Natsu Banzuke Review

The Natsu banzuke is out. So, how did my banzuke prediction do? Of the 42 Makuuchi rikishi, 28 were placed at the exact rank, and 3 more were at the correct rank but on the wrong side. That leaves 11 “misses”, 6 of which were off by half a rank, 4 by one full rank, and one (Nishikigi) by a rank and a half. I was most unsure about what exactly was going to happen at the ranks from M5 to M10, and most of the misses happened here, but there were some other head-scratching decisions by the banzuke committee.

What my guess got right:

  • All the sanyaku ranks, including S1w Kirishima ahead of K1e Takayasu and no extra Komusubi slot for M1e Wakamotoharu.
  • The identity of promotions from and demotions to Juryo. Roga, Kayo, Tamashoho, and Tochitaikai made the grade, while Kusano and Hidenoumi did not. Nishikifuji, Shirokuma, Takarafuji, and Mitakeumi dropped out of the top division (Mitakeumi for the first time since his 2015 debut, while Nishikigi and Asakoryu hung on by the skin of their teeth.

What my guess got wrong:

  • Switched M2w Gonoyama and M3e Tamawashi. Apparently Gonoyama got the benefit of being in the joi.
  • Got the order of M4w Ichiyamamoto, M5e Ura, M5w Chiyoshoma, and M6e Oshoma completely wrong. The placement of Ura, who posted a 7-8 record at M5e, ahead of Chiyoshoma, who went 6-9 at M2w, might be the most baffling banzuke decision I’ve ever seen. By the usual banzuke math, Chiyoshoma deserved to be half a rank ahead (5w vs 6e). He was also higher-ranked and had a much tougher schedule. Plus the banzuke committee usually tries to ensure at least a minimal demotion for 7-8 records unless there is no plausible alternative. I really don’t know what to make of this one.
  • M8w Kinbozan ended up ahead of M9e Aonishiki and M9w Midorifuji. Apparently, like with Gonoyama above, his higher rank overcame a half-rank difference in computed rank.
  • My guess had Nishikigi at the very last rank, M18e, because the math placed him in Juryo. The banzuke committee ranked him at M16w. I can see the rationale for placing him ahead of M17e Tamashoho and M18e Tochitaikai, who were coming up from Juryo, but then why didn’t M17w Asakoryu, who computed to the exact same rank as Nishikigi, get the same treatment?

The basho starts in less than two weeks, on Sunday May 11! Stay tuned for Tachiai coverage leading up to and during the tournament. There are many storylines to follow, headlined by whether Yokozuna Hoshoryu can put the March disappointment behind him and if the March champion, Ozeki Onosato, can join him at sumo’s highest rank.

Natsu Banzuke Crystal Ball

I don’t have time for a full prediction post, but thought I’d post my official banzuke guess. I am most unsure about what exactly is going to happen at the ranks from M5 to M10. We’ll find out in a week, but in the meantime, please chime in with your thoughts/guesses in the comments.

Natsu 2025: Shin-Makushita

The upcoming Natsu bashō has a few tsukedashi expected, and we will go into these high performers first. As a side note, I will discuss Student Yokozuna Buckchuluun, who joined Kasugano-stable and has a Makushita Tsukedashi qualification, for the bashō he will first appear on the dohyō. As a foreigner, he will be on his “cool down period” for this tournament.

Aside from the Makushita tsukedashi wrestlers, there are a few other prospects who took the traditional climb up the banzuke to get to division 3. I think there will likely be a few future sekitori amongst this entire crop. As such, I am adding my own opinion about how likely each of these new wrestlers is to join the salaried ranks.

Urayama (浦山)

Stable: Otowayama
Age: 22
Height (cm/feet-inches): 183 / 6’0”
Weight (kg/lbs): 160 / 352
Home prefecture: Tōyama
High School: Tōyama Commercial High
University: Kinki University (Kindai)
Career Record and notes: 0-0-0
Debut: Natsu 2025 (Makushita 60 Tsukedashi)

Possibility to reach sekitori: Very Likely

Urayama is a Tōyama native, like his idol Asanoyama. He has even set his goal to overtake his hero – but promised to show this resolve in results, rather than in words only. He began his sumo studies in second grade, and eventually trained under his own father – Coach Hideki, who also trained Asanoyama, at Tōyama Commercial High School Sumo Club. Of course, he was his father’s great protégé and has been blessed with an excellent sumo physique!

