Aki Storylines, Day 14

We’ve come down to the final day of the exciting Aki basho. Tomorrow, someone will claim the Emperor’s cup, special prizes will be handed out, a few rikishi will resolve their make/kachi-koshi status, and devision exchanges will be sealed. Let’s see where things stand.

The Yusho Race

Takanosho, Mitakeumi, and Takakeisho fulfilled their roles as barriers to lower-ranked challengers, knocking Onosho and Wakatakakage out of the race and leaving Tobizaru one off the pace. Shodai emphatically defeated an Ozeki opponent for the second consecutive day, eliminating Asanoyama and claiming sole possession of the lead at 12-2. Takakeisho and Tobizaru are still in the race at 11-3.

If Shodai can defeat Tobizaru tomorrow, he takes the yusho. Otherwise, the two would go into a playoff, where they could be joined by Takakeisho should he prevail in the Ozeki showdown with Asanoyama.

Special Prizes

Three special prizes can be given to rikishi below the rank of Ozeki who put up especially impressive performances, and each prize can be shared. From Wikipedia:

The three prizes are

  • Shukun-shō (殊勲賞), Outstanding Performance prize
  • Kantō-shō (敢闘賞), Fighting Spirit prize
  • Ginō-shō (技能賞), Technique prize

Typically the Ginō-shō is awarded to a wrestler or wrestlers who display the most skillful kimarite, or techniques; the Shukun-shō is awarded to a wrestler who defeats a yokozuna or the eventual tournament winner, or who otherwise displays outstanding performance relative to his rank; and the Kantō-shō to a wrestler who has most clearly fought tenaciously and to the best of his abilities.

I would guess that the Ginō-shō will go to Shodai, that Tobizaru will receive a  Kantō-shō, and that the Shukun-shō will go to the winner of the bout between them (although I could see them both getting one depending on the outcome of the yusho race). Finally, I think that both Wakatakakage and Onosho will have a Kantō-shō on the line, conditional on winning their final bouts.

The Named Ranks

It’s nice to see both Ozeki with double-digit wins before senshuraku; the word “kadoban” barely came up this basho. Takakeisho could still start a Yokozuna challenge with a yusho, while Asanoyama will have to wait. Shodai has successfully defended his rank, can still hope for an Ozeki promotion and, barring that, should only need double-digit wins to finish a successful run in November. Mitakeumi (8-6) will maintain his rank, and his Ozeki run is still technically alive, but he’ll need 13-14 wins in November.

Daieisho (4-10) will drop far out of san’yaku along with Okinoumi (4-10) and Endo (3-9-2). That opens up two san’yaku slots, and they’ll go to Takanosho and Terunofuji, in that order. Should Shodai create a third slot by earning promotion, the contenders are Wakatakakage, Takayasu, Onosho, Kiribayama, and Tobizaru.

Darwin Bouts

Eight rikishi hold 7-7 records, their fate balanced on a knife-edge. Six have been paired up in classic Darwin bouts: Kotoeko vs. Takarafuji, Kaisei vs. Kagayakai, and Sadanoumi vs. Hoshoryu. Aoiyama will look to pick up his 8th by upsetting Takanosho, while Ichinojo fights for his top-division place against Juryo visitor Chiyonoo.

Makuuch-Juryo Exchanges

Certain to drop to Juryo: Abi and Kyokutaisei.

Hard to see how they’d stay up, even with a win and favorable banzuke luck: Shohozan, Ishiura, Kotoshogiku.

Safe with one more win; might already be okay given 5 demotion candidates ahead of them and a dearth of strong promotion cases in Juryo: Shimanoumi, Ichinojo, Hoshoryu.

Moving up to the top division: J2w Kotonowaka (9-5), Juryo yusho winner J11w Chiyonokuni (13-1), J2e Kotoyuki (8-6).

Next in line, but need final-day wins: J4e Chiyoshoma (8-6), J6e Chiyonoo (9-5), J6w Akua (9-5), J10e Akiseyama (11-3). Someone is going to get very, very lucky.

Juryo-Makushita Exchanges

There are three certain openings in Juryo, one created by Kizakiumi’s retirement and the other two by Oki’s 0-14 sekitori debut and J14 Kitaharima’s (5-9) near-record 8th demotion. J12 Daishoho (6-8) needs 1 win for safety. Complicating matters are the mandated absences and uncertain banzuke fates of J7 Azumaryu and J14 Fujiazuma, as well as the possibility of Kotoshogiku’s retirement. So that’s at least 3 open sekitori slots, and as many as 7.

Two slots will go to Ms1e Takagenji (4-3) and Ms1w Jokoryu (4-3). At the moment, the leading contender for the third is Ms4w Naya (5-2), but Ms5w Ura (5-1) will have something to say about that (and about the number of open slots) when he fights Daishoho on the final day. Ms2e Chiyonoumi (4-3) will be 4th or 5th in line, and Ms5e Kotodaigo (4-3) will be 6th. A long-shot candidate for a possible 7th promotion could be Ms8e Yago (5-1) if he wins, although that’s unlikely to push down Daishoho even if the latter loses.

Aki Day 14 Highlights

A fine day of sumo for all. I am starting to think that Shodai has his act together. I am going to be interested to see if he can keep this level of consistency up, because if he can, he will be a force to be reckoned with. If he is going to be regularly at the top of the division, he may need some kind of occasional use nickname. One internet sumo fan suggested “booger”, as Shodai has been found on camera this past week picking objects out of body openings while he waits for his match. Leave your suggestions in the comments below.

The whole thing comes down to Shodai’s match against Tobizaru as the second to last fight of the tournament. Right now, Shodai controls his fate. He is the sole leader in the yusho race, with only Takakeisho and Tobizaru able to challenge if Shodai should lose tomorrow. Pro tip to Tokitsukaze oyakata – go buy the fish now.

Highlight Matches

Shohozan defeats Nishikigi – I liked this match because Shohozan actually was able to generate some offense against Nishikigi. Of course Nishikigi worked hard to establish an arm bar (his favorite grip), and lost the hold at least once. But Shohozan got a nodowa in with his right, and then pulled. This is a risky move, which frequently gives the initiator a swift loss, but Shohozan got Nishikigi down before he stepped outside himself.

Ishiura defeats Ikioi – Watching Ikioi get up after a loss like that is painful. I can’t imagine what it’s like for him. Both end the day at 3-11, and maybe they can fight it out in Juryo in November.

Sadanoumi defeats Ichinojo – Ichinojo never could set up any kind of defensive footing, and the smaller Sadanoumi moved him around the dohyo with minimal effort. Both are 7-7 and are headed for Darwin matches. Ichinojo continues to be an enigma, he will fight well one day, and be week and ineffective the next.

Kotoeko defeats Shimanoumi – Shimanoumi could not come up with anything other than defense against Kotoeko’s attacks. But that was a really solid defense. Kotoeko kept working to get his hands inside, and kept moving Shimanoumi back. Shimanoumi gets his 8th loss, and Kotoeko improves to 7-7 and qualifies for a day 15 Darwin match.

Kotoshoho defeats Tokushoryu – In sumo, much of a rikishi’s defense comes from their lower body. This is a great example today, as Kotoshoho maintains his stance and balance under Tokushoryu’s offense. We saw Tokushoryu load up that “magic” tsukiotoshi that took him to the yusho in January, but Kotoshoho kept his feet. Tokushoryu’s 8th loss, and is make-koshi for September.

Ryuden defeats Kotoshogiku – Kotoshogiku really has no power left in his legs. I marvel at how gentle Ryuden is with him. Good show sir. With a 2-12 score at Maegashira 11, we may be saying goodbye to the Kyushu Bulldozer soon. He might hang in for the November basho if it were to return to his homeland in the West, but I am pretty sure November it will be another basho re-homed to the Kokugikan.

Kaisei defeats Aoiyama – Aoiyama gave Kaisei a V-Twin attack, and Kaisei held his ground. Aoiyama found he could only move Kaisei a little, and tried for a doulbe handed slap-down. It was at that moment Kaisei lowered his hips and charged. His win leaves both of them at 7-7, and excellent candidates for a day 15 Darwin match.

