The Aki basho provided a lot of great storylines, culminating with a long-awaited showdown between two Yokozuna on the final day. With the results in the books, let’s take our preliminary early look at how they’re likely to reshuffle the rankings for the Kyushu basho.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
No changes here. After finishing with identical 13-2 records, the two Yokozuna will retain their spots, with Onosato on the East side and Hoshoryu on the West, though a different result in the playoff would have caused them to swap places if the precedent from the last such playoff in 2009, won by Asashoryu against Hakuho, is still valid. And Kotozakura (9-5-1) remains our sole Ozeki for now, as both Sekiwake disappointingly posted losing records and will have to restart their quests from scratch.
Sekiwake
Both Wakatakakage and Kirishima went 6-9, which, Takayasu’s exceptional treatment after May notwithstanding, should see both back in the rank-and-file in November. So we need two new Sekiwake. K1w Aonishiki posted his 4th straight 11-4 record, which would have been good enough to force an extra Sekiwake slot if one hadn’t come open, and he will easily take the East Sekiwake rank. His 22 wins over 2 basho while ranked M1e and Komusubi have opened the conversation about his Ozeki chances after November; I won’t add to the speculation here other than to note that 11 wins will be needed at a minimum, and that it may take a very impressive result (yusho?) for the JSA not to say “well done, kid, now do it again in January.” The West Sekiwake slot should go to Oho, who went 10-5 at M2w and last held the third-highest rank in March; this will mark the second time he goes straight from maegashira to Sekiwake, bypassing Komusubi, a rank he’s never held.
Komusubi
This is where things start to get tricky. There are three plausible candidates for two spots, and little chance that a third slot will be created. The first candidate is M7e Takanosho, whose 12-3 record gives him a really strong case. The other two are M2e Hakuoho (8-7) and an incumbent, K1e Takayasu (7-8). Both mathematically deserve to be ranked M1e, and exact precedents are few, not recent, and conflicting. It’s not impossible that both could be ranked Komusubi at the expense of Takanosho, but this seems highly unlikely, so we can pencil in Takanosho at K1e and then flip a coin to see whether they opt to give Hakuoho his long-awaited sanyaku debut or demote Takayasu only half a rank, allowing him to stay at Komusubi for the 4th consecutive basho despite two losing records in three tournaments.
Makuuchi Demotions and Promotions
Two top-division wrestlers are guaranteed to be demoted to Juryo—M16w Nishikigi (2-13) and absent M12e Takerufuji. Their spots will go to J3w Nishikifuji (11-4), returning for the first time since his March injury, and J1w Oshoumi (9-6), making his Makuuchi debut. There’s one more incumbent with a (barely) demotable record: newcomer M17w Hitoshi (7-8). The Juryo wrestler with the third-strongest promotion case is our old friend J2w Chiyoshoma (9-6), who dropped to division two after his 1-14 performance in July. I think that his case is good enough that they’ll make the exchange, but this is far from certain. There are two more Juryo men who posted records that are numerically promotable: J5w Fujiseiun (10-5) and the division rookie and yusho winner J11w Asahakuryu (13-2). Unfortunately for them, it looks like there’s no room at the inn: the incumbent next-closest to demotion is J13e Meisei (5-10), whose rank and record place him right at M18e, so he should be safe by the skin of his teeth.
Banzuke Conundrums
There are some tricky decisions in addition to deciding who gets K1w. Several high-ranked maegashira, including Gonoyama, Kotoshoho, Abi, Ichiyamamoto and Atamifuji, posted double-digit losing records, making it tricky to decide how far to drop them. There’s also an unusually high number of wrestlers with 7-8 records (10, one short of the record), and we have to decide who stays in place and who drops, and by how much. There’s also a “hole” in the middle of the maegashira ranks that will require rather extreme over-promotions and under-demotions to fill. If you want to try your hand at this, see if you can figure out whom to place at M8e and M9w. In general, with the two Yokozuna and a handful of other high-performing wrestlers racking up a lot of wins, the rest of the rikishi have to soak up the losses, so this is going to be a “lucky” banzuke, with almost everyone ranked above where their rank-record combination would suggest.
