Congratulations to Kirishima on his third yusho and impending Ozeki re-promotion. Let’s take a look at how the Haru results might reshuffle the rankings for Natsu.
Counting Kirishima, we’ll have two Yokozuna and three Ozeki, one of whom, Aonishiki (a shocking 7-8), will need a winning record in May to hold his rank. Sanyaku will expand to 9, and M17w will disappear. Two sanyaku slots will be vacated by Kirishima going up and K1e Wakamotoharu (a disastrous 3-12) going down. K1w Atamifuji (9-6) looks set to follow his Komusubi debut with a Sekiwake debut. The other three spots should be filled by S1w Takayasu (7-8), whose last-day win over Atamifuji should be just enough to stay in the named ranks, M1e Wakatakakage (8-6-1), and M5w Kotoshoho (11-4), although there’s room for debate about how to order them. M2e Fujinokawa (8-7) and M4w Takanosho (9-6) just miss out and should occupy M1. With a 9-man sanyaku, the joi line only goes down to M4e, and I expect these ranks to be filled out by Yoshinofuji, Ichiyamamoto, Hiradoumi, Oho and Daieisho, although M10e Gonoyama (10-5) could also be in the conversation.
Key question marks for the rest of the maegashira ranks are how far Wakamotoharu and M2w Churanoumi (4-11) will drop, as well as how far the rikishi promoted from Juryo will rise. Speaking of which, there are only two clear promotion cases: J1e Ryuden (9-6) and J3w Wakanosho (11-4), who is set to make his top-division debut. It looks like J3e Daiseizan (8-7) will suffer his 5th straight narrow miss. So two rikishi will drop from Makuuchi. The first is absent Midorifuji, though we are more concerned about his health. The second will likely be M6w Onokatsu (1-6-8), whose one win (by hansoku, no less!) probably won’t be enough to save him. The only other candidate is newcomer M17e Fujiryoga (7-8), who will be lucky to hang on to the bottom of the banzuke by the skin of his teeth.
There’s more movement between Juryo and Makushita. Dropping out of the sekitori ranks are J12w Tsurugisho (0-15), whom I fully expect to call it quits, J13e Shimazuumi (2-9-4), J14w Kotokuzan (4-11), and newcomer J13w Fujitensei (5-10), the Ms60TD high-schooler who frequently looked overmatched at this level. Taking their places will be Ms2w Okaryu (6-1), Ms2e Hakuyozan (5-2), Ms1w Tochitaikai (4-3), and, saving the best for last, Ms4e Enho (5-2)! If this is correct, Enho will have reached his longstanding goal of 30 sekitori basho, qualifying him for elder status should he wish to remain in the sumo association after he hangs up his mawashi.
We’ll find out about the Juryo promotions in a couple of days, but the rest of the rankings won’t come out until April 27. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
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I’m thrilled for Enho but Okaryu, too. He seems like a good bloke there at Tatsunami. I wonder how many instances exist where demotable rikishi preserve their top division status because of weakness in the top of Juryo.
Just looking at m17 sticking around after 7-8, it’s a regular occurrence
Look no further than the Nishikifuji incident of 2024, when next in line was 9-6 Tamashoho at J6. https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202407
I hope that Fujitensei will come back with better intent later in his career. Juryo entry at only 19 is already impressive, and as long as he is well coached he should bounced back stronger.
My guess regarding top division demotions is that Onokatsu will survive by hanging onto the bottom of the division with his fingernails, and Fujiryoga suffer the demotion. There’s very little in it between them, really.
Lastly, thanks for all the memories, Tsurugisho.
Fighting for 15 days and almost scraping together a kachi koshi in your debut basho is worth a lot more than one “win” by hansoku.
Indeed. I also have Fujiryoga in at the bottom rung and Onokatsu out.
For now, I have Wakamotoharu at M6E and Churanoumi at M7W,
Wakanosho at M14W and Ryuden at M15W.
For Sanyaku I have Atamifuji (S1E), Wakatakakage (S1W), Takayasu (K1E) & Kotoshoho (K1W).
For the 1 loss crew in the M ranks, I took my hints from last time and left all at current rank unless there was a reason to push them down (I found none).
Agree with you on M1-M4.
Sounds good. Only, U have to send it this time…
Why not now btw, the results of the basho won’t change anymore.
If you’re worried about changing your mind after thinking things over again — do not, you can just resend your updated entry later under the same name and it will replace the first one.
One proofreading thing: the Juryo guys’ ranks are given as M rather than J.
Otherwise, thanks for the rundown
Ah, yes. Ryuden, Wakanosho, and Daiseizan. Well, technically, they’re listed as maegashira on the actual banzuke…./s I’m kidding and being a smart ass. I’ll see if I can get in and update that later.
can it be possible that they drop both Onokatsu and Onokatsu and promote J3 Daiseizan (8-7）?
typo : I meant Fujiryoga and Onokatsu
If Daiseizan was at J2 it could be possible to swap him with Fujiryoga (if they really felt like it), at J3 it’s a definite no.
I agree but with the restriction, that they still could do if they felt like it.
Fujiryoga is definitely demotable and therefore replaceable by the juryo who is nearest to being promotable (as it happened back in Nagoya 1991).
Yes, demotion has happened quite often to 7-8 bottom rank guys, but it’s been in favor of juryo rikishi who at the least calculate to J1. As the Nishikifuji incident has recently taught us, they will only think of demoting someone if their projected rank is at least the same or lower than the potential replacement’s, which is not the case here.
