Aki Day 15 Preview

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After many twists and turns, we have reached the final day of the 2017 Aki basho. I would like to thank our readers for joining us for the ride, and we are grateful for each of you taking the time to read our musings for the past 15 days. The fall out from Aki is likely to be quite dramatic. The old guard re-asserted their dominance in the second week, but the trend is clear that the younger rikishi are coming into their own. But first day 15 – it comes down to the rikishi still struggling for kachi-koshi, and the final act of the yusho race.

Going into day 15, there are 5 rikishi who will decide their kachi-koshi in their final match. Two of them are San’yaku! The list is: Mitakeumi, Tamawashi, Ichinojo, Chiyoshoma, Okinoumi. Mitakeumi in particular is a tight spot, as he faces Yoshikaze. But the 3 Maegashira who are on the bubble all have relatively easy draws for the final day.

The yusho race was narrowed to a simple contest between Yokozuna Harumafuji and Ozeki Goeido. The final match, of the final day. If Goeido wins, he is champion. If he loses, there is an immediate tie-breaker match between them again to determine the winner. For the scheduling team, this is a remarkable triumph in the face of absolutely miserable conditions. Ideally the yusho will come down to a high-stakes match on the final day. This draws viewers and fans, and creates overwhelming excitement. So my congratulations to that team for succeeding in spite of a difficult situation.

Please note, the Tachiai Yusho Drinking Game is still valid for day 15, if readers choose to participate.

What We Are Watching Day 15

Okinoumi vs. Sadanoumi – Okinoumi is battling for kachi-koshi but lksumo has him safe at the bottom of Makuuchi regardless. Sadanoumi seem to have found his sumo, and has won the two prior days. He is certainly returning to Juryo, but with any luck his injuries will be healed enough that he won’t be there long.

Kaisei vs. Arawashi – Kaisei test match, going up against the higher ranked Arawashi. Kaisei looks lighter, faster and generally in much better condition than any prior 2017 appearance, and I am delighted to see him back in form. With any luck he will continue his improvements and be fordable in Kyushu. Arawashi has been eating his Wheaties, and is generally doing awesomely this basho.

Chiyoshoma vs. Yutakayama – Scheduling throws Maegashira 8 Chiyoshoma a bone by making him face Maegashira 15 Yutakayama for his kachi-koshi on the final day.

Ichinojo vs. Daieisho – Another gift from scheduling, Maegashira 6 Ichinojo faces Maegashira 11 Daieisho for his kachi-koshi deciding match. A win will likely put Ichinojo in the joi-jin for Kyushu. We hope he can find some of his old energy and vigor.

Shodai vs. Endo – Another Endo test match, these are likely helping the banzuke team figure out just how healed up Endo is, and how high they can safely rank him for Kyushu. With Ura and possibly a few others out for a while, they need more kanban rikishi in the public eye to keep sumo compelling.

Asanoyama vs. Chiyotairyu – Likely a test match for Asanoyama, to help judge where to rank him for Kyushu. I am sure sumo-Elvis Chiyotairyu will dismantle him, but it’s important to see how Asanoyama holds up.

Tamawashi vs. Takakeisho – Komusubi Tamawashi needs a win to keep his San’yaku rank alive, and he’s going to have a tough time taking a win from Takakeisho. I have no doubt that Takakeisho is eager to rejoin the joi-jin and revisit his experience with Yokozuna Hakuho.

Mitakeumi vs. Yoshikaze – Yoshikaze has been very docile the past two days, and one has to wonder if he is injured or just throttled back for now. Mitakeumi needs to hope that he’s off his sumo on day 15, or the future Ozeki will lose his coveted Sekiwake rank. Yoshikaze holds a 3-1 advantage in their career statistics.

Goeido vs. Harumafuji – The ultimate match to end the basho, the yusho is on the line, and it’s Japan vs Mongolia. It’s the unreliable Ozeki against a battle scared war machine Yokozuna who never gives up. Harumafuji holds a 31-11 career advantage. If the same Goeido shows up that was on the dohyo day 14, this will be one for the highlight reels.

Aki State of Play, Day 14

Well, probability prevailed. No chaos, alas. Instead, we got the 50% likelihood scenario, with both Goeido and Harumafuji winning, though it was a bit touch-and-go, especially for the former. With Asanoyama (M16) pulled up to fight M3 and rather genki Onosho, he predictably dropped out of the yusho race with a loss. So tomorrow we get Harumafuji-Goeido for all the marbles. I’m not making any predictions, but the Yokozuna has looked like, well, a Yokozuna the last two days.

With Mitakeumi losing and Tamawashi winning, the San’yaku promotion picture stays muddled, with zero, one, or two open slots still possible depending on the outcomes of tomorrow’s Mitakeumi-Yoshikaze sekiwake clash and Tamawashi-Takakeisho. Kotoshogiku has probably locked down the first open komusubi slot, and Onosho the second.

