Hey all, I’m back. Let’s talk about how the Aki results are likely to reshuffle the rankings for the November basho.
The named ranks
This is largely straightforward. At Yokozuna, title-winning Onosato will remain on the East side, ahead of absent Hoshoryu. The Ozeki order will rearrange according to their results: Aonishiki at O1e, followed by Kotozakura at O1w and Kirishima at O2e. The two Sekiwake successfully defended their ranks, but there’s a question about their order. Will 11-4 Fujinokawa leapfrog 8-7 Atamifuji? Unlike Yokozuna and Ozeki, there’s no clear rule about this, and the decisions in recent years have been inconsistent. Then we should have Churanoumi making his san’yaku debut at K1e, and Yoshinofuji returning to the Komusubi rank after a one-basho absence. Based on the odd decisions about the order of san’yaku rikishi on the September banzuke, I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of Yoshinofuji on the East side instead.
Upper maegashira
There should be no argument about Asanoyama taking the top maegashira spot, which would place him in a great position for a san’yaku return in January. After that, there is a gap, with no results that would earn a rank higher than M3. Takayasu would be first in the queue for M1w, but he had a losing record at M2e, so he is not eligible. It seems like the only real choice is to over-promote M4w Fujiryoga (8-7), who’s never dropped in rank since his March 2025 debut as Makushita tsukedashi. And then it gets tricky. We have a combination of dropping and rising rikishi whose records place all of them around M4/M5, and so they could be arranged in a lot of different orders. In addition to the aforementioned 7-8 Takayasu, the make-koshi group consists of the the two dropping Komusubi—Hakunofuji and Daieisho, both 5-10—the M1 Koto brothers, who also only managed 5 wins apiece, and M3e Gonoyama (6-9). The risers are M7e Fujiseiun (9-6), M8e Takerufuji (9-6), M8w Hiradoumi (9-6), and M9e Ura (10-5). The only definite here is the relative order of the Komusibi, the M1s, and the 9-6 trio; everything else is up for grabs.
Exchanges between Makuuchi and Juryo
The order of the rikishi in danger of dropping from the top division is as follows M16e Wakanosho (absent), M12e Wakatakakage (absent), M17e Shonannoumi (3-12), M14e Tobizaru (4-11), M11w Shodai (3-12), M14w Chiyoshoma (5-10). Conversely, the promotion queue in Juryo is J1e Dewanoryu (10-5), J3e Tamawashi (10-5), yusho winner J6e Kitanowaka (11-4), J5w Arashifuji (10-5), J1w Kyokukaiyu (8-7), J2e Daiseizan (8-7). The first 5 exchanges are pretty much set in stone. The only real uncertainty is whether Chiyoshoma has a very lucky escape, denying Daiseizan (or, less likely. Arashifuji). Tobizaru hasn’t been in Juryo since he made his Makuuchi debut 6 years ago at Aki 2020. But that’s nothing compared to Shodai, whose top-division run dates all the way back to his debut over a decade ago, in January 2016! The promotions would mark top-division debuts for Dewanoryu, Kyokukaiyu, and Arashifuji, as well as welcome returns for Iron Man Tamawashi (after a two-basho absence) and Kitanowaka, for the first time since a January 2025 injury sent him tumbling down the banzuke.
Exchanges between Juryo and Makushita
As I noted in a comment on Andy’s post, mega-prospect Asahifuji should be exchanged with Tochitaikai, and Ryuho with Nishikigi. The first is 100%, the second is more like 90%. The next exchange would be Ikarigata with Hatsuyama, but there’s almost no chance of it happening. Even less likely is Tamashoho getting exchanged with another mega-prospect, Tenshoyama, who was ranked outside the promotion zone and needed a 7-0 record. Asahifuji’s promotion after only five basho will tie the record for the fastest rise from Jonokuchi to sekitori, most recently accomplished by Enho. We’ll find out what actually happens here in a day or two, unlike the rest of the banzuke, where we’ll have to wait until October 26.
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It‘s stunning how lost the high Maegashira ranks appear. Again, one must say. And again the Komusubi did not live up to the expectations. Is it so impossible to survive there? To keep the whole thing more composed, how could it be secured to keep credible rank tenders in that zone? Is it just decisive who is tougher in ignoring their injury? Would changes in the method of bout planning help? Or do they go by ‚the more traffic, the more excitement‘ ?What do you think?