However, in his second year of Kureha Junior High School, his father suddenly passed away. This was not only a tragedy for young Urayama, who was very depressed but vowed to continue and “surpass his father, who was a strong man. I also recall Asanoyama promising to reach sekitori to honor his former coach. One thing I hope to see in this tournament is a battle between Urayama and Asanoyama for the Makushita Title – somehow I would see it as fitting and a great way to demonstrate the excellence of their mentor. In middle school, he was the runner-up in the tournament to determine that year’s middle school
Yokozuna.

Urayama followed his father and hero’s footsteps at Tōyama Commercial High School and Kinki University. He defeated future Ounokatsu in a high school tournament. He served as Kindai’s sumo club captain and performed very well (2 nd place in West Japan Student 135kg+ championship, 1st Place in West Japan 135+kg Championship, 3 rd place in the National Student Sumo Individual Championship 135kg+, Top 8 in the National University and Corporate Sumo Tournament in Kariya, and Top 8 of the National Student Sumo Championship, which earned him the Makushita tsukedashi. For his university team, he helped bring a 3 rd place final in the National Student Meet, 2 nd place at the West Japan Student Sumo Tournament, and the championship at the West Japan Student Newcomer Tournament.

While started working to raise future sumo wrestlers in his hometown, like his father before him, he was asked to become a professional wrestler by Otowayama Oyakata (fomer Kakuryū) last Spring, just before he opened his own stable. He may become Otowayama’s first “home grown” sekitori (as I exclude Kirishima, who was brought up in Michinoku-stable). Otowayama hopes to add to Urayama’s “forward moving sumo” with additional skills. Urayama echoes this sentiment, hoping to “learn technical aspects” from his new Oyakata. He still wants to train young sumo wrestlers, and apparently Otowayama hinted that he may be able to do this in the professional sumo world as well.

Hanaoka (花岡)

Stable: Sakaigawa
Age: 22
Height (cm/feet-inches): 182 / 5’11”
Weight (kg/lbs): 135 / 297
Home prefecture: Kumamoto
High School: Buntoko High
University: Nippon University (Nichidai)
Career Record and notes: 0-0-0
Debut: Natsu 2025 (Makushita 60 Tsukedashi)

Possibility to reach sekitori: Likely

Following in the footsteps of Kusano is fellow Buntoku and Nichidai graduate Hanaoka. However, he is parting ways with Kusano now, by joining Sakaigawa stable. He finished in second place at the Saga Kokuspo Tournament, earning his Makushita Tsukedashi qualification. This tournament also earned Goshima (see last report) and Gyōtoku (see below) their qualifications. Hanaoka became the first ever“four-peat” winner of the National Student Sumo Championship Under 135kg weight class. During that tournament, Hanaoka was repeatedly pushed around, but managed to hold his ground and win at the edge. He lost the East Japan Championship to Goshima, and they often faced each other regularly during their university tournaments. Hanaoka had also earned a Sandanme tsukedashi qualification with his performance in the 102nd Student Championships last year. He has defeated Goshima and Ounokatsu in his college days.

Earlier in life, he won the Wanpaku Sumo tournament back in 5th and 6th grade. Other former two-time winners were Gōeidō and Takanohana – so that should raise some expectations. Back in 2014, he received is trophy from NSK staff Takanohana Oyakata himself. Starting the 6th grade tournament, he had to perform the Yokozuna dohyo iri as a 5 th grade Yokozuna – and that motivated him, saying “I couldn’t lose after I had done the ring-entering ceremony”. Hanaoka started with sumo at the age of 5, introduced by a friend. He found great joy in winning and by throwing (his specialty) older opponents. Growing up, he trained 4 times per week and ate four bowls of rice per day. His initial heroes were Hakuhō and Kotoshōgiku. He has always had is sights set on joining pro-sumo.