At the bottom of the banzuke, Okinoumi won and is now safe from demotion. Nishikigi and Ishiura both lost, and are on the bubble. Ura is on the bubble as well, though I sincerely hope the NSK keeps him in Makuuchi, given his unfortunate injury.

On to senshuraku!

Day 15: 5 More Yusho

Aki has been so wacky, sometimes it’s easy to forget the other five yusho races happening below Makuuchi! So let’s take stock of where we’re at in the lower divisions, heading into the final day.

Juryo

As has been detailed, the yusho here comes down to the final day’s action and we may see a playoff. Kotoyuki (10-4) has it all in his hands. It’s nice to see both him and his stablemate Kotoshogiku turn it around and post competitive tournaments, having dropped down the banzuke to different degrees. Kotoyuki will almost certainly be back in the top division in Kyushu, but his road to the yusho runs through Abi, who is sitting one win behind, at 9-5.

Aminishiki, Daiamami, Kyokushuho, and Homarefuji are also in the hunt for a playoff should Kotoyuki lose, and none of them face each other. Of those four matches, Daiamami’s bout against Osunaarashi should be especially well contested as a 10th loss for the Egyptian would put his sekitori status in serious jeopardy. To summarize:

Kotoyuki wins vs Abi: yusho
Kotoyuki loses vs Abi: definite playoff, with as many as six rikishi in contention.

Makushita

Two years ago, Kagamio was a mid-table Maegashira fighting against the likes of Tamawashi and Kaisei. This time, he takes the Makushita yusho for Kagamiyama-beya without needing a playoff, courtesy of his win over the younger and much heralded Mitoryu, who may now have a chance to make it to Juryo by Hatsu 2018. This is his second career yusho, having won the Juryo prize back at Natsu 2015.

Sandanme

The only division below Juryo that will definitely go to a playoff, Tachiai regular Enho of Miyagino-beya (fighting at Sandanme 18) will face off against the less heralded Matsuda of Minezaki-beya (fighting at Sandanme 82). Enho’s zensho streak is now at 3 and we will see him in Makushita in a couple months’ time regardless of the outcome. None of Matsuda’s opponents came from the top half of the division and he even gained a win by knocking Jonidan 34 Tokuda from the Jonidan yusho race, so on balance you’d make Enho the strong favorite.

Jonidan

18 year old Narutaki of Isenoumi-beya has won his first yusho from the depths of Jonidan 63. His previous best finish was a playoff loss at Jonokuchi level at Hatsu 2017. He only had to face one opponent in the upper half of the division, but at the same time all of his opponents bar one finished with a kachi-koshi. The yusho was won on Day 13 in a winner-take-all frantic showdown against Hokuyozan which lasted about 30 seconds.

Jonokuchi

My pre-basho pick and Tachiai favorite Wakaichiro’s stablemate Shoji of Musashigawa-beya swept all comers to his 7-0 record, and has wrapped up the yusho. Realistically his stiffest challenge came from fellow debutants Torakio and Sumidagawa.

Day 14 – Get Ready For A Showdown

Showdown

As the smoke clears around the kokugikan, the camera zooms through the carnage, and among the rubble, only two are left. An Ozeki and a Yokozuna. And this dohyo is not big enough for the two of them. Hide your women!* It’s a showdown!

First down was, of course, Asanoyama. Onosho had him from the tachiai. The rank differences were stark and clear. No yusho for the rookie, but he can still earn a sansho, and will deserve it. Onosho still has a shot at double digits and equaling 38th Yokozuna Terukuni’s achievement (three consecutive double digits since advancing to Makuuchi – a record Hakuho didn’t match). Though of course Terukuni kept it up all the way into his Yokozuna-hood. Onosho still needs a good long training with a balance master before he thinks of going double-digits all the way to a white rope…

So we were left with the Ozeki and Yokozuna. And tate-gyoji Inosuke once again amazed the audience with his strange matta decisions. Two matta’s called which, it seems, only Inosuke saw. One thing was clear from both false tachiais – this time the Goeido we saw on the dohyo was the Ozeki, not his wimpy line-dancing identical twin. Once the actual bout started, the Ozeki also proved that he was well capable of keeping his balance in the face of sidesteps – which Takanoiwa tried three times. To use Bruce’s metaphor, Goeido booted up in version 2.1 Pro Edition.

