Here’s what to watch for to add some extra spice to Day 15 bouts.
Sanyaku
S1w Daieisho (8-6) will keep his rank. S1e Kirishima (6-8) will lose his and must beat Onosato tomorrow to limit his drop to Komusubi. K1e Wakamotoharu (9-5) should take over the vacant Sekiwake slot. One Komusubi spot has been opened by K1w Shodai (4-10). A loss by Kirishima would open a second, in which case we’ll have M3e Abi (11-3) and M2e Wakatakakage (10-4) at Komusubi, with only their order riding on tomorrow’s results. If Kirishima wins, and Abi ends with a better record than WTK, Abi takes the open spot, while WTK could be considered for an extra one, especially with 11 win. If they end up tied with 11 wins, WTK gets the open slot, and Abi could be considered for an extra one, though his rank would give him a somewhat lower chance.
Makuuchi <-> Juryo
Bushozan and Shishi are guaranteed to go down. Asakoryu could conceivably save himself with a win, but only if Ryuden and all Juryo promotion candidates who have not yet clinched promotion lose. Ryuden could stay with a win, but again only if all the promotion candidates lose. Sadanoumi and Tokihayate each need a Day 15 win for definite safety. Kinbozan and Kitanowaka are assured of quick returns to the top division. Hakuoho has a promotable record, but could still conceivably miss out if he loses tomorrow and Tokihayate, Sadanoumi, Kagayaki, and Tamashoho all win. A minimum of three exchanges is assured, and we could see as many as six if Tokihayate and Sadanoumi lose and Kagayaki, Tamashoho, and Tsurugisho all win.
Juryo <-> Makushita
Chiyomaru and Onosho will drop out of the sekitori ranks, to be replaced by Hatsuyama and Kiryuko. It is conceivable that losses by Daishoho and (less likely) Nabatame could bring up Kotokuzan and (less likely) Akua to replace them. I think Nabatame stays even with a loss, whereas Daishoho with a loss vs. Kotokuzan would be a toss-up.
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It would be amusing if the last spot in makuuchi came down to Ryuden (5-10) and Kagayaki (8-7).
Would Takadagawa get to decide? (I think Ryuden stays based on how they’ve done things recently).
Agree that a lot of IFs are in play for the exchange barge between Makuuchi and Juryo beyond the 3 obvious ones.
Shishi, Asakoryu and Bushozan going back down with Kitanowaka Kinbozan, Kitanowaka and Hakuoho returning is given, all others depend on Senshuraku results.
Ryuden is walking the razors edge as is Sadanoumi. A Kagayaki win will put the pressure on them.
Is Tokihayate safe if he loses?
As I think I say in the post, Tokihayate is not safe with a loss. He and Sadanoumi would be safe with wins, while Ryuden must win and hope for other results to go his way.
Agree with that view on Tokihayate. Would Wakanosho get the nod over either Akua or Kotokuzan? 6-1 at M7 and just outside the Ms5 guaranteed winning record bump-up would seem to be a better chance than the 4-3’s of the others.
there’s a pretty hard line between ms5 and ms6, requiring really unusual circumstances for promotion from below it (short of a 7-0), even though he could well end up ranked ahead of the 4-3’s in makushita
Thank you for this useful observation framework! A lot of kaleidoscopic stuff, outcome will be interesting!
Fascinating, thank you. Now, will the Kyokai agree ?!