
Congratulations to Onosato for what we hope is the first of many yusho! Now that the bouts are over and all the hardware has been handed out, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how the results are likely to reshuffle the rankings.
The Named Ranks
Terunofuji will remain the sole Yokozuna; Tachiai wishes him as complete a recovery as possible, with the hope that he can fully participate in the Nagoya basho. The result of the final Natsu bout means that O1e Hoshoryu (10-5) will switch positions with O1w Kotozakura (11-4). O2e Takakeisho (0-2-13) will be kadoban, requiring 8 wins in July to save his rank. And O2w Kirishima (1-6-8) suffered his second losing record in a row, which means that he’ll fall to Sekiwake, with one shot to regain the Ozeki rank with double-digit wins in Nagoya. S1w Abi (10-5) successfully defended his rank with his best san’yaku performance to date, and we’ll have 3 Sekiwake for the first time since November by virtue of our champion forcing a promotion from Komusubi with his 12 wins. That means that two Komusubi slots are open; M1w Daieisho (11-4) is a lock for one, while the second is a close call between M2e Hiradoumi (9-6) and M5w Meisei (10-5). Rank-record combination and schedule strength favor Hiradoumi, so he should make his san’yaku debut, unless Meisei’s prior san’yaku experience wins out. Whichever of them isn’t Komusubi is a lock for the top maegashira slot.
What of Ozeki runs, you ask? Officially, the NSK said that Onosato’s run just started, as his 11 wins at M5w in March came at too low a rank to count. Unofficially, they’d probably have to promote him in July with either a yusho or 13+ wins, though anything less would likely mean waiting for September. Abi posted double-digits in san’yaku, so he’s on a run as well (his 9 wins at Komusubi last time mean that mathematically, he could reach the 33 over 3 threshold with 14 wins in Nagoya). And Daieisho’s 11 wins from M1w, while they aren’t officially a start of anything, could serve as a foundation given sufficiently strong performances in July and September. And before anyone asks, no, Kotozakura’s 11-4 jun-yusho is not the start of a tsuna run!
Filling out the Joi
So, M1e is taken care of, and its current occupant, Atamifuji (7-8), who came thisclose to a san’yaku debut, can slide over to M1w. What do we do from there? The next winning record belongs to [checks notes] M7w Mitakeumi (8-7). I expect him to get a very generous promotion. There’s also demoted Sekiwake Wakamotoharu (4-8-3), whose fall could be very gentle indeed. Likewise, the rikishi with losing records between the ranks of M2 and M5 may find themselves treated very leniently.
Division Exchanges
There are 5 rikishi in Juryo who posted records that warrant promotion: the yusho winner and former Sekiwake J6w Wakatakakage (14-1), J3e Endo (12-3), who’ll be making an immediate return after only his 3rd career basho in the second division, J3w Chiyoshoma, who returns after a 4-basho Juryo stint, J5e Kagayaki (11-4), who likewise was last in Makuuchi in September, and J2e Bushozan (9-6), who’s recently been a classic elevator rikishi (too good for Juryo, not good enough for Makuuchi).
Conveniently, 5 top-division incumbents warrant a trip to Juryo. Sadly, one of them is the March champion M6e Takerufuji, whose ankle injury did not heal in time for May. The others are M17e Tsurugisho (3-12), M16e Tomokaze (2-13), M13e Mitoryu (2-9-4) and newcomer M15e Tokihayate (6-9), who lost a de facto demotion playoff to M15w Roga (7-8) on the final day. Two rikishi are on the bubble, but I don’t think they’ll exchange M12w Nishikifuji (5-10) and runner-up J12e Onokatsu (13-2), though one more loss on the part of the former or one more win on the part of the latter might have done it.
Finally, we come to the Makushita-Juryo exchanges, and here things did not work out so neatly. Two rikishi were slated for demotion before the final day: J13w Chiyomaru (4-11) and J13e Oshoumi (5-10). Their places were spoken for by Ms1w Kayo (5-2), who’ll be making his sekitori debut in Nagoya, and yusho winner Ms11e Fujiseiun (7-0), returning to Juryo after an injury-related drop. Two additional incumbents were on the bubble going into Day 15, and they were paired with two promotion hopefuls in direct exchange bouts. Ms2w Nabatame (5-2) earned his Juryo debut by prevailing over just-promoted J14w Kazekeno (7-8), who will have to fight his way back up from Makushita. Ms1e Akua, who entered the day at 3-3, false-started 3 times against J8w Hakuoho (5-6-4), making contact each time and once delivering a slap and driving the Juryo man off the dohyo. After these shenanigans, I was very happy to see Hakuoho counter Akua’s latest kakenage attempt by driving him into the ground with a sukuinage, thereby reaching safety and keeping Akua in the third division.
With no additional openings, four rikishi who had winning records in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone will miss out. The hardest-done-by is Ms3e Kiryuko (5-2), whose rank and record would normally guarantee promotion. The Juryo promotions should be confirmed on Wednesday. The rest of the rankings will be out on July 1, and I’ll try to put up a Crystal Ball post before then. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments!