Now that the action has concluded, we can take our customary preliminary look at the implications of the results for the next banzuke.
Yokozuna and Ozeki
The only change here is that Onosato will swap sides with Hoshoryu based on their records. Kotozakura posted his 3rd straight 8-7 record, just avoiding kadoban. Tachiai hopes that everyone shows up in September healed up and ready to fight.
Sekiwake
Daieisho’s unfortunate kyujo put an end to any near-term hopes of Ozeki promotion, and will also end his year-long stay in sanyaku and drop him to his lowest rank since 2018. Exactly how far he falls is one of the big question marks on this banzuke. Kirishima’s 8-7 should reset his Ozeki run to square one, unless he can pull off an improbable 14+ win yusho in September. Wakatakakage followed up his 12-3 in May with a 10-5, giving him a total of 22 wins and a likely target of 11 at Aki for a long-awaited Ozeki promotion. It’ll be interesting to see if he leapfrogs Kirishima for East Sekiwake.
Komusubi
Despite not deserving the rank based on his May record, Takayasu had an outstanding tournament, finishing with 10 wins, beating Kotozakura and Wakatakakage, featuring in the yusho race as late as Day 11, and serving as the barrier to yusho contenders Aonishiki, Ichiyamamoto, Atamifuji and Kusano. With both active Sekiwake getting winning records, he’ll probably have to be content with sliding over to the East side. Oshoma’s sanyaku debut … did not go well; he finished with only 3 wins and will drop deep into the maegashira ranks—how deep is another banzuke conundrum. With a spot open, Aonishiki will make his record-setting sanyaku debut, albeit one basho later than he should have. The young Ukrainian did not hit a ceiling in his first basho in the joi, and has now posted 11-4 records in each of his three top-division tournaments. If he can replicate this feat two more times, he‘ll might be Ozeki. Tamawashi and Abi also put up records that would warrant sanyaku promotion, but unless the banzuke makers are feeling generous and decide to create extra Sekiwake or Komusubi slots, they’ll probably have to settle for the top maegashira ranks.
Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges
We have 4 stone-cold demotions—Hidenoumi, Kayo, Chiyoshoma and Endo—matched by 4 clear promotions—Shonannoumi, Tomokaze, Nishikigi and Ryuden. Then there are two rikishi on the bubble—Kotoeiho and Shishi—and two marginal promotion candidates—Hitoshi and Daiseizan. My current guess is that they’ll exchange Kotoeiho with Hitoshi, but that Shishi will just survive and Daiseizan will just miss out, but it’s possible that they’ll make neither or both exchanges.
Juryo-Makushita Exchanges
As readers who followed my third-division coverage know, we had a pretty good idea of what would happen here on day 13, with a couple of question marks. Here’s how everything played out. All of the promotion candidates won except Kitanowaka, who lost what looked like a straight exchange bout to Daiamami today. So Ishizaki, Kyokukaiyu, and former Ozeki Asanoyama with join the Makushita champion, Asahakuryu, in the sekitori ranks, resulting in a rare triple promotion for Takasago beya, whose only current sekitori is Ishizaki’s brother, Asakoryu, who used to fight as Ishizaki himself. Expect some sort of Asa- shikona for the brother as well. Making way for them and dropping out of the salaried ranks are Nabatame, Mitoryu, Shimanoumi and Otsuji. The remaining question mark is whether Ms5e Nishinoryu (5-2) might push down Daiamami. The math puts Nishinoryu half a rank ahead, but I don’t see them making the exchange: Daiamami’s record isn’t a “must demote”, 5-2 at Ms5e isn’t enough for promotion more often than not, including just last basho, and Daiamami won what sure looked like a straight exchange bout.
We’ll find out about Juryo promotions in a couple of days, but we’ll have to wait until September 1 for the rest of the rankings. The Crystal Ball will weigh in closer to then; in the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
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At least for now, I have Shishi and Kotoeihō holding down M-17W and M-18E respectively, just ahead of Hitoshi and Daiseizan… and Daiamami holding J-14W, just ahead of Nishinoryū, though it’s possible they all could be swapped…
In my opinion, Kotoeihō 6-9 at M-17E, looks like clear a demotion.
This would be a mixed emotion for the Koto brothers.
If he is not demoted, I would be happy.
If Diamami goes down, who will be promoted Nishinoryu or Kitanowaka?
It looks like both are having equal opportunity, but depends on their luck.
