Congratulations to Onosato on his unprecedented 3rd yusho in just eight top-division tournaments. With the March results in the books, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how they are likely to reshuffle the rankings for May.
Ozeki: The championship by Onosato heralds the start of a Yokozuna run. There’s a wide range of opinions on what result he needs for promotion, aside from the fact that it has to be a yusho or a jun-yusho. Personally, I favor the hypothesis that any yusho (even an 11-4) will do it, but that the relatively low total of 12 wins this time means that a second-place finish will suffice only with 14 wins. Kotozakura’s 8-7 finish means that we’ll have two Ozeki in good standing in May. With 20 wins at Sekiwake over the past two basho, Daieisho could be said to be on an Ozeki run, but 13 wins at Natsu is going to be a tough ask.
Sekiwake/Komusubi: S1e Daieisho (9-6) and K1e Kirishima (8-7) have successfully defended their places in the named ranks. S1w Oho (6-9) will drop out of san’yaku, as will K1w Abi (6-9), so we have to find two rikishi to fill their spots. I have Kirishima as the leading candidate for S1w, although a case can be made for M4e Takayasu (12-3). If he doesn’t leapfrog Kirishima, Takayasu should be ranked K1e, with M1e Wakatakakage (9-6) bouncing right back up to K1w. His brother, M1w Wakamotoharu (9-6), posted the same score from the same rank, but because he was ranked on the West side, he’ll probably just miss out, unless the banzuke committee decides that he’s done enough to force open an extra Komusubi slot.
Joi Maegashira: These are the 9 to 10 rank-and-filers who are expected to face a full slate of san’yaku opponents, barring withdrawals of course. Assuming he doesn’t make Komusubi, Wakamotoharu should be a lock for the top maegashira spot. He should be followed, in some order, by the two san’yaku dropouts, Oho and Abi, plus upper maegashira with losing records that won’t drop them too far—Gonoyama, Chiyoshoma, Ichiyamamoto—and those with winning records from sufficiently high ranks—Tamawashi, Hiradoumi, Takerufuji, Oshoma. Tobizaru and Ura should fall just outside these ranks, while the likes of Hakuoho, Churanoumi, Onokatsu, Aonishiki, Midorifuji and Meisei won’t rise quite that high.
Makuuchi/Juryo: The four leading demotion candidates, in order, are M12e Nishikifuji (0-2-13), M17w Shirokuma (5-10), M12e Takarafuji (3-12), and M17e Mitakeumi (6-9). Two others are in some danger: M10e Nishikigi (3-12) and M16e Asakoryu (6-9). Four Juryo rikishi have rank-record combinations that warrant promotion, and should replace the four incumbents above: J3e Roga (11-4), J2e Kayo (9-6), J1e Tamashoho (8-7), and J3w Tochitaikai (9-6). Two others are on the border: J6w Hidenoumi (10-5) and the yusho winner in his sekitori debut, J14w Kusano (14-1). I’d say three exchanges are certain, and while I wouldn’t put the odds of Mitakeumi surviving at the expense of Tochitaikai at zero, I consider this highly unlikely. My current guess is that Nishikigi and Asakoryu will just barely get to stay, but it would not shock me to see one or both replaced with Hidenoumi and/or Kusano.
Juryo/Makushita: The benefit of posting this a couple of days after the basho is that we don’t have to guess, at least on the promotion side, since these are announced immediately after the banzuke meeting so that the new sekitori can start preparing for their elevated status. Going up are Ms1e Miyagi (4-3), Ms2e Daiamami (4-3), Ms4w Mita (5-2), and Ms3w Mudoho (4-3). All but the former maegashira Daiamami will be making their Juryo debut. The corresponding demotions are not announced, but based on the records, we know that they are injury victim J12w Kiryuko (2-5-8), J14e Otsuji (5-10), absent J2w Kitanowaka, and top-division stalwart J8e Hokutofuji (3-12), unless he opts to retire.
The rankings will come out on April 28. Time permitting, I’ll have a full Crystal Ball post closer to then. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
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Mitakeumi should just hang it up. Great run. I don’t want to see him in Juryo.
Agree. It’s amazing to see how relatively quickly a top-flight wrestler can lose his ability to back an opponent up and/or to withstand an opponent’s pushing and thrusting.
There’s been a lot of speculation along those lines. He didn’t retire immediately after the basho, but that doesn’t mean he has to show up and fight in Juryo if he does drop. Similarly for Hokutofuji dropping to Makushita.
And Takarafuji? I know he did fight in Juryo a year ago and scraped his eight wins together. But then he had fallen down with a 6-9, this time it’s a 3-12 and he made a very tired impression on me.
He looked almost as unwell as Endo..
