Yokozuna Runs
Kyushu champion Kotozakura (14-1) is unquestionably a candidate for promotion to the highest rank in January. A second consecutive yusho should seal the deal under almost any imaginable circumstances. A sufficiently strong runner-up performance with a minimum of 12 wins could also do the traick. The runner-up, Hoshoryu (13-2), must win at Hatsu to be promoted, and it’ll probably take a yusho with at least 13 wins.
Ozeki Runs
It is conceivable that Wakamotoharu, with 11 wins at M3 in September and 10 at Komusubi in Kyushu could get promoted with a sufficiently dominant performance in January, but given that 11 wins is his career high, I am not holding my breath.
Sanyaku
There’s little suspense here. Our two Sekiwake will be S1w Daieisho (8-7) and K1e Wakamotoharu (10-5). The two Komusubi slots will go to M3e Abi (11-4) and M2e Wakatakakage (10-5). M6e Takanosho (11-4) is next in line, but it seems highly unlikely that he would force open an extra slot.
Makuuchi <-> Juryo
A lot was on the line on the final day. Bushozan and Shishi were already set to go down, Ryuden lost to join them on the Juryo barge, and a win by Asakoryu was too little, too late to save him given the results in the second division. Sadanoumi and Tokihayate both lost, creating the potential for six exchanges. Five spots are spoken for by Kinbozan, Hakuoho, Kitanowaka, Kagayaki, and Tamashoho, who all won on the final day. Tsurugisho lost, however, tanking his promotion chances. The sixth-best promotion claim belongs to J6w Shiden (10-5), but this will probably not be enough to push down Tokihayate, giving the latter a lucky escape.
Juryo <-> Makushita
Chiyomaru and Onosho will drop out of the sekitori ranks, to be replaced by Hatsuyama and Kiryuko. A loss by Daishoho leaves open the possibility that he could be exchanged with Kotokuzan. As usual, we’ll learn about the promotions to Juryo in a couple of days, while the rest of the banzuke won’t drop until December 23. I should have a full prediction post closer to its release. In the meantime, let me know what you think in the comments.
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I have the same cast of characters for Makuuchi Juryo exchange in my first draft. And indeed I have Tokihayate at M17W. M4 to M8 is not so straightforward so I need to work more on those. Currently I dropped Kirishima to M2E and Shodai to M4W. For the Juryo guys I have Hakuoho (M15E), Kitanowaka (M15W), Kagayaki (M16E), Tamashoho (M16W) and then Kinbozan all the way up at M9E. Anyway, lots more to think about.
I’ll be surprised if Kinbozan ends up that high…
The highest placement from J1 with 12 wins was M8. The last time for a promotion to M9 was 2014. Up to that point M9 or M10 seemed a pretty reasonable expectation, but there has been a dip in placement since. The worst being Kotoshoho last year in Fukuoka, who ended at m14, though there had literally not been any losing records besides the demotees at the bottom.
Don’t think he will go higher than M12 or M13 at best. Wouldn’t even be surprised if he stays behin Onokatsu and Shonannoumi either.
Is Onosho on the way out permanently?
I believe his stable master said something about him focusing on his health rather than rank, so maybe he can get those knees seen to properly and mount a return from the lower divisions?
Given his age, and precedent set by several rikishi in recent years, this seems the most sensible option. Take a year off (at the high end) to recuperate/get treatment, add another year-plus to rise back to the paid ranks, and he’d still be only 30. But he’s also been in the sport for over a decade, near all of that as a sekitori. I don’t see him hanging it up yet when his past has shown he has a solid place amongst the sport’s best unless he just physically can’t come back.
The Daieisho question is really the only one which is hard to answer. If Miyagi had won yesterday it would also have been clear. Maybe they planned that fight against Kotokuzan as decisive for the replacement of Daishoho?
The Daishoho case, of course, not Daieisho. Sorry.
The guys who set up the fights are not the same group as the ones who make up the banzuke, so it doesn’t always line up like that. At least we’ll know in the next 36 hours.
Ah yes, of course, I forgot. Thanks for reminding me.
Usually matchmaking does make sense from that perspective, and I’m really not sure why they didn’t save Miyagi and Kotokuzan to fight Daishoho and Nabatame, respectively, on day 15, even if the banzuke committee didn’t end up treating one or both of these as direct exchange bouts…
I have Takanosho (M1E), Gonoyama (M1W), Kirishima (M2E), Tobizaru (M2W), Atamifuji (M3E), Oho (M3W). After that, I’m stumped. There’s a log jam of 12 rikishi projected between M4 to M9, none of which “deserve” to be higher than M7. Seven of them have losing records. Can you promote someone with only 7 wins?!