Kotoshoho fell to juryo in 2023, so maybe Kotoeiho will take a yusho in 2027….
After the Yokozuna promotions of Hoshoryu and Onosato the much needed Ozeki promotions are exciting for me to keep an eye on.
I’m confused about “If he can replicate this feat two more times, he’ll be Ozeki” for Aonishiki. Why would they factor in his 11-4 at M-1E for his Ozeki run?
In the in basho a year era it happened only three times that a rikishi reached 33 wins within three consecutive tournaments starting from a maegashira rank:
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=3&op==&sum_wins=33&show_sum=on&form1_rank=M1-m4&form1_year=%3E1956&form2_rank=K,s&form3_rank=S
Only Terunofuji was promoted to ozeki and he fetched the yusho in the third basho.
Therefore I guess that Aonishiki also needed an equivalent to a tournament victory at least.
Change exactly 33 to at least 33 and you’ll get the proper result:
http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=3&sum_wins=33&show_sum=on&form1_rank=M1-m4&form1_year=%3E1956&form2_rank=K,s&form3_rank=S
But yeah, it seems exactly 33 wins was not considered enough in the past. There’s such a large gap between Terunofuji and Kotomitsuki though, that it’s hard to tell if the yusho tipped the scales or their approach just changed. It did look like they were ready to accept an ozeki run from Takayasu in 2023 or else why bother bumping him from M1 to S2 with “just” 12 wins, and who really expects Takayasu to yusho?
As the discussion is whether 33 wins for Aonishiki after two more basho will be enough „exactly 33“ is obviously the correct parameter.
But your trying to find out how many wins it takes is not uninteresting, too.
So is it your opinion that Wakanohana and Kotomitsuki not getting promoted to Ozeki with 34 wins is not relevant?
I wrote a whole post about this a few years back: https://tachiai.org/2022/05/29/a-brief-history-of-ozeki-runs-updated/
Clearly my “… and he’ll be Ozeki” in the current post is far too definitive, he could go 11-11-11 and they’d be like “you’re too young and too green, M1e doesn’t count, go do it again.”
Not totally Irrelevant, but also not changing one syllable of my original point, that with 33 wins a yusho would probably be mandatory.
Yusho in the 3rd tournament as Sekiwake is what is likely needed. Kotomitsuki won the 1st tournament as M2e and did not get promoted to Ozeki with 34 wins.
I mean, 11-12-13 would surely do it even without a yusho, no?
I guess U‘re right. It’s certainly very advantageous to have the best basho at the end of the run when the pressure is on.
Iksumo: 36 wins certainly would be enough even without yusho. So far getting to 36 or more wins has resulted in Ozeki promotion in all 11 cases regardless of whether the run starts as Maegashira or not, or whether it is a re-promotion to Ozeki or not.
35 wins without yusho is a real question mark, since the last one with 35 wins, is Kitao i.e. Futahaguro, and there are no cases after that with 35 wins without yusho starting from M1-M4.
Is 35 wins without yusho enough or not?
That’s not an accurate statement. Takanosato had 36 wins beginning from M12. He was not promoted to Ozeki in spite of holding Sekiwake rank in Kyushu 1980.
U‘re right, Andy. But it seems that Askoj meant joi maegashira only as he pointed out when talking about 35 wins (M1-M4).
Ah, I did not realize joi-status was assumed. It’s interesting to see the failed runs, though. Especially seeing Taiho denied at M6 with 34 wins, in spite of a Day 1 kinboshi and further wins over an Ozeki and 2 Sekiwake and a Komusubi. The reason I am being a stickler about that “joi” cut line is because we know that can be rather fluid given kyujo. I mean, how low does that limbo bar go?
In practice, it’s always meant at least M4 but the sample size is small
Askoj: I agree with everything U wrote concerning ozeki runs started from maegashira (joi), but I’d like to add that the third basho seems to be very important if not decisive. There has been no similar example, but I wouldn’t be shocked if even 36 wins were not enough when split like that: 14Y + 14Y + 8.
There’s never been a promotion without 10+ in the third basho, I’ve seen double digits listed as part of the “requirements.” Though 14Y 14Y at sekiwake would almost certainly be enough on its own; nobody’s ever failed to make it with 25 or more wins in two basho at sekiwake (though nobody went make-koshi right before, either). https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&sum_wins=25&sum_range=2&sum_first=2&show_sum=on&form1_basho_nr=2&form1_rank=s&form1_year=1958-now&form2_basho_nr=3&form2_rank=s
Presumably (is that a word?) a makekoshi would have dumped the wrestler from Sekiwake. There will be outliers but I would assume a yusho run of 14Y, 14Y at Sekiwake would have been preceded by at least 8.