I hope they go for 3 Komosubi, both Waka brothers deserve a promotion
The NSK tightened up the allotment of supernumary sanyaku slots about twenty years ago; since that time a 10-5 at M1 has been needed to get a K2 slot (and an 11-4 at K has been needed to get an S2 slot).
Except for the crazy logjam banzuke after Kyushu 2022…
There have been other exceptions, it seems: 2019.09 and 2022.07.
Oh, M1 EAST is different—any KK there has earned promotion (since 1969), and that can have cascading implications for others.
M1 WEST was not mentioned, therefore my query was for M1 to K2.
But I see now that a KK from M1e is really enough without exception, even if that means an additional slot in sanyaku. Very helpful knowledge for a GTB to come, I‘m sure.
Now do the same with K1E to S. I really want some decisiveness around my choice to move Kirishima up to Sekiwake.
It’s not at all uncommon for K1e to stay there with 8-10 wins when no S slot is open; heck, Abi did 3 basho in a row in 2019. The question is whether they ever get leapfrogged if there’s an open S slot, and that’s harder to query. https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=2&form1_rank=k1e&form1_wins=kk&form1_year=2000-now&form2_highlight=on&form2_rank=s
Yeah, this is the one I am going back-and-forth on. I’ll probably flip a coin.
You can click through these 24 results to see who ended up at S, let me know what you learn. https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=k1e&form1_wins=kk&form1_year=2000-now&form2_rank=k1e
For my own decision making I found Kyushu 2015 most convincing. We had Ikioi on M4e with a 12-3 jun yusho exactly as Takayasu now (only without a playoff). Then there was Yoshikaze on K1w (yes, west even!) with an 8-7. And guess who was promoted to sekiwake?
So chairman Hakkaku’s stable that had 2 rikishi in the top division in November, will not have a single sekitori in May and possibly a new heyagashira (is that correct?) with the name Hokutomaru.
@Iksumo:
I’m mostly agreeing with your Makuuchi/Juryo exchange Iksumo except for Takarafuji. Even with is very low 3-12 record at M12, i believe he will still be save and be sent at the bottom of the division at the sole M18 rank.
And that it’ll be Asakoryu at M16 with his 6-9 that will be sent down.
I also believe there will only be 4 exchange.
And that Kunano, despite his incredible 14-1 down in Juryo will only have to settle for J1 and will have to at least do a second tournament in Juryo. Even with that 14-1, at J14 (West even), he is just too far down. Maybe a 15-0, i would say….ok. But 14-1, no.
Terunofuji when he was on his way back to the top division went 13-2 with the Yusho at J13 West and only when up to J3. And he was an ex-ozeki that the elder knew very well he was definately on his way to belong in the top division. Still, they made him stay another basho in Juryo.
Kusano did great, but i’m sure the elder keep in mind that he his still a “rookie”. And that they are probably thinking that a bit more experience in the second division would be better for his “growth” as a probably futur Makuuchi mainstay.
Sometime….going up very too fast can just make a young good rikishi hit a very hard wall when he should take a bit more time to mature down there. It would also give them a second look at his talent and make sure that he really has skill that overshoot Juryo level of talent.
If they would really need a fifth rikishi to go to Makuuchi, Hidenoumi would be indeed the pick. (But i doubt they will.)
Hidenoumi will probably share J1 with Kusano.
Terunofuji went 13-2 in his second Juryo stint indeed.
But it was from J11e and he was promoted to M16w…
Hum….no according to SumoDB.
Are you sure you are looking at the right rikishi and at the right time ?
In January 2020, Terunofuji was J13 west and he ended up with a 13-2 yusho.
In March 2020, he entered the tournament at J3 East.
Oh, I‘m so sorry, I got him mixed up with Takerufuji, who last year was on his way back to Makuuchi with a 13-2 in Juryo, but who of course isn’t an ex-ozeki.
I‘m shocked that not only did I check the wrong rikishi, but in my answer I wrote the right name. What a mess. I apologize again.
The two are a good comparison, though. Kusano is between them (in terms of destination, not origin). My pick is he stays in Juryo.
I tend to agree with most of this, but it would be unusual for Asakoryu to be demoted ahead of Takarafuji. They were 4 ranks apart, and Asakoryu had 3 more wins, which usually equates to 6 ranks. And history is also against Takarafuji. Asakoryu certainly deserves to go down, so if he stays, it’s only because there isn’t a good enough 5th promotion candidate.
Great article and I agree 100%.
That said I still chose Kusano for M18 in my GTB. Having seen him fight I simply think it would be a waste to keep him in Juryo.
I‘m very glad Daiamami is back in the sekitori ranks. I once saw him in an interview on TV and he seemed very humble and endearing.
