and record. I missed Takarafuji’s placement by half a rank, several others by 1 to 1.5 ranks, Wakatakakage by two full ranks, and Shirokuma by 2.5 (that one, at least, is on me). It’s not clear if this banzuke is a one-off oddity, or whether some of the long-held rules of banzuke construction need to be rethought going forward.

Aki 2024 Banzuke Crystal Ball

lksumo Aki Basho 2022

Right after the Nagoya basho, I took a preliminary look at how the July results are likely to reshuffle the rankings chart for September. Now, it’s time for my full banzuke prediction. Here’s the guess; scroll down to read my analysis.

San’yaku

There is little suspense in the named ranks. Terunofuji will make it 3 straight years as the sole East Yokozuna. East Ozeki Kotozakura (10-5) and West Ozeki Hoshoryu (9-4-2) both posted winning records, the former got one more win, and so they will maintain their ranks for Aki. All five incumbents at Sekiwake and Komusubi finished with winning records, and they will be joined by demoted Ozeki Takakeisho, so we’ll have four Sekiwake and two Komusubi. The only question is whether S1e Abi (8-7) and S1w Onosato and/or K1e Daieisho (8-7) and K1w Hiradoumi (10-5) will switch sides based on the West-side rikishi getting more wins. In recent years, such switches have required a greater disparity in performance than seen here, so I’ve opted to keep everyone in place.

M1-M12

This part of the banzuke should be fairly predictable. Based on the usual rank-record math and precedence of East over West, there is a clear rank order, with only a handful of ties that I’ve opted to break as follows:

  • Oho vs. Mitakeumi: Oho gets M2w so 7-8 Mitakeumi can receive a minimal demotion.
  • Wakamotoharu vs. Shodai: WMH gets M3w by virtue of his higher rank and tough schedule.
  • Ura vs. Churanoumi: same as above.
  • Endo vs. Midorifuji: similar ranks and fight cards, so 10-win Endo gets M8e over 8-win Midorifuji.
  • Ichiyamamoto vs. Oshoma: more wins for Ichiyamamoto, and Oshoma receives a minimal demotion.
  • Roga vs. Sadanoumi: more wins for Roga, and Sadanoumi still gets a lenient demotion.
  • Bushozan vs. Kinbozan: same as above.

M13-M17

I have little confidence in the order here, and there is even some uncertainty in who’ll be ranked here as opposed to in Juryo. We have only two clear promotions in J1w Onokatsu (9-6) and Juryo champion J8e Shirokuma (12-3), but six incumbents deserve a trip to the second division. Injury victim M12e Asanoyama (3-2-10) and M17e Nishikifuji (6-9) will be demoted for certain. Next in line is M15e Chiyoshoma (5-5-5). I’ve swapped him with J3e Kitanowaka, whose 8-7 record doesn’t really warrant promotion, so the banzuke committee could conceivably opt to save the incumbent. Then, we come to another injury victim, M5e Onosho (0-4-11). All seven winless M5 rikishi this century ended up in Juryo, but who is there to bring up? It would have to be either J10e Shishi (11-4) or J6w Tamashoho (9-6), each of whom would have needed two more wins for a proper promotion claim. I think Onosho will be fortunate enough to survive, though it wouldn’t be a shock to see him in Juryo. As for the other two men facing potential demotion, the lack of promotion candidates should keep M13w Takarafuji (5-10) and M3e Takayasu (0-2-13) safely in the top division. I’ve cobbled together the order above based on a combination of historical research and vibes, but given that three rikishi are coming up from Juryo, the incumbents have terrible records, and four of the nine don’t even deserve to be in the top division based on July, pretty much anything could happen here.

Looking Ahead to the Aki Banzuke

lksumo Aki Basho 2022

Apologies for the lack of mid-basho posts; things got in the way. Well, it was much more of a close-run thing than any of us expected just a couple of days ago, but he did it! Congratulations to our sole Yokozuna Terunofuji on taking the yusho and reaching his long-stated career goal of 10 top-division championships. Now that the Nagoya results are in the books, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how they’re likely to reshuffle the rankings.

