Apologies for the lack of mid-basho posts; things got in the way. Well, it was much more of a close-run thing than any of us expected just a couple of days ago, but he did it! Congratulations to our sole Yokozuna Terunofuji on taking the yusho and reaching his long-stated career goal of 10 top-division championships. Now that the Nagoya results are in the books, let’s take our customary preliminary look at how they’re likely to reshuffle the rankings.
Juryo-Makushita Exchanges
Since I wasn’t able to provide my usual Makushita updates, let’s start there. The yusho went to Ms2e Daiseizan (7-0), who will make his sekitori debut at Aki. He will be joined by Ms1w Kiryuko (6-1), who was extremely unlucky to miss out on a Juryo debut after Natsu and made certain this time, as well as by Ms3w Oshoumi (5-2), who won his exchange bout with J11e Tochitaikai (5-10) on the final day. So Oshoumi makes an immediate return to the paid ranks after his May demotion, while Tochitaikai drops out after two basho in the second division. Making room for Daiseizan and Kiryuko will be J12w Tsushimanada (1-14) and J14w Nabatame (4-11), whose Juryo debut … did not go well.
Makuuchi-Juryo Exchanges
Unlike the neat picture above, this is very messy. A combination of absences and poor performances left six Makuuchi rikishi with records that could warrant demotion, while only two Juryo rikishi were able to secure strong promotion claims. The two are J1w Onokatsu (9-6) and Juryo champion J8e Shirokuma (12-3), who should add some youth and excitement to the top division when they debut in September. They will replace injury victim M12e Asanoyama (3-2-10) and M17e Nishikifuji (6-9). M15e Chiyoshoma’s final-day loss to Nishikifuji left him with a 5-10 record and very likely headed back to Juryo. His spot would go to J3e Kitanowaka, whose 8-7 record from that rank doesn’t really warrant promotion, but there isn’t a better alternative. Next, we come to another injury victim, M5e Onosho (0-4-11). All seven winless M5 rikishi this century ended up in Juryo, but who is there to bring up? It would have to be either J10e Shishi (11-4) or J6w Tamashoho (9-6), each of whom would have needed two more wins for a proper promotion claim. This’ll be a tough call for the banzuke committee, and Onosho may be fortunate enough to survive. As for the other two men facing potential demotion, the lack of promotion candidates should keep M13w Takarafuji (5-10) and M3e Takayasu (0-2-13) safely in the top division.
Upper Maegashira
The bad news is that all six rikishi ranked M1-M3, and all nine rikishi not named Tobizaru ranked M1-M5, had losing records. However, enough of them went 7-8 or 6-9, and there were sufficient good performances lower down, that filling out this part of the banzuke isn’t too difficult. Our runner-up, M6e Takanosho (12-3), is a shoo-in for the top maegashira slot, unless the banzuke committee decides to go wild and create an extra Komusubi rank for him (as explained below, there are no openings in san’yaku). M4e Tobizaru (9-6) will move up to M1w, the 7-8 trio (Atamifuji, Mitakumi, Shonannoumi) should see minimal if any demotions, I expect the 6-9 duo of Wakamotoharu and Ura to be treated leniently, and kachi-koshi Oho, Shodai, Kotoshoho, Wakatakakage, and Churanoumi will receive generous bumps in rank.
San’yaku
In a rare feat, all five incumbents finished with winning records. This means that S1e Abi (8-7), S1w Onosato (9-6), S2e Kirishima (8-7), K1e Daieisho (8-7) and K1w Hiradoumi (10-5) should keep their ranks; the only question is whether there’ll be any E-W reshuffling based on record. And we’ll have a fourth Sekiwake after O2w Takakeisho (5-10) came up 3 wins short of the 8 he needed to save his Ozeki rank. Like Kirishima this time, he’ll have one chance at Aki to reclaim his rank with double-digit wins, though this seems like a long shot. After failing to hit double-digits, Kirishima is now just a regular Sekiwake, and would have to re-earn Ozeki the hard way. I don’t think Onosato’s 9-6 ends the Ozeki run he started with his 12-3 Natsu yusho, but he’ll need at least 12 wins in September to stake a promotion claim.
Barring a sudden retirement announcement, Terunofuji will make it 3 straight years as the sole East Yokozuna. East Ozeki Kotozakura (10-5) and West Ozeki Hoshoryu (9-4-2) both posted winning records and will maintain their ranks at Aki; Tachiai hopes that Hoshoryu recovers from his injury and is fully fit to fight for the yusho in September. And with that, I think we’re done. Please let me know what you think in the comments.
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As always I already made my guess for the next banzuke to prevent my being too much influenced by your preview. The only obvious difference seems to be that I not only kept Onosho in the top division, but also Chiyoshoma! After all both would belong to M20e according to simple maths.
But M20e is 3 full ranks below the bottom of the division, and Kitanowaka is at least a plausible replacement, which is why I am leaning the way I am.
Yes, of course is M20e Juryo bound. What I meant is that Onosho and Chiyoshoma are equal. So why replace one by Kitanowaka, who‘s J2 isn’t Makuuchi worthy either?
yeah that’s a fair question, I guess it’s because one is M5 and the other is M5, and there’s a plausible replacement for only one, but like I said, it’s messy, and I don’t know how it’ll turn out
The historical track record for 0-15 from M5 is nearly always J1, while 5-10 from M15 can fall much deeper . Might be equal in simple math, but in reality it’s not. I guess there is some sort of invisible wall between M5 and M6, same as between Ms5 and Ms6.
Yes, that is true. 5-10 from M15 tends to land at J3 not J1. And on the other hand a promotion to Makuuchi from J3 with 8-7 has happened a few times (Daieisho and Atamifuji were among those). Therefore, as was to be expected, Iksumo is right and I am wrong.