Gyōtoku (行徳)

Stable: Tamanoi
Age: 22
Height (cm/feet-inches): 177 / 5’9”
Weight (kg/lbs): 140 / 308
Home prefecture: Tōyama
High School: Adachi Shinden High School
University: Takushoku University
Career Record and notes: 0-0-0
Debut: Natsu 2025 (Makushita 60 Tsukedashi)

Possibility to reach sekitori: 50/50

In comparison to Hanaoka, who always had his sights set on going pro, we have Gyōtoku. Gyōtoku has a unique claim on his Makushita Tsukedashi status. He is a graduate from Takudai, which has produced notable sumo wresters (recent tsukedashi Goshima, current Makushita Asahakuryū and Fujitoshi, and former Sekiwake Tochinonada).  However, it appears that Gyōtoku actually has no sumo university experience.  

Like Hanaoka, sumo has always been a part of his life, as he began in first grade. However, Gyōtoku seemed to have considered sumo has his hobby. In middle school, he trained with the Bunkyo Harigaya sumo club. He further attended Adachi Shinden High (a typical starting point for many Kasugano-beya wrestlers). However, the pandemic stopped the high school tournament circuit – and apparently ended Gyōtoku’s sumo career, as he ended up with little desire to continue with the sport once he joined the university.   Thus, he did not join the Takudai sumo club as a student.

His high school mentor invited him to help coach and he continued to train with his juniors, still in high school.  In his senior year at University, he started to feel the urge to do competitive sumo again and began to participate in corporate sumo events.  He lost in the best 16 to Amateur Yokozuna Ikeda, but managed to finish in 3rd at the All Japan Corporate Sumo Championship – and earned a tsukedashi qualification. He looks forward to meeting his fellow Takudai students (particularly Goshima) in the ring as a professional. 

Murayama (村山)

Stable: Naruto
Age: 22
Height (cm/feet-inches): 169 / 5’6”
Weight (kg/lbs): 137 / 302
Home prefecture: Chiba
High School: Niigata-Kaiyō
University: —
Career Record and notes: 97-75-3 (.564)
Jonokuchi Yūshō: Haru 2021
Debut: Hatsu 2021

Possibility to reach sekitori: Very unlikely

Murayama has been taking sumo since first grade in Chiba. He began attending Katsushika Shiratori Sumo School in fourth grade. In his fifth and sixth years at the national junior high school tournament in Itoigawa City, he finished in third place. He went to developing powerhouse high school Niigata Kaiyō (home school of Ōnosato, Ōshōumi, etc.).

In his second year, he participated in the national high school tournament in Towada, and got second place in the team competition. During a match he was poked in the eye. Despite the injury, he finished as a runner-up – and an exam after the fact revealed a detached retina that required surgery. He was in the top 16 in the high school team competition and also won the Niigata Prefectural tournament in his Junior year.  During his school days, he also got a first degree blackbelt in jūdō. He was recruited during his high school days by Naruto, the third student Naruto plucked from this high school (after Ōshōumi and Marushō). When he joined, he noted his small stature and pushing style was similar to Takakeishō, who he listed as a role model.

His first tournament in professional sumō was a success, winning the Jonokuchi (division 6) championship.  With his strong background, he rose right to mid-Sandanme. However, he stalled in upper Sandanme since end-2022. My feeling is that his height (169cm) may be limiting his overall development.  

Gōseizan (豪聖山)

Stable: Takekuma
Age: 19
Height (cm/feet-inches): 185 / 6’0”
Weight (kg/lbs): 143 / 315
Home country: Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
High School: Hokkaidō Sakae High
University: —
Career Record and notes: 23-3-2
Jonokuchi Yūshō: Aki 2024
Debut: Natsu 2024

Possibility to reach sekitori: Likely

Gōseizan came to Japan as a 17 year old to attend Hokkaidō Sakae and to join their sumo club. As a result, he does not have much history in Japanese sumo. He had to transfer as a sophomore due to restrictions at the height of the pandemic. During his sophomore year, he did place third in the team competition at the National High School Kanazawa Tournament, catching the eye of Takekuma Oyakata and becoming the first foreigner in that stable. Of course, it helped that the high school sumo coach was a classmate of Takekuma Oyakata at Saitama Sakae High School. 