It’s been a bit more than 10 years since i am following Sumo and i remember from memory that…wayyyy back then at that time, when we had Hakuho and Harumafuji duking it out every basho for the cup and we had a very crowded Ozeki rank with Kakuryu, Kisenosato, Kotooshu and Kotoshogiku, Sekiwake, Komusubi and M1 to M5 were generally always getting literally STOMPED on and getting flatten more than an Okonomiyaki every…single…basho !!! It was inevitable ! The Yokozuna and Ozeki corp for quite a while there were just that much dominant. Raking over 10 wins each almost all the time, when Hakuho were not chaining Zensho Yusho again and again.
What i mean is….when you start to have and have a really crowded and really strong/dominant upper San’yaku like that, they like serve as a “natural barrier” to all the other rikishi that want to rise up, squashing them back down into a makekoshi all the time. Rikishi are paired usually during a basho with other rikishi that are around their rank. Up and down. But since the Yokozuna and Ozeki are at the top of the pyramid, it’s not like they can fetch peoples above them. So the only one left for them is the M1 to M5 until they start to fight among themselves toward the end of the basho.
For a few years (since Hakuho and Kakuryu retire i think), we had like a power vacuum left with their departure. (That’s what happen when a Lion king is just too strong and no aspirant were able to dethrone him.) For a while, we had almost a different rikishi winning the cup each basho. And seeing even lower Maegashira being able to win the yusho.
But slowly now, we are starting to see more dominant rikishi solidifying their foothold in the upper San’yaku. With Onosato, Kirishima, Aonishiki and Hoshoryu. (and a few rising other) When they are healthy, that is.
So slowly, i think we will start to re-see again that pattern that we saw quite a couple of years ago were upper maegashira will start to get stomped again in the “meat grinder” as we sometime call it.
Exactly. Those ranks were known as “the zone of death” and “the meat grinder” for a reason. If the named ranks are doing what they’re supposed to and racking up wins, someone has to take the losses. Anyone strong enough to consistently survive up in the joi maegashira will be a san’yaku regular themselves before very long and beat up on those who take their place.
Thank you for explaining it so patiently! I‘ve been three years watching. There was no Hakuho any more…
At the risk of sounding too dismissive: Somebody has to lose among the top 16 active rikishi.
Clear even for me :), but how would you prevent that the installed losers always are poor overpromoted guys? I’m worried for Fujiryoga, I think it’s too early to get him stomped on.
But Fujiryoga already had almost a complete top 16 schedule this basho? He was #16 himself and all his opponents were from the top 18 (he missed out on Aonishiki and Fujinokawa). If he is a guy you don’t consider credible enough to be ranked up there, I’m honestly not sure what your expectations are for those ranks.
I’d prefer more experienced wrestlers in the higher ranks. The machine burns them too fast, in my opinion.
And experienced rikishi who actually belong in that part of the rankings are exactly those who keep getting losing records up there and then bouncing back with winning records lower down. Again, I really don’t understand which wrestlers you actually think should be ranked there. Do they even exist?
I’ll continue pondering. Nice of you to answer, thank you very much!
There’s already a bias toward those at the higher ranks with losing records to stay. Hakunofuji, Daieisho, Kotoshoho, Kotoeiho, Takayasu, and Gonoyama will all be in the top 16 or close again, but that’s still enough to fill all the slots. As a big Fujiryoga fan since his debut, I hope he can hold his own, or at least gain valuable experience for the next time he’s up here.
Fujiryoga certainly exceeded my expectations – suggests his sumo can translate to the higher ranks (he’ll probably go 2-13 next basho to prove me wrong!)
With Tamawashi getting almost guarantee promoted back to makuuchi, will that make him the record holder of being the oldest rikishi to get promoted back to the upper division after having fall down from it ?
Absolutely, he’s 41, turning 42 in November, and the current record is Aminishiki at 39.
Naja, Wunder geschehen immer wieder. So gehe ich zurück zu Haru 2000. die Zeit der 4 Yokozuna, der 3 Ozeki, der 3 Sekiwake und 2 Komusubi. Einer der 2 Komusubi wurde einer der erfolgreichsten Ozeki. Und der letzte, M14e hat gewonnen. Damals hat Eurosport noch in Deutschland die Kämpfe übertragen. Wie gesagt, Wunder geschehen immer wieder, und ich freue mich auf das nächste Wunder im Sumo, seit 1992.
Hier das Basho:
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=200003#M
U may have noticed that this is a site who’s language is English.
Therefore it would be nice if U had translated your comments.
Or are U suggesting everyone hear should do it?
Sorry, i thinking the software making by themself to translate is not perfekt. My Englisch is not perfekt. i want to learn and gif my best. For the next.
