I took a preliminary look at the Haru banzuke right after the Hatsu basho concluded. Now, here’s the full guess. Scroll down for some quick notes about the biggest question marks. The banzuke will be released on Tuesday February 25 (Japan time), a day later than usual, because Sunday the 23rd is the Emperor’s birthday. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
- I went with Kirishima over Oho at S1w due to the former’s higher rank and prior sanyaku experience.
- I picked K1e Abi (7-8) over M3e Gonoyama (8-7) for K1w.
- I ordered the rikishi most likely to occupy M4w-M5w broken as follows: M4w Ura (7-8), who was in the joi, then M14w Kinbozan (12-3) ahead of M6w Ichiyamamoto (8-7) due to more wins. There’s a chance that M5e Hiradoumi (7-8) will get pushed ahead of one or both of them.
- I pushed M4e Shodai (6-9) and M2w Atamifuji (5-10) ahead of M11w Takerufuji (10-5) and M10e Tamawashi (9-6) because they were in the joi.
- I put 15e Hakuoho (10-5) ahead of 7e Endo (6-9) at M9 by virtue of more wins.
- I put M10w Meisei (6-9) ahead of M8w Takarafuji (5-10) by virtue of more wins.
- I put M17e Nishikifuji (9-6) ahead of all the Juryo promotions by virtue of his being in Makuuchi and having a better than minimal winning record.
- I put Churanoumi ahead of Sadanoumi by virtue of incumbent preference.
- I put Asakoryu ahead of the 3 Makuuchi incumbents who earned demotable records but are staying due to a lack of additional replacement candidates in Juryo.
- I put M13w Kotoshoho (5-10) ahead of M7w Mitakeumi (2-3) by virtue of more wins.
- I put Shirokuma, who didn’t quite have a promotion case, in the last position (the newly reestablished M18e) but opted to promote him over keeping Tamashoho.
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Not that I don’t like Tamashoho but I like your call. I’m pretty excited about this one. It’s like these banzuke are starting to look like, “The Future” of sumo (at least the young guns for the next 5-10 years) with a few veteran favorites still hanging around.
What’s the odds of the M18 slot being west rather than east? I put it west to balance out east and west with 21 each.
I have 22 picks matching you outright and had 4 on the other side of the ranking (Takayasu, Ichiyamamoto, Atamifuji and Sadanoumi).
Gonna be nice to see how we do.
We had M18 a couple of times, Haru 2020 and Hatsu 2022, and both times it was 18e, despite the fact that this meant 22 east and 20 west. I think the balance thing is for the physical banzuke, where higher rank corresponds to larger characters, so shifting M18 doesn’t really help much…
If it‘s just one of a pair, wouldn‘t that always be east? Feels natural. Sole Yokozuna would never be west, even if makekoshi (in a bad dream…). No?
If it’s one Y and one O though, they’ve gone Ye, Ow for balance.
I had Tamashoho staying up, largely on account of feeling like he deserved a break after being banned from towel-biting..
Thanks for the explanations of tie-breakers – very interesting!
Thanks for detailing your reasoning! This will help me next time :)
I failed to give joi credit, so I ended up with Ichiyamamoto & Ura reversed, Takerufuji & Shodai reversed and Tamawashi & Atamifuji reversed. I had Churanoumi ahead of all the Juryo promotions, which throws everyone off a half rank for a bit. I also had Kotoshoho & Mitakeumi reversed.
All of those are defensible choices, IMHO. Shodai overdemoted to M7w feels like the most speculative one among those to me, but I do know of at least one acknowledged high level GTB player who has done the other overdemotion (Atamifuji to M8e).
This is actually a pretty fun makuuchi banzuke to guess. Tricky and lots of ways to get things wrong, but it’s because there are many reasonable options all over the ranks, as opposed to other editions where there are large areas with no reasonable options and GTB comes down to trying to predict which bad ones they’ve gone with. That’s always a chore.
Exactly; it’s pretty easy to get everyone within a rank or so, but at most half of the 42 picks feel like locks for the exact rank.
The best part about this banzuke is Yokozuna Hoshoryu!!!
Will it be a scheduling headache with all six Isegahama rikishi between M7e and M13e?
Yeah if I did the math right it reduces the number of possible matchups among those ranks from 78 to 63, so it’s not a disaster but it will lead to some bouts with bigger rank differences than usual.
I agree The Old Man, here’s hoping Hoshoryu keeps his head in the game! His form’s been good for two tournaments; long may it continue.
Fascinating banzuke predictions and analysis, thank you ! I am just chatting about it with a couple of my fellow sumo-loving colleagues over a cup of coffee. It seems a very long time since the January basho doesn’t it?
Now, is Kirishima going to stay on form and recover his Ozeki position, and is Kotozakura (Mr. Stay-Puft) going to fall by the wayside entirely, or pick himself up again? Will Kinbozan have another amazing tournament, and will Takerufuji’s delicate-seeming ankles hold up to the rough and tumble of the dohyo? How many henka will there be, will the Waka bros fix whatever is ailing them, and Abi just blast his way through everyone on his way to a higher rank again?