Hoshoryu defeats Kagayaki – After getting multiple combos to his face, Hoshoryu shifted from direct attack to deflect and move. Kagayaki followed, keeping the pressure up. As Hoshoryu came perilously close to the tawara, he hooked his leg around Kagayaki and pivoted into kakenage. It was great to see, and some mighty fine sumo. Both end the day at 7-7, and its MORE DARWIN!

Meisei defeats Myogiryu – Congrats to Meisei for a solid kachi-koshi (now 9-5) in his rebound match from his quick trip to Juryo. He was there long enough to pick up a yusho, and rough up everyone in the farm league. Hopefully he has recovered from his injury in November of last year. Myogiryu’s 8th loss, and make-koshi.

Enho defeats Terutsuyoshi – We all expected there to be a parade of shenanigans when these two were already make-koshi and facing off late in the basho. Enho employed a flying henka, a reverse battle hug, a quick spin on the Enho-go-round and a push out by the rear for Terutsuyoshi. Bye!

Takayasu defeats Hokutofuji – Hokutofuji kept looking to get a nodowa in against Takayasu, and this caused him to reach in a few times toward the former Ozeki’s neck. Takayasu exploited Hokutofuji’s gambled and slapped him to the dohyo. Takayasu improves to 9-5.

Tochinoshin defeats Tamawashi – These two threw everything they could think of at each other. It was a wild and chaotic match, and the sumo on display here underscores how far both have degraded from their genki forms. Points to Tochinoshin for sticking with the shifting fight modes, and keeping his balance centered.

Takanosho defeats Onosho – Look at Takanosho’s stance. His amazing defensive posture and footwork robbed Onosho of his offense, and at one point his frustration leads to a pull attempt. But Takanosho is planted and is going nowhere. When he finally gets Takanosho on the move, Onosho’s too far forward and wide open for Takanosho’s hatakikomi. Not sure how Takanosho applied that much force when only his little toe had a grip on wrong edge of the tawara, but he made it work. Seriously genki pinky-toe. Feed it some roast beef, sir!

Kiribayama defeats Okinoumi – Very evasive sumo from Kiribayama, with a step to the side at the tachiai. But it was enough for kachi-koshi today, after sitting out a few days earlier in the tournament due to a shoulder injury.

Takarafuji defeats Daieisho – This is a great match to watch a few times at regular match and in slow motion, as Takarafuji has much to teach today. As is frequently his plan, he comes on with a strong defense and works to endure his opponent’s opening attacks. Note where his hips are relative to his feet when Daieisho attacks his neck. Takarafuji his high, but stable. His body is at the extent of Daieisho’s reach, so Daieisho can only apply fraction force. As the fight continues, Takarafuji keeps his feet as close as possible to the center of the ring. Although Daieisho is attacking like mad, Takarafuji converts any attempt by Daieisho to move forward into Daieisho circling around. It only takes a few exchanges before Daieisho notices this and tries to change up his attack. It’s at this point that Takarafuji engages offense, and Daieisho find he is nearly out of territory to work with. The match ends shortly after that. Lesson learned – control the center of the ring, and a strong stance correctly balanced can be a tool to overcoming a vigorous opponent’s energetic attacks.

Mitakeumi defeats Wakatakakage – Mitakeumi recovered after a rough start that saw Wakatakakage claim the attack position from the tachiai. Mitakeumi’s attempted a pull down, and that nearly cost him the match. I do wish he would cut that stuff out. A few moments later, Mitakeumi settles into the fight and gets a proper body position and hand hold on Wakatakakage, and takes him apart. I think this match is a great example of what may fans perceive as Mitakeumi’s inconsistency. He’s an opportunist, and frequently he has a tough time with his second step. Opponents have this figured out, and can goad him into trying to pull, and use Mitakeumi’s release of forward attack to beat him. Fortunately, Mitakeumi prevailed for his 8th win and is kachi-koshi. But yet again his campaign to reach Ozeki are likely reset to zero.

Shodai defeats Asanoyama – Good heavens, that version of Shodai is quite the overpowering monster. Asanoyama’s grip attempt at the tachiai failed, and he found himself turned to the side, with his right flank exposed. Shodai latched on and rapidly dispatched the surprised Ozeki. Excellent sumo, and excellent match plan from Shodai today. He is now the sole leader for the yusho.

