Author: bradk

Are we really going to see a double Yokozuna promotion?

bradk promotion, Yokozuna (横綱)

On top of all the normal excitement for the first basho of the year, Hatsu 2025 brings the added anticipation of a potential double Yokozuna promotion. With Kotozakura and Hoshoryu both on rope runs, how likely are we to see two new Yokozuna in March?

Taken individually, both men are in range of “normal” pre-Yokozuna careers. Since 1958, wrestlers promoted to Yokozuna have needed an average of 32 tournaments in makuuchi to achieve the rank. Kotozakura is in his 28th tournament and Hoshoryu is only one behind at 27. Both rikishi are in the average range of others promoted to Yokozuna.

ShikonaBasho to Promotion
Taiho11
Futahaguro12
Asashoryu13
Kitanoumi15
Wajima15
Akebono15
Kashiwado19
Hakuho19
Chiyonofuji22
Hokutoumi23
Tochinoumi23
Sadanoyama25
Takanohana26
Wakanohana (56)27
Onokuni28
Wakanohana (45)31
Terunofuji31
Asashio35
Tamanoumi36
Kitanofuji37
Takanosato43
Kakuryu44
Asahifuji45
Musashimaru46
Harumafuji47
Wakanohana (66)47
Kotozakura57
Mienoumi60
Kisenosato73

In the case of Hoshoryu, a promotion would be somewhat surprising only because of how precisely “on average” he has been. As seen in the table below, The Nephew has been right on pace with the number of tournaments spent at every level. A top performance and promotion in January would be 4 tournaments early!

 

Tournaments at rank

 OzekiSekiwakeKomusubiMaegashiraTotal
Average*13.35.93.29.431.9
Kotozakura6341528
Hoshoryu963927
  • 1958-Present

If either Kotozakura or Hoshoryu earn promotion, it would be unremarkable. But what about both? While it has only happened in 1961 and 1970, the two have something in their favor. In both previous double-promotions, the rikishi were on similar career arcs to one another. In January 1970, Tamanoumi was promoted after his 36th Makuuchi tournament. Kitanofuji joined him after his 37th tournament. Similarly, in September 1961, Taiho was promoted after only his 11th tournament. While Kashiwado got the rope after his 19th basho. The 8 basho gap seems significant; but only 8 men have achieved the rank of Yokozuna in under 20 tournaments: so they are in a similar grouping. The 28 tournaments for Kotozakura and 27 for Hoshoryu fit the pattern of rikishi at similar stages in their career enjoying simultaneous promotion.

In the modern area, there has been one joint promotion of fast risers in 1961 and one joint promotion of slightly slower than average champions in 1970. Perhaps we are due for a pair of slightly faster than average ascenders in 2025. But it seems highly unlikely.

In a fitting twist, the sumo spirits seem to have other pairs ready to ruin the party. At the top Terunofuji is set to appear and reassert his dominance. An even greater threat is probably Onosato. Right below the Ozeki, the Waka- brothers will be looking to continue their rise. And further down still, Takerufuji and Hakuoho seem set to rack up early wins against overmatched opponents in hopes of playing late spoilers.

January 12th can’t get here soon enough!

Are we really in the dark ages of sumo?

bradk Commentary , , ,

Last week I looked at the 2024 yusho year and tried to situate it historically through focusing on the wins and rank of the yusho winner. I concluded by observing 2024 continued a trend beginning in 2019 of below-average win totals and a below-average rank of the champion. Some responded that I was being negative about the quality of sumo. Similarly, some said the metric is only useful for making assertions about dominance, not quality.

What I commented under that post, I repeat here: I was not attempting to be negative about the current state of sumo. Anything I write about Makuuchi division sumo is written with the understanding I am writing about the 40 or so best athletes in their sport. Every other month we are treated to the 40 best men in the world competing against one another. What other sport can say that? We are spoiled.

As for the critique of dominance versus quality: it is accurate…to a point. I don’t think it is unreasonable to assert a Yokozuna is a qualitatively better rikishi than a komusubi. I feel pretty confident that 14 wins is qualitatively better than 12 wins. If I had the choice between watching a year 6 komusubi yusho with 12 wins or 6 yokozuna yusho with 14 wins; I’d take the latter. In 2024, we basically saw the former.

So is the current state of sumo so bleak? No.

A shortcoming of the championship quality metric is the built-in dominance factor: it does not consider anyone else but the champion. Is there a way to evaluate the competitiveness of a basho, or an entire year of basho?

A simple way would be to compare the difference between the amount of wins between the yusho winner and the runner up. We could call this yusho differential: yusho wins minus jun-yusho wins=yusho differential. A small yusho differential (YD) would seem to indicate a more competitive yusho since it would mean the winner and runner-up had a similar number of wins. I am arguing that a 13-3 (Y)-12-3(JY) is more competitive than a 15-0(Y)-12-3(JY).

In a yusho year we would expect a YD close to 6 since the champion usually has at least one more win than the runner up. In fact, plotting the YD since 1958 this is what we see:

Most years, the YD ends up at 8 (12 times), closely followed by 9 (10 times) and 7 (9 times). So, a YD of 7 to 9 is average and indicates the champion winning 1 or 2 more matches than the runner up. Anything below this 7-9 range would indicate a more competitive basho and a higher total would indicate a less competitive basho.