There’s never been a run remotely like that outside of wrestlers at O/Y. And you’re right about makekoshi of course, except that on a handful of occasions, 7-8 was enough to hold rank (most recently, Goeido in 2016). Follow that up with two yusho, or even one at K and one at S, and maybe? Like I said, nobody’s ever managed to win 2 in a row with both basho below ozeki
Kotoshoho will be the first.
Hahaha I wonder what odds you could get on that.
That would be an interesting scenario.
33 wins with a yusho like Teru or a jun-yusho would be understandable, yep. Without I doubt he’d get promoted with 33 wins considering he started at M-1E.
I have no doubt Aonishiki will make it to Ozeki soon, but I think he’ll need 3 more bashos.
Anyway, thanks a lot for the replies everyone!
An ozeki run can be started from anywhere in the Sekiwake – M4W range. It only must conclude at Sekiwake with 10+ wins.
Since 1960 only 3 rikishi out of 10 with 33+ wins over 3 basho starting not lower than M4W were denied ozeki promotion, and it looks more age related as they were the yougenst ones of the bunch.
Aonishiki at the moment is in every oykata’s s sights and they are working on techniques to counterattack his fighting from low position. Sooner or later he will be fully read and I would be very surprised if he continues scoring double digit kachi koshis.
Aonishiki only came to Japan after Putin‘s raid on the Ukraine.
That means he’s three years in the sumo association and will probably improve as least as much as his opponents.
In his commentary, Murray Johnson said that 32 (not 33) is the magic number for ozeki promotion – he did it several times, so I don’t think it was just a slip.
What do we make of that? Is he saying that the current ozeki hunger will make that the benchmark for the time being? Is he right?
There is no hard and fast rule on Ozeki or Yokozuna promotion. The rule of thumb is “33 wins over three consecutive tournaments at Komusubi or Sekiwake” and since they didn’t put Aonishiki at Komusubi and severely under-demoted Takayasu before this tournament I am doubtful they would promote him to Ozeki with only two tournaments in san’yaku with 11 wins each. If he does 12 or 13 and gets a yusho it makes it more likely. They really don’t like promoting people without three tournaments in san’yaku.
The threshold can vary. If we had two or more fit and active ozeki they would probably insist on 33. If they had only one ozeki, and that man was smashing in with 10+ wins every basho they would probably still want 33. Right now, however, we have one ozeki and he is performing around the level we would expect for a M4 or M5. I am pretty confident that they would promote any likely candidate who got 32 wins in sanyaku, or 33 from a maegashira start.
Wakatakakage and Aonishiki also have a big advantage in that they are unlikely to have to fight Daieisho (the dai-sekiwake) in September.
The “magic number”, if there is one, is definitely 33, so I think Murray either misspoke or doesn’t know what he’s talking about—his comments about banzuke movements in general are frequently off-target. Of course 32 can be sufficient, depending on the exact circumstances, but there are multiple instances in the last few years of it not being enough despite a lack of ozeki (Daieisho 10-12-10 for one).
Thanks
I can’t hear that whining over Takayasu‘s staying in sanyakau any more.
„Then there are two rikishi on the bubble—Kotoeiho and Shishi—and two marginal promotion candidates—Hitoshi and Daiseizan.“ As U write it’s unclear if Kotoeiho will be demoted.
Now replace in your sentence Kotoeiho with Takayasu and Hitoshi with Aonishiki and U have exactly the situation of last basho.
Yes, Takayasu deserved demotion, but Aonishiki didn’t deserve promotion and they chose the bear. That it was a first doesn’t make it a scandal! Case closed (from my side at least).
Takayasu has only had 3 matches in a row with 10+ wins once in his 15 year career. The rest of his career has been marked with small periods of success punctuated by many periods of mediocrity. He will never be a yokozuna; he may very well never touch ozeki again. So yes, it is very understandable why fans question why the JSA went against longstanding tradition in leaving him at that level.
Former and especially expected future achievements do not affect the banzuke as far as I know.