You seen the Basho?
Yes and not only in the SumoDB, but like U on Eurosport. I couldn’t believe that Oho‘s future daddy won the yusho against such competition. But that was of course the problem. The named ranks were so strong, they took each other out of the race.
U can’t compare different times of the sport, of course, but my feeling is that this banzuke was one of the strongest ever. The uber yokozuna Takanohana, his brother and the two heavy Hawaiians as grand champions and then Dejima, Chiyotaikai, Takanonami, Tochiazuma, Musoyama and Kaio, who all won at least one yusho in their career. Unbelievable!
thanks for replay. i see all fights. fantastic time, and last Takatoriki won as M14e.
Danke!!
Auf Deutsch, (Bin bei Dir).
Thanks. I think that translation software is quite good nowadays.
This your time to watching the most Sanyaku-Rankings the last Time. Bye.
I know you’re right but I can’t help but wish they’d break with precedent and actually demote the folks with demotable records.
Yeah, I just try to predict what they’ll do. I’d make very different decisions if I were in charge.
i hope to untersdant it, but wath is with this “die Leute mit demotierbaren Platten tatsächlich degradieren”.This is Negativ. Every Rikishi at first earn respekt. Nothing more, sinth 1992, this my time watching Sumo.
Where do you believe Kagayaki will land? It was great to see him in such good form.
I have him landing at J3w, with quite high confidence.
Kagayaki?
?
J!!!! not M!!!! fixed, thanks
By my count we’ll have 6 former sanyaku rikishi in Juryo next time, including two former Ozeki – I wonder what the highest is?
Mitakeumi falls, (leider auf DE die Kaulkbappe), sorry, his time as Sanyaku is over. Taking an Intai is best Solution, i think. i hope this english is enough.
Mitakeumi hasn’t been in sanyaku since 2022. He’s at (or near) the end of his career (as you suggest).
Thank You.
i love every Rikishi. There are fighthing for every one, and gif them best. But this time is over. Nice to his fights for the run to Ozeki, its time. For this English, thinking, stupidt German.
Aonishiki, next Komsubi: Kusano, now calling Yoshinofuji, and Churanoumi.
Kumosubi: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12884 and https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12320.
Ranking the higher rank losers among the lower ran winners is always fun. I always guess Gonoyama wrong, and of course he’s right in the middle of that M4/M5/M6 pileup. Which probably means I’ll get them all wrong :)
I’ll come up with some scheme and then the Banzuke committee will probably go straight by the numbers with simple tie breakers.
Regarding Wakatakakage (who has the ring name which is the most fun to say out loud): surely it must be an odd situation when your most recent bout was a championship winning playoff, and your subsequent one takes place in a lower division. Has anyone else gone from top division champ to relegated with no in-between?
Takerufuji
Indeed, he is the only one:
Query:
basho 1: makuuchi division; yusho or yusho-playoff
basho 2: 0 wins
basho 3: juryo division
Result:
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=3&n_basho=3&form1_y=on&form1_yd=on&form1_m=on&form2_wins=0&form3_j=on
Yes, he is the only one. But if there had been another one with let‘s say one win in the second basho, U would have missed him. Therefore it would be better to give no criteria at all for the second basho. Maybe U didn’t know that’s allowed?
Did you not read the question that was asked? It was specifically about not fighting any other bouts between the makuuchi yusho and the return to action in juryo.
I did, but two days ago and unfortunately not again today.
Sorry about that, jmotzi.
But that means one additional criteria would have to be 0 losses, too, or am I wrong again?
Yes 0 wins AND 0 losses would guarantee no bouts, only absences. My use of 0 wins without specifying losses would have allowed a 0-15 record if it had existed, which is indeed different than 0-0-15 which is a total absence.
i hope for wonder, maby Mita, why not.
I kinda see Chiyoshoma vs Shodai as a playoff bout, so thinking Chiyosoma might get that extra luck..
I am thankfull for this site and the owners and mods, good luck , see you again perhaps on next Basho
As for aonishiki, well it’s always nice to see him battle each basho, I am not rushed to see him as yokozuna, I’d rather see him perform with exceptional sumo art instead of a typical wakatenage or yorikiri or other commonly seen moves we usually yokozunas perform
Regards from the other side of the map . Taurofuji 😄
P.s. u guys know my view on ura and his knee supports, I still hope sumo authorities ban them soon << just the supports not the rikishi >>, there would be no chance such a traditional “sport” would ever allow such things if it wasn’t the several wjite bandages that mask hide them underneath