On top of all the normal excitement for the first basho of the year, Hatsu 2025 brings the added anticipation of a potential double Yokozuna promotion. With Kotozakura and Hoshoryu both on rope runs, how likely are we to see two new Yokozuna in March?
Taken individually, both men are in range of “normal” pre-Yokozuna careers. Since 1958, wrestlers promoted to Yokozuna have needed an average of 32 tournaments in makuuchi to achieve the rank. Kotozakura is in his 28th tournament and Hoshoryu is only one behind at 27. Both rikishi are in the average range of others promoted to Yokozuna.
| Shikona | Basho to Promotion |
| Taiho | 11 |
| Futahaguro | 12 |
| Asashoryu | 13 |
| Kitanoumi | 15 |
| Wajima | 15 |
| Akebono | 15 |
| Kashiwado | 19 |
| Hakuho | 19 |
| Chiyonofuji | 22 |
| Hokutoumi | 23 |
| Tochinoumi | 23 |
| Sadanoyama | 25 |
| Takanohana | 26 |
| Wakanohana (56) | 27 |
| Onokuni | 28 |
| Wakanohana (45) | 31 |
| Terunofuji | 31 |
| Asashio | 35 |
| Tamanoumi | 36 |
| Kitanofuji | 37 |
| Takanosato | 43 |
| Kakuryu | 44 |
| Asahifuji | 45 |
| Musashimaru | 46 |
| Harumafuji | 47 |
| Wakanohana (66) | 47 |
| Kotozakura | 57 |
| Mienoumi | 60 |
| Kisenosato | 73 |
In the case of Hoshoryu, a promotion would be somewhat surprising only because of how precisely “on average” he has been. As seen in the table below, The Nephew has been right on pace with the number of tournaments spent at every level. A top performance and promotion in January would be 4 tournaments early!
|
Tournaments at rank | |||||
| Ozeki | Sekiwake | Komusubi | Maegashira | Total | |
| Average* | 13.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 9.4 | 31.9 |
| Kotozakura | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 28 |
| Hoshoryu | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
- 1958-Present
If either Kotozakura or Hoshoryu earn promotion, it would be unremarkable. But what about both? While it has only happened in 1961 and 1970, the two have something in their favor. In both previous double-promotions, the rikishi were on similar career arcs to one another. In January 1970, Tamanoumi was promoted after his 36th Makuuchi tournament. Kitanofuji joined him after his 37th tournament. Similarly, in September 1961, Taiho was promoted after only his 11th tournament. While Kashiwado got the rope after his 19th basho. The 8 basho gap seems significant; but only 8 men have achieved the rank of Yokozuna in under 20 tournaments: so they are in a similar grouping. The 28 tournaments for Kotozakura and 27 for Hoshoryu fit the pattern of rikishi at similar stages in their career enjoying simultaneous promotion.
In the modern area, there has been one joint promotion of fast risers in 1961 and one joint promotion of slightly slower than average champions in 1970. Perhaps we are due for a pair of slightly faster than average ascenders in 2025. But it seems highly unlikely.
In a fitting twist, the sumo spirits seem to have other pairs ready to ruin the party. At the top Terunofuji is set to appear and reassert his dominance. An even greater threat is probably Onosato. Right below the Ozeki, the Waka- brothers will be looking to continue their rise. And further down still, Takerufuji and Hakuoho seem set to rack up early wins against overmatched opponents in hopes of playing late spoilers.
January 12th can’t get here soon enough!
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Nice post. Gut feeling tells me neither will get it, and as you say there are so many other variables in the equation
Wouldn’t surprise me to see Onosato get a better result than at least one of them
Yes, we‘re back in Tokyo which is Onosato ground.
In three basho there he had the yusho twice and the jun yusho in his debut tournament!
(He‘s 36-9 there and 29-16 „abroad“.) Therefore he is my main favorite.
That said I know that six tournaments are not enough to prove a pattern and I simply hope for a great basho with the three Ozeki and the Yokozuna in the yusho race.
That’s an interesting point. If he’s going to be promoted, he’ll need to have a great basho “abroad.”
I agree there are similarities with Kotozakura and Hoshoryu now and with the situations of the previous double Yokozuna promotions. However, the previous double promotions were also quite unusual, because Kashiwado and Tamanoumi had only 23 wins in the two bashos before promotion and 0 Yushos in them. Would Hoshoryu get promotion without championship in this tournament even with 14-1 D?
Well analysed and everyone important is mentioned, including the dark horses near the bottom of the Banzuke – Takerufuji and Hakuoho.
One thing that distinguishes the two front runners is the recent rhetoric and coverage; Kotozakura’s has been all about already being a Yokozuna, the responsibilities, the family connection, the legacy almost the firegone conclusion and I think he may have got ahead of himself. Perhaps too much pressure put on himself by himself.
Hoshoryu has been downplaying the whole thing and instead he’s just trained very hard and seems to be in a better mental state for it.
Can’t wait to see how it all plays out and what role, if any, Terunofuji will play as he is so keen to retire.
GO KOTOZAKURA!!!
Gotta say, ‘come on guys, make it a stand out basho (and come on Hoshoryu!)’. I shall be up at 0430 for the opening ceremony on NHK !!
It feels like ages since November….
Gotta say, ‘come on guys, make it a stand out basho (and come on Hoshoryu!)’. I shall be up at 0430 for the opening ceremony on NHK !!
It feels like ages since November….
Can’t wait. Want to see one more Teru yusho, but feel Hoshoryu’s sumo is the most versatile + is peaking. Onosato is just a matter of time unless they all figure out how to derail his freight train style + great foot work.
Onosato looked rusty last night.