Very surprisingly I won’t score maximum points at Guess The Banzuke this time…
I don’t think there’s anything more to it than the fact that a zero-win demotion is basically never a full 15-rank drop, but just 12 to 13. (From anywhere in the maegashira ranks, not just high up.) More regular records like 5-10 can receive the full by-the-numbers drop.
So that doesn’t necessarily say anything about how M5 0-15 might be judged relative to M15 5-10, just what would happening to them after the judgement. It does say, however, that Onosho is basically right at the M17/J1 line even if they give him a standard demotion, and it only takes a tiny amount of leniency (not three ranks or whatever) for him to land on the makuuchi side. I’ll be very surprised if they demote him for either Shishi or Tamashoho.
Oosunarashi in 2016, Tomokaze in 2019 and Kotoyuki in 2020 dropped from M3 to J1. While for the first two the banzuke ended at M16, in case of Kotoyuki the last rang was M17w, so those full drops occasionally occur. In Kotoyukis case the promotions were J2e Kotonowaka with 8-7, J4e Nishikigi with 11-4 and J6e Daiamami with 11-4 as well. At least Kotonowaka‘s record isn’t a clear promotion.
This time however I think the promotion candidates are even worse and I agree with Iksumo, that we will probably have 3 only.
I should probably add that when I wrote “I’ll be very surprised if they demote him for either Shishi or Tamashoho” I was specifically only talking about those candidates. I don’t think it’s the most likely scenario, but I can absolutely see Onosho getting dropped for Kitanowaka, and Chiyoshoma hanging on instead. So in order of decreasing likelihood:
only Chiyoshoma down
only Onosho down
neither down
both down
Kitanowaka has IMHO done enough to force somebody down.
Anyway, historically they’ve been more likely to be lenient with “active” zero wins (like Onosho and Takayasu) than full 0-0-15’s, but this hasn’t really been in evidence in their latest decisions anymore, so who knows how they’re rating Onosho’s 0-4-11 against Chiyoshoma (though he didn’t compete the full basho either).
Any chance for Hakuoho to be back to Makuuchi in September?
11-4 from J13 is nowhere near enough for promotion, but it should get him up to J5-J6, so if he has another good tournament (double-digit wins), we could well see him in November.
I hope to see Hakuoho in November. I’m upset that Wakatakakage (yes he is one of my favorites), didn’t receive a Special Prize – Seriously? 11-4, third best record in the basho, not to mention his amazing comeback?
Glad you’re back posting again Iksumo!
I think it has a lot to with expectations and someone with WTK’s pedigree is expected to do that well at M14. I’m not agreeing with this, just thing that’s one major consideration in the deliberations.
…and he had only three opponents who were higher ranked than M10 (which he all beat btw).
…and other than Churanoumi, who got no prize either, he never was in the yusho race.
Therefore there really aren‘t good reasons for a special prize for Wakatakakage imo.
Talking about special prizes: what I don‘t get at all is how they could steal the gino sho from Takanosho. Like Onosato he beat the Yokozuna, he also beat Onosato and he had three more wins than Onosato. And still, only Onosato got the prize!
You mean the shukun sho I think. They like to spread them around, and also not give out to many, and they probably felt like the kanto sho was more appropriate for Takanosho than for Onosato. Obviously, Takanosho was considered for it, since it ended up being awarded to him conditionally on the yusho. There’s a panel that has some NSK people but also members of the media that does the nominations and votes, so presumably he didn’t get enough votes for an unconditional shukun sho; who knows what each member of the committee reasoned. There’s a Dosukoi Sumo Salon episode on special prizes; it’s pretty enlightening.
Thanks for your answer which in itself is enlightening. And still I don‘t get how a prize which is earned by beating the Yokozuna and reaching kachikoshi may be denied to the one who fulfilled that best.
Sorry for the confusing the prize names. I was too lazy to check them, because here it‘s as hot as in the Nagoya venue. Again, too lazy to check the name… Maybe Aichi Prefectural Gymnasium? Anyway, too sticky to write comments (and all the more to fight on the dohyo, I guess).
My take on this is that they wanted to use the prize as incentive for Takanosho to fight hard for the yusho. If he’d gotten the prize with a win over Onosato, they might have thought he could be satisfied with the prize, win-or-lose. It does look very odd compared with Onosato.
Who else is speculating along the lines of “Will Terunofuji play out the year, or will he walk away, intact and on a high note”?
In the winner ceremony on Sunday he said that he‘ll keep on training to get even better!
If there was a successor waiting to take over (both in terms of being stronger than him and being next-yokozuna material), that would make sense. But, he’s still clearly the strongest, even if gets the wobbles occasionally. I guess he’ll wait until he’s not (either through a successor or through knees). But, that time might come soon – Onosato, Hoshoryu and Kotozakura (in order of likelihood) all have that potential.
Hiradoumi is another. Always seems to have hit his ceiling, only for him to have not. I couldn’t be more impressed at his steady trajectory, and he’s flown under the radar for an age (perhaps that will be less so now after this basho). I worry that he’s an injury away from being a juryo mainstay, but could he instead rise even further and be something like an Ama/Harumafuji?
Most pressing of all, does Enho get promoted?
Until today there never has been a 6-1 from Jk13 which didn’t get promoted, the range spanning from Jd95 up to Jd30.
I’d rather see a problem like this, where there are going to be some lucky survivors and promotees, than the occasions when a wrestler with a promotable record finds a “No Vacancies” sign on the maku’uchi door.
I would love to see Chiyoshoma hang on to his top division spot but I couldn’t complain if he didn’t.
Yeah, me too on both counts, but I can’t see it happening for Chiyoshoma..