Chill, Andy, it won’t be so bad.
Let’s take our customary instant look at how the results of this basho are likely to reshuffle the rankings chart for the next one.
Sanyaku
We will have three Sekiwake: Daieisho and Kirishima, who both posted double-digit wins at the rank, and Wakatakakage, whose 12 wins at Komusubi are sufficient to force open an extra slot. Daieisho and Kirishima are at 19 wins apiece over the past two basho, so only an outstanding yusho-winning performance in July is likely to elevate either to Ozeki. Wakatakakage is at 21, so he might be able to get there with another 12-3 performance, though his 9 wins in March did come at M1. Oh, and the extra sanyaku rank means that M18e will disappear from the banzuke after lasting 2 basho for the first time since Makuuchi has been at its current size of 42 rikishi.
Wakatakakage’s promotion and the demotion of fellow Komusubi Takayasu (6-9) requires filling two Komusubi slots. M2e Abi (7-8) dropped out after his Day 15 loss to M6e Oshoma (10-5), leaving the latter in pole position for one spot. I have M9e Aonishiki (11-4) ahead of M8e Onokatsu (10-5) for the other. If this happens, Aonishiki will have accomplished a rare feat in going from top-division debut to the named ranks in three tournaments, following in the footsteps of such wrestlers as Onosato and Asashoryu (Ichinojo famously got to Sekiwake in his second Makuuchi basho).
Upper Maegashira
The M1-M5 ranks used to be known as “the zone of death” and “the meat grinder” after being frequently decimated by sanyaku opponents. While this often hasn’t been the case in recent years, the ranks certainly lived up to their reputation this time. The 10 rikishi ranked here posted exactly zero winning records for only the 11th time in the six-basho era, and one of only a handful that didn’t involve kyujo. They managed only 57 wins and 93 losses (though the Natsu 1971 crew managed a whopping 103 losses!). Several of the denizens of the zone of death did well enough to find themselves right back there in Nagoya: Wakamotoharu, Oho, Abi, Tamawashi, and Hiradoumi (plus Takayasu). Takerufuji, Ichiyamamoto, Gonoyama, Ura, and Chiyoshoma will rotate out, to be replaced in the meat grinder by Onokatsu, Kinbozan, Hakuoho, and Meisei.
Makuuchi <-> Juryo
M18e Tochitaikai (4-11) and M17e Tamashoho (4-11) were already fully booked on the Juryo barge before senshuraku. All the endangered rikishi lost today, leaving us with 4 more demotion candidates: M15w Shonannoumi (5-10), M15e Ryuden (5-10), M16w Nishikigi (6-9), and M11w Shishi (4-11).
On the Juryo side, everyone who needed to won. So in addition to yusho winner J1w Kusano (13-2), runner-up J5w Wakaikari (12-3), and top-ranked former Ozeki J1e Mitakeumi (8-7), we have 3 additional promotion candidates: J2e Hidenoumi (9-6), J7w Kotoeiho (11-4), and J7e Tomokaze (10-5). Tochitaikai, Tamashoho, and Shonannoumi will make room for the first trio. Hidenoumi should get the nod over Ryuden. Then it comes down to Kotoeiho vs. Nishikigi and Tomokaze vs. Shishi. My guess is that they’ll make the first of these exchanges but not the second, giving us five movements between the divisions, with exciting newcomers Kusano, Wakaikari, and Kotoeiho joining returning veterans Mitakeumi and Hidenoumi.
Juryo <-> Makushita
Champion Ms3e Otsuji (7-0) will bounce right back up, replacing absent J11w Wakanosho. Ms4e Ishizaki (4-3) lost his exchange bout to J10w Hatsuyama (6-9), while Ms4w Kotokuzan (5-2) won his against J13e Miyanokaze (6-9). These results mean that Hatsuyama is safe, while Ishizaki misses out on promotion with a last-day loss for the third consecutive basho. J14w Mudoho (5-10) is booked for an immediate return trip to Makushita, and will be replaced by Kotokuzan. The final spot in Juryo will go to either Ms5e Kyokukaiyu (5-2) or Miyanokaze. I think the Makushita man should get the nod here, but it’s not a certainty. We’ll find out about this decision (and Onosato’s Yokozuna promotion, of course!) in the next couple of days, but we’ll have to wait until June 30 for the rest of the rankings. Crystal Ball will weigh in closer to that date. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
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I’m not excited to see Mitakeumi back if he’s going to struggle again. Nishikigi might need some time in Juryo to retool, heal whatever is nagging him.
Yeah Mitakeumi didn’t exactly look convincing. But he did get 8 wins at J1e, and it takes exceptional circumstances to deny promotion.
Here’s hoping the short dump to Juryo gave Mitakeumi a dose of fighting spirit, even if he didn’t always show it, and he gets over whatever has been clouding his way. He may be on his last chance to redeem his short Ozeki tenure.
Considering the poor performance of some recent juryo promotees, I am happy to see Mitakeumi back. He just need to put more effort and keep getting KKs
Hate to be a negative vibe merchant but … Only my opinion but I don’t think WTK will be promoted to sekiwake. I can’t see the JSA promoting 2 rikishi from outside the joi to sanyaku. Sucks though.
There’s plenty of uncertainty about a lot of my banzuke predictions, but I’d be willing to place a very substantial bet on this particular one.
out of 39 Komusubi with 11 wins in a basho, none has failed to get promoted to Sekiwake. Out of 16 Komusubi with 12 wins, all 16 made it.