Agree to disagree. And pretty much the only reason I’m considering them not making the Kotoeiho-Hitoshi exchange is that this version of the banzuke committee has been making completely unprecedented decisions that favor incumbents, starting with not demoting Nishikifuji after 6-9 at the bottom rung a year ago. You can find ways to justify it, but what they’re doing deviates from all of modern history of banzuke making.
And I’ll add one thing. Wrestlers and coaches know how this is supposed to work. Aonishiki and Ajigawa oyakata would have fully expected the promotion, only to have the rug pulled out from under them. Fair?
Yes, not to promote to sanyaku a rikishi who calculates to M2 is fair.
And I hope they would not have been as dumb to fully expect a promotion before the banzuke was released. As U‘re always telling us, the committee makes the decisions and there are hardly any fix rules. Well, I guess even they couldn’t demote a kachi-koshi sekiwake to the rank and files… but regarding to Shishi, I found some 7-8 promotions (decades ago), which btw I also don’t think completely wrong!
If I counted right we had the J13 with 6-9 vs Ms5 with 5-2 situation seven times in this century and the latter always overtook the sekitori. Always except last basho, that is.
Therefore I think U are right and Daiamami will stay in, which btw I‘d like.
Thoughts on where kotoshoho will land?
I have him at M4w. I don’t think he is going to go more than half a rank up or down from there.
I should admit that Takayasu filled his gatekeeper role with verve and consequence.
It wasn‘t too bad to keep Aonishiki out of sanyaku yet for this tournament. So there was a chance for him to get a kinboshi. Too fast a carreer isn‘t always good for people, though the audience would like to see.
Shishi was lucky for the Nagoya banzuke, but this time they could decide it was appropriate to send him back to the lower division.
To keep Daiamami would mean an easy possibility for a win to every Juryo newcomer. If placed in the earlier days, it will help to create momentum for them to cope with the extended schedule of 15 bouts. Go ahead, banzuke committee…
Say what you will about Daiamami, but he did give Asanoyama a run for his money. He’s surely diminished, but not to the extent of Daishoho’s complete collapse.
Wow, Daishoho‘s trend is really terrible and that without a kyujo.
Let‘s hope Takarafuji will not be the next in line. His 4-11 was even quite good compared with what he showed on the dohyo!
I would really like an additional sanyaku spot (either three Sekiwake or three Komusubi) but that would make it nearly impossible to deal with the exchanges at the bottom of the banzuke. I don’t see any way to avoid sending Kotoeiho down (-3 score at M17W) and once you send him down you have to bring someone else up. It’s really difficult to make it work without the M18E spot which would be the case if there were an extra sanyaku spot.
Having an extra Sanyaku spot does not really affect Makuuchi demotions and Juryo promotions. The only net effect will be that all Maegashira will get an automatic 1/2 rank promotion.
Indeed – it’s 42 no matter how you slice the sausage.
That’s what happens when I comment without looking at the spreadsheet.
It’s the other way round: because there is one sanyaku spot less next basho (Aonishiki will take over from Oshoma, but Daieisho will not be replaced) there will be a M18e.
My guess is that Wakatakakage will FAIL to get the 11 wins necessary for the Ozeki promotion! The jitters always set in once they are fighting “not to lose”!
As for Kotoshoho, I will peg him in at Maegashira 5 East for the next basho and a makekoshi next time around
Expect good things-barring injuries from Aonishiki and Kusano. Shishi will stay in Makuuchi due to his win on Senshura but he will move 17West!
Demotion for Chiyoshoma and Kotoeiho!
I agree with U on Wakatakakage, Aonishiki, Kusano, Chiyoshoma and Shishi (though M17w would not be a move). Kotoeiho could stay in with a little luck because Hitoshi didn’t really force a promotion. As to his brother I guessed him on M4e and I‘m not so sure about the losing record. I’m very curious about his basho as nothing between 10-5 and 3-12 would surprise me much.
FYI, Blue whirlwind: Aonishiki is on youtube now.
https://youtu.be/EoVbRevoQfU?si=hhi-FO67h4B8JyoW
Very entertaining and informative.
Thanks – good indeed!
In Hatsu and Nagoya 2022, Takayasu was kyujo and his ranking was protected. Would It be possible for Daiesho to mantain his sekiwake status, and if not, why?
In those years the reason for a protected was almost always covid.
Always, in fact. After kōshō seido was abolished in 2003, there’s no rank protection for inuries.