Juryo Demotions and Promotions
Here, we have a lot more certainty. The promotions from Makushita to Juryo have been announced, with Kitanowaka and Wakanosho returning to the paid ranks and Nagamura (now Himukamaru) and Goshima (now Fujiryōga) making their salaried debuts. You can read more about their journeys in my Makushita posts. Takakento just missed out and will try again, probably from the very top rank, to earn a return exactly two years after a knee injury dropped him from Juryo to Sandanme.
The corresponding demotions are not announced, but we can be certain about three of them and reasonably confident in the fourth. J10w Miyanokaze (3-12) will return to Makushita after three basho in Juryo. Absent Endo will also drop, and it’s not clear whether he will attempt a comeback from what sounds like surgeries on both knees. And of course we already know that Takarafuji has chosen retirement over demotion. The most likely 4th demotion is J13e Kyokukaiyu (6-9), whose first sekitori basho was not a success. Assuming they do the math right, J14e Shiden (7-8) should be just barely safe, but you never know with this banzuke committee.
The full banzuke will be announced on October 27, two weeks before the start of the Kyushu basho, and I’ll try to post my full banzuke guess closer to that time. Meanwhile, let me know what you think in the comments.
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For your Quiz: Currently, I have Tobizaru at M8E and Ichiyamamoto at M9W.
They also have the biggest gifts (ranking vs calculated rank) in my banzuke.
For the 1 loss crew I have Onokatsu, Kinbozan, Midorifuji, Daiesho, Roga, Mitakeumi & Shonnanoumi all holding rank, with Tokihayate & Takayasu dropping a half rank.
J1 to J4 is a bit of a pileup, so I am glad I’m not guessing those.
This is my first guess for J1-J4 (assuming Hitoshi drops; otherwise put Chiyoshoma at J1e):
M17w Hitoshi 7-8 ↓ J1 J2e Kotoeiho 8-7 +0.5
J1e Daiseizan 7-8 -1 J2 J5w Fujiseiun 10-5 +3
J4w Mita 9-6 +1.5 J3 J4e Kagayaki 8-7 +0.5
J11w Asahakuryu 13-2 Y +7.5 J4 J13w Asanoyama 12-3 +9
But on second thought, it makes sense to overdemote Daiseizan to J3e, and slide Fujiseiun and Mita up. Asahakuryu gets screwed by virtue of his low rank.
Really quite a jam there!
Asahakuryu even gets overscrewed, I see him at least at J3!
PS: „otherwise put Chiyoshoma at J1e“ – or Meisei…
It’s boring, but like jmotzi I sent in Tobizaru and Ichiyamamoto at M8e and M9w!
In return there was an interesting discussion led by Savaros about the Meisei/Hitoshi chances. He and Andy are quite sure that a 7-8 won’t be demoted and there are really examples of M17 with 7-8 overtaking M13 with 5-10. I still was in favor of Meisei but then I saw that he lost against… Hitoshi on day 15. Was that an elimination bout?
Well, my solution was to keep the henkamongolian in juryo, which I liked a lot.
Where was the discussion? I don’t see it in the comments here. There are nuances involving whether 18e exists or not and east/west sides.
I guess it was in the comments to Andy‘s senshuraku report.
It was in the senshuraku comments and I still think that bad performance will beat math here, but obviously it could be the other way around too. I also think Chiyoshoma will be ahead of Asahakuryu in the promotion queu by virtue of the later one being a rookie and the banzuke committee being generally a bit reluctant in promoting those. Were it a more experienced rikishi in his position, I wouldn’t be that sure.
I’m a math guy, that’s how I got into banzuke predictions in the first place, so I’ll always go with the math unless there’s a compelling reason to do otherwise. Of course, no shortage of instances where that’s led me astray … as has second-guessing the math.
Me, too for 8E and 9W – popular pick, it seems. Where does everyone have Gonoyama? At the moment I have him 14E, but I’m not sure he’ll fall that far..
Can‘t tell U anymore because there has been no e-mail from GTB this time and my browser lost the information. I only remember that I underdemoted him like so many others, so M14 sounds like it.
…though I probably preferred the west side.
