The third division is somewhat lighter on talent and excitement that it has been in recent tournaments, but here’s a quick update on the yusho and promotion races. After 5 rounds of bouts, we have only undefeated 5-0 rikishi: Ms6e Kazekeno, Ms31w Hokutomaru, and Ms48w Osanai. The first two go head-to-head on day 11, while Osanai will fight the highest-ranked undefeated Sandanme man, Sd10e Nobehara.

The main goal of wrestlers in upper Makushita is to earn promotion to the salaried ranks. Kazekeno can return to Juryo following his one basho there back in May if he wins out, but is ranked just below the Ms-Ms5 “promotion zone” and so pretty much must go 7-0. In the promotion zone, we have one absent rikishi (Ms1e Asanoyama), three with losing records, and two Ms5’s who are 2-3, so even winning out is unlikely to earn them promotion. Nobody has a winning record yet, but Ms1w Hatsuyama, who won the division in September and missed out on promotion by half a rank, and Ms2e Kiryuko, both 3-2, can get there and put themselves in very strong position with wins tomorrow. Ms2w Miyagi (2-3) must win out, and Ms4e Kotokuzan (3-2) needs to do so as well or hope for excellent banzuke luck if he finishes 4-3.

At the moment, the only certainty in Juryo is the return to Makushita of His Roundness J11w Chiyomaru (0-10), but J10e Onosho (2-8) and new sekitori J13w Kotoeiho (4-6) need to start piling up wins to avoid joining him. For Onosho, this could be the first fall out of the sekitori ranks since 2016. Also not out of the woods are newcomer J13e Wakaikari, who’s rallied to a 5-5 record after starting with 5 losses sandwiched around a fusensho, J14e Nabatame (6-4) and J12e Daiseizan (5-5), each of whom could use two more wins.

While we are here, Bushozan is dropping out of the top division, Shishi, Asakoryu, and Ryuden (!) are in deep trouble, while Nishikifuji and Tokihayate need more wins than losses in the final five days to avoid having to rely on banzuke luck. Working in favor of the incumbents is the fact that only J1w Kinbozan (8-2) looks set for an immediate return to Makuuchi, while all other contenders need at least two more wins, and all except Tsurugisho need 3 or more, to have a strong promotion case.

Higher up the banzuke, Kirishima and Shodai, both 4-6, are at serious risk of vacating their sanyaku slots; the lead candidates to replace them should that happen are Abi, Wakatakakage, and Takanosho.