Regarding Kinbozan, yeah I can work him in at M13 +/- without causing other issues. Otherwise M10 to M17 seems fairly straightforward.
This is fun.
Nope, can’t promote someone with a losing record except under extreme circumstances like the 2010/2011 scandals. You’re absolutely correct that there’s a giant hole after Oho.
Thanks for the advice. Now I “know” what to do :)
For the M4 to M9 problem, it appears that Chiyoshoma and the 8-7 gang could get healthy promotions, Shodai to M4w?, Ura and Hiradoumi at M5 (minimal demotions) and the 7-8 group could get a minimal demotion of half a rank each. That filled out my first look-see neatly if not very deservedly. It is a tough one to make sense of.
Yeah it was probably a good tournament to have a really bad record, as well as a good outcome for the 8-wins crowd. Definitely some holiday gifts for all those guys.
So, I have my Bansuke – It will be fun to learn from all of you who are more experienced with this to see where I went astray 😊
No need to repeat the top ranks and M1 to M3.
M4 to M9 is crazy. I gave all of the 8-loss guys half-rank demotions. Shodai, Ura & Hiradoumi got only about half the demotions they deserved, mainly because no one was better. The 8-win crowd (Takayasu, Ichiyamamoto, Takarafuji, Tamawashi) all made out like bandits. Chiyoshoma also made out very well, rising to the highest rank since Jan 2022. Let’s see how he fares up there.
In M10-M17 things are much more civilized. Mostly everyone gets what they earned within a half-rank. The exception is Kinbozan, who gets only a modest bump (4.5 ranks vs a 9 win differential) and Oshoma who gets one rank more demotion than expected. Kotoshoho gets the full effect of having the worst record of the Makuuchi survivors. He probably needs to enlist the assistance of Kotozakura to help design a new pre-match game face to scare himself into action. Nishikifuji & Tokihayate remain in the top division mainly because everyone else was worse.
Shodai (M4E), Ura (M4W), Hiradoumi (M5E), Chiyoshoma (M5W), Takayasu (M6E), Ichiyamamoto (M6W), Takarafuji (M7E), Endo (M7W), Mitakeumi (M8E), Roga (M8W), Tamawashi (M9E), Midorifuji (M9W), Meisei (M10E), Churanoumi (M10W), Nishikigi (M11E), Takerufuji (M11W), Onokatsu (M12E), Oshoma (M12W), Shonannoumi (M13E), Hokutofuji (M13W), Kinbozan (M14E), Hakuoho (M14W), Kitanowaka (M15E), Kotoshoho (M15W), Kagayaki (M16E), Tamashoho (M16W), Nishikifuji (M17E), Tokihayate (M17W)
I came up with a lot of your picks, and have to confess that I am not a great picker.
Iksumo is probably the best mind here when it comes to the GTB game.
Don’t lock in your guess too early, you only get one chance to enter.
I believe you can send a later entry if you want to change something, and they’ll replace the earlier one. But entering earlier is a tiebreaker if it comes to that. I usually post my full guess just after the entry deadline 😉
The site says 1 entry per email address. Multiple verified entries throw out all of them, so it’s best to mull over the possibilities until you are satisfied with your results prior to submitting them.
Maybe the site rules are misleading but I promise you can resubmit to update your entry. The rule is only meant to prevent people from submitting multiple guesses.
There is a possibilty of 2 Yokozuna promotions at the same time?
yes, if Hoshoryu wins and Kotozakura is a strong runner up — say like this time, but with the roles reversed
has it happened before? 2 Yokozuna promotions at the same time?
twice in what I’d call the modern era (since 1958): in 1961 and in 1970
Is it just a coincidence that Kotozakura’s grandfather was an Ozeki in the 1970 2 Yokozuna promotion?
26 or more wins from either while getting jun-yusho or yusho in January would create an interesting sitution. Hopefully Terunofuji can attend and keep wrestling through the basho. Terunofuji and all three ozeki without losses after day 12 would be amazing.
We had one Royal Flush (M9W – M11W all with 8-7), and it was only freakin Gonoyama who spoiled having two of them!?! Have we ever had two Royal Flushes before? Anyway, those guys are hard to order..
That’s a tricky thing to look up, you’d have to search the db separately for every set of 5 consecutive ranks…
I am looking forward to promised full prediction post…
Thanks for the reminder; didn’t have much time this time of year, but I just posted the prediction with a brief analysis.