(Btw Daiamami was 3-3, but then he got a fusen against Hokutofuji and so his final record of course was a 4-3.)
Savarros = Checkit
Don’t know who that is, never heard of this name, but i can assure you that this is 100% false !
I never wrote anything under this name. I always used my current name.
(I also write very very rarely.)
I agree that I’m not checkit and I also don’t agree with his assumption that Asakoryu gets demoted over Takarafuji. I share his opinion, that another Juryo basho doesn’t hurt Kusano, but I doubt such thoughts have any impact on the decisions by the banzuke comittee ;-)
I could see Daieisho getting the nod with 12. He’s generally been solid enough in his career that he won’t be an embarrassment.
They could also take a chance on Onosato given his unprecedented run, especially if Hoshoryu is less than impressive. It could be a safe bet that if both of them were yokozuna, Onosato will be the east Y more often than not.
I like Daieisho, but I think he’s a solid sekiwake, not an ozeki. Since he first entered sanyaku, he’s had 11 double digit basho out of 27. And that’s been consistent, there isn’t an upward trend. Certainly he should be promoted if he gets the 33, but I don’t think he needs special treatment.
Maybe if it’s a 12-3 yusho…
If hypothetical Daieisho had been promoted to ozeki when he made 32 wins from January to May 2023 and then gone on to post the exact same results that real-world Daieisho has, everybody would be saying right now what a rock-solid ozeki he has been. So no, he’s not a solid sekiwake. He’s an ozeki-caliber rikishi who has spent the last two years fighting out of the wrong ranks.
As Sanyaku he made 31 wins.
Do U belong to those who speak of an „ozeki-kachikoshi“ of ten wins?
Because that he reached only two times in that period (Hoshoryu and Kotozakura seven times each, if I counted correctly). Rock-solid ozeki? I don’t know.
The ONLY counterpoint I have is that the story around Daieisho, seemingly EVERY tournament is how he’s so close to an Ozeki run, ie, getting around 10 wins. But he’s not really featuring in yusho races…going to that next level like Onosato.
I also have Nishikigi and Asakoryu at the very bottom. Still scratching my head on the rank order of the seven spots above them.
Wakamotoharu compared to his brother did post a better score against the Top 7 at 4-3 and beat both ozeki, whereas Wakatakakage did 3-4 in those seven matchups and lost to both ozeki. So I might rank WMH above WTK. In my heart I would like to see an S2 for Takayasu and then put both Wakas in K1 spots.
I’m very happy that Mudoho managed to sneak into sekitori ranks despite losing his last bout. Unlucky for Kitanowaka, who had to go instead, but they arent very lenient with absent rikishi, especially in Juryo. Hope his younger brother catching up will give Oho a push.
I can see the incumbent bias save Mitakeumi at the cost of Tochitaikai, but I feel that would be really hard to justify. I always liked Mitakeumi, but it was hard watching him this basho. For whatever reason he just didn’t have any power left. Those 6 wins already look like a miracle. If he can’t fix, whatever was holding him back, he will probably be on a fast track to Makushita.
I pretty much agree with everything you wrote. I’m a little bit dissapointed that Daieisho lost tht last bout to Churanoumi, but I thinka solid next tournament could still yield a promotion. With Kotozakura being shaky and Onosato potentially on the way up, they might want to bolster the Ozeki ranks with a workable candidate. Wouldn’t be surprised, if 32 wins would be enough. Still a tall order. Daieisho has only achieved 12 or more wins twice.
I think the first four ranks will be Wakamotoharu, Oho, Abi and Gonoyama in that order followed by Tamawashi, Hiradoumi and Takerufuji with all the other makekoshi sorting in behind that. They could place Tamawashi ahead of Gonoyama, but I think they will favor the higher ranked here.
Most difficult to rank will probably be Takanosho and Shonannoumi.
I’ve got Takanosho slotting in at the end of the section in the middle that will have a bunch of harsh under-promotions and over-demotions. And Shonannoumi’s placement seems reasonable. It’s roughly M7-M11 that looks like a nightmare to fill out. Like, what do you do with guys like Kinbozan and Atamifuji?
Yes, 8 and 10 appear to be popular destinations in particular..
There’s a stretch of 11 slots where it’s hard to find an alternative to over-demoting and under-promoting at least 8 guys 😩
Imagine Mitakeumi gets a reprieve and is ranked M18E, but then in May through a combination of lost power, poor morale and injury/kyujo gets no wins at all at the next basho, could he feasibly be demoted 15 ranks from M18E to Ms1E therefore falling two divisions right through Juryo to the top of Makushita. Has that ever happened to anyone?