In March 2000 they opened an extra Komusubi slot for Takatoriki from M14. Promotions to Komusubi from outside Joi are not that rare. I doubt it really matters, wether thats 1 or 2 in a basho.
There isnÄt a lot of harm that can be done by promoting someone to Komusubi. Either they perform or get demoted again. Outside of the slightly thicker cushion when demoted, there are no benefits.
Every time I wished somebody to defeat Hidenoumi, that person lost. Time to let him go upstairs, even as No.4 in the waiting line. While reading I wondered if the committee would possibly grant Shishi a stay in Makuuchi because of his current rank and some great performances (plus knowing that he was suffering some hip/thigh damage for many days). So I fully agree with your conclusion of maximum five exchanges between the sekitori divisions.
With Kusano, Wakaikari and hopefully Kotoeiho there will be the next little festival opened in lower Makuuchi, looking forward to the show!
Thanks very much, Leonid. Your analysis is always a treat.
I like your reasoning for everyone you mentioned.
Placing the individuals in the correct order (or the same as the committee, which are not always “the correct order”) will be the challenge here.
I think Tomokaze getting promoted can get ruled out. there have been 24 rikishi with 10w at J7e before and only the very first in 1928 got rpomoted to Makuuchi. If you add J7w, its 20 more and only the first in 1935 went up. But back then, there were only 11days, so we speak about 10-1 records.
With 11 wins its only 20 cases and 4 going up, but only 1 out of 10 from west side. I would loive to see Kotoeiho go up, but ever since Nagoya last year, when Nishikifuji remnained in Makuuchi with a 6-9 record on the very last rank in Makuuchi, I have little confidence in the Juryo guy getting the nod here. 6-9 definitely warrants a demotion. As recently as last basho, Asakoryu was only demoted 3 positions with a 6-9 record.
I think Takayasu will end up in M1e for only the reason that it would allow to treat all the 7-8 guys equally and move them half a rank down, to be followed by Onokatsu and Kinbozan. Something tells me that Hakuohos special treatment isnt taken in consideration here and he will be slotted behind those 2, He could also fall behind Tamawashi and Hiradoumi.
I think Kusano will slot in at M12, going past everyone with a losing record down there plus Shishi and Tokihayate. In a best case he also skips Atamifuji, Takanosho, Shodai und Roga, while in a worst case Tokihayate also stays ahead.
Hakuoho would get a two-rank over-promotion for his 8-7 if he lands at M4e, and a one-rank overpromotion if he lands at M5e, so maybe not special treatment but favorable banzuke luck. I’ve got Kusano quite a bit lower in my first draft, but I’ll have to look more closely.
Interesting that U see Takayasu in front of the M1: I decided the same way when I sent my GTB entry (therefore U’re probably wrong…).
Concerning Kotoeiho I‘m more optimistic than U, because my query was the other way round: which were the lowest ranks from which 7 wins brought promotion. And there was not only Oho who got it from J7e but also Asakoryu from J8e even!
This should have been an answer to Savaros, not to Iksumo. Sorry.
…and I meant 7 wins more than losses, of course…
Like to see Hakuoho in Sanyaku, but his second half of the tournament was disappointing.
Although he is Kachi koshi, I was expecting double digits from him.
Hopefully he will be a Sanyaku main stay, like to see him brawl with Top ranks.
Just curious on how far up the banzuke does Kusano going to land?
with 13wins at J1, probably around M13 or M14?
In my first draft I have Kusano at M13E. But I need to do some more research on how 13 win J1 promotions have been handled in the past. I have Waikaikari at M14E, Hidenoumi at M15W, Kotoeiho at M16W and Mitakeumi at M17E. Stragglers Kotoshoho at M15E, Kayo at M16E and Shishi as last man standing at M17W.
I have the ten M1-M5 folks the same as Iksumo (order not specified, but I have given WMH & Oho a free pass).
OK, here is the tabulation of how 12-win and 13-win Juryo guys were ranked in Makuuchi the following basho:
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=j&form1_wins=12&form2_rank=m&offset=100
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=j&form1_wins=13&form2_rank=m&offset=50
Thanks for the info:)
As per the record, if the conditions are favourable, then he can go as high as M9
Well, doing the sums he could go anywhere from M6 to M16!?!
As a fan who just enjoys watching, some observations from this basho:
– Takayasu looks as though his heart isn’t in it anymore
– If “desperate” was a sumo style than Shishi would be its brand manager
– Atamifuji still can’t figure out who he is or how to use his size
– WTK and Aonishiki bring energy and excitement to every match
– Thank the gods Onosato will be a yokozuna. The spectre of the Mongolian killjoy and Mr Triple Tatas being at the very top of the sport after Terunofuji’s retirement was giving me agita in January.
Takayasu‘s 4-0 finish showed that his heart is still in it.
There would be some competition for that brand manager‘s job, as Shishi‘s style doesn’t seem more desperate than that of many others.
I am also glad Onosato will be Yokozuna. And I was very glad that Asashoryu was at the right time at the right place in January. He‘s the lightest and the second shortest Yokozuna of the century, which means he must be one of the best technically. And U know that he won’t lose his rank because of Onosato? So, unfortunately U won’t get rid of your agita (unless U take in less sugar).
I can’t remember the rules for the East/West situation we have with Hoshoryu/Onosato and Daieisho/Kirishima. I have them in that position but I’m afraid I forgot some basic stuff here…
Also, I have the feeling Kotoeiho won’t get the nod over Nishikigi, but I want to believe…
No clear rules…