Andy has questions:
Might Wakatakakage force a third Sekiwake slot to open up? Who will be demoted, who will earn promotion? Does anyone want to be Komusubi in Nagoya?
We’re here for (some) answers!
Yokozuna/Ozeki
Yokozuna Hoshoryu (10-3) did a credible job of staying in the yusho race, and earned his “Yokozuna kachi-koshi” (10+ wins; a term coined by Harumafuji). Hopefully, his physical condition can continue to improve and he can mount a stronger challenge to Onosato in July, when the latter will of course join him at the top rank. Ozeki Kotozakura (8-5) has avoided kadoban, so we are guaranteed at least three Y/O on the banzuke through September.
Sanyaku
Daieisho and Kirishima will be sekiwake again in July, as today’s loss should have ended any faint hopes of promotion for the former, while the latter has to really rue his 8-7 in March. With one more win, komusubi Wakatakakage (10-3) would force an extra slot and join them; he is 3-0 against tomorrow’s opponent, Hiradoumi. Komusubi Takayasu (4-9) is out. So we’ll have either one or two open slots, with two looking a lot more likely. M1e Wakamotoharu (6-7) would claim the first available spot by winning out, but is out of the running with one more loss. The other leading contender is M2e Abi (7-6), who needs one more win for his kachi-koshi; he should be a lock for an available slot with a 9-6, and that may even be enough to force an extra slot if WTK loses out and his brother wins out (though that’s 6 bouts that all need to go a certain way). At 8-7, Abi could conceivably get passed by M6e Oshoma (8-5) or M8e Onokatsu (9-4) if they win out, and that duo would then also be in the lead if WMH and Abi both finish make-koshi. M7e Hakuoho (8-5) and M9e Aonishiki (9-4) still have a shot if a lot of results go their way. I haven’t run through all the permutations, but there might be vanishingly unlikely scenarios in which M3w Hiradoumi (6-7) or maybe even M8w Kinobozan (8-5) could end up at komusubi by winning out.
Division Exchanges
I’ve covered what we know about Juryo <-> Makushita in a previous post. What about Makuuchi <-> Juryo? On the top-division side, M18e Tochitaikai’s (3-10) debut will end after a single basho. M17e Tamashoho (4-9) is set to join him unless he wins out and a lot of other results go his way. M15w Shonannoumi (4-9) is in only slightly better shape. Others still looking for a win or two to ensure a stay are M11w Shishi (3-10), M15e Ryuden (5-8), and M16w Nishikigi (6-7 after a 5-0 start).
In the second division, J1w Kusano (11-2), who arguably should have been promoted last time after his 14-1 yusho from the bottom of the division, is leaving no doubt this time. His sole chaser J5w Wakaikari (10-3) has also likely done enough for a top-division debut, and one more win will make that a certainty. J2e Hidenoumi (8-5) and J1e Mitakeumi (7-6) each need one more win for an undeniable promotion case. The J7 duo of Tomokaze and Kotoeiho, both 9-4, must win out and hope for favorable results elsewhere to have a shot. Tomorrow, we’ll get Mitakeumi vs. Tomokaze and Hidenoumi vs. Kotoeiho.
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Tamashoho staying in Makuuchi would be quite a Houdini act. Even if he won out and Shishi, Ryuden, Shonannoumi, Mitakeumi, Hidenoumi and Wakaikari all lost both bouts, he would still need a little help by the banzuke committee to stay in.
Wakaikari is amazing. He would not only be the youngest rikishi in Makuuchi next basho, but also the lightest and the third shortest one.
Banzuke luck is a real thing
If you’re lucky, you can jump to Sanyaku from below Joi region, if not even M1 Kachi Koshi will not help to step up one rank to Komusubi
Kusano in Makuchi will be interesting.
With around 12 wins he would probably be ranked high as M14
How do you mean Hoshoryu stays in the yusho race, when Onosato already secured it ?
He stayed in contention range until Day 13, which is a decent showing. Up until Onosato won his thirteenth bout, it was still possible for things to play out a way that let Hoshoryu take the yusho, and that means he was a contender for it.
It’s honestly not much of a contendership if it requires the leader losing three times in three days, and I doubt Hoshoryu will be commended for it by the powers that be. He’ll get a “nice to see that he did better than in March”, but that’s about it.
(Or to put it more bluntly, the yusho being decided by Day 13 is a sufficiently rare event that it’s generally seen as “nobody mounted a serious challenge to the winner”.)
How about yun yusho? Sometimes that would even count in a rope run.
With 11 wins he already surpassed the famous Yokozuna/Ozeki-kachikoshi and if he won tomorrow he‘d have had a very good basho IMO. (Without his false start he would even still be in the yusho race.)
Diminishing the performances of his opponents means diminishing the achievement of Onosato, too, and that would be very wrong.
I’ve enjoyed your analyses this tournament Iksumo, thank you!
Looking at the results of day 14, it’s looking like Oshoma will get the nod to Komosubi, Abi needs a Day 15 win to get back there, and WTK will join Kirishima and Daieisho at Sekiwake.
Nishikigi needs a win to avoid the Juryo barge, Tamashoho and Tochitaikai already have reservations there. Shonannnoumi and Ryuden need wins to avoid the trip, losses will get them aboard, but they may already be headed down.
Moving up — Mitakeumi, Kusano, Wakaikari, and Hidenoumi (guaranteed with a win),
Dropping to Makushita — I see Mudoho, Miyanokaze, and Wakanosho, and perhaps Hatsuyama (if he loses the swap match with Ishizaki).
Coming up to Juryo — Otsuji, Kyokukaiyu, Kotokuzan (with a win) and Ishizaki (with a win vs. Hatsuyama)
A wonderfully exciting Senshuraku is up next.
I think Aonishiki will overtake either Abi or Oshoma if he wins against in form Sadanoumi and become K1w. Or will they surprise us one more time and keep Takayasu with a 6-9 if he beats Kirishima?
That would be quite a surprise! A komusubi has gone 6-9 over 100 times in the 6-basho era, and never stayed at the rank.
If I remember right, we had a couple of 6-9 surprises recently. OK, they weren’t in Sanyaku, but still… Anyway Takayasu beating Kirishima would be a surprise in itself.
For me, following the banzuke implications makes the final days much more interesting to watch, especially when the yusho has been decided.
Yes, it‘s really taking away from the end of basho blues!