The only example is from 1929, when everything about the banzuke was completely different. In modern times, it’s pretty much a rule that you don’t drop someone more than one division. We’ve seen someone go 0-0-15 from M17 twice, most recently in 2014, and they both ended up at J12, which is the lowest anyone has gone from Makuuchi.
Ah yes, Shionohama in March 1928 seems to be the last person to fall from M to Ms without stopping in Juryo! But looking at his win/loss records around that time, something weird has happened in the sumogames database. The M11 rank must be a typo (could have been Ms11?) as in the top division banzuke for the March 1928 tournament at M11 there is a “Shiogahama” – mistaken identity I think!
https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=3734
Interesting; sure looks like a typo or some other weirdness with old banzuke…
No, that’s all correct. Following the Tokyo-Osaka merger they briefly made an ill-advised attempt to have separate rankings for tournaments in Tokyo and tournaments elsewhere.
Consequently, Shiogahama’s results and rank changes should be read like this:
Tokyo:
1927.01 J4e 2-4
1927.05 J12e 2-4
1928.01 Ms7e 1-2-3
and
Nagoya/Hiroshima/Osaka:
1927.03 J4e 6-5
1927.10 J3w 8-3
1928.03 M11e 3-8
Makes complete sense when read separately, but obviously not as a single chronology. At that point – many other rikishi were similarly, if not quite as drastically, affected – the Association threw up their hands and recognized what an insane idea it had been, scrapped the not-Tokyo banzuke line, and going forward they decided to create a joint banzuke that would always be in effect for two tournaments, one in Tokyo and one elsewhere. (Still not the brightest idea, but anyway…)
The first one under the re-revised system was thus based on the last Tokyo results only, which was bad luck for Shiogahama as it meant
1928.01 Ms7e 1-2-3
1928.05 Ms16w 2-4 and 1928.10 Ms16w 5-1
In other words, there was never really a “demotion from makuuchi to makushita”.
For the next two-tournament banzuke they used these two scores as the basis but also recognized the results from the last not-Tokyo basho (1928.03) that hadn’t been used for any re-ranking yet, creating some sort of three-way merger mumbo-jumbo ranking which placed Shiogahama at
1929.01 and 1929.03 J5w
His two makushita results alone wouldn’t have put him back into the middle of juryo, that happened because he received significant credit for the result he had scored up in the top division.
Afterwards they used the combined scores of each two-tournament block:
1929.01/.03 J5w 5-6 + 7-4 (total 12-10)
1929.05/.10 J3e 8-3 + 7-4 (total 15-7)
1930.01/.03 M11w 2-9 + 5-6 (total 7-15)
1930.05/.10 J4w etc.
So, as the saying goes, “it makes sense in context”.
PS:
Try querying the DB for first basho makushita, second basho jonidan. ;)
Ah, thank you, I was wondering if it was the alternating banzuke weirdness, which I only know about from you and don’t have a firm grasp on at all.
Wow, that’s interesting, thanks for explaining all those decisions from 98 years ago! Without your explanation I would never have guessed that there was a logic behind that series of ranks.
The concept of the alternating banzuke didn’t last very long however – too complicated for the “real world” I would think.
“What’s your rank?”
“In or outside Tokyo?”
„I‘ve just won the Makuuchi yusho in Tokyo, next basho in Osaka I have to fight in Juryo.“
So nobody seems to have done exactly this, but the guy at the bottom of this banzuke came awfully close: https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=193003#M
Great, thanks.
If I get it right the poor guy couldn’t even profit of his 9-2; must have been the last non-Tokyo banzuke.
Btw. there is also an ozeki called Onosato. Any known relation? Or is it common practice to chose a shikona that was used before?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C5%8Cnosato_Daiki#Professional_debut
The amusing thing is – pro-wrestling fans might vaguely recognize the WWE’s “brand split” concept in there, just 75 years earlier. Obviously it’s a much worse fit for a real sport though, and the fact that the Sumo Association used the same roster of wrestlers for both brands simultaneously made it completely unworkable.
Based on the previous few tournaments I feel like Ozeki is a rank that will make or break a wrestler. Really sad to see Mitakeumi fall down the ranks and now go to Juryo. Had high hopes for kirishima but he has some work to do to get back to Ozeki. Still on the fence about Hoshuryu being yokozuna but let’s see
I don’t see it as Wakamotoharu forcing a Komusubi slot to be added but Takayasu forcing an additional sekiwake slot. Kirishima, while not stellar, performed well enough to take Oho’s spot and Takayasu’s performance was good enough to say “yeah he’s a sekiwake”. Since Abi and Oho did poorly enough to drop out of the san’yaku ranks, that would mean both Onami brothers would be promoted to fulfill the requirement for two Komusubi.
It takes 11 wins at komusubi to force a sekiwake promotion; Takayasu got 12 but at M4.