Juryo-Makushita Exchanges

Since I wasn’t able to provide my usual Makushita updates, let’s start there. The yusho went to Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), who will make his sekitori debut at Aki. He will be joined by Ms1w Kiryuko (6-1), who was extremely unlucky to miss out on a Juryo debut after Natsu and made certain this time, as well as by Ms3w Oshoumi (5-2), who won his exchange bout with J11e Tochitaikai (5-10) on the final day. So Oshoumi makes an immediate return to the paid ranks after his May demotion, while Tochitaikai drops out after two basho in the second division. Making room for Daiseizan and Kiryuko will be J12w Tsushimanada (1-14) and J14w Nabatame (4-11), whose Juryo debut … did not go well.

Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges

Unlike the neat picture above, this is very messy. A combination of absences and poor performances left six Makuuchi rikishi with records that could warrant demotion, while only two Juryo rikishi were able to secure strong promotion claims. The two are J1w Onokatsu (9-6) and Juryo champion J8e Shirokuma (12-3), who should add some youth and excitement to the top division when they debut in September. They will replace injury victim M12e Asanoyama (3-2-10) and M17e Nishikifuji (6-9). M15e Chiyoshoma’s final-day loss to Nishikifuji left him with a 5-10 record and very likely headed back to Juryo. His spot would go to J3e Kitanowaka, whose 8-7 record from that rank doesn’t really warrant promotion, but there isn’t a better alternative. Next, we come to another injury victim, M5e Onosho (0-4-11). All seven winless M5 rikishi this century ended up in Juryo, but who is there to bring up? It would have to be either J10e Shishi (11-4) or J6w Tamashoho (9-6), each of whom would have needed two more wins for a proper promotion claim. This’ll be a tough call for the banzuke committee, and Onosho may be fortunate enough to survive. As for the other two men facing potential demotion, the lack of promotion candidates should keep M13w Takarafuji (5-10) and M3e Takayasu (0-2-13) safely in the top division.

Upper Maegashira

The bad news is that all six rikishi ranked M1-M3, and all nine rikishi not named Tobizaru ranked M1-M5, had losing records. However, enough of them went 7-8 or 6-9, and there were sufficient good performances lower down, that filling out this part of the banzuke isn’t too difficult. Our runner-up, M6e Takanosho (12-3), is a shoo-in for the top maegashira slot, unless the banzuke committee decides to go wild and create an extra Komusubi rank for him (as explained below, there are no openings in san’yaku). M4e Tobizaru (9-6) will move up to M1w, the 7-8 trio (Atamifuji, Mitakumi, Shonannoumi) should see minimal if any demotions, I expect the 6-9 duo of Wakamotoharu and Ura to be treated leniently, and kachi-koshi Oho, Shodai, Kotoshoho, Wakatakakage, and Churanoumi will receive generous bumps in rank.

San’yaku

In a rare feat, all five incumbents finished with winning records. This means that S1e Abi (8-7), S1w Onosato (9-6), S2e Kirishima (8-7), K1e Daieisho (8-7) and K1w Hiradoumi (10-5) should keep their ranks; the only question is whether there’ll be any E-W reshuffling based on record. And we’ll have a fourth Sekiwake after O2w Takakeisho (5-10) came up 3 wins short of the 8 he needed to save his Ozeki rank. Like Kirishima this time, he’ll have one chance at Aki to reclaim his rank with double-digit wins, though this seems like a long shot. After failing to hit double-digits, Kirishima is now just a regular Sekiwake, and would have to re-earn Ozeki the hard way. I don’t think Onosato’s 9-6 ends the Ozeki run he started with his 12-3 Natsu yusho, but he’ll need at least 12 wins in September to stake a promotion claim.

Barring a sudden retirement announcement, Terunofuji will make it 3 straight years as the sole East Yokozuna. East Ozeki Kotozakura (10-5) and West Ozeki Hoshoryu (9-4-2) both posted winning records and will maintain their ranks at Aki; Tachiai hopes that Hoshoryu recovers from his injury and is fully fit to fight for the yusho in September. And with that, I think we’re done. Please let me know what you think in the comments.