His shikona pays homage to his current stable master (former Gōeidō) and his former high school coach Takayama (the alternate reading of yama is “zan”). When he joined, he was already training at the level of other makushita and sandanme wrestlers at the stable. His first two tournaments were successful, capturing the Jonokuchi Yūshō and going undefeated in Jonidan before withdrawing due to injury.  He also defeated Nishonoseki’s Furuta (former Nittaidai graduate) and Musashigawa’s Nakashima (former division 3) on his way to the championship. His three career losses so far have all been to former division 3 (Makushita) wrestlers, so he is approaching an area on the banzuke where he may face some real competition. 

He is a mainly yotsu-style wrestler, with yorikiri accounting for about 40 percent of his wins.  He has pledged not to return to Mongolia until he reaches sekitori. His model rikishi is Harumafuji!

Daishinkai (大新海)

Stable: Ōtake
Age: 24
Height (cm/feet-inches): 176 / 5’9”
Weight (kg/lbs): 134 / 294
Home country: Niigata
High School: Niigata-Kaiyō
University: —
Career Record and notes: 127-112-6
Debut: Haru 2019

Possibility to reach sekitori: Very unlikely

Daishinkai, whose mother is from the Philippines, began wrestling in his first year at Yamagata Junior High School at the Niigata City Sumo School on the recommendation of his Japanese father (who is a big sumo fan). In his junior year, he placed 32nd in the high school team competition. He was invited to join the Ōtake stable by the oyakata (former wrestler, Dairyū), who came to watch him practice at the school. He is the first wrestler I can recall coming out of Niigata- Kaiyō, which later became famous for its future graduates.  His shikona actually combines the first kanji from his high school (other reading of Nii from Niigata- Kaiyō is shin). So his shikona really pays honor to his high school.

He rapidly rose to Sandanme (Division 4), but struggled to break into Makushita for many years, suffering a knee injury in early 2024 which dropped him back to division 5. It seems he has established his peak, even prior to his injury.  His prior career high rank was in Hatsu 2022. He is a oshi-sumo style wrestler. He enjoys playing games and listening to music.  

Unfortunately, Daishinkai ran into Ikarigata (see below, and this is called foreshadowing of the next wrestler) on the 4th day of the March 2025 tournament. After withstanding Daishinkai’s wild thrusting attack, Ikarigata stopped him with a single plow from his right arm – thrusting him down and wowing the crowd.  Maybe these two can meet up again in Makushita. 

Ikarigata (碇潟)

Stable: Isenoumi
Age: 18
Height (cm/feet-inches): 174 / 5’8”
Weight (kg/lbs): 124 / 273
Home country: Kyōtō
High School: Saitama Sakae
University: —
Career Record and notes: 12-2
Debut: Hatsu 2025 (Sandanme Tsukedashi)

Possibility to reach sekitori: Very likely

So, a person knows he is older when he sees the children of sports people he followed have success.  I used to use sumo as a way to study kanji, and Ōikari was the first wrestler I saw with the “ikari” kanji, meaning anchor.  As a kid who grew up liking all things battleships, I thought he had a neat shikona.  Well, years later he has two sons in professional sumo who have inherited the “ikari” part of the shikona. Ikarigata is only a few steps behind his sekitori brother, Wakaikari.  The shikona “Ikarigata” is inspired by an older, Meiji-era, Kyōtō-based sumo wrestler. The original Ikarigata, active in the early 1900s, was even able to defeat the 22nd Yokozuna, Tachiyama!

Of course, being born into a sumo family, he had a chance to start his sport from an early age. He experienced success early on, too, getting to the quarter finals of the All-Japan Prefectural Junior High School Tournament in his third year. Like his brother, he went to Saitama Sakae High school.  He continued to have great success there, placing third in the 100kg+ weight class at the All Japan in his sophomore year and leading Team Japan to its victory in the Junior Sumo World Championships. Most importantly, he got third place in the National Sports Festival – which earned him a special dispensation to join as a Sandanme (division 4) tsukedashi – the first high schooler to accomplish this distinction and use it (Anhibiki beat him to the punch but declined the tsukedashi qualification and started from the bottom). 

He started his career with repeat 6-1 records in Sandanme, easily moving up into Makushita in only his third professional tournament in May.  His goal is to pass both his older brother and his father’s ranks with his spirited sumo.  Furthermore, he wants to make Sekitori in three years.

The “Ikari” brothers have known some tragedy in life – their sister passing away at the age of 14 months in 2013 and their mother died suddenly from cancer in June of the same year.