Here’s what to look for on the final day.
The Yusho Race
Only the two final bouts matter: Aonishiki (11-3) vs. Kotozakura and the Yokozuna clash between Onosato (11-3) and Hoshoryu (11-3). A win by Aonoshiki gets him a spot in a playoff, while a loss eliminates him from contention. His Ozeki chances may also hang in the balance—the shimpan department has announced that they’ll hold a special meeting to discuss a potential promotion after the basho. The head-to-head favors the Sekiwake 2-1. The outcome of the last regulation bout will either determine the other playoff participant or the outright winner. The head-to-head in regulation favors Hoshoryu 7-1, with Onosato also winning their most recent meeting in the September playoff.
Sanyaku
K1e Takanosho (5-9) will vacate his spot. S1w Oho (6-8) and K1w Takayasu (7-7) both need final-day wins to stay in the named ranks. And as discussed above, there is a chance that Aonishiki’s spot could open up via promotion. So we could have anywhere between one and four new sanyaku members. M2e Kirishima (10-4) should be a lock for the first open spot, regardless of his day 15 result. The other contenders are M2w Wakamotoharu (8-6), M5e Yoshinofuji (9-5), M3w Ura (8-6), and perhaps M8e Ichiyamamoto (10-4). Yoshinofuji fights Takayasu tomorrow in what looks like an exchange bout. Kirishima faces Ura, and Wakamotoharu takes on Ichiyamamoto.
Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges
Since Andy asked:
- Makuuchi demotion queue: Meisei, Shonannoumi, Sadanoumi, Oshoumi, Asakoryu.
- Juryo promotion queue: Asahakuryu, Asanoyama, Hatsuyama, Kotoeiho, Fujiseiun, Daiseizan.
Meisei, Shonannoumi, and Sadanoumi are fully booked on the Juryo barge, with nonrefundable tickets. In their place, Asanoyama will make his long-awaited return to the top division, where he’ll be joined by his heya-mate Asahakuryu and by Hatsuyama, both of whom will be making their Makuuchi debuts. The final two spots will almost certainly go to the winners of the two day 15 crossover bouts that pit Kotoeiho against Asakoryu and Oshoumi against Fujiseiun. Daiseizan has rapidly dropped from first to 6th in the promotion queue and should be out of luck even with a win—which would be a rare miss for a 10-5 J3, but there’s no room at the inn.
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I‘m surprised that U handle the promotion of Asahakuryu, Asanoyama and Hatsuyama as a fact. I thought that Kotoeiho could take one of the three certain spots if he won and one of the others lost.
True, but if he wins, Asakoryu becomes demotable, and all four of the contenders would have good enough cases that they won’t keep him.
Darn, why didn’t I see that, although I’m hoping for Henkakoryu’s demotion? Sorry.
Haha, no worries!
Asanoyama was so great to watch at his last pre-sanyaku-return station. Always full focused, determined, strong. The pure relax&enjoy source for me.
Many thanks for presenting the Makushita brackets, power division yusho outcomes and the promotion picture!
(It should have been ‚lower division‘, but the autocorrection‘s mistake is really nice:))
pre-sekitori, of course. Hah, can‘t wait…
Fujiseiun is already at 8 wins
shouldn’t he take precedence over the lower ranked rikishi by being KK?
but I like the idea they will make him earn it
maybe if he was J1e, but as it is, the other guys’ win totals outweigh the difference in rank
Conceivably, yes. But since he’s on the West, I could see him getting robbed with a simple shift to the East side.
lets assume the best scenario for Daiseizan; he win and ends 10-5 he is J-3
lets assume the worst scenario for Hatsuyama; he loses and ends 11-4 he is J-5
why the promotion order would be J-5 over J3 for only one win difference?
east vs west
Does Takayasu have a chance of Sekiwake promotion with a best-case scenario of 8-7?
or should it go to Kirishima
and if Aonishiki is promotion to Ozeki, should the spot goes to him or to another lower ranker
not sure what they’ll do for the first spot, might depend on Kirishima’s result tomorrow. I think if there are two openings, 8-7 Takayasu definitely takes the other one
I find Aonishiki’s style dishonorable. His extremely low stance at the tachiai gives him great advantage unless countered by the obvious counter-measure of henka, which itself is dishonorable. Basically Aonishiki seeks dishonorable advantage by exploiting the honor of his opponents. He is vulnerable any time he isn’t extremely low. Wakamotohoru showed how to defeat Aonishiki easily in this basho.