Takakeisho defeats Tobizaru – Really impressed with how well Tobizaru did in this match. Takakeisho was trying whatever came to mind, and it was clear that Tobizaru was on defense, but his ability to hang in and stay on his feet was notable. I predict in a year or less, their future matches will have a different tone. Both men end the day 11-3, one win behind Shodai, whom Tobizaru will meet on day 15.

Aki Storylines, Day 13

The Yusho Race

We are down to 2 co-leaders with 11-2 records: Sekiwake Shodai and surprise of the tournament, maegashira 14 Tobizaru. Four additional wrestlers—Ozeki Takakeisho and Asanoyama and high-performing maegashira Wakatakakage and Onosho—are one off the pace at 10-3. Everyone else has at least 5 losses and is mathematically out of contention.

Tomorrow’s bouts could leave us with one leader, or as many as six. In any case, the yusho race will come down to the final day. The key bouts are Takakeisho vs. Tobizaru (first-ever meeting), Asanoyama vs. Shodai (4-3 edge to the Ozeki), Wakatakakage vs. Mitakeumi (first-ever meeting), and Onosho vs. Takanosho (head-to-head tied at 2-2). Should both leaders win, they seem certain to be matched up directly for the championship on senshuraku; other scenarios are too complex to analyze before we know the results of day 14 bouts.

The Named Ranks

Both Ozeki are in the chase group, and could start a Yokozuna challenge with a yusho. Co-leader Shodai has successfully defended his rank, can still hope for an Ozeki promotion and, barring that, should need at most 11 wins to finish a successful run in November. West Sekiwake Mitakeumi (7-6) will remain in san’yaku but still needs one win in the final 2 days to maintain his rank; his Ozeki run is all but over.

Shin-Sekiwake Daieisho (4-9) will drop out of san’yaku along with both Komusubi, Okinoumi and Endo. The number of open san’yaku slots is 2, unless Shodai creates a third by earning promotion, and they seem all but certain to be filled by M1e Terunofuji and M1w Takanosho, both 8-5.

Division Exchanges

With all the active demotion candidates paired up, Shimanoumi, Hoshoryu, and Ichinojo moved closer to safety, all but sealing the demotions of Shohozan, Ishiura, and Kotoshogiku.

Certain to drop to Juryo: Abi and Kyokutaisei.

Hard to see how they’d stay up, even with two wins and favorable banzuke luck: Shohozan, Ishiura.

Needs two wins and some banzuke luck: Kotoshogiku.

Safe with one more win; might already be okay depending on what happens in Juryo: Shimanoumi, Ichinojo, Hoshoryu (Hoshoryu technically needs 2 wins to absolutely guarantee safety).

Moving up to the top division: J2w Kotonowaka (9-4).

Certain to move up with another win, and has probably done enough already: J2e Kotoyuki, 8-5.

Should move up with another win, might move up anyway: J11w Chiyonokuni, 12-1, the Juryo yusho race leader.

As many as six other Juryo rikishi remain in the running for a lucky ticket to the top division.

The Makushita-Juryo exchange picture is complicated by the mandated absences and uncertain banzuke fates of J7 Azumaryu and J14 Fujiazuma, as well as the possibility of sekitori intai. There are three certain openings in Juryo, one created by Kizakiumi’s retirement and the other two by Oki’s 0-13 sekitori debut and J14 Kitaharima’s (5-8) near-record 8th demotion. J12 Daishoho (6-7) needs 1 win for safety.

In the Makushita promotion zone, Ms1e Takagenji (4-3) clinched a return to the sekitori ranks by winning the Darwin match against Ms3w Sakigake (3-4), eliminating the latter from contention. With 3 open slots, Ms1w Jokoryu (4-3) will also move up. The remaining contenders are Ms2e Chiyonoumi (4-3), Ms4w Naya, 4-2, Ms5w Ura (5-1), and Ms5e Kotodaigo (3-3). Kotodaigo will be last in the promotion queue even if he wins his final bout, and will drop out of contention with a loss. Naya visits Juryo tomorrow to take on Daishoho, will Ura presumably set for a similar visit on senshuraku.