On to the Yokozuna. Mitakeumi was desperate for a win to keep his sekiwake rank. He did manage to secure a rather firm morozashi. But perhaps he would have been wiser to keep the handhold on the Yokozuna’s upper body rather than his mawashi, though it’s not easy with a rival taller than you by 7cm. He held on to the Yokozuna’s mawashi, and the Yokozuna paused and considered the situation. The height difference also means that the Yokozuna has slightly better reach, so he was able to still have a firm grip even though both arms were outside. And with Mitakeumi passive, the Yokozuna took the initiative and pushed for the Yorikiri. If this was Mitakeumi of the previous basho, it might have ended differently. But the Yokozuna was clearly the better man on the dohyo today.

harumameter-day-14

And with this we can safely say that the Yokozuna chased away the shade of the barber, securing what he himself calls a “Yokozuna’s kachi-koshi”. I am still not certain if, after the basho is over, he won’t decide that it’s time to retire anyway, given the huge struggle this basho has been for him. But I don’t think he will be under overt pressure to do so from the Kyokai or the YDC. Especially if he wins the yusho.

So tomorrow on the musubi-no-ichiban, if Goeido wins, he takes the Yusho. If Harumafuji wins, he forces a playoff. I know I’ll be on my chair’s edge, hitting the reload button again and again on the Kyokai’s results page (no live feeds here that I know of, and I’m at work anyway at that time).

But the Yusho race was not the only highlight of day 14. Actually, the arasoi rolled out much as expected, which can’t be said of some of the other torikumi.

Take Tochinoshin vs. Ishiura, for example. Desperate Ishiura tried to pull a henka on Tochinoshin, who managed somehow to brake a few centimeters short of the tawara. Once he turned back, he was pretty pissed off. And decided to find a clever and creative way to punish the small punk. So now he has a new kimarite under his belt (25 so far) – a Harimanage. Congratulations! And if you watch closely, you’ll see Ishiura once again trying to play around with Tochinoshin’s mawashi knot. I think he even got a hold onto the butt-strap. Luckily the bout ended before the wardrobe malfunction. Whew.

If you played Tachiai’s drinking game while watching, I’m pretty sure you’re fairly drunk just on the henkas of the day. The very first started with Takekaze’s attempt on Okinoumi. But like the above, Okinoumi sees the henka, and raises Takekaze a hatakikomi and a make-koshi. I hope Takekaze will not drop out of Makuuchi altogether. I want to see his bout with Aminishiki – “Sumo comes to Jurassic Park”.

And that comedy show between Arawashi and Yoshikaze… Matta! And then both matta and henka together! What does that score in the drinking game? Third time’s the charm… A monoii! Got another bottle of sake? Torinaoshi. That’s it. Yoshikaze has had enough, probably knowing that the next drinking challenge will require him to bleed. Arawashi gets the white star.

Chiyoshoma – Tokushoryu. Another matta. Hick!

Chiyonokuni vs. Kaisei was worth the price of admission. Chiyonokuni starts with a rain of nodowa, which doesn’t faze the Brazilian who advances. The Kokonoe rubber-band finds himself at the tawara, quickly side-steps. But Kaisei really knows where his feet are, and turns right back for a serious pushing attack at Chiyonokuni. This back-and-forth continues. Kaisei even tries an underarm throw, but somehow Chiyonokuni slips away, continues to attack and wins by tsukiotoshi. Bravo to both sides. Chiyonokuni kachi-koshi.

Ichinojo woke up and remembered his days as Sekiwake, apparently. Nishikigi no match, but really, seeing Ichinojo just move forward in a determined fashion is nice. I wish I knew what’s going on behind that sad, big face of his. He has a chance at kachi-koshi tomorrow, though Daieisho is no Nishikigi.

Sadanoumi wins again! This has not been a good basho for the rikishi of the single kanji (Ikioi and Kagayaki). Sadanoumi sidesteps. Kagayaki survives this, but hesitates a second, and Sadanoumi shoots at him as if he was completely healthy.

Shohozan rolls the Ever-round Chiyomaru down off the dohyo like he was a beachball. Kachi-koshi for Shohozan. Hick!

Tamawashi might still secure his kachi-koshi. Which Shodai will not. I was surprised Tamawashi didn’t have him at the Tachiai.

That’s it. Not sure if I was watching sumo, The Benny Hill Show, Abbot and Costello, or High Noon. But… tomorrow is going to be a brand new day! Senshuraku, here we come!

P.S. In Juryo there’s also going to be a showdown. Aminishiki and Homarefuji both decided they don’t want to risk an intra-heya playoff, and dropped out of the Yusho race (at least temporarily). Kotoyuki leads, with a list of 9-5s behind him, but only Abi able to do anything about it. That is, tomorrow Kotoyuki vs. Abi. If Kotoyuki wins, he has the Juryo yusho. If Abi wins – it’s a playoff between them – and any of the 9-5s who wins a 10th white star.

[edited: I didn’t figure the other’s 9-5s into Abi’s possible playoff in the first version].


* Make sure they have Internet and cable where you hide them, though, or you’ll have seriously angry women on your hands.