That’s a really bizarre take. The entire strategy of sumo is based around getting lower than your opponent. Everyone tries to get low, and Ura gets even lower than Aonishiki. It’s the opponent’s job to raise him up; those who manage to do so have a better chance to beat him, but it’s obviously not easy to do.
Also, the counter to someone coming in too low is not a henka, but taking the tachiai head-on and then slapping them down. Nothing dishonorable about that, and it’s done plenty when someone comes in too low. The trick is to be able to stay balanced and resist the slapdown, and then use the leverage that a low stance provides.
Look at his body angles at the tachiai on day 14 or any other day. Aonishiki’s body angle prior to engaging is extreme and actually sloping down. It’s barely level at engagement. Ura’s angle is low but he still faces upward. Asakoryu is the only one close. There is literally no way for most rikishi to get lower than Aonisihki and raise him up unless he makes a mistake and gets a little high like he did against Onosato last tournament. Aonishiki just bulls forward and leaves himself utterly defenseless against a henka at the tachiai (see Wakatakakage bout) and assumes honor will give him the advantage of a lower body position at engagement every time. It’s absolutely legal but not honorable in my opinion.
Aonishiki’s style, which speaks to his experience in wrestling and judo — coupled with being on the smaller side of the balance sheet both in height and weight — makes perfect sense for sumo. He has turned his “dis-advantages” into assets that beat his opponents at an 80% rate. Once he figures out how to counter Onosato and start winning against him he will be even more prolific in his career.
It’s fun to read your comment. Somehow it reminds me of the russian state-owned television‘s take on reality.
How odd. Dishonorable? Well, you’re entitled to your opinion obvs. Have to disagree though, as I don’t understand how his low fighting stance is dishonorable in any way shape or form. It’s how he fights. That’s his stance. Other rikishi have their own ways. None are “wrong” or “dishonorable”.
Dishonourable means lacking honor or integrity, and it describes actions or behaviors that are morally wrong or unacceptable. It can also refer to someone who does not deserve respect. I don’t think Aonishiki lacks honor or integrity, and his sumo is effective and full-on. His record in professional sumo speeaks for itelf.
You don’t have to like every rikishi, but your take on Aonishiki is very peculiar. Do you not like him because he’s Ukranian?
Ah, I think herbern had the right of it when they wrote Somehow it reminds me of the russian state-owned television‘s take on reality.
Nothing else to be written I feel.
There’s a very weird tendency by a subset of non-Japanese sumo fans to try to legislate what is and what isn’t “proper” sumo, usually meaning that they believe that everything that isn’t chest-to-chest yotsu should not exist. They don’t seem to be able to understand that sumo’s rule set is intentionally set up to allow for an extremely wide variety of tactics to be viable, because otherwise the lack of weight limits would never work.
Couldn’t have said it better, Betty.
leonid, you, and I understand the intricacies of sumo and how the smaller guys — Ura, Asakoryu, and Midorifuji especially — have developed strategies to make them competitive against the BIG guys.
Midorifuji’s mastery of the Katasukashi makes him a tough out for anyone.
Ura’s elusiveness and acrobatic moves — ditto.
Asakoryu is very strong for his diminutive size and uses leverage well.
Aonishiki has a very strong core and exceptional balance which negates opponents’ attempts to slap him down despite his very low approach at tachiai. Add that to his wide variety of techniques that he has developed in his short tenure, and he will be at the top of the banzuke in no time.
Umm Onosato?
Onosato pulling out of the final day surely makes Hoshoryu the odds-on favourite to win the Yusho. Aonishiki first has to fight Kotozakura and then Hoshoryu, while the latter gets a fusen win and can save his energy for the play-off.
Provided Aonishiki gets his win of course. Slightly anticlimactic end to the whole thing if Hoshoryu ends up winning via a fusen win.
Talking about anticlimax, if Aonishiki loses to the ozeki, basho stops right there!
didnt know onosato was put absent last day until i saw this comment and then went to read the absent rikishi information report, not so descent behavior for a yokozuna, it a show afterall
The Banzuke for Hatsu is going to be a pain in the rear to figure out other than the Sanyaku. Normal rank changes had me putting half a dozen at M12. Over-promotion and under-demotion will rule the day it seems.
Does Oshoumi survive the cut? A 7-8 record would normally say yes, but with so many deserving promotions from Juryo he may fall victim to Banzuke luck.
I think he survives, it’s him vs. Kotoeiho, they’re close numerically, and those sure looked like exchange bouts.