Evaluating basho years this way, 1997 was clearly the most competitive ever with a YD of 2. Playoffs decided 4 of the basho that year: highlighted by March when there was a 4-way playoff! At the other end of the spectrum, 1984 and 2013 saw the champion outpace the runner up by 15 wins. 2013 may have been exciting for fans of Hakuho and Harumafuji, but probably not so much for others.

How did 2024 stack up in this measure of competitiveness? With the help of 2 playoffs, the YD for 2024 was 5. And believe it or not, this year was the third consecutive year with a YD of 5. We have had 3 consecutive years of basho with multiple playoffs (two in ’22 and ‘24; and three in ‘23). The YD metric indicates we are in a very competitive- some might even say, exciting- era of sumo! The past three years have been very competitive with yusho frequently coming down to the final matches of day 15. The only span of 3+ years that can equal this level of competitiveness was 1997-2001:

Year YD
1997 2
1998 8
1999 4
2000 6
2001 4

Numbers don’t tell the whole story. Numbers will never tell us which Shodai is going to show up any given Tuesday. But numbers can help us tell a better story. Considering yusho-differential helps us appreciate the competitiveness of the past several years- one of the most competitive time periods in recent history. The lack of dominant yokozuna/ozeki performances have made way for closer yusho races.  What excitement will 2025 bring?

2024: The Yusho Year in Review

bradk Commentary, Yūshō (優勝) , ,

Ozeki Kotozakura made good on his potential and wrapped up 2024 with a 14-1 record and his first yusho. In doing so, he became the fourth man to capture a title in 2024: joining Yokozuna Terunofuji in January (13-2) and July (12-3); M17 Takerufuji in March (13-2); and K/S Onosato in May (12-3) and September (13-2). In all those ranks and records we find a way to historically situate a yusho-year.

A basic way to evaluate a year of yusho victories is tallying the number of wins by the champion. Since 1958 (excluding 2011 and 2020 when there were only 5 basho) the average number of wins for the six yusho is 81.5. By that metric, any total greater than 82 wins is above average and anything below 81 is below average.

In 2024 the win total was 77: well below average. Since 1958, only five years saw a lower win total (’61, ‘75, ’99,’22, ’23) while 2 years saw an equal number of wins (’72, ’03).

Another way to gage the strength of each championship is to consider the rank of the champion. We could call this rank-quality (RQ). For RQ I awarded 5 points for every yokozuna championship; 3 for every ozeki; 2 for every sekiwake; and one for every komosubi. For every maegashira championship I subtracted the rank value of the rikishi. In this system, the highest RQ value for one year would be 30: representing a yokozuna (5 points) winning each of the 6 basho.

The RQ for 2024 was -1. Terunofuji’s two wins for 10 points; plus 3 for Onosato’s wins as a komosubi (1 point) and sekiwake (2 points); plus 3 for Kotozakura’s win as an ozeki; minus 17 points for Takerufuji’s win at M17. The average RQ for a basho-year is just under 21.5. Once again, in 2024 the average rank of yusho winners was well below average.

It is now a rather simple exercise to add the annual total of championship wins and the rank quality. The highest possible score in such a system would be 120: this represents a yokozuna winning each basho with a 15-0 record. We might call this a championship quality (CQ) score. The average CQ score since 1958 is 103. The CQ score for 2024 was 76: 77 wins + -1 RQ. A 76 RQ score basically translates to an M1 winning each basho of the year with 12 or 13 wins. Not exactly compelling sumo.

In short, 2024 continued an era of mediocre yusho years.

2024 was below average for the number of wins and the rank of winners. This has been the case every year since 2019. The average number of wins in a year is 81.5. The average rank quality is 21.5. The average sum of these numbers- the championship quality- is 103. Since 2019 numbers look like this:

Year Wins (81.5) Rank quality (21.5)

Championship quality (103)

2019

 80 11

91

2020

66

 -24

42

2021

80

 19

99

2022

74

 -3

71

2023

74

 18

92

2024

77

 -1

76

 

Again, in 2020 there were only 5 basho, so that year’s totals are not considered in the averages. Even so, every year since 2019 has been below average in every metric.  This is not only a six year lull; it is an historical 6 year lull. The 74 wins in 2022 and again in 2023 represent the lowest total for any year since 1958. The rank quality of -3 in 2022 is the worst for any year of the six-basho era. The -1 RQ of 2024 is only “bettered” (ehhh…worsened?) by the -2 RQ of 1991. The 71 CQ of 2022 and 76 CQ of 2024 are the worst 2 scores of any year.

There has never been a span of yusho as weak as 2019-2024. 1972-1976 and 1998-2003 had similar lulls. But in both periods, there were at least some categories that were average to above average.

Year

 Wins (81.5) Rank quality (21.5)

Championship quality (103)

1972

 77 3

80

1973

84

 26

110

1974

78

 21

99

1975

76

 17

93

1976

 81 21

102

1998

 79 7

86

1999

76

 20

96

2001

 81 4

85

2001

79

 19

98

2002

 80 24

104

2003

77

 22

99

 

The championship quality from 2019-2024 has been consistently, completely, and historically below average. When you consider just the rank and record of the yusho winner, 2019-2024 is the worst span of yusho quality in the six basho era.

Will 2025 bring more of the same? There is reason to look forward with hope. If Takerufuji duplicates his success, it will certainly be at a better rank than M17. Onosato is now an ozeki. Kotozakura is fishing for tuna in January. Any basho won by these men in 2025 will improve the RQ and CQ score for the year. Hopefully they (and others!) can push each other to greater heights. Even if those “greater heights” only represent a return to normalcy.