The last time an M3 went 1-14, he ended up at 13w, though this is a different banzuke committee…
I’m not as knowledgeable as most here on the details of this, but isn’t Komusubi even more complicated with the two Sekiwake going 6-9? My understanding is that they’d both deserve M1, dropping two ranks being two wins under 8-7. But Hakuoho and Takayasu both deserve M1 from that thinking as well. Two of the four are getting a gift regardless.
Do they gift rikishi who don’t necessarily deserve the promotion over keeping two that already had the rank but don’t deserve to keep it? Is there precedent that made you write off the sekiwake?
It’s usually the difference between wins and losses that counts.
Therefore a 6-9 theoretically means a demotion by three ranks.
Correct, and historically 6-9 sekiwake have always dropped to maegashira; the last exception was in 1952.
A stopover at Komusubi would have been nice for both WTK and Kirishima on their way down again…
they had it in their hands on day 15
Thanks, that makes sense. For some reason I was thinking every loss was a one rank demotion, not two ranks. I suppose the 8-7 vs 7-8 difference is one rank, but the rest are more costly.
No, 8-7 vs 7-8 is two ranks, too. As a rule the first goes one up and the second one down, which gives a difference of two.
Hi All, when thinking of the Banzuke for the Kyushu basho, my thoughts go to this current event topic of historic nature…. Heard this morning that Ms. Sane Takaichi has been elected to position as the new leader of the LDP (Japan’s ruling Conservative Party). This means she most likely will become Japan’s first female Prime Minister by mid October. My sumo related question is regarding the Prime Minister’s Cup, that massive 40kg silver trophy awarded to Yusho winner….would love your thoughts on if the JSA will allow her to ever step foot in the dohyo to present it, or will such presentation always be done by a member of her cabinet to avoid the traditional rule of no females on the dohyo?
The precedent of a female delivering a prize to the yusho winner has happened, she was not allowed on the Dohyo and delivered it from the floor. There will likely be a male cabinet member or other dignitary handing the Prime Minister’s Cup over next time if there is a female PM.
My understanding is that, glass-ceiling busting notwithstanding, Takaichi has a conservative/right-leaning political orientation – and therefore, logically, popular support from that quarter as well – so she may not be very inclined to break or modify that tradition.
In any case, I don’t have a clear recollection of when the PM has in fact attended and cup-hoisted since I’ve been watching. I guess when Trump was there?
Yes exactly, I remember seeing the late PM Abe there, Trump was with him, and that was when Asanoyama won the Makuuchi title in May 2019. I think another PM has attended since, but a hazy memory for me. Will be very interesting to see how this is handled if she indeed ever shows up, but I tend to agree that given her conservative orientation, chances are that traditions carry on per usual.
Some extended knowledge about the female body and their biology would have been helpful for an eternal decision, who should enter the dohyo and who should not. But it‘s not my game… nor my planet…
Off-topic again, but was that Takakeisho’s retirement ceremony I saw? Or what that his son?
Would like very much to see the shrieked ones goodbye. Have U got a link?
Here’s one – go to youtube and this one: watch?v=p_cCM06XHCk
Thanks, I wouldn’t have recognized him…
This time we actually had a full fight card for the top guys where nearly everyone M2 and above fought each other (the exception is the Kotozakura-Wakatakakage match which couldn’t happen on Day 15).
Just for fun: Here is how the group stacks up against each other in this matrix of 11 rikishi (10 wins possible):
8 wins Onosato, Hoshoryu, Aonishiki
6 wins Oho
5 wins Kotozakura, Hakuoho
4 wins Tamawashi
3 wins Wakatakakage, Kirishima, Takayasu
1 win Abi
More fun of the same: only six rikishi have a positive record against sanyaku since 2024 (that’s since Onosato is in makuuchi). As it should be, our two yokozuna are the clear leaders with 41-17 (Onosato) and 33-12 (Hoshoryu) respectively.
In case anyone is interested in details, here‘s the query:
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=rikishi1&year=2024.01-now&day=1-15&m=on&nofusensho=on&nofusenpai=on&rank2=Y,o,s,k&gsort_by=record
Thanks for showing us this jmotzi. We can clearly see the true strength of these winners.
Huh – interesting. Didn’t particularly remember Tamawashi doing reasonably well amongst that lot – obviously still a losing record, but not dramatically so. Life in the old dog, yet!