I hope Ryuden holds on to his makuuchi rank this time, and Oho, well I hope he just keeps on getting better. The two Ukranians, very interested to see how they do.
Another exciting basho on the way – can’t wait! and when, oh, when, are those Royal Albert Hall sumo tickets going on sale?……early 2025 they said…..well the daffodils are up, the hazel trees have catkins, the crocuses are out. It’s rapidly heading towards Spring.
I suspect that, similar to Terunofunji, a large weight has been lifted off of Hoshoryu’s shoulders now that he is a Yokozuna. There will be more time and space mentally to focus on performing sumo at a high level combined with a drive to honor his rank.
Grats to Chiyosoma for his career highest rank.
He reached M2w once before, in 2017, when he went 5-10.
Good to see Gonoyama advancing
The official Banzuke has been posted, see it here: https://www.sumo.or.jp/EnHonbashoBanzuke/index/
Only a few differences from Iksumo’s divining, most notably Oho got the other Sekiwake spot instead of Former Ozeki Kirishima, who gets E Komusubi.
Yeah, I don’t think I missed anyone by more than a rank, though my guess had quite a few half-rank flips relative to the official banzuke.
Having looked more closely, my guess placed 29 guys at the exact spot, 1 at the right rank but on the wrong side, 9 off by one spot on the banzuke but at the wrong rank, so zero GTB points, and 3 off by two spots or one full rank (Ichiyamamoto, Takerufuji, and Atamifuji). I think the fact that 9/10 off-by-ones scored zero points is pretty unlucky.
Pretty, pretty, pretty good prognostication over all. It’s great having something to geek out on before the Kyokai publishes.
Anyone know if there are any Banzuke’s available for sale anywhere? I’d be cool to get the first Hoshoryu Yokozuna Banzuke.
Look up Sumo Soul on social media, he usually has them and is a good and reliable person.
https://bsky.app/profile/sumosoul.bsky.social/post/3lj6urdeuck2c
Ah that‘s great! Many thanks!
Awww, they didn’t keep Tamashoho up.. :(
Otherwise, I think I didn’t have anything more than a neighbour swap (although some between ranks, like Oho)..
Just so you’re aware, if you’re a Friend of the Royal Albert Hall (you may remember I mentioned this as a way to get priority booking for October’s Sumo Tournament), then be aware that these PRIORITY only tickets come on sale on Wednesday 5th March.
Watch this space!
I hate to think how much the tickets will cost if a “premium stalls” seat plus a glass of champagne and a meal with wine at their posh restaurant costs almost £600. Even if you allow a pretty outrageous £150 for the champagne and the meal, that still leaves the actual seat at £350! Which I suppose makes the £45 for becoming a Friend and getting early booking seem pretty negligible in comparison.
As you can see, it actually left me so stunned that I was temporarily unable to do a simple subtraction sum! The seat would of course be £450, not £350. Even worse now!
Good luck Betty with getting the tickets you want. We will be sending you good Ozumo vibes, this Wednesday! 😃
Thank you Karen 😁
Angelus, I have no idea how much the seats in the stalls are, OMG, I hope they’re not that expensive !!! 😫
I know I can get either a cheap flight or Eurostar, but that would be crazy pricing.
Oh well 45 mins to go. Fingers crossed.
My first failed attempt at calculating the seat price was correct – the most expensive seat (well in this case a cushion) for Sunday was £350 so they are adding a crazy amount for the hospitality package. I’m too old for cushions so I bought a £240 seat in the stalls.
Hey Angela’s, well done on getting a ticket!!
I am shocked at how little was available by 8 minutes past 10 UK time. I hope it’s everything you could want as an experience!
Sorry damn autocorrect -Angelus.
OMG. That’s all I can say. OMG.😲
After waiting 45 minutes in the pre-waiting room, as soon as the tickets came up, the only tickets available in the stalls were unaffordable. It was GBP240 per ticket to sit up in the gods. I had a per ticket limit, and couldn’t justify those prices.
Oh well, I’ll keep checking but feeling a bit sad. On the upside, the money ‘saved’ can get added to the ‘visit Japan’ holiday fund…
hums always look on the bright side of life….
I suspect a fair amount of corporate pre sales too as there weren’t that many tickets available on ANY of the days grump 🙄
Yes, probably true. The “waiting room” thing is bizarre, though, even though they seem to be using a third-party agency for the actually ticket sales they need to restrict the number of people actually buying at any one time? I only had to wait a few minutes to be graciously permitted to buy a ticket, so I guess I got lucky.
But adding the money to your Japan holiday fund sounds like a great idea. I went there some years back in early April for hanami so no sumo on, but I did get to see Hakkaku-oyakata putting his junior wrestlers through their paces at his stable. Brutal stuff, but I shall never forget the smell – mud, sweat, liniment and chankonabe all mixing together!