As I said above and though U’d obviously prefer to ignore it: the exchange of a J3 with 8-7 and a M16 (then the lowest rank) with 7-8 has happened before and therefore can always happen again. But I still agree that it would be a big surprise (though somehow Daiseizan would earn it because he was hankaed in his exchange bout by Oshoumi).
henka-ed
Whatever happened once in 1991 is quite irrelevant 35 years later, even more so after Takayasu keeping komusubi with 6-9.
There were periods in banzuke-making when they prioritized demoting demotable rikishi and pulled up whatever juryo KK they needed to make it happen. But that’s not the mode they’ve been in the last few years…
If U say so!
I choose a case with exactly 7-8 vs 8-7 like now in the hope that U would see, but contrary to your argumentation both Hiradoumi and Ichiyamamoto reached a virtual J3 and were still promoted; and this was during the last five years…
Both Chiyomaru and Hiradoumi calculated to J3 — same rank, and Akua was at J5, 2 lower than Ichiyamamoto.
Also, I can similarly make a case for opening extra komusubi and sekiwake slots based on the committee being a lot more generous on those up to the early 2000s, but, apart from the shocking Hatsu 2023 banzuke, unless somebody really forces their hand it’s not happening.
As they can do almost everything they feel like (see the recent Takayasu surprise) and as they have done it before, it’s definitely not a „definite no“ but a high probability no.
I was impressed that the call of the barge was enough to motivate Mitakeumi to a winning record this basho. He would have been safe, regardless, but now I’m curious to see how he does the next time he mounts the dohyo.
I agree with Briskly’s comments about Fujitensei. We sumo fans can be more brutal about our opinions on rikishi than the banzuke committee at times and it’s important to remember how young he is and his achievements already. We’ve been spoiled by youngsters with the “incorrect haircut” appearing in the upper divisions over the past year or so, honestly.
I’m interested to see the attendee list for Jungyo mainly to see who is and isn’t on the list. For example, I would be astonished to see Wakamotoharu, Abi, and Hakunofuji there. But, we’ll see I guess.
For rikishi who made obvious progress this basho, I’ll nominate Fujinokawa (that throw on Senshuraku was a beauty!), Asahakuryu (who had him at 10-5? Not me!), and Shishi. A lot of people might be surprised by the last name on that list, especially because of his 6-9 record, but it’s obvious that he’s attempting to move up to the next level in his sumo, but he’s not there yet. I will also give him and his Oyakata credit for not just turning him into a “lumbering leaner” like Ichinojo before his intai. It’s the path with more risk, to be sure, but I much prefer challenging people to improve their sumo skill sets so they can go farther instead of teaching someone to “just be big”. I’m honestly not sure if the latter is even possible as a viable strategy anymore in the upper divisions.
Lastly, a warm and hearty congratulations and welcome back to Juryo for Enho! Achieving what he has already is an impressive thing to do. But, it will be interesting to see how far up the banzuke he moves and how long he continues to compete. He’s been fighting so hard to get to where he is now, so he has to pick another goal to keep moving forward.
Just to be clear, if Enho is not given the Miyagino kabu in due course we fly to Japan and kick butt. There’s cultural sensitivity and then there’s outright malfeasance.
Does anyone (other than me) see the possibility of Miyagino oyakata = Enho owing the kabu, but that other/ older Miyagino = Hakuho as the power ruling from the shadows ??
I doubt it because of the current “stain” on the Miyagino name based on Hakuho’s actions. If that heya is allowed to reestablish itself, it’s going to be under some sort of restrictions and everything there is going to be gone through with a fine toothed comb on a regular basis. I would also be shocked to see Hahuko associated in any way with the heya in that situation as well.
I honestly think that the only reason that Enhō is the only ex-Miyagino rikishi to not change names has to do with the Miyagino kabu… I believe he’ll be the one to receive it when he retires… he was Hakuhō’s first recruit (while still Yokozuna at the time).
I can’t imagine that Enho keeping his shikona has anything to do with the kabu situation, neither via the shikona itself (because it’s just irrelevant for that) nor through the connection to Hakuho that it represents (because Hakuho can’t influence where the kabu goes, beyond ex-Asahifuji’s pinky swear that he’ll give it to some Miyagino guy if feasible).
In any case, Hakuho’s first personal recruit was Daikiho, half a decade before Enho.
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=11989
I do want to pipe in with the fact that I had the honor of meeting Daikiho when he was a part of Konishiki’s Sumo+Sushi tour. Daikiho held my glasses while Tōōyama threw me. It was an absolute honor. 😂
Enho is just too popular with huge name recognition to arbitrarily change it to some Randomifuji, this whole thing about even discussing renaming him may just have been a PR stunt. Fans never forgot about Enho and there were always several of his towels present in the crowd even in Jonidan.
Now isn‘t it super nice to have Enho back to sekitori and Kirishima back to ozeki? Time to celebrate!
[…] Natsu Banzuke Musings (lksumo at Tachiai. March 22, […]
Stewing over my guesses for the Natsu Banzuke.
Can’t seem to over-promote and under-demote enough and still come up with a reasonable roster.
It’s pretty easy down to M4, but below that it’s close your eyes and throw the darts over your shoulder as you’re facing away from the board.
Over-promoting the KK’s, even the 8-7’s seems to be the order of the day. I’ve under-demoted every MK except the very bottom of the banzuke.
An interesting submission is still pending, got lots of time to tweak this one.