A quick update to yesterday’s scenarios, now that we know the outcomes of Day 14 action.
Sanyaku
Daieisho and Kirishima will be sekiwake again in July. They’ll be joined at that rank by komusubi Wakatakakage (11-3), whose 11 wins should by precedent force an extra slot. Komusubi Takayasu (5-9) is out. So we’ll have two open komusubi slots. Both of the top contenders lost today, which means that M1e Wakamotoharu (6-8) is out of the running entirely. The other leading contender, M2e Abi (7-7), can still return to sanyaku if he beats M6e Oshoma (9-5) tomorrow. Oshoma is guaranteed a komusubi slot with a win, which would also eliminate Abi from consideration. In that scenario, the pecking order for K1w would be as follows: 1. M9e Aonishiki (10-4), 2. M8e Onokatsu (9-5), 3. M8w Kinobozan (9-5), 4. M7e Hakuoho (8-6). The highest person on this list to win gets the spot, although I’m not sure Hakuoho with a win would pass Aonishiki with a loss. If Abi beats Oshoma, then Oshoma would slot into the K1w queue in a virtual tie with Onokatsu, so he could still get the spot provided Aonishiki and possibly Onokatsu lose.
Makuuchi <-> Juryo
M18e Tochitaikai (3-11) and M17e Tamashoho (4-10) are toast. M15w Shonannoumi (5-9) and M15e Ryuden (5-9) must win, and even that may not be enough to save them. M16w Nishikigi (6-8) is safe with a win but probably gone with a loss. M11w Shishi (4-10) is safe with a win, but would be on the bubble with a loss.
Yusho race leader J1w Kusano (12-2) and his sole chaser, J5w Wakaikari (11-3), have done enough for a top-division debut. Former Ozeki J1e Mitakeumi (8-6) also has an undeniable promotion case. J2e Hidenoumi (8-6) and J7w Kotoeiho (10-4) would stake promotion claims by winning on senshuraku, while J7e Tomokaze (9-5) must win and hope for a lot of other results to go his way. So we’re looking at a minimum of 3 exchanges and a maximum of 5.
Juryo <-> Makushita
In addition to champion Ms3e Otsuji (7-0) bouncing right back up and absent J11w Wakanosho going down, we now also have J14w Mudoho (5-9) booked for an immediate return trip to Makushita. Ms5e Kyokukaiyu (5-2) held serve by winning his final bout and placing himself second in the promotion queue for the moment. The final three spots in Juryo will come down to him and the participants in two exchange bouts tomorrow: Ms4e Ishizaki (4-2) vs. J10w Hatsuyama (5-9) and Ms4w Kotokuzan (4-2) vs. J13e Miyanokaze (6-8). If both Makushita guys lose, they’re out, the incumbents are safe, and Kyokukaiyu takes Mudoho’s place. If Ishizaki loses and Kotokuzan wins, Kotokuzan and Kyokukaiyu should be exchanged with Mudoho and Miyanokaze. Things get trickier if Ishizaki beats Hatsuyama though. Ishizaki would certainly go up, and Kotokuzan-Miyanokaze would be a straight exchange bout, but the last spot would come down to Kyokukaiyu vs. Hatsuyama, and it’s not clear how that would go.
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The thing with Takayasu is quite interesting. Having consulted the SumoDB I now agree that he is most probably out of Sanyaku. But when it comes to Maegashira ranks, he would probably be number 2 on your list above.
True, but WMH and Oho would be up there too; make-koshi has costs, especially when it’s worse than 7-8.
I shouldn’t have listened to U, Takayasu on K1w would have been a killer guess!
haha, yes, they broke every banzuke-making precedent to make it happen
Questions looking ahead to the banzuke with two Yokozuna, one Ozeki and three Sekiwake:
Y1E & Y1W with Y1W acting as YO1W? Therefore the sole Ozeki is O1E?
Then the third Sekiwake would be S2W to balance things out?
Is that how it works or are there other considerations?
Good question, I haven’t done the research yet.
I’m guessing 5 exchanges:
UP: Kusano, Wakaikari, Hidenoumi, Kotoeiho, Mitakeumi
DOWN: Nishikigi, Ryuden, Shonannoumi, Tamashoho, Tochitaikai
I need to look, but that sounds right
Everyone in makuuchi who needed to win lost, and everyone in juryo won!
I also did some research on the debut of a new Yokuzuna at Y1E: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=1&form1_rank=y1e&form1_debutr=on
Eliminating the cases where there was no prior Yokozuna, we end up with the following banzuke: Hatsu 1995, Nagoya 1973, Haru 1973, Haru 1943, Natsu 1923.
In all cases, the Yokozuna with the best record in the prior basho leapfrogged the current Yokozuna at debut to take Y1E. An additional case is Haru 1970 when both Yokozuna were new, and also there the ranking was determined by their Ozeki record in the prior tournament.
So based on the above, I will guess Onosato as Y1E and Hoshoryu as Y1W.
That’s an interesting question. I will need to look at the most recent shin-yokozuna placements.
Oops! I stand corrected! working from this tabulation and looking at each banzuke:
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=2&form1_rank=O&form2_rank=Y
Since Nagoya 1998 (Wakanohana, Musashimaru, Asashoryu, Hakuho, Haramafuji, Kakaryu, Kisenosato), a shin-Yokozuna had been ranked no higher than Y1W even with a superior record to incumbent Yokozuna(s) in the preceding tournament. Prior to that it was sometimes the case where the shin-Yokozuna with a superior record leapfrogged the incumbent.
The mistake in your query is that U demand for Y1e; then of course U get only Y1e.
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=1&form1_rank=y&form1_debutr=on
The mistake in your query is that U ask for Y1e; then U only get the Y1e, of course.
Try it again with simply a Y in the rank field.
Sorry about that redundant answer, but when I didn’t see the original one, I thought it had gone lost, but it only took longer (probably because of the link).